Posts Tagged ‘services sector’

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

Hello Friends,

Just an extension of our previous blog ”RBI And Its Policies – Part 1β€³.

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

In this Blog we would touch upon the aspects as that of Monetary projection from RBI, assessment of economy scenario at present and relevance of RBI policy on economy.

Monetary projection:

For policy purposes, money supply (M3) growth for 2009-10 is placed at 17.0 per cent, down from 18.0 per cent projected in the Annual Policy Statement.

Consistent with this, aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks are projected to grow by 18.0 per cent.

The growth in adjusted nonfood credit, including investment in bonds/debentures/shares of public sector undertakings and private corporate sector and Commercial Papers (CPs), has been revised downwards at 18.0 per cent as in the Annual Policy Statement.

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Economy:

Since the last review in July 2009, there has been a discernable improvement in the global economy.

The recovery is underpinned by output expansion in emerging market economies, particularly in Asia.

World output has improved in the second quarter, manufacturing activity has picked up, trade is recovering, financial market conditions are improving, and risk appetite is returning.

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A sharp recovery in equity markets has enabled banks to raise capital to repair their balance sheets.

If we talk about the home country then there are definitive indications of the economy attaining the ‘escape velocity‘ and reverting to the growth track.

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The performance of the industrial sector has improved markedly in recent months.

Domestic and external financing conditions are on the upturn.

Capital inflows have revived.

Moreover activity in the primary capital market has picked up and funding from non-bank domestic sources has eased.

Liquidity conditions have remained easy and interest rates have softened in the money and credit markets.

Growth projection for GDP for 2009-10 on current assessment is placed at 6.0% with an upward bias, the same as the previous policy review.

But some darker parts also persist.

There are clear signs of rising inflation stemming largely from the supply side, particularly from food prices.

Private consumption demand is yet to pick up.

Agricultural production is expected to decline.

Services sector growth remains below trend.

Bank credit growth continues to be sluggish.

The central bank has warned of possible asset price bubbles, raised banks’ provisioning requirements for commercial real estate loans and lifted inflation forecast.

WPI inflation for end-March 2010 is projected at 6.5 per cent with an upward bias.

This is once again higher than the projection of 5.0 per cent made in the Annual Policy Statement in July 2009.

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Stay Tuned for more on the topic.

We would look into Monetary Policy stance, more facts about economic indicators and Analysis from the Analyst from monetary point of view.

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Where are we heading to? Part 1

Growth in Indian Industry

The Indian economy’s business sentiment has improved indicating a path of recovery.

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Let’s see, why do we say this?

A surprise improvement was witnessed in the IIP numbers for June 2009 at 7.8%.

The WPI based inflation has softened to below zero level.

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However, the prices of items of mass consumption (food articles) show no signs of softening and have risen substantially due to supply side constraints.

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The performance of inward investments has been fairly well.

The Foreign Direct Investment flows surged 13% at $4.3 bn for April-May 2009-10.

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Painting a picture of a resilient economy, Finance Minister believes the economy will grow by more than 6% despite a fear of drought and the decline in the sowing of the kharif crop, such as rice.

The strength of the economy in the slowdown is the large services sector, which has, historically, been less affected by cyclical downturns than manufacturing, a strong farm sector, robust savings rate, ambitious infrastructure development programme and upbeat foreign investors.

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The 224-million-tonnes cement industry is yet again set to strike a growth of 10 per cent in June.

The production numbers from the top cement makers are anything to go by, the continuous robust growth will be maintained.

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The Rs 82,000 crore Indian FMCG industry primarily seeking the implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) by April 1, 2010 in the upcoming Union Budget, expects fiscal measures will spur growth of the FMCG sector in rural as well as urban India.

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Further, in a sign of confidence in the Indian markets, Foreign Institutional Investors pumped in over $6 billion, or about Rs. 29,940 crore this year, with over $1 billion coming in July alone.

An analysis of FIIs activity shows that overseas investors are the net purchasers of Indian stocks worth $6.18 billion (Rs 29,940.30 crore) from January to July this year.

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Also, with the India-Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations)Β  that inked the long awaited Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for duty-free import and export of 4,000 products over a period of eight years at the Asean economic ministers meeting held in Thailand, the India-Asean trade is likely to surpass $50 billion by 2010.

The Indian economy’s business sentiment has improved indicating a path of recovery. Let’s see, why do we say this?

A surprise improvement was witnessed in the IIP numbers for June 2009 at 7.8%. The WPI based inflation has softened to

below zero level. However, the prices of items of mass consumption (food articles) show no signs of softening and have

risen substantially due to supply side constraints. The performance of inward investments has been fairly well. The

Foreign Direct Investment flows surged 13% at $4.3 bn for April-May 2009-10.

Painting a picture of a resilient economy, Finance Minister believes the economy will grow by more than 6% despite a fear

of drought and the decline in the sowing of the kharif crop, such as rice. The strength of the economy in the slowdown is

the large services sector, which has, historically, been less affected by cyclical downturns than manufacturing, a strong

farm sector, robust savings rate, ambitious infrastructure development programme and upbeat foreign investors.

The 224-million-tonnes cement industry is yet again set to strike a growth of 10 per cent in June. The production

numbers from the top cement makers are anything to go by, the continuous robust growth will be maintained.

The Rs 82,000 crore Indian FMCG industry primarily seeking the implementation of the GST (Goods & Services Tax) by

April 1, 2010 in the upcoming Union Budget, expects fiscal measures will spur growth of the FMCG sector in rural as well

as urban India

Further, in a sign of confidence in the Indian markets, Foreign Institutional Investors pumped in over $6 billion, or about

Rs.29,940 crore this year, with over $1 billion coming in July alone. An analysis of FIIs activity shows that overseas

investors are the net purchasers of Indian stocks worth $6.18 billion (Rs 29,940.30 crore) from January to July this year.

Also, with the India-Asean (Association of South-East Asian Nations) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that inked the longawaited

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) for duty-free import and export of 4,000 products over a period of eight years at the

Asean economic ministers meeting held in Thailand, the India-Asean trade is likely to surpass $50 billion by 2010.