Posts Tagged ‘World Trade’

Weekly Update 24th – 28th May

Global markets nosedived after German financial regulator introduced a temporary ban on naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of Euro-area government bonds to provide stability to the financial system from the excessive price movements. The move shattered the confidence among investors that the various efforts like 750 bn euro package to tackle the situation are not enough to stem the crisis.

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EU countries efforts to cut down on their deficits by reducing spending & increase in taxes may lead to contraction in the region. The situation poses a serious threat to US & World economy as it could lead to slide in world trade & economic growth.

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According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research(EPFR), investors withdrew $12 billion from European & US equity funds in the week to May 19. In order to tighten the US finance industry regulation, the senate approved a bill to impose restriction on banks proprietary trading & to create a consumer protection agency having powers to write & enforce rule to ban abusive lending. In another development Fed raised the US growth estimates to a range of3.2% to 3.7% this year & lowered forecast for unemployment & inflation. The European crisis has not only hit hard the equity markets but also commodities as well. With the commodity prices coming down especially oil, it has somewhat reduced the inflationary pressures building up in the economies.

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RBI deputy governor Subir Gokaran said “cautious pace is the best way to go and that is the stance,” after the Global economy outlook changes in the last six weeks. One the domestic positive development for the Indian Government that happened was 3G auction. The government managed to garner close to Rs. 70,000 crore, double the amount it anticipated in the budget estimates. This extra money is likely to lift the pressure on the market borrowing and will give some extra room to the government  for the developmental purposes. For the time being the markets are expected to remain in pressure & will eye on the monsoon to gauge how Indian economy will behave in the rest of year as agriculture is the mainstay for the overall development.

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Overall trend of world stock markets is down though in the short term they are oversold and a bounce can be expected in the coming week which would be more of a relief rally. Till the European markets do not stabilize, the recovery might be short lived. One should be cautious in such markets. Nifty faces resistance between 5040-5120 levels and Sensex between 16800-17100 levels.

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Volatility in the global financial markets is expected to calm down in near term which will lead to some recovery in base metals and crude oil. European Union finance ministers pledged to stiffen sanctions on high-deficit countries and ruled out setting up a mechanism to manage state defaults. Bullions may continue to trade on weaker path as decline in safe haven status can keep the prices pressurized.

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Weakness in local currency has curtailed the volatility in bullions in domestic bourses to greater extent. Key economic releases like US GDP will set the course this week for base metals. Bulls may again take center stage in spices while oilseeds counter may try to find direction taking cues from CBOT and BMD. Wheat and Chana can trade in range with marginal buying.

India To Press For Stimulus Package Continuance at G-20 Summit !

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India will seek continuance of the stimulus package that was devised to get the global economy out of the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s at the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh .

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who leads the Indian delegation at the summit being hosted by President Barack Obama, will voice developing countries views that the developed countries should return to the trend growth and stabilization of the banking and financial sectors.

Such measures affects exports, capital flows and investment of the developing economies.

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Indian PM is going to pitch strongly against any attempts at protectionism and advocating reforms of the international financial institutions in this G 20 Summit .

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Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla are among the members of the Indian delegation which attending the summit.

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This Summit will also be attended by world leaders including British Prime Minister, German Chancellor, French President  among others.

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The summit represents 90 per cent of the world’s GDP, 80 per cent of the world trade and two-thirds of humanity.

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The summit is important for emerging economies like India, which have been affected by the global economic crisis not of its making, to tell the world that there was need to continue the stimulus package that was agreed at the Washington summit last November and a decision to pump in USD 1.1 trillion was decided at the London Summit in April last.

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Indian delegation are of view that the continuance of the stimulus package was in the interest of the poor countries and the emerging economies and developed economies should not adopt any strategy to exit from it.

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India will voice strongly the need for avoiding the temptation to resort to protectionism by the developed countries under the present crisis.

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World Trade to Slip by 11%; More Trouble for Exporters :(

World trade down

The International trade in 2009 is estimated to decline by 11 per cent in real terms and by more than 20 per cent in current dollars (terms), United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report said on Monday.

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This seems to a bad news for the Indian exporters due to the worsening of the global merchandise outlook.

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There was a fall in demand from major developed countries like US and European Union due to the global recession.

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The exports of India stood in the negative zone for the tenth month in a row since October 2008.

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The exports during April-July period of this year, dropped by over 31 per cent.

However, earlier, the World Trade Organisation had estimated the global trade to be slipping by nine per cent in 2009.

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World trade slowed down in 2007 and has been shrinking at a fast pace since November 2008, in both volume as well as value terms.

The trade volume decelerated first in the United States and other developed countries, the report said.

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On the top of this, the report also stated that as the crisis is global, the reliance on exports offers no easy way out, since trade is expected to fell by about 11 per cent in real terms and any expansion of new trade requires a recovery of consumption and investment somewhere in the world.

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