Posts Tagged ‘Reliance Industries’

CIL sets IPO record; to list on Nov 4

India’s IPO market created history on Thursday with state-owned Coal India share issuer in the becoming the biggest country, beating Reliance Power’s 2008 initial public offering.

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At the time of going to press, the CIL issue was subscribed 15.26 times, collecting Rs 2,36,113.28 crore. The shares will debut on the market on November 4, a day before Muhurat trading that marks Diwali.

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Responding to late rush from retail investors, the company postponed the close of the issue to 9 pm.

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At the upper end of the band, CIL will be the seventh biggest Indian company by market cap, after ONGC, State Bank of India, TCS, Reliance Industries, Infosys Technologies and NTPC, based on Thursday’s closing price. CIL’s Rs 15,474 crore IPO has overtaken Reliance Power’s Rs 11,700 crore issue.

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Buoyant demand from retail and wealthy investors on the final day added to the strong response from institutional buyers. This also signalled success for the government’s upcoming share sales.

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Retail investors, who often take cues from institutions in IPOs, had put in bids for shares 1.44 times or for 28,60,44,375 shares. Retail investors will get a five per cent discount on the final issue price.

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Wealthy individuals had separately bid for 13.89 times the shares available for them.

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Bidding for the mega IPO closed on Wednesday for qualified institutional buyers, including foreign institutional investors, mutual funds and insurance firms. And for the portion reserved for them, the issue was over subscribed by 24.70 times, lead by FIIs.

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The IPO has generated a demand of 493,38,72,050 shares from FIIs. Calculated at the upper end of the price band, this demand is worth Rs 1,20,879.86 crore and at the lower end worth Rs 1,11,012.12 crore. Even at the low end, the demand surpasses the record Rs 1.08 lakh crore pumped in by FIIs into the capital
market.

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India’s largest new issue came amid a flurry of big deals in Asia.

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At the top of its price range, Coal India would be valued at 15.7 times trailing earnings. The issue also got the highest demand for an Indian issue, helped by qualified institutional buyers.

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The demand from QIBs for CIL was at Rs 1,73,398 crore with 100 per cent application amount, compared with Rs 1,88,923 crore with 10 per cent margin for Reliance Power IPO. In case of Reliance Power, the QIB portion was covered 30.68 times.

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“The response to Coal India IPO, from all classes of investors, has surpassed even the most optimistic predictions. It has caught even the biggest optimists by surprise,” SMC Global Securities strategist Jagannadham Thunuguntla said in a note.

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He said the response puts the government on target to achieve its divestment target of Rs 40,000 crore in fiscal 2011 and even exceed it if other issues like the follow-on offering of Power Grid, Steel Authority of India, ONGC, Shipping Corporation of India, Indian Oil Corporation and IPO of Manganese Ore fall in place.

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The government, which has collected Rs 17,500 crore from public issues, including Coal India, may raise its divestment target and get over Rs 58,500 crore, SMC Capital added.

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At the upper end of price range, Coal India issue is worth Rs 15,474 crore and at the lower end it would fetch about Rs 14,211.81 crore.

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The upper band would also give it a market capitalisation of Rs 1.54 lakh crore ($34.7 billion).

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Meanwhile, the broader market recovered from a two-day slump and closed up 1.95 per cent at 20,260.58 points. Now all eyes will be on whether it will be a strong listing on the eve of Diwali.

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COMBINING TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WITH OTHER RESEARCH TECHNIQUES

Though technical analysis as a research tool can be used in isolation but for the betterment of subject under study i.e. financial markets; we can employ other research tools in combination to technical for the best possible outcomes. Due to lack of technical knowhow, people opt for one of the many research tools available to us. On the other hand, markets are globalizing and probability of generating return is diminishing with the every passing day so to surpass the competition, one should have the basic knowledge of the other research tools as well so that they can deploy the same as and when required. Technical analysis is concerned with when and how to place money. It determines the optimal timing for a position and conclusions about how long to stay in a particular trade have significant importance for the kind of derivatives structure one may use.

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Using derivative instruments requires strong background as the nature of the product has several advantages and at the same time disadvantages if used without the proper understanding.

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So by combining the aforesaid research methodology, there are various trading possibility arises which ensure sustainability of return despite fluctuating market conditions. In emerging markets, these concepts are getting popular for the consistent return with minimum risk. Derivatives help to hedge the position in the underlying to avoid unmanageable losses.

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For success in any market condition, one need to know the prevailing trend which we can make out through technical analysis now comes the derivative part that what we can do within that trend for maximizing the return with the minimum risk. There are N numbers of trade possibilities once you generalize the market direction well. Technically, there are tools like Moving average, which indicates the prevailing trend once we overlay above the same on price chart so if the trend is up the bullish strategy like Bull call spread, call buying and many more. In other words, there are techniques for every market condition so understanding of derivative will give you an edge as the major segment of the market participant is still not clear over the profitable usability of the same so all you need is confirm the prevailing trend whether its’ up, down or sideways and design the strategy accordingly.

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To start with, it does require study of different terminology and their implications from the derivative segment that will ultimately be fruit full in future.

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By taking an example, the concept will be crystal clear. In the recent past, I have employed one of those techniques for trading Reliance industries. The related analysis is explained with the chart shown from the snap shot of the report dated 09th June, 2010.

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On the weekly charts, it was trading in uptrend channel with the slow pace of inclination. It tested the lower band of the channel thrice in the past and was trading around the same zone. With the help of Bollinger band, we noticed that the bottle neck pattern was formed which indicated possibility of sharp move either side in the near future with rise in volatility.

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Accordingly, we recommended buying straddle. Strategy – Buy CA 1000 June@ 30 and Buy PA 1000 June @ 21 so the total cost of building strategy was 30600 {total premium paid (i.e. 30+21= 51) * lot size of 300*2}for the target of overall rise in the premium paid by `20-30 (i.e. – `71-81) with the stop loss of decline in premium paid by Rs 10. ( i.e. `41) Though the overall trend was sideways but we witnessed that such opportunity may arise due to rise in volatility and trigger the position accordingly.

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Within a week, it outperformed the above mentioned target by good margin. The idea is to enhance the base so that the probability of beaten down in adverse situation reduces. Better defense is more important than attack and derivative provide the same against the market odds when one fails to realize that the deterioration may erode the capital if not tackled on time so it make sense to combine the derivative strategy with technical to get the optimal returns with calculated risk.

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Fiscal deficit at $65.7 billon for Apr-Nov: Govt

The fiscal deficit of India for the period between April to November stood at Rs 3.06 trillion ($65.7 billion), or 76.4 percent of the full-year target, the government said in a statement on Thursday. The tax receipts stood at Rs 2.33 trillion and a total expenditure stood at Rs 6.22 trillion for the first eight months of the financial year 2009/10.

In July, the government had forecasted fiscal deficit of Rs 4 trillion, or 6.8 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), for 2009/10.

The finance minister Pranab Mukherjee earlier this month had said that the fiscal deficit would not cross the target of 6.8 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). With the prevailing trends in the receipts and expenditure, along with better than expected economy performance in the second quarter of the current fiscal, it is expected that the fiscal deficit will remain with the estimate of 6.8 per cent.

However, the direct tax collections by the government increased by a marginal 3.7% to Rs 1.83 lakh in the first 8 months of this fiscal. Further, in the personal income tax segment, the government collected Rs 70,262 crore, up 4.53% while in November, the tax collections were nearly similar to last year as the mop-up was Rs 10,375 crore.

Moreover, the corporate tax collections declined by about 30% to Rs 3,214 crore against Rs 4,561 crore last fiscal while in the April-November period, the collections by way of the Security Transaction Tax stood at Rs 4,349 crore, up 4.44%.

The Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, yesterday stated that the Indian economy cannot sustain a high fiscal deficit for very long and it is, however, still too early to pull out of the fiscal stimulus.

“We shall have to strike a balance between the requirement of the economy and also the capacity of the economy to bear this level of fiscal deficit and borrowing,” the Finance Minister said on the sidelines of a Corporation Bank event.

India’s Wealth Lies in Its Cities

It was once believed that India lives in its villages.

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Now it is clear that India’s wealth lies in its cities, or more specifically, Mumbai.

 

India's Wealth Lies in Its Cities

A study conducted by Delhi-based SMC Global classified companies geographically on the location of their registered offices.

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It reveals that Mumbai-registered companies account for 36.28% of the total BSE 500 market cap.

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Some of the prominent names based out of Mumbai are Reliance Industries, L&T, HDFC and SBI.

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Also, out of the market capitalisation ascribed to Maharashtra which has the highest market capitalization among the states — more than 90% originates from Mumbai.

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In fact, Mumbai and six other cities account for 85.71% of the total market capitalisation of BSE 500.

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With Delhi NCR (National Capital Region, which includes satellite cities such as Gurgaon and Noida along with the capital) contributing 27.82%.

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After the financial and political capitals, state capitals take the fore.

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Bangalore lays claim to 7.10%,

Hyderabad to 4.86% and Kolkata accounts for 3.83%,

while Ahmedabad and Chennai account for 3.35% and 2.47%, respectively.

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On a state-wide basis, five states in combination with Delhi NCR and Maharashtra account for 94.20% of the total market cap.

A total of 66.17% of the index’s market cap can be traced to Maharashtra and Delhi NCR.

While the latter accounts for 38.35%, Delhi accounts 27.82%.

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Karnataka accounts for 7.74%, Gujarat, 7.48%, Andhra Pradesh is at 4.95% and Tamil Nadu at 4.02%, while Bengal has 3.83%.

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Though the big Indian companies have a pan-India presence with factories or plants located across the country, they tend to have registered offices in metros.

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That is because of the ease of operations and presence of other corporate houses, suggested the study.

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“The traditional metro cities have accumulation advantage.

Its ultimately the money which brings in more money.

As the Indian economy keeps evolving, tier-2 and tier-3 cities may catchup gradually, to bring-in more equitable distribution of wealth across the country.”

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…said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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RIL See Retail Sector as Major Value Creator : Ambani

RIL See Retail Sector as an Major Value Creator : Ambani

Reliance Industries has identified retail sector as an important component of its five-platform roadmap for value creation.

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The other value creators include conventional and renewable energy space, innovation and rural transformation, RIL chairman Mukesh Ambani said.


Reliance’s efforts would be on expanding the edifice created by Reliance Retail at the customer end and reinforcing supply chain and logistics,” the chairman said.

Ambani added that Reliance Retail would expand to new cities, markets and form strategic alliances.

This would be done through nearly 1,000 stores, while it has 900 stores across 86 cities.

🙂


The retail company has run up losses over Rs 450 crore in last fiscal.

Ambani said RIL would diversity its conventional energy space with new accumulations in three years.

RIL proposes to accelerate their campaign in the Krishna-Godavari basin,as per the chairman.


Meanwhile, the gas production levels have crossed six billion cubic metres and the D6 field is slated for plateau production by the second half of the year 2010.

Oil production from the D26 field has 2.8 million barrels with daily peak production expected by the end of the year.


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With current cash balance of nearly Rs 19,420 crore, the company expects to be debt free in 21 months, Ambani said.

Even in difficult economic environment, RIL’s capital expenditure was Rs 24,713 crore ($4.9 billion).

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However, the stock market was not enthused.


On the BSE, RIL stock saw a marginal drop of 0.65 per cent to close at Rs 2,133.75 per share.

“Whatever Mr Ambani has said is old. There is nothing to cheer investors.However, overall sentiment is positive.”

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head, SMC Capital, and other market analysts feels so.

🙂

Market to Go Volatile This Week, Due to Host of Factors

Market to Go Volatile This Week, Due to Host of Factors

The Market is likely to remain volatile this week as a host of triggers are set to guide investor sentiments. These factors are :

1. Expiry of the October series of derivatives contracts,

2. September quarter results of some key companies such as Reliance Industries and

3. the RBI money policy review.

🙂

Global cues may also induce some choppiness in the market.

Noted Market analyst, Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equities at SMC Capital quoted that;

“The market is facing heavy pressure.  There a wide gap between fundamentals and stock valuations.  The second quarter results have come up less than what most investors had anticipated”.

He also added “though the average profits of companies, which have so far reported second quarter results, have grown 30-40 per cent on cost-cutting measures, growth in net sales has been sluggish“.

Also Thunuguntla said that “we have huge liquidity in the market thanks to the 100 per cent rally and this has helped the market sustain at this level till now. No doubt, fundamentals are catching up with valuations slowly”.

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Thunuguntla said the market was in a consolidation phase.

“It may remain volatile this week ahead of the expiry of near-month futures and options contracts and the RBI policy review.”

On the global front, the US will disclose its third quarter GDP figures on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the rate of inflation jumped to 1.21 per cent for the week ended October 10 against 0.92 per cent a week ago.

The BSE Sensex slipped 512.01 points, or 2.96 per cent, last week to close at 16,810.81.01.

The Nifty index on the NSE dipped 145.10 points, or 2.82 per cent, to end the week at 4,997.05.

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According to other observers, Nifty has a support at 4,900.
Market sentiment may get hurt if this level is breached.

Thunuguntla also said investors would keenly follow the quarterly results of Reliance Industries as well as global cues.

“Amid the fight between the Ambani brothers, investors will watch the RIL results keenly.  Global cues will also be followed after a few bad economic numbers from the US last week,” he said.

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Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) on Friday remained net sellers, offloading equities worth Rs 295.70 crore, according to figures available at the website of market regulator Sebi.

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Statements by Ambani Brothers Pushes Shares Up

Statements by Ambani brothers nudge shares up

Statements by Ambani brothers nudge shares up

The shares of companies in the respective stables of the two feuding Ambani brothers opened on a higher note Monday, a day after the olive branch from younger Anil, that was welcomed as a “positive indicator” by Mukesh.

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Reliance Natural Resources, the energy arm of Anil Ambani group that is fighting a legal battle on gas supplies with the Mukesh-led group, was ruling at Rs. 86.35 with a gain of 4.04 percent, an hour into trading, after touching a high of Rs. 87.15.

Reliance Industries, the flagship of the Mukesh-led group, was quoting 1.58 percent higher at Rs. 2,133 after touching Rs. 2,140.00, data with the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) showed.

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Analysts said though the movement forward was positive it was more in the form of a token rise, as many issues remained unresolved, including the crucial matter over supplies of gas from Reliance Industries to the Anil Ambani group.

“There are too many ifs and buts,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equities head of leading brokerage and capital markets consultancy SMC Capital.

“Till the market gets a clear indication, these developments may not make too much of an impact.”

After a pilgrimage to two holy shrines Sunday, Anil sent a conciliatory message to elder brother Mukesh, saying there was ample scope to end their dispute amicably.

“There can be no better gift to my mother, Smt. Kokilaben Ambani, in her 75th year, and to the legacy of our beloved father, Shri Dhirubhai Ambani, the proud creator of the Reliance Group,” Anil said after the pilgrimage to Badrinath and Kedarnath.

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The move was welcomed by the other side, which said there can be no contentious issue that cannot be resolved by mutual dialogue.

But the statement by Reliance Industries also made it clear that the dispute over gas has to be settled by the Supreme Court.

Weekly Equity Update 21st-28th August :)

Weekly Update

After closing almost flat in penultimate week, in the week gone by markets closed in green terrain following the global markets which rallied to 10-month highs buoyed by renewed hopes that the global economic recovery is gathering pace and is pulling out of its deepest recession since the 1930s.

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Closer home, revival of monsoon rains, fresh buying by FIIs and firm European market boosted sentiment.

Moreover the statement made by FM that government expects GDP growth to accelerate to over 8% in 2010-11, with the economy showing signs of recovery, acted as a booster to markets.

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However it is expected that higher food prices will lead to WPI inflation accelerating to 6% in the fiscal year to March 2010.

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On the world economic front, the US economy shrank at an annual pace of 1% between April and June 2009, unchanged from an initial estimate released last month.

From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

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Japan‘s exports tumbled and stood at 35.7% for a tenth straight month in July as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

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Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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Once again commodities have shown the buoyancy that they can hold the support.

One or two day’s correction in the prices couldn’t break the trend of commodities. However upside is limited.

Resembling last week, current week as well is jam-packed of event risk as GDP data of many countries will release which will make commodities volatile throughout the week accordingly.

Precious metals may trade in a range with upward bias.

Back at home, to see more upside it has to trade above the level of 15000 in MCX.

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In agro commodities, buying may return in spices as recent fall in the prices has made Indian parity more competitive in international market.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

It seems that currently US markets are determining the overall trend and our markets might be linked up with US markets now as we have broken above 4730 Nifty.

🙂

If US markets don’t react, then we should be seeing higher levels ahead.

Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

🙂

EQUITY TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES


From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

Weekly Equity Update 14th-21st August :)

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE1


The week gone by started on a weak note and domestic market nosedived deep into red terrain on huge selling pressure over the ground as unsatisfactory US consumer sentiment report weakened concerns about the recovery in global economy.

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In addition, weak Asian markets along with negative European markets also took huge beating on the bourses.

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Furthermore a poor monsoon rattled the markets, raising fears it could hurt economic prospects of corporates. However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week.

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In this year poor rains have raised worries about growth in India’s domestic-demand driven economy.

But a ray of hope was shown by FM saying that the government will take all the required steps to control drought.

🙂

India has attracted 8% higher FDI to $2.58 billion in June 2009, from $2.39 billion in June 2008.

FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 35,773.40 crore. Inflation for the week ended 8th August stood at -1.53%with the previous week’s annual decline of -1.74%.

🙂

MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up.

Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Sensex has support between 15000-14700 levels and Nifty between 4450-4350 levels. 🙂

However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week!!

Further more Global markets will also play a pivotal role in setting the direction. Inadequate monsoon rains may continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 😦

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TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures :

Weekly BSE Gainers- Losers update🙂

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES

🙂

NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

After falling for three weeks in a row, inflation rate rose to -1.53 per cent for the week ended August 8, primarily due to dearer primary articles, especially food items.

The inflation rate for the previous week ended August 1 was -1.74 per cent and stood at 12.82 per cent during the corresponding period in 2008.

🙂

Oil & Gas

·Reliance Industries may sell part of its stakes in some of the overseas oil and gas blocks to lower its exploration risk.

RIL, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Reliance Exploration and Production DMZ, holds interests in 15 overseas exploration blocks and is considering farming-out a part of its stake.

🙂

Realty/ Infrastructure

DLF, the country’s largest realty firm, bagged a 350-acre plot for Rs 1,750 crore in Haryana for developing a recreation and leisure project, making it one of the costliest land deals in recent times.

🙂

Information Technologies

·Geometric Ltd has announced the release of version 2.0 of its visualisation product, 3DPaintBrush.

This is an innovative visualisation and rendering tool that helps create near photo-realistic images, animations, and videos from 2D models in real-time.

🙂




Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up. Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Market to track rains, IIP data and global cues

Share market India

The market is likely to track the Monsoon, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and global cues for direction this week.

🙂

Market might fall to 14,000-14,500 levels if both the monsoon and global cues turn out to be negative this week.
Expectations are capital goods stocks to perform better in the short run.

🙂

Investors are likely to pay heed to global cues and news related to the monsoon and IIP numbers.

If both domestic and global cues are negative, then we may see the Sensex taking support at 14,100.

A bad monsoon may pull down growth by a quarter. So, rain-related news has high significance.

Stocks in the capital goods counter and Reliance Industries may perform better in the short term. 🙂

🙂

Last week’s selling spree by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) was due to fears of a weak monsoon and profit booking.

“The weak monsoon is a big worry right now. It can spook investor’s sentiment.  Apart from this, investors are likely to track global cues while the numbers on IIP will also be keenly watched. 🙂
The selling spree by the FIIs in the past few sessions could be attributed to profit taking on account of good values as the market has risen more than 100 per cent since March 9, from 8,000 to 16,000 levels,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equities at SMC Capitals.

Thunuguntla said all sectors are showing signs of recovery and, hence, there are less chances of any major shock from the IIP numbers.   “However, poor rainfall and the subsequent fall in rural demand may put pressure on some sectors,” he said.

😦