Posts Tagged ‘supply’

INFLATION – “THE SILENT CREEPER” Part 2

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Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, INFLATION –  “THE SILENT CREEPER”.

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Inflation Silent Creeper Part 2

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In previous Blog we had touched upon the impacts of inflation on economy in current scenario and the reasons for the inflation.

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Now in this part we would look into the possible Measures to check inflation.

Measures to check inflation:


•  To give immediate relief from inflationary pressure, government is planning to check the supply deficiency.

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It has allowed importing sugar.

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It will import rice, as rice production is expected to drop in 2010.

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Import duties on oil seeds have been slashed.

•  Money supply should be checked, otherwise in the time of scarcity excess liquidity will accelerate inflation further.

•  Distribution process should be very fast and transparent.

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Currently we need a well managed and coordinated distribution of stocks through PDS (Public Distribution System), open market sales of public stocks etc.

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Hoarding should be avoided here and government should keep an eye on this.

•  This rising inflation has become a major threat for economy.

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The only key way to check the inflation is to bridge the gap between demand and supply, which may control the price rise.

•  Unfortunately, Indian agriculture is characterized by low input and low output systems.

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Hence we have to increase the productivity.

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For example: Yield of paddy in India is only 2.9 tonnes/hectare as compared to 7.5 tonnes/hectare in US.

•  Check the rising cost of cultivation.

Increasing land, labour, fertilizers and other inputs are discouraging farmers to produce more in absence of sufficient liquidity.

•  Apart from grain, government should also create buffer stocks or strategic reserve of oil seeds and other crop, so that it can release it at the time of crisis.

Next Blog we would try to know about the other concerns in Indian economy regarding the parameters to check inflation.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

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NEWS ROUND UP – ECONOMY & INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest News round up from Indian Economy and various industrial Sectors of the country.

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NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

·India’s industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 percent in September from a year earlier.

· The green shoots visible in the economy failed to enhance government revenue with indirect tax collections — comprising customs, excise and service tax — falling almost 22 per cent to Rs 1,26,903 crore in the April- October period this year.

It stood at Rs 1,61,954 crore in the corresponding seven months of 2008-09. The overall decline was led by a 32 per cent fall in customs revenue.

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Oil & Gas

·Reliance Industries Ltd. found oil in a block in the western state of Gujarat and is assessing the commercial viability of the discovery, which may help increase domestic fuel supplies.

Five wells were drilled in the 635 square kilometer area located in the Cambay basin, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Ahmedabad

·Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has decided to merge its energy trading joint venture with steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal with their exploration tie-up.

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Metals

·Tata Steel has approved an exchange offer for an existing $875 million of securities into foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs), in a move to reduce costs and ease repayment.  The move gives an option to extend the repayment schedule by two years.

·Hindalco Industries plans to raise about Rs 2,900 crore in the next three to four weeks.
In July, it had announced plans to raise Rs 2,400 crore through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP).

The issue could not take place due to the volatility in the stock markets.

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Capital Goods

· Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) has secured a contract worth Rs 1,635 crore to build a coal-fired plant for Madhya Pradesh Power Generation Co. Ltd.

The project will be executed on turnkey basis and L&T’s scope includes design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of balance of Plant Package (BoP) systems.

·L&T one of the failed suitors for scam-hit Satyam Computer, sold 2.32 per cent stake in the IT company (now Mahindra Satyam) for over Rs 306 crore, exactly a month after the lock-in perid on sale of its holding ended.

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Refineries

· MRPL is planning to invest Rs 6,000-8,000 crore starting from early 2011.

The company is looking at raising around Rs 5,000 crore to support its expansion plan, for setting up a polypropylene plant and installing a single buoy mooring (SBM) at the Mangalore port.

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FMCG

· Emami is diversifying into the cement business and will invest Rs 1,750 crore to set up production units in the next three years.

As part of the new plan, group company Emami Cement will set up a fully integrated cement plant in Chhattisgarh with an installed capacity to produce 3.1 million tonnes.

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Finance

· Power Finance Corporation has decided to lend Rs 50,000 crore, over two third of its total asset base, to fund various proposed power projects in the country.

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India May Import 3 Million Tonnes Sugar In 2010/11

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Major Agri-Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

India May Import 3 Million Tonnes Sugar In 2010/11

India May Import 3 Million Tonnes Sugar In 2010/11

India, the world’s biggest consumer of sugar, may import 2.5-3 million tonnes of the sweetener in 2010/11 as domestic output is seen falling short of demand for a third straight year.

Raw sugar futures had rocketed to 28-½ year top on huge imports from the South Asian country, while whites hit a record earlier this year.

In 2009/10 season lower area and drought will keep India’s output at 15.3 million tonnes, a little more than last year’s output of 15 million tonnes, falling severely short of domestic consumption for a second straight year.

There is a margin of 200 rupees per quintal (100 kg) in imports.

So, provided the domestic prices remain firm, millers in Maharashtra would be interested in buying more raw sugar.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that World coffee output may fall in 2009-10

World coffee output may fall in 2009-10: Trade body

Global coffee production during the 2009-10 crop year may dip below last year’s level of 128.1 million bags due to bad weather in top three growing countries — Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia, according to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO).

If production falls are confirmed, the global coffee exports are also expected to decline this year.

Production in Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee producer, is estimated to be 39 million tonnes in the 2009-10 season, against 45.99 million bags in a year ago.

ICO said, however, production is expected to rise in Asia, Africa and Central America.

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Imports of Gold Jumped to 37.5 Tonnes in September

Imports of Gold Jumped to 37.5 Tonnes in September

Imports of Gold Jumped to 37.5 Tonnes in September


The imports of Gold surged by 72 per cent to 37.5 tonnes in September as compared to previous month due to the increased demand during festive season.

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The gold import in August stood at 21.8 tonnes after witnessing a growth of nearly three-fold from 7.8 tonnes in July, data provided by the Bombay Bullion Association showed.

The volume of shipment surged due to festive season demand, Bombay Bullion Association quoted.

Moreover, BBA has said that the imports is likely to decline from this level in October after the festival demand is over.

During the festival season, this year, the demand was more for gold coins than for retail jewelery as the prices were hovered above the Rs 16,000 per 10 grams level.

The high prices are likely to affect the demand.

The gold prices were ruling at Rs 15,898 per 10 grams for MCX December delivery while it stood at 1,034.8 dollar an ounce (28.34 grams) on the international comex.

The imports stood at 54 tonnes in the same month last year.

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Sweetness Of Sugar – Part 1 :)

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “Commodity Corner Series” 🙂

Sweetness of Sugar

Sweetness of Sugar

We would touch upon aspects like seasonality,cyclic nature and analysis of price trend of Sugar.

The Commodity

Sugar is the most plentiful economic sweetener and India’s second largest agro-processing industry.

There are more than 600 installed sugar mills in the country.

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The Seasonality & Cyclic Nature

The crushing season in the country generally starts from October and reaches its peak in January before March end or April of the next year.

It has been seen that during this period, supply arrives in the market and resultantly prices starts falling.

The cyclic pattern of the sugar industry lasts for 3-5 years.

Currently, the domestic sugar market is entering into a severe shortage phase due to sharp decline in production.

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Analysis Of Price Trend

Tracking short term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in and over the last years, one can analyse and assess its prices.

Since 2006, Sugar has been widely talked displaying a continuous bullish rally both in domestic & international market.

In domestic markets, Sugar prices remained bearish in the most part of the year 2007.

Prices surged by almost 30% in the first half of 2008 & regained its sweetness with supportive factors like lower production estimates and rise in export demand.

From July 2008 sugar prices have been maintaining its bullish trend.

In January, 2009 sugar prices reached record high levels.

With an eye on the rising prices, the Central Government announced measures with aim to control sugar prices.

In the month of May, 2009 world sugar prices have surged to a near-three year high, on the back of speculative buying by
funds betting on supply shortfalls in India and Pakistan.

Since October (the beginning of the 2008-09 sugar season), prices in spot and futures market have witnessed a bull run due to lower production estimates for the season.

Market has already breached the long term bearish trend line and presently trading in an interim bullish trend channel.

Speculators, and especially large traders, have really embraced the long side of the Sugar market.

The commodity has one of the best fundamental pictures right now and it is getting a good deal of solid buying.
The sugar market is overbought but it seems that it still has room to move higher in the longterm bull market than imagined.

It has been one of the better performers of the commodities market.

The price of Sugar has more than tripled in about 3 years.

Though, Sugar seems set to lose some of its sweetness for consumers in the time to come.

Sugar prices recently touched a 28-year high of 25.39 cents per pound on September 30, 2009.

This is likely to climb up going forward, because imports by countries such as China, Russia, Mexico and India are set to rise. These countries are consuming more, but producing less of the commodity.

Sugar futures tended to do well in these years.
An investor could have increased his return variability in these years without sacrificing any of his return.

Stay Tuned for more on Sugar Market in commodity corner 😉

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