Posts Tagged ‘Reserve Bank’

Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

.

Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

.


India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

.

Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

.

Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

.

Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

.

Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com,
http://www.smctradeonline.comhttp://www.smcwealth.com

.

Share/Bookmark


ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

 

Topic is ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”.

Here, we would go through the Brief of like what are Economic Events & Indicators and important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators.

🙂

 

ECONOMIC INDICATORS… “Leading the World”

..

Economic Events & Indicators are statistics that precede an economic event.

 

The goal is to track the economy & derive a forecast for future performance.

 

Economic indicators have tremendous potential to generate volume and to move prices of commodities futures as well as the financial markets including Forex.


Tools of Construction: This would include separate sections of statistical methods including

– Calculating indices and re-basing them,

– Differences between arithmetic and geometric averages,

– Standard deviations,

– Regression analysis,

– Correlation and causation,

– Margins of error in statistics calculations and

– What this means for interpretation, subsequent revisions and why they happen.

🙂

 

Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries.

 

Examples : unemployment rate,  housing starts,  Consumer Price Index (a measure for inflation),  Consumer Leverage Ratio,  industrial production,  bankruptcies,  Gross Domestic Product,  broadband internet penetration,  retail sales,  stock market prices,  money supply changes etc;

🙂

 

The important sources of data provider for calculating & determining economic indicators are like:

– Bureau of Labor Statistics,

– Census of Construction Industries,

– Bureau of Economic Analysis &

– Reserve Bank.

🙂

 

The value of the indicator data is considered important if it presents new information, or is instrumental to drawing conclusions which couldn’t be drawn under other reports or data.

 

Each indicator is marked with “H”-“M”-“L” (High-Medium-Low), according to its level of importance, as commonly considered.

🙂

 

Next Blog we would try to know about the classified categories of Economic indicators in details and what is Time Era.

Stay Tuned for more and more on this 🙂

 

However For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

RBI And Its Policies – Part 1

Hello Friends, last month we witnessed loads of action with the RBI’s monetary policy being laid down.

However here we bring more on the RBI policies and projections.

RBI policies and projections

RBI policies and projections

 

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) laid the groundwork on Tuesday i.e. on 27th Oct in its monetary policy for a rise in interest rates by tightening credit to the commercial property sector, lifting its inflation forecast and warning of the threat of asset price bubbles.

🙂

The RBI had injected in massive liquidity in the banking system in the past one year or so to help revive the domestic economy in the aftermath of the global financial crisis.

For now, the Reserve Bank has decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 4.75 per cent, the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.25 per cent and the (Cash Reserve Ratio) CRR of banks unchanged at 5 per cent of their (NDTL).


The following measures constitute the first phase of ‘exit’:

– The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR), which has earlier been reduced from 25 per cent of NDTL to 24 per cent, is being restored to 25 per cent.

-The limit for export credit refinance facility, which was raised to 50 per cent of eligible outstanding export credit, is being returned to the pre-crisis level of 15 per cent.

The two unconventional refinance facilities:

(i) special refinance facility for scheduled commercial banks; and

(ii) special term repo facility for scheduled commercial banks [for funding to Mutual Funds (MFs), Non-banking Financial Companies (NBFCs), and Housing Finance Companies (HFCs)] are being discontinued with immediate effect.

🙂

Further, the liabilities of scheduled banks arising from transactions in Collateralized Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO) with Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) would now be subject to the maintenance of the CRR.

🙂

Stay Tuned for more on this in our coming blogs.

We would cover Monetary Projections of RBI and Economy scenario and indicators at the moment.

Sensex to Seek Direction from RBI’s Monetary Policy Review

Sensex to Seek Direction from RBI's Monetary Policy Review

Sensex to Seek Direction from RBI's Monetary Policy Review

Dalal Street will closely track the Reserve Bank‘s monetary policy review this week to seek direction, as weak global and domestic cues may continue to dampen sentiments in opening trade on Monday, experts say.

Besides, the expiry of the futures and option contracts this week is expected to keep the market volatile.

With global markets deteriorating and shares of Reliance Industries acting as a drag, market may open weak on Monday.

Marketmen said as valuations are overstretched, investors are now booking profit even at the slightest bad news.

Also, liquidity crunch is keeping frontline stocks under pressure.

On Friday, RIL scrips declined by 4.5 per cent.

“RIL, which is already reeling under uncertainty over the ongoing court case, would face further pressure. The scrip would be a dampener on the already weak market sentiment,” SMC Global Vice President Rajesh Jain said.

The Bombay Stock Exchange barometer Sensex lost three per cent, its biggest weekly fall in 11 weeks, to 16,810.81 points.

The index is up over 74 per cent so far in 2009, aided by foreign fund flows of over $14 billion.