Posts Tagged ‘profits’

HOW IMPORTANT IS INTEREST RATE?

Essentially, interest is nothing more than the cost someone pays for the use of someone else’s money. In India, an individual willing to purchase a home uses bank’s money (through a mortgage) and in return pays interest to the bank for the privilege or the credit card user borrows money for the short term in order to buy something right away. But the very question that comes to everyone’s mind is how to determine where the rates are heading & what impact will it have?

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So in order to find where the interest rates are heading all one needs to do is to look at the deposits & loans advances of the banks. If banks credit growth is more than its deposits then banks may raise the deposit rates or may increase the lending rates in order to match the asset & liability mismatch. When the Central Bank (RBI) feels that the credit growth has started picking up & is higher than its target levels, RBI tinkers with its policy rates gives signals to the commercial banks to review the interest rates be it on the deposit front or on the lending front.

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Effects of the rising interest rates On individuals

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The first indirect effect of an increased rate is that banks increase the rates that they charge their customers to borrow money. Individuals are affected through increases to credit card and mortgage interest rates, especially if they carry a floating interest rate. This has the effect of decreasing the amount of money consumers can spend. After all, people still have to pay their EMI’s, and when these installments become more expensive, households are left with less disposable income.

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On the Corporates financials

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Corporates too borrow money from banks to run and expand their operations. When the banks make borrowing more expensive, corporates may  not borrow at all or may not borrow at the same pace that they were doing when the rates were lower. Less business spending can slow down the growth of a company, resulting in decreases in profit.

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Even businesses are also indirectly affected as a result of the actions of the individual consumers as individuals are left with less disposable income which affects the company’s top & bottom lines (that is, revenue and profits). Apart from having an indirect affect businesses are affected in a more direct way as well.

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On GDP Growth

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The government essentially has two weapons in its arsenal to help guide the economy towards a path of stable growth without excessive inflation; monetary policy and fiscal policy. Fiscal policy comes from the government in the form of taxation and federal budgeting policies. While fiscal policy can be very effective in specific cases to spur growth in the economy, most market watchers look to monetary policy to do most of the heavy lifting in keeping the economy in a stable growth pattern. Monetary policy is defined as any action to limit or increase the amount of money that is circulating in the economy. That means the central bank (RBI) can make money easier or harder to come by, thereby encouraging spending to spur the economy and constricting access to capital when growth rates seem to be approaching unsustainable levels.

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Stock Price Effects

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Clearly, changes in the rates affect the behavior of consumers and business; hence the stock market is also affected. Remember that one method of valuing a company is to take the sum of all the expected future cash flows from that company discounted back to the present. To arrive at a stock’s price, take the sum of the future discounted cash flow and divide it by the number of shares available. This price fluctuates as a result of the different expectations that people have about the company at different times and are willing to buy or sell shares at different prices. If the company is seen as cutting back on its growth spending or is making less profit – either through higher debt expenses or less revenue from consumers then, the estimated amount of future cash flows will drop. All else being equal, this will lower the price of the company’s stock.

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Investment Effects

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With a lowered expectation in the growth and future cash flows of the company, investors will not get as much growth from stock price appreciation, making stock ownership less desirable. Furthermore, investing in stocks can be viewed as too risky as compared to other investments. When the central bank raises its rate, newly offered government securities, such T- bills and bonds, are often viewed as the safest investments and will usually experience a corresponding increase in interest rates. In other words, the “risk-free” rate of return goes up, making these investments more desirable.

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Conclusion

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We should keep in mind, however, that these factors and results are all interrelated. What we described above are very broad interactions, which can play out in innumerable ways. Interest rates are not the only determinant of stock prices and there are many considerations that go into stock prices and the general trend of the market – an increased interest rate is only one of them. Therefore, one can never say with confidence that an interest rate hike will have an overall negative effect on stock prices.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

“Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like what is seasonal pattern and reasons for studying seasonal variation.

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Seasonal Index……“Time is Money”


Now we would see the analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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The Analysis

Crop prices tend to follow a general seasonal pattern of their own, identifying the major turning points in prices, setting their seasonal low at harvest followed by a post-harvest rally, where the supply of the crop is fixed and consumption gradually takes that supply, causing prices to rise.

However, major market shocks or powerful influencing factors like monsoon, production figures, stock levels & demand may significantly alter seasonal patterns & the prices may experience the special condition.

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This is what happened with the Guar prices.

The ‘Guar’ legume plant is rain-fed monsoon crop.

Monsoon has been the decisive factor for the trend in guar futures.

The sowing period is July and August right after the first shower of the monsoon and the harvesting period is September and November.

Fresh arrivals of the crop from Haryana and Punjab begin immediately after the first week of September and continue till the month of December.

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One example would be redeploying capital in Guar futures in two phases by taking selling positions from April as monsoon sets in – boosting the production levels, and buying in the month of June when the rally begins.

If we follow the price index & compare it with the actual, then it is seen that the prices have followed the path of the seasonal trend many times in this year & have given their best highs from month of June to August.

The seasonality shown in the below graphs depicts that the positive wave has given a satisfying return on investment in both of these commodities, & the strategy adopted of “Sell in April” makes this clear.


Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual

Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual



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Again, the investors taking fresh buying positions from the end of June & holding till the end of the year have had always hard-earned profits.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Points to Remember while Selling Stocks – Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”. 🙂


Points to remember while selling stock

Points to remember while selling stock

 

Buying a stock is simple, but Selling is actually harder as it requires regulation, understandable thoughts, and a tight rein on one’s emotions.

The ongoing optimism, slow economic revival, positive signs on the global front and high expectations from the stable government at home have forced bulls to give up their lethargic activities and to march northward.

Many investors who had seen the value of their stocks hit rock bottom and are now facing dilemma whether to sell or should they hold on? :O

Investors often face problems to take right decisions in volatile market as markets could head either way.

Wouldn’t it be disheartening if the markets rallied northwards, the day after you sold your stocks?

What if the markets come crashing down tomorrow, depriving you of the opportunity to enhance profits?

So, the decision to sell is critical.

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Some of the points when to sell your stocks:

Prima facie, if there is any drastic change in fundamental of a company, this should be the only reason to sell stock.

But a depth research has to be done before taking any decision.

Changes includes;

-restructuring of its business model,

-different business focus and directions.

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FIRST THREE POINTS :

1. Margins Crashed

Margins are the profit that a company makes on its sales.

Rising gross margins tell us that a company is reducing production costs or raising prices.

Conversely, deteriorating margins say either that production costs are increasing and the company can’t raise prices proportionally or that the company is cutting prices in an attempt to maintain marketshare.

If there are expenses related to a new product’s introduction then margins might fall for inoffensive reasons.

Falling margins, either gross or operating, often signal a declining competitive position. Thus it’s important to check both.

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2.Is There Any Drastic Change In Company’s Management?

If people in top management of the company say director or president who are liable for a company’s success begin to go away, there might be a few negative implications for the future outlook of that company as an investor.

You must look into and find out the root cause and also to see how much it could impact you.

If negative prospects, investor should sell the stock and should relocate the funds into a similar company that has stronger and more constant management.

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3. What First Fascinated You To The Stock, No Longer Applies

For example, let’s suppose that you bought a stock of a health care company because of its innovative products in the pharmaceutical field and all of a sudden, it loses a crucial patent for a life-saving medicine.

This may result in a decrease of market share in its industry, which might lead to a reduction in future profits (resulting in a decline in the value of its stock).

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Stay Tuned for more on this where we would touch upon other major points needed to keep in mind by investors before making any Buy and sell decision.

Note : For More Finance Gyan, Latest Industry, Stock Market, Economy News and Updates, please click here

Downward Movement Hits Indian Equities Markets

Downward Movement Hits Indian Equities Markets

Downward Movement Hits Indian Equities Markets

Indian equities markets entered into a consolidation zone with analysts terming the downward movement as long expected.

A benchmark index fell 5.44 percent from its last weekly close and ended trade below the 16,000-mark.

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The 30-share sensitive index (Sensex) ended 914.53 points, or 5.44 percent lower, at 15,896.28 points at the weekly close Friday, as opposed to the previous week’s close at 16,810.81 points.

The broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE), too slipped, closing at 4,711.7 points, down 5.7 percent from its last weekly close.

However, companies with large-to-medium market capitalization saw greater selling with the BSE midcap index ending 7.36 percent lower and the BSE smallcap index losing 8.01 percent over the last week.

“This consolidation was expected anyways as the valuations were not commensurate with the earnings of corporates. To an extent a correction in valuations was warranted,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equities head of brokerage and capital markets consultancy SMC Capital.

The markets started on a cautious note Monday ahead of the Reserve Bank of India‘s mid-year policy review Tuesday.

The Sensex ended a volatile day at 16,740.50 points — 70.31 points or 0.42 percent lower than Friday’s close.

The Nifty followed a similar trajectory and ended in negative at 4,970.9 points, down 0.52 percent.

Both benchmark indices nosedived Tuesday as the RBI indicated in its policy review that it would start tightening the monetary policy and look at exiting the stimulus measures.

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Data with markets watchdog Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) showed that foreign funds were net sellers during the week, having sold scrips worth $12.8 million.

The top gainers this week on the Sensex were

Tata Motors (up 7.2 percent),
Ranbaxy Labs (up 4.8 percent),
Wipro (up 2.9 percent),
Grasim (up 1.6 percent) and
Hindustan Unilever (up 1 percent).

The top losers were :

DLF (down 18.5 percent),
Reliance Capital (down 14.5 percent),
Reliance Infrastructure (down 14.2 percent),
Hindalco (down 13.9 percent) and
Reliance Power (down 12.9 percent).

“Broadly speaking only about one percent of the quarterly results show a sound top line growth. Profits might have increased, but that is not because of increase in core operations – cost cutting and other income have contributed towards it,” said Thunuguntla.

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Industry Life Cycle

Industry life Cycle

In general, an industry will traverse through 5 stages:


1. Pioneering development:

It is characterized by modest sales growth and huge development costs.

Consequently, profits are either negligible or are in fact negative.

2. Accelerating Growth:

At this point, the industry product is gaining wider acceptance.

Hence, it is very likely that demand for this new product is outstripping supply, as the number of firms in the industry is still relatively low.

Consequently, profit margins will tend to be very high for the existing firms.

3. Mature Growth:

The abnormal high profits of the previous stage will likely attract new entrants into the industry.

As a result, supply will begin to catch up with demand, just as the growth in sales stops accelerating.

4. Stabilization (or Market Maturity):

At this stage, both supply and demand stabilize such that the growth rate of the industry now matches that of the economy as a whole.

This phase tends to be the longest of all the industry life stages because in this phase, there is neither an incentive for new firms to enter the industry nor an incentive for existing firms to exit it.

5. Decline:

As new products are introduced from other industries, the demand for the target industry’s product will begin to decline.

As a result, profitability will begin to deteriorate.

How to make money in shares!

How to make money in shares!

Everyone wants a piece of the stock market. And why not?

But do you know how shares reward an investor?

If you are a shareholder, there are two ways you can benefit from the profits of a company: capital appreciation or dividend.

Read on to understand how shares reward you.

Dividends, dividends!

Usually, a company distributes part of the profit it earns as dividend.

Say a company earned a profit of Rs 1 crore (Rs 10 million) in 2004-05.

It keeps half that amount within the company. This is used for a variety of purposes — buying more machinery, land or raw materials, building a new factory or setting up a new office. It could even be used to repay loans.

The other half is to be distributed as dividend.

Assume the company has 10,000 shares. This would mean half the profit — ie Rs 50 lakh (Rs 5 million) — would be divided by 10,000 shares.

So each share would earn Rs 500. The dividend would then be Rs 500 per share.

If you own 100 shares of the company, you get a cheque of Rs 50,000 (100 shares x Rs 500) from the company.