Posts Tagged ‘South Africa’

ALUMINIUM… “PRICES ON ONE-WAY TRACK”

Aluminium is a silvery white and dull gray coloured, and the third most abundant element in the Earth’s crust after oxygen and silicon. In nature, it only exists in very stable combinations. Due to its strong affinity to oxygen, it is always found in the form of oxides or silicates. The chief source of aluminium is bauxite ore. Aluminum is lightweight, ductile and soft. Its density is only 1/3 of steel. Aluminum is resistant to weather, common atmospheric gases and a wide range of liquids.

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Global Scenario

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Aluminium ore, bauxite, occurs mainly in tropical and sub-tropical areas – Africa, West Indies, South America and Australia. The leading producing countries are United States, Russia, Canada, the European Union, China, Australia, Brazil, Norway, South Africa, Venezuela, the Gulf States (Bahrain and United Arab Emirates), India and New Zealand. Together they constitute more than 90 percent of the world primary aluminium production. The largest aluminium markets are North America, Europe and East Asia.

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Indian Scenario

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India is the fifth largest producer of aluminium in the world with production capacity of about 3 per cent of the world. India’s reserves are estimated to be 7.5 per cent of the total deposits. India is self dependent for aluminium supply and exports about 82,000 tonnes annually. The primary Indian aluminium producers were BALCO, NALCO, HINDALCO and MALCO.

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India’s per capita consumption of aluminium is 1 kg as against 30 kg in the developed world.

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World Aluminium Markets

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LME, TOCOM, SHFE and NYMEX are the important international markets that provide direction to the aluminium prices.In 2009, aluminium prices gained about 40% with the global combination of stimulus packages and the rapid recovery in demand in emerging markets. The prices and inventory level of metal in international market, such as LME and SHFE, influences the domestic market.

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Facts & Figures

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·World aluminum output in March rose 13% on the month to 2.045 million metric tonnes, according to figures released by the International Aluminum Institute.

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·Primary aluminium stocks in China, the world’s top consumer and producer of the metal, have risen more than 45 percent from January on increased production.

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·Brazil’s output of primary aluminum dropped 0.9% on the year in March to 131,700 metric tons.

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·Global demand rose by 29% in January and February compared with the very depressed levels recorded a year ago.

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Price Movement

Despite the poor news stemming from Euro weakness on Greek debt woes and monetary tightening in China, aluminium halted its downturn and traded sideways for most of last week.

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Most other base metals also traded sideways to higher last week, and aluminium continues to be strongly correlated with copper. Swollen inventories are no longer a problem for the aluminium market, as global demand is helping to push up alumininum prices (arrow line).

Global M&A Deals to Fall 56% in 2009: OECD

Global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are projected to decline 56% in 2009 compared to last year due to sharp declines in such activities in rich and emerging markets including India.

However, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) stated that the expected decline in M&A activities this year would be the largest year-on-year decline since 1995.

Meanwhile, the estimate is based on an OECD analysis of data for international M&A activities up to November 26, 2009 where the projected decline is primarily due to a 60% fall in value of cross-border M&A by firms based in the OECD area, to just $454 billion in 2009 from over $1 trillion last year.

Moreover, there has been a decline in M&A activities into and from major emerging economies while International M&A activity by firms based in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa fell by 62% to $46 billion in 2009 from $121 billion in 2008.

Additionally, it is said that such activities into these countries is anticipated to slide by almost 40% to little over $80 billion in 2009 from just under $140 billion last year while M&A investments have been severely hit by the financial turmoil, which has resulted in tight credit flow.

On the other hand, the latest international investment estimates suggest that total foreign direct investment into the 30 OECD countries will fall to $600 billion in 2009 from a 2008 total of $1.02 trillion.

Bharti Airtel Shares Shot Up, Ended 4% Higher :)

Bharti Scrip ended 4 percent higher, a day after the firm had to terminate the proposed $24-billion equity-swap-cum strategic tie-up with South Africa’s telecom major MTN.

Bharti Scrip ended 4 percent higher, a day after the firm had to terminate the proposed $24-billion equity-swap-cum strategic tie-up with South Africa’s telecom major MTN.

Bharti Airtel shares, which opened on a firm note Thursday, ended 4 percent higher than its previous close, a day after the firm had to terminate the proposed $24-billion equity-swap-cum strategic tie-up with South Africa’s telecom major MTN.

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The deal, if it had materialized, would have created the world’s third largest mobile phone firm, but had led to analysts worrying that the consequent debt burden would have made its stock unattractive.

Upon collapse of the talks, the company’s shares opened at Rs. 435 Thursday on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) as against the previous day’s close at Rs. 418.55.

It shut shop at Rs. 435.35, a gain of Rs.16.80 or 4.01 percent over the previous day’s close.

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The scrip had shot up to an intra-day high of Rs.467, moving up Rs.27.30 or 6.52 percent.

It had hit a 52-week high of Rs.990 on May 19 and an annual low of Rs.360.10 on Aug 11.

The company has been a laggard on the stock exchanges over the past month, falling 3.74 percent on the BSE even as the benchmark index of the bourse, the Sensex, rose 7.56 percent during the same period.

Analysts had been viewing the stock negatively owing to Bharti’s persistent sweetening of its offer for MTN.

In the last quarter, the scrip fell 4.36 percent, while the Sensex rose 18.17 percent.

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However, with the deal off, the scrip is back in favour with traders and is expected to take off.

‘In a way this is good news for the Bharti scrip; had this deal happened it would have burdened the company’s balance sheet which is currently low on leverage,’ said SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla.

‘Analysts have been wary of the deal because of past acquisitions like the Tata Corus deal, which turned Tata’s balance sheet into a heavily leveraged one,’ added Thunuguntla.

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Late Wednesday, Bharti Airtel and South Africa’s MTN said they were terminating their talks for the proposed deal that could have created a large mobile phone entity, just behind China Mobile and Vodafone Group, with a subscription base of 207 million.

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According to Bharti, the proposed deal was called off after the South African authorities declined to accept certain regulatory constraints on the part of both sides.

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Bharti-MTN Deal May Hit Turbulent Weather with New Takeover Norms in Place!!

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The $23-billion equity swap deal proposed by Bharti Airtel and South Africa’s MTN may hit turbulent weather with India’s capital markets watchdog amending the merger and takeover norms involving international transactions, experts said Tuesday.

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In a move that surprised the corporate sector, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Tuesday said the mandatory open offer norm will be triggered even if the overseas equity holdings, in the form of global depository receipts or American depository shares, exceed 15 percent of the total paid-up capital of the target company.

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Earlier, the open offer was mandatory only when the acquisition of shares in the target company exceeded 15 percent during transactions entered into within the country, either through stock market operations or through preferential deals.

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In the Bharti-MTN deal, the two sides proposed to exchange shares in addition to payout of cash that exceeds 15 percent.

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Bharti had proposed to buy 36 percent of the South African company by offering shareholders half a Bharti share, whereas MTN was to get a 25 percent stake in the Indian telecom major for $2.9 billion by issuing global depository receipts.

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“In its existing form, the Bharti-MTN deal will become more complicated because of this amendment. The dynamics have changed and both MTN and Bharti will have to go back to the drawing board to see the deal through,” said SMC Capitals equity head Jagannadham Thunuguntla.

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As per the existing provisions of the SEBI takeover code, no acquirer can buy shares of 15 percent or more in a listed company without making an open offer to acquire a minimum of 20 percent of such listed company’s shares from the public shareholders.

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Announcing the changes in the takeover code, SEBI chairman C.B. Bhave also said that there would be no retrospective effect on earlier deals because of this amendment.

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