Posts Tagged ‘U.S. economy’

Weekly Update 13th – 17th September 2010

The Indian markets saw good gains in the week gone by, as foreign investors continued to put money in search of growth which is lukewarm in major part of the world. According to the latest FED beige book finding, the U.S. economy has shown “widespread signs of a deceleration” in mid-July through the end of August. The Beige Book showed that within manufacturing, weakness was largely related to construction while strength was in auto-related production, including production of steel indicating that the FOMC may consider stimulus package in the September meeting.

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Deficit concerns pertaining to European countries also waned when Portugal managed to clock bids for 2.6 times the amount offered for sale of bonds due in 2021 compared to 1.6 times in the March sale. The better response to the bond sale gave relief to the investors over the health of European nations. Chinese government would continue to take measures in order to curb down speculation in property market and U.S. may call for protection against China imports are some of the concerns that are playing out in the market. Agovernment report showed that the manufacturers in Japan were optimistic for the fifth consecutive quarter. Japanese government is expected to revise up its estimate for the second quarter economic expansion as the companied have cut spending at the slowest pace since 2007.

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Going ahead, market will keep an eye on the RBI move in its monetary review due next week. There is a chance that RBI may leave policy rate unchanged for a while or tinker with Repurchase (Repo) rate by hiking it by 25 basis points. The expectations of good growth especially in the industrials have been built as the companies are now more confident about their expansion plans. The expected uplift in the manufacturing in the third quarter is likely to provide the gains in materials like cement and steel companies in terms of better realization of the products.

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Despite mixed cues from the global indices, Indian markets traded with the positive bias throughout the week. It almost tested the upper trend of the weekly channel so one should be careful for the week ahead and wait for the sustainability above that zone for confirmation of breakout before initiating fresh investment. Nifty has support between 5540-5475 and Sensex between 18300- 18000 levels.

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It was a truncated week for Indian market. Upside in bullions dazzled the eye of investors. Gold is trading near the mark of all time high as investors increased their long position in gold futures on safe haven buying. Mighty commodity crude, lost its shine on end of driving season in US amid comfortable stocks. Increasing short position in gasoline is adding further pressure on prices. Crude may trade in a range of $71-$76 dollar per barrel. Investors should keep a tight vigil on the data of US Michigan Confidence, advance retail sales etc, which is likely to provide further direction in commodities. As regards agro commodities it should be a good week for oil seeds and edible oil complex where investors may see some lower level buying. However, ample of stocks may cap the upside.

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WEEKLY COMMENTARY 1st – 05th March

Series of economic data amid Indian Union Budget resulted in erratic price movements in commodities throughout the week. Market participants indulged actively themselves in the market. Bullions cut some of their losses in the later part of the week on short covering.

Expiry of February contract of base metals also made them very volatile. Most of them surrendered their previous gain on poor outcome of economic data.

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Strong dollar together with the most recent signs that the U.S. economy is still struggling to recover, led bearishness in all base metals. On the date of expiry, lead closed down and the gap between lead and zinc  narrowed down to 90 paisa. Similar to base metals, even energy complex drifted lower on negative economic releases in the middle of strong dollar.

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A stronger dollar makes oil and other commodities less affordable for holders of other currencies. On MCX, it touched the 3722 and moved down towards the level of 3600 on profit booking. Rising number of rigs coupled with rising mercury in Midwest cooled down natural gas prices further. On Friday, commodities recovered marginally on improved US GDP.

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Bears were seen active in agro-commodities last week as most of the future contracts on NCDEX settled in red zone on weekly basis. Guar pack settled in red territory as weak domestic and export demand hammered maize prices on future bourses.

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In oil seeds section, soyabean also ended the week with negative impression as the Indian market moved in line with weak overseas market. Continuation of subdued demand for soy meal from South East Asian countries and ample stocks of edible oil kept prices under check during the week.

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Mustard seed futures traded range bound. Lack of demand and improvement in weather condition had a bearish impact on market in the week gone by.

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In spices pack except turmeric futures all other futures settled in red zone. Pepper and jeera futures maintained their downtrend during the week taking cues from the higher fresh arrivals to the physical market. However turmeric futures ended the week on positive note supported by good export demand. Maize also traded in negative zone due to fresh crop arrivals and higher output estimates. According to latest government estimates the total output of current rabi season will be at 5.64 million tonnes over 5.61 million tonnes last year.

Nifty Hit the Level of 5,000 :)

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Nifty hit the significant level of 5,000, first time since May 23, 2008, taking 326 trading sessions while, the standard index prepared early gains to close flat after hitting 5,003 at its day’s high.

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However, nifty closed slightly higher at 4,965, up 7 points whereas another standard Sensex also ended flat at 16,711, up 34 points, off its day’s high of 16,820 while both the indices were lower by over 4.4% decline in heavyweight RIL.

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Moreover, RIL stated that it has raised around Rs 3,188 crore through sale of 1.50 crore equity shares of the company and selling pressure in RIL weighed down on the oil & gas index, down 2.8%.

Additionally, the BSE realty index slid 0.9%, Unitech lost 3% and Phoenix Mills declined 2.4% while IT and auto stocks increased.

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Similarly, the BSE IT index gained 1.9%, Patni Computer and HCL Tech rose over 6% while the auto index on the BSE was also up 1.5% and Amtek Auto increased 14.6%.

On the other hand, in the Sensex pack, ACC emerged as the biggest gainer while the stock advanced 3.6% to Rs 827 however, Hindalco, JP Associates, Bharti Airtel and Maruti Suzuki gained over 3% each.

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Further, RIL was declared the top loser in the group followed by Tata Steel and ITC.

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A correction is expected and likely to take place in markets at current levels. But it is unlikely to be a sharp one.

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European and Asian stock markets extended the week’s rally on Thursday, hitting new highs for the year, as investors became increasingly confident that the U.S. economy , the world’s largest , is growing again.

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