Posts Tagged ‘unemployment’

Weekly Update 7th – 11th June

Unlike developed economies market that closed in red, our market closed in the positive on the back of robust GDP growth of 7.4% in the year ending March 2010 driven by solid rebound in manufacturing activity.

.

Auto & Cement sales numbers also joyed the markets. Good monsoon which is likely to be in range of 98% of the long term average will help in entailing inflation and will boost rural economy, a major factor for the overall growth of the economy kept the markets on a strong foot in the week gone by.

.

On the contrary, bad news continued from the rest of the world. Export led recovery is losing momentum in Japan. Manufactures are planning to increase production at a slower pace in the coming months in view of the cut in European government expenditures that may damp sales of Japanese goods over time. Unemployment is increasing and job prospects are worsening together with cuts in household spending.

.

Euorpean region economy which is struggling to gather strength after the debt crisis and has sought to cut expenditure got another jolt after Hungary said its economy is in a “very grave” situation, reigniting concern the region’s debt crisis is spreading. Hungary Prime Minister said that talk of a default is “not an exaggeration” because a previous administration “manipulated” figures.

.

The country was bailed out with a 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) aid package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in 2008. U.S. markets saw Indices dropping to four months low after the lower than forecast payroll numbers for the month of May. However the positive news in the payroll survey was in earnings, the workweek, and production hours. Wage inflation picked up with a 0.3 percent rise in May, following a 0.1 percent advance the month before.

.

The average workweek for all workers edged up to 34.2 hours from 34.1 hours in April. The gain point out to future hirings and suggests increase in industrial production for the month.

.

Overall trend of world stock markets is still down though the markets tried to take a recovery intra week but the US and European markets spoiled the party.

.

Base metal commodities did not bounce even slightly which went to show that stock markets tried a recovery without participation of industrial commodities.

.

Nifty faces resistance between 5150-5180 levels and Sensex between 17200-17400 levels.

.

Sentiments are still very fragile and investors are very watchful in commodity.

.

Technically, base metals and energy appear oversold; hence they may generate some lower level buying. However, one should not judge it as a major one sided rally in these commodities as fears on European economy is still hovering. Even, negative outcome of economic data’s from various economies is further indicating slowdown in economic activities. If mercury goes high further and we see further decline in crude and other inventories in US, then it will stimulate buying in crude oil. Natural gas has already seen good short covering in the prices in past few weeks, can witness more buying for the same reason.

Weekly Update 24th – 28th May

Global markets nosedived after German financial regulator introduced a temporary ban on naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of Euro-area government bonds to provide stability to the financial system from the excessive price movements. The move shattered the confidence among investors that the various efforts like 750 bn euro package to tackle the situation are not enough to stem the crisis.

.

EU countries efforts to cut down on their deficits by reducing spending & increase in taxes may lead to contraction in the region. The situation poses a serious threat to US & World economy as it could lead to slide in world trade & economic growth.

.

According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research(EPFR), investors withdrew $12 billion from European & US equity funds in the week to May 19. In order to tighten the US finance industry regulation, the senate approved a bill to impose restriction on banks proprietary trading & to create a consumer protection agency having powers to write & enforce rule to ban abusive lending. In another development Fed raised the US growth estimates to a range of3.2% to 3.7% this year & lowered forecast for unemployment & inflation. The European crisis has not only hit hard the equity markets but also commodities as well. With the commodity prices coming down especially oil, it has somewhat reduced the inflationary pressures building up in the economies.

.

RBI deputy governor Subir Gokaran said “cautious pace is the best way to go and that is the stance,” after the Global economy outlook changes in the last six weeks. One the domestic positive development for the Indian Government that happened was 3G auction. The government managed to garner close to Rs. 70,000 crore, double the amount it anticipated in the budget estimates. This extra money is likely to lift the pressure on the market borrowing and will give some extra room to the government  for the developmental purposes. For the time being the markets are expected to remain in pressure & will eye on the monsoon to gauge how Indian economy will behave in the rest of year as agriculture is the mainstay for the overall development.

.

Overall trend of world stock markets is down though in the short term they are oversold and a bounce can be expected in the coming week which would be more of a relief rally. Till the European markets do not stabilize, the recovery might be short lived. One should be cautious in such markets. Nifty faces resistance between 5040-5120 levels and Sensex between 16800-17100 levels.

.

Volatility in the global financial markets is expected to calm down in near term which will lead to some recovery in base metals and crude oil. European Union finance ministers pledged to stiffen sanctions on high-deficit countries and ruled out setting up a mechanism to manage state defaults. Bullions may continue to trade on weaker path as decline in safe haven status can keep the prices pressurized.

.

.

Weakness in local currency has curtailed the volatility in bullions in domestic bourses to greater extent. Key economic releases like US GDP will set the course this week for base metals. Bulls may again take center stage in spices while oilseeds counter may try to find direction taking cues from CBOT and BMD. Wheat and Chana can trade in range with marginal buying.

UNCTAD Projects 5% Growth for India :(

Indian economy

The UN body United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Monday projected a lower growth of five per cent for India in 2009 as against Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Government”s forecast of more than six per cent in the current financial year.

😦

Releasing its “Trade and Development Report 2009” in New Delhi, UNCTAD report said that it expected Indian economy to grow by five per cent in 2009.

The economy grew by 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 fiscal while in the first quarter of the 2009-10 financial year the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at 6.1 per cent.

🙂

However, the UNCTAD report listed India as the second fastest growing economy after China, in the backdrop of the global economy set to shrink by 2.7 per cent in 2009.

🙂

“The economic winter is far from over: tumbling profits in the real economy, previous over-investment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future.

Even economies that will grow this year, such as those of China and India, are slowing significantly compared to previous years. The crisis is unprecedented in its depth and breadth leaving virtually no country unscathed,” it said.

😦

Further, the report said that improvement of certain financial indicators reached in the first quarter of 2009 as well as falling interest rate spreads on emerging-market debt and corporate bonds and the rebound in securities and commodity prices were seen as green shoots of economic recovery.

🙂

UNCTAD has said the growth rate of developed nations is expected to contract by 4.1 per cent in 2009, while it is likely to decelerate to 1.3 per cent in 2009 from 5.4 per cent in 2008 for developing countries.

😦

The UN body United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) on Monday projected a lower growth of five per cent for India in 2009 as against Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Government”s forecast of more than six per cent in the current financial year.

Releasing its “Trade and Development Report 2009” in New Delhi, UNCTAD report said that it expected Indian economy to grow by five per cent in 2009. The economy grew by 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 fiscal while in the first quarter of the 2009-10 financial year the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at 6.1 per cent. However, the UNCTAD report listed India as the second fastest growing economy after China, in the backdrop of the global economy set to shrink by 2.7 per cent in 2009.

“The economic winter is far from over: tumbling profits in the real economy, previous over-investment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future. Even economies that will grow this year, such as those of China and India, are slowing significantly compared to previous years. The crisis is unprecedented in its depth and breadth leaving virtually no country unscathed,” it said.

Further, the report said that improvement of certain financial indicators reached in the first quarter of 2009 as well as falling interest rate spreads on emerging-market debt and corporate bonds and the rebound in securities and commodity prices were seen as green shoots of economic recovery.

UNCTAD has said the growth rate of developed nations is expected to contract by 4.1 per cent in 2009, while it is likely to decelerate to 1.3 per cent in 2009 from 5.4 per cent in 2008 for developing countries.