Posts Tagged ‘stimulus package’

RBI’s Move to Modify the ECB Guidelines

India Inc cautiously welcomed the RBI”s move to modify the ECB guidelines and said this also indicates a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures announced to help the industry tide over the global crisis.

However, Ficci said that the RBI”s step may make availability of funds through ECB route more expensive while the ECB route is frequently used by SMEs for raising funds, which are even otherwise available at a high price from the domestic banking system.

Meanwhile, it also said that the relaxation of certain ECB norms given by the RBI during the liquidity crisis period to India Inc have been gradually withdrawn that is an indicator of a gradual withdrawal of the stimulus package.

Further, CII said that RBI”s steps are an indication of slowly unwinding of the liquidity enhancing measures while these measures should not be seen as a precursor to monetary tightening through a rate hike.

On the other hand, the chamber welcomed the central bank”s decision to allow NBFCs exclusively involved in financing infrastructure projects to avail of ECBs.

Centre’s Fiscal Deficit is Rs 2.45 Lakh Crore in First 7 months of 2009-10

Centre's fiscal deficit exceeded Rs 2.45 lakh crore in the first 7 months of 2009-10.

The Centre”s fiscal deficit more than doubled to Rs 2.45 lakh crore in the first 7 months of 2009-10.


With this, fiscal deficit during April-October, 2009 reached over 61% of the targeted level of over Rs 4 lakh crore for the current fiscal.




However, the government projected fiscal deficit of 6.8% of GDP for the current fiscal while with GDP likely to increase with a high growth rate of 7.9% recorded in Q2, there is more room to contain the fiscal deficit within the targeted level.


Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit already crossed over 87% of the targeted amount for entire 2008-09 as the government was expecting fiscal deficit of just 2.5% of GDP at this point of time last time.


Notably, Fiscal Deficit is a economic phenomena when a government’s total expenditures exceed the revenue that it generates (excluding money from borrowings).


Deficit differs from debt, which is an accumulation of yearly deficits.




Moreover, when excise duty was cut by 6% and service tax by 2% from December onwards and plan expenditure rose as part of stimulus package, the government revised its target to 6% of GDP, which later turned out to be 6.2%.

The rise in fiscal deficit could be gauged from the fact that tax revenues decreased by around 8% to 2.13 lakh crore till October this fiscal against Rs 2.32 lakh crore a year ago.


The Centre’s revenue deficit, which is a gap between revenue receipts over revenue expenditure like salaries, rose by 138 per cent to stand at Rs 20.76 lakh crore during April-October, 2009.


India To Press For Stimulus Package Continuance at G-20 Summit !


India will seek continuance of the stimulus package that was devised to get the global economy out of the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s at the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh .


Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who leads the Indian delegation at the summit being hosted by President Barack Obama, will voice developing countries views that the developed countries should return to the trend growth and stabilization of the banking and financial sectors.

Such measures affects exports, capital flows and investment of the developing economies.


Indian PM is going to pitch strongly against any attempts at protectionism and advocating reforms of the international financial institutions in this G 20 Summit .


Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla are among the members of the Indian delegation which attending the summit.


This Summit will also be attended by world leaders including British Prime Minister, German Chancellor, French PresidentΒ  among others.


The summit represents 90 per cent of the world’s GDP, 80 per cent of the world trade and two-thirds of humanity.


The summit is important for emerging economies like India, which have been affected by the global economic crisis not of its making, to tell the world that there was need to continue the stimulus package that was agreed at the Washington summit last November and a decision to pump in USD 1.1 trillion was decided at the London Summit in April last.


Indian delegation are of view that the continuance of the stimulus package was in the interest of the poor countries and the emerging economies and developed economies should not adopt any strategy to exit from it.


India will voice strongly the need for avoiding the temptation to resort to protectionism by the developed countries under the present crisis.


Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 2 :)

Positive Undertones In The Economy

Extending to the yesterday’s post on the positive undertones of the economy in the markets and investors tips, here we coming up with the more factors which investors should use for picking up fundamentally good stocks.


1. Reality companies hike rates by 15%

Reality sector is witnessing a substantial demand, especially in the mature markets, after the prices dropped a few months ago.


With the gradual return of residential property buyers, prices in NCR and Mumbai areas have moved up 10-15%.

How long these prices will sustain is hard to determine, but this indicates the confidence of investors.


2. Better Position

India can be considered as β€œbalanced” in terms of investment and consumption with savings rate of 35% and consumption of 65% of its GDP.


The fastest growing China leans towards investment, whereas most of the western countries are weighted more towards consumption.


If we compare India’s Sensitive Index with its other Asian peers, Sensex is valued at 17.6 times estimated earnings where as China’s Shanghai Composite Index trades at 22 times earnings and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is valued at 24 times.


So, India remains very attractive and it is an opportune time for Indian companies to grab market share.


3. Developments in the rest of the economy πŸ™‚

If we see the positive economic numbers across the globe, it seems that world economy is moving towards recovery.


Australian economy surprised with a jump in growth in the second quarter.

US have witnessed a growth in the current quarter GDP, US manufacturing and housing sectors appears to be gathering pace, quarter’s results came better than expected.


European economies like France and Germany continued their gradual emergence from the worst crisis in decades and company results showed an upturn.


4. Concerns Over Weak Monsoon!

Everyone is expecting that poor rains would push up food prices in the short-term, due to the reduced yield of kharif crop and it would add to inflationary pressures.


But at the same time, we should also know that Indian agriculture is not limited to agro commodities only, but it is well diversified into horticulture, livestock and fisheries and their share in total output of the agricultural sector is increasing.


Total agricultural output accounts for only 18.5 % of the gross domestic product and the kharif crops like cereals, pulses and oilseeds account for only 20% of it.

Moreover, government spending in rural areas will mitigate the effect of diminished monsoon rains.


So, Looking at the above factors, India growth story remains strong in the long run.


So, one can go for the companies, which will benefit from β€œEconomic growth” like power plants, roads, service providers like banking and engineering sector.

Thanks πŸ™‚

Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 1 :)

positive undertones of economy

We had a positive Q1FY10 result, which boosted the sentiments of investors regarding the economic recovery.


But are we actually out of it?

Though the earnings were encouraging but if we analyze it, the results had a β€œbottom-line growth”… may be because of the lower costs of raw material, huge cost cutting, profit from other sources like stake sale or stock market trading etc.


With lower interest rates, government spending in rural areas and lower base year, I am very much optimistic for Q2FY10 that these results would be β€œrevenue driven”.


Top line growth is not only good for the company and stock market but also for the economy as a whole.


Apart from the Q2FY10 numbers, there are positive undertones in the markets and investors should use these undertones for picking up fundamentally good stocks.


Those are :

1. Measures for fiscal deficit

The GoI is taking several measures to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Disinvestment is high on the priority list.


As private spending is increasing, Govt. is reducing need for stimulus.

A large part of deficit is contributed by the oil subsidy.

For this, the ministry of petroleum is lowering the subsidy burden in Kerosene and LPG.

Recently, improved tax compliance with new tax code and enforcement through the recently initiated Unique Identification Project are other steps to control the deficit.


2. Accelerating production

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of the global recession.

The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles or other factory-made goods.


3. Capital flows to India

Another positive trigger can be the capital flows to India, which is expected to increase because of better medium-term growth and faster recovery prospects.


The Q1FY10 early indicators suggest that NRI deposits, FII portfolio inflows and inward FDI flows have generally been strong, as compared to the net capital outflows witnessed in the last two quarters of 2008-09.


4. Exports seen at $167 bn in FY10

For Indian Export Organisations, India’s exports are expected to touch around $167 billion, almost the same level of last year in FY10.

The commerce ministry looks ambitious and optimistic and has come up with foreign trade policy for the next 5 years, whereby; it aims to have an export of $ 200 billion by FY11.


This will ultimately improve the declining trend of exports and will give thrust to employment-oriented sector like Textiles and Gem Jewellery.


5. The New Tax Code

The new tax code has simplified the tax laws and will result in better compliance and a broader tax base.

The resulting incremental tax revenues will first reduce the fiscal deficit. This is a net positive.


People, there are many other factors and Positive undertones in the economy which indicates towards the betterment of the economy and stock market.

We would come up with the rest of factors in Part 2 of the topic in next blog. πŸ™‚

Stay Tuned πŸ˜‰

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of

the global recession. The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles

or other factory-made goods.