Posts Tagged ‘US’

Weekly Update 26th – 30th April 2010

Domestic markets started the week on a negative note on the back of the Greek debt issues and Goldman Sachs fraud issues, but managed to close in the positive terrain supported by firm US markets in line with less than expected hike in Policy Rates & Cash Reserve Ratio by RBI to tame the inflation; Policy rates and CRR increased by 25 bps each. The food price index rose 17.65% in the 12 months to April 10, marginally higher than an annual rise of 17.22% in the previous week. Moreover IMF announcement of India`s growth at 8.5% for the calendar 2011 boosted the sentiments.

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Additionally, announcement of government recapitalization of PSU banks stimulated banking sector and banking stocks were among the major gainers of the week. Good corporate numbers, expectation of good monsoon together with buying by foreign institutions kept the momentum intact for the rest of the week. Going forward market participants globally would be closely watching G20 finance chiefs plan to withdraw economic stimulus as the recovery strengthens.

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The IMF this week said that rising government debt is one of the biggest threats to the world economy.

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Forecast of normal monsoon season by Indian Meteorological department may keep the sentiments positive in the coming week but volatility may rise ahead of the expiry. On the global front, the UK’s economy grew at a slower than anticipated pace in the first quarter. In US, sales of new homes surged by 27 percent in March and orders for most durable goods climbed, indicating the U.S. economy is speeding ahead into the second quarter. Greece troubles that kept the markets jittery especially for the payments approaching in the month of May came to an end after it said that it has sought a relief aid from the European Union to save it from a default.

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US stock markets kept the rally intact which held the other world markets and did not let them fall.

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Shanghai remained under pressure as commodities saw some pressure and profit booking at higher levels. Indian stocks are seeing more strength in cash stocks and banking stocks. Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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This week is full of event risk, especially from US economy side. Gradually, commodity is retreating from the higher levels but it will be too early to say that it is giving a clear indication for the approaching time. But yes, upside is limited.

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Negative expectation of US GDP figure for the first quarter may hammer the prices. If dollar index trades above the level of 82 then it would keep gold to be in sideways territory. Copper saw three weeks nonstop downside and it is expected to see more downside. Range trading in crude oil is indicating the saturation at the higher levels and market needs big news to see further upside..

Commodity versus Dollar Index: The Myths and Facts

Dollar index has noticed terrific movements. The perfect time to sell commodities! Does this thumb rule always works?  Well, let’s find out the myths and facts …

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The USDX is a trade-weighted basket of the US dollar versus other major currencies. Sometime volatility in dollar index can be attributed to the major movements in other currencies. Here lets go with an example.

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USDX has seen around 23% rise in just over 4 months. It was the biggest move the USDX has ever made over such a short span in this index in entire history! For this the strength of USD is not counted rather the weakness of other major currencies amid some improvement in US data’s are taken into consideration. At the same time, commodities could not see steep fall in the prices due to seasonality. It happens many times. Yes, I agree that dollar index give impact on the prices, sooner or later, but, remember, as a secondary driver not as primary.

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Return Of Various Commodities and Dollar Index From 2000-2010(In %age)


Chart 1 reveals the secondary nature of the dollar’s role in commodities prices. During the secular bull run between 2000 to 2010, commodities gave incredible performance. It gained between the wide ranges of 64% to 410%. On the contrary, dollar index lost around 23%. It is showing that supply and demand far outweighed the dollar.

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Let’s find another answer to the question. Why to watch dollar index while trading in commodities?  What psychological impact does dollar index have on commodity?

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It is in fact very complicated to synthesize fundamentals into tradable whole as in many commodities credibility of data is questionable and data comes on wide intervals. Other factors that give impact on the prices are not easily reachable to all traders. It is also true that commodities fundamentals develop gradually and cannot change overnight and thus it is unable to give massive moves in a short span of time. Many times  price movements in commodities is sentiment  news driven.

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Here dollar index gain importance, as transaction of many commodities are done in terms of USD worldwide, hence any fluctuation in USD gives significant impact on the commodity prices. Moreover, the dollar’s levels are always available in real-time and consequently it is uncomplicated watching the movements of USD to game commodities rather than exploring into their fundamentals. However, we also cannot deny that in a particular period dollar index becomes the primary driver of commodity.

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Price movements of CRB and Dollar index (2000-2010)


Source: SMC                                                          Chart 2

Chart 2 is showing negative correlation between USDX and CRB but percentage of volatility is more in CRB. Even in 2009, CRB recovered by whopping 20% whereas dollar index only fell by 5%.

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As on whole USDX has proportionately negative correlation with commodities but it is not the main driver. Nevertheless, sometime relationship between dollar index and commodities are positive. For example; in the time period of December 1998 to September 2000 relationship between crude oil and USDX was positive for a long period. Many times commodities and USDX move in similar direction in perception of the health of the global economy. Fear and uncertainty surrounding the global economy stimulate safe haven buying in both.

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Concluding with the view that each commodity has its own fundamentals, demand and supply profile, which drive its prices. Though, the secondary driver, dollar index often give impact on the commodity prices significantly. Hence, it is advisable that take it as a significant indicator, but rely on seasonality and own fundamentals of commodity before the investment of your money.

INDIAN ECONOMY – GAINING STRENGTH Final Part :0

Thank you friends for viewing the first part. Now i am posting the final part here enjoy:)

4.Fresh Investments – Infrastructure being one of the key thrust areas on government agenda would continue to see large investments coming in going ahead. Even the corporate are expected to continue with the capacity additions in the light of huge anticipated demand.

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After the sharpest decline in more than 70 years, world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, according to WTO. Exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of independent States) should rise by around 11% as the world emerges from recession. This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade – the largest such decline since world war II . Should trade continue to expand at its current pace, the economists predict, it would not take much of the time to surpass the peak level of 2008 in terms of the volume growth.

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Coming back to India front, the continued demand revival in major markets such as the US and European Union, led exports to remain in the positive territory for the fourth consecutive month with shipments in February growing by 34.8% to $16.09 billion from $11.94 billion during February 2009. India’s Imports too saw a growth of 66.4% to $25.05 billion from $15.06 billion in the corresponding period. Cumulative value of imports for the period April, 2009- February, 2010 showed a degrowth of 13.5% to $248.04 billion from $287.09 billion in the corresponding period as a result of both lower international crude oil prices and slowdown in domestic economic activity.

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India’s two-way trade (merchandize exports plus imports), as proportion of GDP is close to 35%. Now, with the expected improvement in the global trade it would further give a fillip to the economic growth.

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The services sector contributes around 65% to GDP. The lead indicators of service sector activity show that, services such as tourist arrivals, cargo handled by seaports and airports, and passengers handled by international terminals which are dependent on external demand are showing recovery with the improvement in global climate. However, services dependent on domestic demand have exhibited a robust and steady growth during 2009-2010, so far.

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In sum, the expected normal monsoon, buoyancy in industrial production & services suggests continuation of growth momentum. With the fiscal deficit being addressed by the government with large focus on infrastructure spending, improvement in corporate sentiments with respect to capital spending & RBI taking steps to withdraw monetary accommodations in a calibrated way is expected to take economic growth back to 9% levels.

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Stay tuned for more update like this :)

Weekly Update 19th – 23rd April 2010

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, domestic markets ended in the negative terrain in the week gone by on the concerns over interest rate tightening by the RBI in its monetary policy scheduled on 20th April coupled with weak cues from the Asian markets.

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Moreover increase in unemployment numbers in US and China’s measures to cool its real estate market raised the uncertainty over the global economic growth. Now, Investors are much wary over the signs of overheating in China as its economy grew almost 12%, the biggest expansion since 2007, Industrial production grew 18.1% in March & retail sales increased 18%. Closer home IIP numbers for the month of February grew by 15.1% as against an annual gain of 16.7% in January, and 17.6% in December. While India’s inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surprisingly stayed almost unchanged in March at 9.90% as compared to 9.89% in February. However, it is expected that after the strong Industrial numbers, improving trade, healthy credit off take in the last fortnight of last financial year & high Inflation, RBI may take steps to suck liquidity by increasing Cash Reserve Ratio & give signals of higher interest rates to the banking system & industry as well by increasing both policy rates. The other concern emerging for the manufacturing growth is appreciating rupee.

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As a major proportion of manufactured goods are meant for exports, the rise in domestic currency will arrest exporters’ margin & may result in lower export.

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FII’s also were a bit cautious to actively participate in the market ahead of RBI’s policy review. In the current CY, FIIs have so far pumped in more than $5.42 billion, while in the month of April; they have been net buyers at $ 1.05 billion in the Indian markets. Expectation of the good corporate results is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. World stocks & commodity markets fell across the board after the revelation of SEC announcing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sach’s. This incident is likely to have its effect on the markets in the coming week.

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After 9 weeks of continuous rally in Indian stock markets, the rally ended last week after Nifty closed down 1.85% for the week. With world stock markets including the commodities taking a sharp correction on Friday, it seems that temporarily a top has been made in the market and one should be careful.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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On the commodity front, a range trading is expected in metals and energy.

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Since last few weeks, bullions and base metals have been trading in upper zone but are unable to break the resistance. Once they break their resistance then only, traders’ can see a new trading range. Back at home, sharp appreciation in rupee is also locking the movements. Data from European Union is important for the week apart from PPI and housing data of US. If improvement continues then only commodities will trade in upper trading range or vice a versa. Agro commodities could be more volatile ahead of expiry of April contract on NCDEX. In agro commodities, guar could see further rise on improved fundamentals as well as technical.

GUAR…… “U” TURN AHEAD

Guar gum enjoys prominent position in the exports of minor forest products. India exports guar gum in various forms to all parts of the globe. More than 80 per cent of exports of minor forest products are accounted for by guar gum.

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The government has appointed Shellac and Forest Products Export Promotion Council (SHEFEXIL) as the canalising agency for export of guar gum to Europe. “Guar gum exports to European Union, originating in or consigned from India and intended for animal or human consumption have been allowed subject to endorsement by SHEFEXIL.

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Around 90% of the total Guar Gum production is exported to countries like China,US, Germany and France.

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Sowing and Harvesting Season….

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The crop is sown from June and extends up to July. It is harvested from October and the peak arrival time continues till the end of December.

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Guar complex mostly follows the seasonal pattern in its movement, but quite volatile during March- September. As given in the above chart, guar seed prices tend to remain low during January, June and September months. The price movement starts its bull run from February, the time of lean arrivals & reaches its peak in the month of July. Later on, during August the reports of sowing come into scenario which affects the prices. The arrival pattern during October & December further brings the prices down.

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The early south- west monsoon forecasts and progress of monsoon from June to September influence the price movement. Later on, arrival pattern and demand from stockiest affect the prices.

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The Road Ahead: Considering the supply side in the current crop season i.e. October 2009-September 2010, production is estimated to be lower at around 3-3.5 million bags compared with 8.5-9 million bags in 2008-09. Carryover stocks of last year for Guar seed stands at around 3-3.5 million bags. Thus, total supplies for 2009-10 stands at around 6 million bags, which is far below the total consumption of 7-7.5 million bags. Guar gum stock with the stockiest currently stands at around 150,000 tonnes. Guar futures have already discounted by almost 15-18% since the beginning of the year due to slowed down off-takes by millers. They were not buying Guar seed at high prices as they have huge stocks of Gum & also due to huge disparity in the price of seed and gum.

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However, after the futures finishing their correction phase, the current scenario signifies that the stockiest have started stocking Guar seed at the current low prices on expectations that the prices would rise further due to a drop in output. However, further price rally would depend on the overseas demand for Guar gum which is expected to pick up which may lead prices to breach the level of 5100 in medium term.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

Wise Money Weekly Update of The Market (Week: 25th – 29th January)

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly view of the Indian as well as of the Global markets and latest global business and industry updates..

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Wise Money Weekly Update of The Market (Week: 25th - 29th January)

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A sell-off in global stocks, disappointment from key corporate earnings like L&T, possibilities of further monetary tightening by China and US president‘s proposal to put new restrictions on big banks weighed heavily on the domestic markets.

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In the forthcoming week, domestic markets are expected to remain volatile as traders roll positions in the derivative segment from January 2010 series to February 2010 series.

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Markets will also take cue from monetary policy which is scheduled to come out on January 29.

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Though tightening is largely expected by way of Cash Reserve Ratio hike as RBI has already started the first phase of ‘exit’ in its October 2009 policy statement but there is a belief if the RBI sucks out some liquidity, it may not raise interest rates, since liquidity is excess in the system.

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The Indian food price inflation is largely due to supply constraints.

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But going ahead anticipation of decline in food price inflation & lower borrowing from government in future because of huge money raising plans through disinvestment are some of the factors that are likely to determine RBI stance on increasing policy rates.

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The widely watched wholesale price index rose an annual 7.3% in December 2009, its highest since November 2008 and accelerating from a 4.8 % rise in November 2009.

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Food prices rose 16.81 % in the 12 months to 9 January 2010, easing from nearly 20 % in early December.

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On the Global economic front, GDP of China returned to double-digit growth in the fourth quarter of 2009 at 10.7 percent, and over the full year GDP surpassed the government’s target of eight percent.

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Back at home, domestic economy, which grew at 7.9% in the September quarter, is expected to grow 6-6.5% in the December quarter.

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The World Bank has raised its forecast at 2.7% for global growth in 2010.

Moreover it has raised its forecast for US growth in 2010 to 2.5% growth, after predicting 1.8% in June.

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Japan’s gross domestic product will expand 1.3% this year, more than the 1% predicted in June.

The euro area’s economy is forecasted to grow 1%, compared with the earlier estimate of 0.5% expansion.

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Stay Tuned for More on this..

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly view of the Indian as well as of the Global markets and latest global business and industry updates.

Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

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Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC

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Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC


Cotton production world-wide is likely to rise by over 8% in the 2010-11 season on higher output in the US and China following high prices, a global cotton body says.

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The global cotton production in the 2010-11 season (October-September ) is projected at 24.1 million tonnes (mt), up 8.5% from 22.2 mt estimated for the ongoing 2009-10 season.

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Above figures were put forth by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

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According to ICAC, cotton production in China is likely to surge by a million tonne to 7.7 million tonne, while in the US it may climb by one tenth to 3 million tonne.

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However in India, production estimates are not changed much from 2009-10 season, it said.

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ICAC had earlier said that India is estimated to harvest 5.3 mt of fibre in this season.

Currently, harvesting is in progress across the country.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can read about the news of fertiliser ministry urging the finance ministry to release the due subsidy payments and the decline of the natural rubber production rate, last year.

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Fertiliser ministry too seeks subsidy payments:

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The fertilisers ministry has urged the finance ministry to urgently resolve the liquidity problems faced by the country’s fertiliser industry following no payment of subsidy dues by the government since October 2009.

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The demand for subsidy payments comes even as the government is trying to resolve the issue of subsidy to petroleum companies.

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Industry estimates are that subsidy /concession for the October-March 2010 period will be around Rs 30,000 crore plus, bringing up the total subsidy for the fiscal to well over Rs 70,000 crore.

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The centre has allocated only Rs 49,980.25 crore towards fertiliser subsidy for 2009-10 (BE), including carryovers from 2008-09.

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The industry has argued that non-import of urgently needed raw materials and inputs may be jeopardized if the matter of the subsidies is not tackled on priority.

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Making matters worse, according to procedure, the industry cannot expect any further payment until the third supplementary to the Budget due only in end March.

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Rubber Output declines on dry weather:

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Natural rubber production in India, the world’s fourth-biggest producer, dropped 7.3 per cent last year after dry weather lowered yields in the main growing region, the state-owned Rubber Board said.

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The driest monsoon since 1972 lowered latex yield in rubber plantation in the southern Indian state of Kerala, Chandran said.

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Production also dropped because of  intense harvesting and ageing plantations,  Rubber Board Chairman Sajen Peter said on November 4.

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Stockpiles jumped 26 per cent to 261,400 tonnes at the end of December after exports last year slumped to 14,752 tonnes from 77,004 tons in 2008.

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