Posts Tagged ‘risk assessment’

SMC Global Securities : A Leading Financial Services Provider in India :)

Before You Realise Your Loved Ones Will Grow πŸ™‚

If you find yourself asking the question –

Why should I Save ?

Why should I Invest ?

Where do I Invest ?

Who would Guide me to take informed decision on my Investments ?

…then look no further !

[:)]

SMC Global Securities, a leading Financial services provider in India, a vertically integrated investment solutions company, with a pan-india presence is there to guide you and provide complete investment solutions to you.

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Currently, SMC has a highly efficient workforce of over 4,000 employees & one of the largest retail network in India currently serving the financial needs of more than 5,50,000 satisfied investors.

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WEB:

http://www.smcindiaonline.com

http://www.facebook.com/pages/
SMC-GLOBAL-INVESTMENT-SOLUTION/
104149467952?ref=nf

http://www.facebook.com/group.php?
gid=90885076779&ref=ts


http://smcinvestmentsolutionindia.ning.com

http://networkedblogs.com/blog/smc_global
_blog_moneywise_be_wise/

If you find yourself asking the question –

Why should I Save ?

Why should I Invest ?

Where do I Invest ?

Who would Guide me to take informed decision on my Investments ?

…then look no further !

SMC Global, a leading Financial services provider in India, a vertically integrated investment solutions company, with a pan-india presence is there to guide you and provide complete investment solutions to you.

Currently, SMC has a highly efficient workforce of over 4,000 employees & one of the largest retail network in India currently serving the financial needs of more than 5,50,000 satisfied investors.

Weekly Equity Update 21st-28th August :)

Weekly Update

After closing almost flat in penultimate week, in the week gone by markets closed in green terrain following the global markets which rallied to 10-month highs buoyed by renewed hopes that the global economic recovery is gathering pace and is pulling out of its deepest recession since the 1930s.

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Closer home, revival of monsoon rains, fresh buying by FIIs and firm European market boosted sentiment.

Moreover the statement made by FM that government expects GDP growth to accelerate to over 8% in 2010-11, with the economy showing signs of recovery, acted as a booster to markets.

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However it is expected that higher food prices will lead to WPI inflation accelerating to 6% in the fiscal year to March 2010.

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On the world economic front, the US economy shrank at an annual pace of 1% between April and June 2009, unchanged from an initial estimate released last month.

From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

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Japan‘s exports tumbled and stood at 35.7% for a tenth straight month in July as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

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Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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Once again commodities have shown the buoyancy that they can hold the support.

One or two day’s correction in the prices couldn’t break the trend of commodities. However upside is limited.

Resembling last week, current week as well is jam-packed of event risk as GDP data of many countries will release which will make commodities volatile throughout the week accordingly.

Precious metals may trade in a range with upward bias.

Back at home, to see more upside it has to trade above the level of 15000 in MCX.

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In agro commodities, buying may return in spices as recent fall in the prices has made Indian parity more competitive in international market.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

It seems that currently US markets are determining the overall trend and our markets might be linked up with US markets now as we have broken above 4730 Nifty.

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If US markets don’t react, then we should be seeing higher levels ahead.

Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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EQUITY TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES


From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

Private Equity Funds Shying Away from PIPEs

Private equity-money-indian-rupees

Indian private equity firms are currently disinclined to conduct private investments in public equity (PIPE) deals, according to a report in the Business Standard. Their reticence is thought to be due to the recent secondary market crash, and the uncertainty that ensued.

According to the report, which cites a study by Venture Intelligence, private equity firms announced 24 PIPE deals in H1 2009, which were worth around $349m – a massive 68 percent decline on H1 2008’s $1.58bn, across 68 deals.

In addition, PIPE deals comprised 12 percent of the total private equity deal value – $2.89bn – for H1 2009.

For instance, in 2008, the value of Pipe investments worth $1.67 billion eroded to $1.22 billion, an absolute loss of $0.45 billion (26.85 per cent), said an SMC Capital report.

Vishal Tulsyan, chief executive officer of Motilal Oswal suggested to the Business Standard that losses arising from mark-to-market accounting may be partially to blame for this trend.

β€œPEs are staying away from PIPE deals due to the mark-to-market issue. PEs invest for a time-frame of four-six years. Since the market is uncertain, one would not like to take risk,” he said.

Furthermore, valuations have risen in the last nine months or so. β€œPIPE deals are not cheap anymore. The capital market makes sense for people who are looking at quick appreciation. The market has been range-bound and very volatile,” said Alok Gupta, the chief executive officer of Axis Private Equity, speaking to the Business Standard.

Private Equity Players Making Smart Exits!!

private equity players

Private equity players have finally made smart exits after the market turned northward during the last five months.

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PE players sold PE shares worth about Rs 1,500 crore during this period using the bulk and block deal window.

According to an ET analysis, selling primarily took place during the month of May and August, 2009 and major sellers included Chrys Capital and Citigroup Venture Capital.

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According to Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, the severe correction in the stock market during the year 2008 resulted in substantial losses to private equity players which invested in listed companies.

The recent upward movement of the market helped in recovery of their losses.

This is also the main reason for private equity players selling their stakes.

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As per another Expert, there are two main reasons for exit of PE players.

β€œEveryone is doing a business and one needs cash to carry out businesses. Market crash during September-October last year evaporated the liquidity” said an expert.

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The positive rally of the equity market started on March 9, 2009. Since then the Sensex, has gone up by more than 84%.

In a block deal a minimum quantity of 5 lakh shares or shares with a minimum value of Rs 5 cr is transacted through a single transaction window provided by the stock exchange.

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Whereas, if more than 0.5% of the number of equity shares of a company gets traded under a single client code, it is known as bulk deal.

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Weekly Equity Update 14th-21st August :)

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE1


The week gone by started on a weak note and domestic market nosedived deep into red terrain on huge selling pressure over the ground as unsatisfactory US consumer sentiment report weakened concerns about the recovery in global economy.

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In addition, weak Asian markets along with negative European markets also took huge beating on the bourses.

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Furthermore a poor monsoon rattled the markets, raising fears it could hurt economic prospects of corporates. However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week.

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In this year poor rains have raised worries about growth in India’s domestic-demand driven economy.

But a ray of hope was shown by FM saying that the government will take all the required steps to control drought.

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India has attracted 8% higher FDI to $2.58 billion in June 2009, from $2.39 billion in June 2008.

FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 35,773.40 crore. Inflation for the week ended 8th August stood at -1.53%with the previous week’s annual decline of -1.74%.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up.

Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Sensex has support between 15000-14700 levels and Nifty between 4450-4350 levels. πŸ™‚

However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week!!

Further more Global markets will also play a pivotal role in setting the direction. Inadequate monsoon rains may continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 😦

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TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures :

Weekly BSE Gainers- Losers updateπŸ™‚

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES

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NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

After falling for three weeks in a row, inflation rate rose to -1.53 per cent for the week ended August 8, primarily due to dearer primary articles, especially food items.

The inflation rate for the previous week ended August 1 was -1.74 per cent and stood at 12.82 per cent during the corresponding period in 2008.

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Oil & Gas

Β·Reliance Industries may sell part of its stakes in some of the overseas oil and gas blocks to lower its exploration risk.

RIL, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Reliance Exploration and Production DMZ, holds interests in 15 overseas exploration blocks and is considering farming-out a part of its stake.

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Realty/ Infrastructure

DLF, the country’s largest realty firm, bagged a 350-acre plot for Rs 1,750 crore in Haryana for developing a recreation and leisure project, making it one of the costliest land deals in recent times.

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Information Technologies

Β·Geometric Ltd has announced the release of version 2.0 of its visualisation product, 3DPaintBrush.

This is an innovative visualisation and rendering tool that helps create near photo-realistic images, animations, and videos from 2D models in real-time.

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Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up. Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Movers and Shakers of Today’s Market : 22nd AuG,2009 :)

gainers and Losers

MOvers and Shakers

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Here we present you with the data of Top Gainers and Losers in BSE Index and NSE Nifty for today.

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Top Gainers shows the list of stocks that have gained the most (% terms) compared to their last closing prices. πŸ™‚

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Top Losers shows the list of stocks that have lost the most (% terms) compared to their last closing prices.

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1. Top Gainers in Sensex

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Top Gainers Sensex

2. Top Losers in Sensex

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Top Losers Sensex

3. Top Gainers in Nifty

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Top Gainers

4. Top Losers in Nifty

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Top Losers Nifty


Click HERE to view company’s detailed stock quote and company profile.

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Top Gainers shows the list of stocks that have gained the most (% terms) compared to their last closing prices. πŸ™‚

Top Losers shows the list of stocks that have lost the most (% terms) compared to their last closing prices. 😦

VC/PE funds set their sight on Micro Finance companies :)

Venture Capitalists

Venture capitalists/PE (private equity) funds are now looking at investing in micro finance companies in India.

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According to observers, around Rs 1,000 crore is expected to be invested by venture capitalists/PE funds in the Indian micro finance space (MFIs) this year.

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In fact, of the 50 private equity deals worth $1 billion in banking and finance in the last 18 months, MFIs alone accounted for 20 deals amounting to $200 million.

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Apart from MFI focused funds, other venture capitalists and PE funds who consider opportunities in the financial services space are now adding micro finance to their portfolio.

Many venture capitalists are excited about investing in this space now.

Many MFIs especially south-based ones have the right professionals and processes in place. Early stage investors are keen to enter this space.

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The venture fund does early stage investment and primarily focuses in healthcare and technology.

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Many MFIs have also demonstrated scalability of the business and also boast of a good management structure, essential elements for VC/PE funding.

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The PEs Exodus???

The PE Exodus

Several PE Funds seen selling investments in Open Market.

As per Jagannadham T, equity head, SMC Capitals, the recent bounce in the markets have come as a fresh breather of life for many PE investments and they are using it to exit from some of the investments.

To know more on this issue watch the Video πŸ™‚

CLICK HERE



Institutional Investors have become more sceptical in committing funds!

Equity Head

Private equity firms are becoming cautious about making fresh investments in India with less funds flowing into this segment as institutional investors have become more skeptical in committing funds without thorough research, experts says.

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The rush for PE investments into India has slowdown a bit at present.

Managers are studying the companies more carefully before making any new investment commitment as of now.

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PE funds investing in India has turned cautious and limited partner or the part owners of funds are raising questions over the intent of the investment owing to the fact that global PE fund dipped to record lows during the second quarter of 2009.

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“Limited partners or institutional investors are increasingly becoming sceptical about their investment decisions and are questioning the intent of the General Partners,” SMC Capitals Equity Head Jagnnadham Thunuguntla said.

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PE funds are now preferring to liquidate their stake asΒ Β  capital market sentiment is improved.

The degree of scepticisim in the Indian Market has reduced to what it was few months back.

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However, with the capital market boom, PE funds are now preferring to exit via open market transactions,” Thunuguntla added.

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However, India is among the few markets wherein the PE firms are still looking at investments in times of downturn, though cautiously.

During second quarter 2009, globally 89 private equity funds reached a final close securing $79.7 billion among them. as per the latest survey.

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“The capital market bounce starting April 2009 has seen several PE (Private Equity) funds selling their investments in the open market.

The recent market bounce has given a fresh breather of life for several PE investments with impressive recovery of losses,” Thunuguntla said.

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Private equity firms are becoming cautious about making fresh investments in India with less funds flowing into this segment as institutional investors have become more sceptical in committing funds without thorough research, experts says.

Factors that Move the Interest Rates – Part 2 (MONETARY POLICY)

Monetary Policy

In previous Blog we have discussed about the major factors responsible for the change in interest rates and price of bonds indirectly.

All those three factors like Inflation, Currency and Liquidity have been touched upon in last blog.

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Now time to look into another major factor which causesΒ  movement in the interest rate. The factor i am talking about is Monetary Policy. πŸ™‚

Monetary Policy: The RBI controls liquidity largely through monetary policy instruments –

(i) CRR & SLR – CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) refers to a portion of deposits (as cash) which banks have to maintain with the RBI.

Banks are also required to invest a portion of their deposits in government securities as a part of their SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) requirements.

If either of these is increased, liquidity tightens and so interest rates harden (increase).:(

Recently, RBI has reduced both these rates to infuse liquidity in the system – CRR is 5% (down 250 bps from March ’08) and SLR is 24% (down 100 bps).

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(ii) Reverse repo rate – it is the overnight interest rate that a bank earns for lending money to the RBI in exchange for G-Secs.

A hike in reverse repo rate increases interest rates. Currently, reverse repo rate stands at 3.25%.

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(iii) Repo rate – it is the discount rate at which a central bank repurchases government securities from the commercial banks.

To temporarily expand the money supply, the central bank decreases repo rates (so that banks can swap their holdings of government securities for cash).

To contract the money supply, it increases the repo rates. The current repo rate is 4.75%.

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(iv) OMO and MSS – OMOs (Open Market Operations) are outright transactions in government securities.

When the RBI buys G-Secs, it is injecting money into the system, hence, increasing liquidity, which softens (reduces) interest rates.

When the RBI sells G-Secs, it sucks out excess money from the system i.e. reduces liquidity in the system which hardens interest rates.

MSS (Market Stabilisation Scheme) is the issuance of treasury bills and dated securities by way of auction by the RBI.

This affects interest rates in the same manner as OMOs.

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Having collected updates on where the above parameters stand, one can have a better understanding of why interest rates are at their current levels, as well as which direction they are expected to move in.

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If most of them indicate that a rise in interest rates is expected, bond prices are likely to fall in the future.

On the contrary, an expectation of a fall in interest rates means bond prices will rise.

A word of caution here though – timing interest rate changes is difficult. This is because there is a low likelihood of being able to precisely predict the movement in the factors discussed above.

So in order to minimize interest rate risk, one should ensure that the bond portfolio is diversified across various maturities.

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4 Monetary Policy: The RBI controls liquidity largely through monetary policy instruments –

(i) CRR & SLR – CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) refers to a portion of deposits (as cash) which banks have to maintain with the RBI. Banks are also required to invest a portion of their deposits in government securities as a part of their SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) requirements. If either of these is increased, liquidity tightens and so interest rates harden (increase). Recently, RBI has reduced both these rates to infuse liquidity in the system – CRR is 5% (down 250 bps from March ’08) and SLR is 24% (down 100 bps).

(ii) Reverse repo rate – it is the overnight interest rate that a bank earns for lending money to the RBI in exchange for G-Secs. A hike in reverse repo rate increases interest rates. Currently, reverse repo rate stands at 3.25%.

(iii) Repo rate – it is the discount rate at which a central bank repurchases government securities from the commercial banks. To temporarily expand the money supply, the central bank decreases repo rates (so that banks can swap their holdings of government securities for cash).

To contract the money supply, it increases the repo rates. The current repo rate is 4.75%.

(iv) OMO and MSS – OMOs (Open Market Operations) are outright transactions in government securities. When the RBI buys G-Secs, it is injecting money into the system, hence, increasing liquidity, which softens (reduces) interest rates. When the RBI sells G-Secs, it sucks out excess money from the system i.e. reduces liquidity in the system which hardens interest rates. MSS (Market Stabilisation Scheme) is the issuance of treasury bills and dated securities by way of auction by the RBI. This affects interest rates in the same manner as OMOs.

Having collected updates on where the above parameters stand, one can have a better understanding of why interest rates are at their current levels, as well as which direction they are expected to move in. If most of them indicate that a rise in interest rates is expected, bond prices are likely to fall in the future. On the contrary, an expectation of a fall in interest rates means bond prices will rise. A word of caution here though – timing interest rate changes is difficult. This is because there is a low likelihood of being able to precisely predict the movement in the factors discussed above. So in order to minimize interest rate risk, one should ensure that the bond portfolio is diversified across various maturities.