Posts Tagged ‘unemployment rate’

US Economy to Surge Up in 2010 : Economists

World Largest Economy to Expand in 2010

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Market forecasters and analysts have put forth the view that US economy will most probably turn in its best performance this year since 2004 owing to the factor that companies have increased the investment and hiring.

With the increase in the spending of perks, also, it seems a near probability.

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Many US economists have  said that the world’s largest economy may expand 3-4% in 2010.

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As per the top economists, the rebound in stocks and rising incomes will prompt Americans to do what they do best — consume.

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Faced with dwindling inventories and growing demand, companies will soon become confident the expansion will be sustained.

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Market experts and economists believe that Household spending would pick up the steam as US economy would move into the second half of 2010.

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The overall picture for 2010 will be an economy growing rapidly enough to bring down the unemployment rate to an average of 9.6%.

The rate will reach about 9% by the end of 2010, major economists quoted.

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US employers expect to hire more new workers in 2010 than they did in 2009, a sign the US recession may be easing its grip, a research showed.

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One-fifth of employers plan to add full-time, permanent employees this year, up from 14% in 2009, according to an online job site that surveyed considerable number of hiring managers and HR professionals.

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Just 9% said they plan to cut headcount in 2010, down from 16% in 2009, according to the nationwide survey.

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The number of employers who say they’re going to add full-time workers is up from last year, and that is very good news. There’s definitely an uptick.

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

 

Topic is ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”.

Here, we would go through the Brief of like what are Economic Events & Indicators and important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators.

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ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”

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Economic Events & Indicators are statistics that precede an economic event.

 

The goal is to track the economy & derive a forecast for future performance.

 

Economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and to move prices of commodities futures as well as the financial markets including Forex.


Tools of Construction: This would include separate sections of statistical methods including

– Calculating indices and re-basing them,

– Differences between arithmetic and geometric averages,

– Standard deviations,

– Regression analysis,

– Correlation and causation,

– Margins of error in statistics calculations and

– What this means for interpretation, subsequent revisions and why they happen.

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Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries.

 

Examples : unemployment rate,  housing starts,  Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation),  Consumer Leverage Ratio,  industrial production,  bankruptcies,  Gross Domestic Product,  broadband internet penetration,  retail sales,  stock market prices,  money supply changes etc;

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The important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators are like:

– Bureau of Labor Statistics,

– Census of Construction Industries,

– Bureau of Economic Analysis &

– Reserve Bank.

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The value of the indicator data is considered important if it presents new information, or is instrumental to drawing conclusions which couldn’t be drawn under other reports or data.

 

Each indicator is marked with “H”-“M”-“L” (High-Medium-Low), according to its level of importance, as commonly considered.

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Next Blog we would try to know about the classified categories of Economic indicators in details and what is Time Era.

Stay Tuned for more and more on this 🙂

 

However For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Wheat Sowing Starts, to Gather Pace After Cane Fields Vacated

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Major Agri-Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

 

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated:

Sowing of wheat, the biggest foodgrain grown during the rabi season, has started in some parts of the country.

The crop has been planted in around 25.7 lakh hectare till November 5, almost 9.4% less than the same period last year.

Though wheat sowing has got off to a slow start this year, but still there is not much concern as the delay is mainly due to late harvesting of kharif crops.

Sowing of rapeseed has also started on a weak note and till Thursday, around 3.48 lakh hectares of land has been brought under the crop as against 6.65 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that Mentha oil futures have turned weak and Corn and soybeans have fell for the third straight day.

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Mentha oil futures turn weak:

Mentha oil futures prices fell by 0.30 per cent today as traders indulged in profit-booking at higher prices amid fall in demand in the spot market.

Increased arrivals from producing belts in Uttar Pradesh also put pressure on the prices.

At the MCX counter, mentha oil for November contract declined by 0.30 per cent to Rs 533.60 a kg clocking business volume in 201 lots.

Similarly, mentha oil for delivery in December contract eased by 0.26 per cent to Rs 540.20 a kg in business turnover in 53 lots.

Fall in mentha oil prices was mostly due to profit-taking by speculators and subdued trend in spot markets.

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Corn, Soybeans Fall as Warm, Dry Weather May Speed U.S. Harvest:

Corn and soybeans fell for the third straight day on speculation that warm, dry weather will hasten U.S. harvesting, boosting supplies for food and feed producers.

Weather conducive to field work is expected across the Midwest in the next 15 days.

About 49 percent of U.S. soybeans and 75 percent of the corn remained to be gathered as of Nov. 1, according to government estimates.

Grain and oilseed markets also fell on reduced investment demand for raw materials as an inflation hedge.

The rising unemployment rate is not good news for demand.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 9.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $3.67 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The decline pared the week’s gain to 0.3 percent, the fourth increase since Oct. 2.

Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

US Recession has Ended, Economy Growing Again : Economists

US Recession has Ended, Economy Growing Again

US Recession has Ended, Economy Growing Again

The worst US recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labour market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy’s recovery, according to a survey released this month.

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The survey released by the National Association of Business Economists found that  80% of the respondents believed the economy was growing again after four straight quarters of declines.

Experts believe that the recession has ended, but that the economic recovery is likely to be slow.

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The current recession that started in December 2007 is the longest and deepest since the 1930s.

It was triggered by the collapse of the US housing market and the ensuing global credit crisis.

The NABE survey, conducted in September, predicted real GDP growth expanding at a 2.9% pace over the second half of this year.

Output for the whole of 2009 is expected to contract 2.5% and next year, rebound to 2.6%.

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Much of the anticipated recovery was seen driven by businesses rebuilding their inventories after aggressively reducing unwanted stocks of unsold goods to match weak demand.

Investment in the residential market would also add to growth, with most respondents in the survey convinced that housing market downturn was close to coming to an end.

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The survey predicted that the unemployment rate would rise to 10% in the first quarter of 2010 and edge down to 9.5% by the end of that year.

The labor market was not expected to regain most the jobs destroyed in the current recession until 2012 or beyond.

However, the weak labour market would continue to slow down the recovery.

Labour market slack, combined with weak wage growth, meant inflation would not be an obstacle to the economic recovery.

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US Economists feel Positive, says Worst is Behind :)

Worst is behind :)

Among the world’s large economies, UK, which is the seventh largest and Italy, the tenth, remain in recession, like the US.

The UK economy shrunk 0.8% in the second quarter, while Italy’s was down 0.5%.

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Unlike in the UK, however, economists in the US believe the worst may be behind them.

‘‘It’s quite possible, though not certain, that retrospectively, we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August, may be September,’’ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman was quoted as saying.

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There is evidence that his is not undue optimism.

The pace of job losses in the US slowed more than forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in more than a year.

US GDP also shrank by just 0.3% (equivalent to an annualized 1%) in the seconnd-quarter after a 6.4% drop in the previous three months.

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That explains why US Federal Reserve is willing to bet that the nosedive the economy had witnessed in recent months is behind it.

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Over the last two years, the US has witnessed its worst financial crisis in decades, but that could be ending, which is good news for the world since it accounts for a fifth of global GDP.

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France and Germany also announced unexpected returns to the growth path, which means that four of the world’s five largest economies and six of the top 10 are now not in recession.

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Adding to the sense of optimism, the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, saying that the world’s largest economy was showing signs of levelling out.

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Among the five largest economies of the world, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars — which is more of an apples to apples comparison — China and India are already growing at healthy rates, although lower than their own pace for the last few years.

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Japan too has climbed out of recession and so has Germany.

These economies and the US account for 47% of world GDP in PPP terms.

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Among the world’s other large economies, Brazil is also now no longer in recession having grown by 1.5% in the second quarter.

Among the world’s large economies, UK, which is the seventh largest and Italy, the tenth, remain in recession, like the US. The UK economy shrunk 0.8% in the second quarter, while Italy’s was down 0.5%.

Unlike in the UK, however, economists in the US believe the worst may be behind them. ‘‘It’s quite possible, though not certain, that retrospectively, we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August, may be September,’’ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman was quoted as saying.

There is evidence that his is not undue optimism. The pace of job losses in the US slowed more than forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in more than a year. US GDP also shrank by just 0.3% (equivalent to an annualized 1%) in the seconnd-quarter after a 6.4% drop in the previous three months.

That explains why US Federal Reserve is willing to bet that the nosedive the economy had witnessed in recent months is behind it. Over the last two years, the US has witnessed its worst financial crisis in decades, but that could be ending, which is good news for the world since it accounts for a fifth of global GDP.

Some light showed up at the end of the recession tunnel on Wednesday as France and Germany announced unexpected returns to the growth path, which means that four of the world’s five largest economies and six of the top 10 are now not in recession.

Adding to the sense of optimism, the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, saying that the world’s largest economy was showing signs of levelling out. Both France and Germany had been predicted by most economists to face a decline of about 0.3% in their GDPs for the second quarter (April-June) of 2009, but they surprised themselves and the rest of the world by announcing that they’ve actually recorded growth of 0.3% each.

Among the five largest economies of the world, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars — which is more of an apples to apples comparison — China and India are already growing at healthy rates, although lower than their own pace for the last few years. Japan too has climbed out of recession and so has Germany. These economies and the US account for 47% of world GDP in PPP terms.

The Eurozone as a whole is also now projected to have contracted by just 0.1% compared to the 2.5% fall in GDP in the first quarter (January-March). The growth rates reported by Germany and France may seem like nothing to get excited about, but considering that German GDP shrunk by 3.5% in the first quarter and France’s by 1.3%, it is quite a smart turnaround.

Among the world’s other large economies, Brazil is also now no longer in recession having grown by 1.5% in the second quarter.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS – A Key Factor in Currency Trading : Part 1

Economic Indicators – A Key Factor In Currency Trading

Economic indicators are the most concerning part of the currency trading which are released by various agencies of the government or private sectors.

These are published on a regularly scheduled basis which helps market observers to track the pulses of an economy.

They are hardly ignored by anyone who is the participant of the financial markets.

Economic indicators are procyclic and their movement, are directly proportional to the trend of economic performances.

With so many people poised to react to the same information, economic indicators in general have tremendous potential to generate volume and push the sentiments of the people to move prices in the markets.

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Tracking the calendar of economic indicators will also help the market followers to make sense out of otherwise unanticipated price action in the market.

Let’s talk what exactly an investor can derive from these indicators:

Suppose USD has been in a tailspin for three weeks and the trading day is beginning of the week i.e. Monday.

Now it is easily predictable that many traders are holding large short USD positions.

However on Friday the employment data is yet to be released.

It is very obvious that with this key piece of economic information as it is made public, the USD could experience a short-term rally leading up to the data on Friday as traders pare down their short positions.

This shows that these small but vital informative indicators directly or indirectly rules the trading terminal and affects the prices vigorously.

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These economic indicators are mainly helpful in top down approach followed by any investor.:)

They start their analysis with global economies including both national and international economic indicators as GDP growth rates, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, productivity and energy prices as well.

The availability of good economic data is the major attention of international markets as they are the indicator of the countries economy which is the promising destination for foreign investors.

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Not only this the other releases like personal income, unemployment rate, housing starts, retail sales etc. which are also known as coincident indicators give an overview on future performance of the related country and its economic conditions.

These indicators are changing at the same time and in same direction as the whole economy moves, so they represent directly the current state of the economy. 🙂