Posts Tagged ‘rainfall in India’

Rabi Crops Get a Lifeline on Late Rains :)

Lets Get to know of the latest Agri updates in the country 😀


Rabi Crops Get a Lifeline on Late Rains:

Considering cumulative rainfall from June to September, expected retention of moisture in soil between October and December, and recharge in the ground water level, the agriculture ministry expects no major dip in the coverage of food crops in the coming rabi season.


As for other rabi crops in 2009, the ministry sets the rice production target at 14.5 mt, for jowar at 3.9 mt and barley at 1.6 mt, which are almost similar to the last year’s level.

According to the fourth round of estimate by the ministry, rice production in the last rabi season was 14.6 mt, barley 1.5 mt and jowar 4.2 mt.


At the same time, it has asked all wheat growing states to ensure that sowing of wheat is completed by the end of November and to see that maximum areas are covered with high yielding and high temperature tolerant varieties.

In Other major Agri Updates we can see that Monsoon has withdrawn and has left 22% shortfall in the country.

An erratic monsoon, which left the country 22 per cent short of normal seasonal rainfall and caused concern about the kharif harvest, has finally begun to withdraw, almost three weeks later than normal.


The total monsoon rainfall this year till September 23 was estimated by the IMD at 66.83 cm, about 22 per cent below the normal level of 85.87 cm for the period.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the withdrawal line today passed through Ganganagar, Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer in Rajasthan.

However, many other parts of the country will still continue to get rain.

The maximum deficiency is in the north-west (34 per cent), followed by the north-east (25 per cent), central India (19 per cent) and southern peninsula (8 per cent).

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Monsoon Deficit Narrows But Just Slightly

monsoon deficit

The rainfall in India seems to have improved a little with the monsoon shortage being at 28% below average for the week ended August 16.

While as on August 12, the overall rainfall in the country was 29% below normal.


However, rainfall during June 1 to August 16 was at 434.6 mm against the historical average of 602.1 mm while the rainfall in the northwest was 40% below average as on August 16 while in northeast it eased slightly to 32%.

However, the shortfall in central India increased to 21%.


The Impact Of Significant Below Normal Monsoon:

The current situation definitely does not bode well for the agriculture output.

While in the past, the drought like situation has severely impacted the economic growth (1%-2%), this time the impact could be lower due to:

1. Agri contribution to the overall GDP has been coming down and now stands at ~17% (v/s > 45% in 1970s and > 30% in 1990s)

2. Irrigated land to total land ratio has been improving,

3. National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and Farm loan waiver,

4. Significant increase in budgetary allocation to rural development.


However, if the overall monsoon remains 20-25% below normal and the spatial distribution does not improve, it is likely that FY10 GDP forecasts may be revised downward by 50-100bps.

Increased spending by the Govt and faster implementation of some of the infrastructure projects may limit the damage to ex-agri GDP growth as mentioned above.


However, Worst affected monsoon deficit areas will have problems of food availability, employment, and drinking water.


Moreover, India is at a risk of 60-100 basis points drop in GDP growth forecast of 6.4% for FY 2010 while agriculture growth is decreasing by around 5-8% in the current fiscal.


In addition, rice production during the kharif season this year may decrease by about 10 million tonnes due to declining monsoon in the country while it produced nearly 100 million tonnes of rice in both rabi and kharif seasons in 2008-09.

However, some shortage in production of oilseeds and sugarcane is also expected.


However, macroeconomic consequences may not be very serious due to the weak monsoon owing to the reasons stated above.


The Impact Of Significant Below Normal Monsoon: