Posts Tagged ‘private equity investment’

Institutional Investors have become more sceptical in committing funds!

Equity Head

Private equity firms are becoming cautious about making fresh investments in India with less funds flowing into this segment as institutional investors have become more skeptical in committing funds without thorough research, experts says.

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The rush for PE investments into India has slowdown a bit at present.

Managers are studying the companies more carefully before making any new investment commitment as of now.

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PE funds investing in India has turned cautious and limited partner or the part owners of funds are raising questions over the intent of the investment owing to the fact that global PE fund dipped to record lows during the second quarter of 2009.

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“Limited partners or institutional investors are increasingly becoming sceptical about their investment decisions and are questioning the intent of the General Partners,” SMC Capitals Equity Head Jagnnadham Thunuguntla said.

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PE funds are now preferring to liquidate their stake asΒ Β  capital market sentiment is improved.

The degree of scepticisim in the Indian Market has reduced to what it was few months back.

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However, with the capital market boom, PE funds are now preferring to exit via open market transactions,” Thunuguntla added.

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However, India is among the few markets wherein the PE firms are still looking at investments in times of downturn, though cautiously.

During second quarter 2009, globally 89 private equity funds reached a final close securing $79.7 billion among them. as per the latest survey.

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“The capital market bounce starting April 2009 has seen several PE (Private Equity) funds selling their investments in the open market.

The recent market bounce has given a fresh breather of life for several PE investments with impressive recovery of losses,” Thunuguntla said.

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Private equity firms are becoming cautious about making fresh investments in India with less funds flowing into this segment as institutional investors have become more sceptical in committing funds without thorough research, experts says.

Factors that Move the Interest Rates – Part 2 (MONETARY POLICY)

Monetary Policy

In previous Blog we have discussed about the major factors responsible for the change in interest rates and price of bonds indirectly.

All those three factors like Inflation, Currency and Liquidity have been touched upon in last blog.

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Now time to look into another major factor which causesΒ  movement in the interest rate. The factor i am talking about is Monetary Policy. πŸ™‚

Monetary Policy: The RBI controls liquidity largely through monetary policy instruments –

(i) CRR & SLR – CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) refers to a portion of deposits (as cash) which banks have to maintain with the RBI.

Banks are also required to invest a portion of their deposits in government securities as a part of their SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) requirements.

If either of these is increased, liquidity tightens and so interest rates harden (increase).:(

Recently, RBI has reduced both these rates to infuse liquidity in the system – CRR is 5% (down 250 bps from March ’08) and SLR is 24% (down 100 bps).

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(ii) Reverse repo rate – it is the overnight interest rate that a bank earns for lending money to the RBI in exchange for G-Secs.

A hike in reverse repo rate increases interest rates. Currently, reverse repo rate stands at 3.25%.

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(iii) Repo rate – it is the discount rate at which a central bank repurchases government securities from the commercial banks.

To temporarily expand the money supply, the central bank decreases repo rates (so that banks can swap their holdings of government securities for cash).

To contract the money supply, it increases the repo rates. The current repo rate is 4.75%.

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(iv) OMO and MSS – OMOs (Open Market Operations) are outright transactions in government securities.

When the RBI buys G-Secs, it is injecting money into the system, hence, increasing liquidity, which softens (reduces) interest rates.

When the RBI sells G-Secs, it sucks out excess money from the system i.e. reduces liquidity in the system which hardens interest rates.

MSS (Market Stabilisation Scheme) is the issuance of treasury bills and dated securities by way of auction by the RBI.

This affects interest rates in the same manner as OMOs.

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Having collected updates on where the above parameters stand, one can have a better understanding of why interest rates are at their current levels, as well as which direction they are expected to move in.

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If most of them indicate that a rise in interest rates is expected, bond prices are likely to fall in the future.

On the contrary, an expectation of a fall in interest rates means bond prices will rise.

A word of caution here though – timing interest rate changes is difficult. This is because there is a low likelihood of being able to precisely predict the movement in the factors discussed above.

So in order to minimize interest rate risk, one should ensure that the bond portfolio is diversified across various maturities.

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4 Monetary Policy: The RBI controls liquidity largely through monetary policy instruments –

(i) CRR & SLR – CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) refers to a portion of deposits (as cash) which banks have to maintain with the RBI. Banks are also required to invest a portion of their deposits in government securities as a part of their SLR (Statutory Liquidity Ratio) requirements. If either of these is increased, liquidity tightens and so interest rates harden (increase). Recently, RBI has reduced both these rates to infuse liquidity in the system – CRR is 5% (down 250 bps from March ’08) and SLR is 24% (down 100 bps).

(ii) Reverse repo rate – it is the overnight interest rate that a bank earns for lending money to the RBI in exchange for G-Secs. A hike in reverse repo rate increases interest rates. Currently, reverse repo rate stands at 3.25%.

(iii) Repo rate – it is the discount rate at which a central bank repurchases government securities from the commercial banks. To temporarily expand the money supply, the central bank decreases repo rates (so that banks can swap their holdings of government securities for cash).

To contract the money supply, it increases the repo rates. The current repo rate is 4.75%.

(iv) OMO and MSS – OMOs (Open Market Operations) are outright transactions in government securities. When the RBI buys G-Secs, it is injecting money into the system, hence, increasing liquidity, which softens (reduces) interest rates. When the RBI sells G-Secs, it sucks out excess money from the system i.e. reduces liquidity in the system which hardens interest rates. MSS (Market Stabilisation Scheme) is the issuance of treasury bills and dated securities by way of auction by the RBI. This affects interest rates in the same manner as OMOs.

Having collected updates on where the above parameters stand, one can have a better understanding of why interest rates are at their current levels, as well as which direction they are expected to move in. If most of them indicate that a rise in interest rates is expected, bond prices are likely to fall in the future. On the contrary, an expectation of a fall in interest rates means bond prices will rise. A word of caution here though – timing interest rate changes is difficult. This is because there is a low likelihood of being able to precisely predict the movement in the factors discussed above. So in order to minimize interest rate risk, one should ensure that the bond portfolio is diversified across various maturities.

Factors that Move the Interest Rates – Part 1:)

Interest rates

In earlier blog we have discussed about how Bonds are different than equities and why are they considered less risky instruments. πŸ™‚

Now coming on to this blog, we would talk about the 3 major factors (other than monetary policy) which moves the interest ratesΒ  and ultimately causes a price change in the Bonds.

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To determine where the interest rates are headed, it is important to have an understanding of the factors that move the interest rates.

This will in turn help gauge which direction bond prices are going to take, and one can make appropriate adjustments to a bond portfolio in order to maximize gains or minimize losses.

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1. Inflation:

Interest rates are directly related to inflation i.e. if inflation rises, so do interest rates.

This is because lenders demand higher interest rates to compensate for the decrease in purchasing power of the money they will be repaid in the future.

This causes bond prices to fall, since bond prices are inversely related to interest rates.

Inflation itself is affected by the economy’s currency and liquidity position.

In India, inflation is measured by WPI (Wholesale Price Index), for which is released every week.

For the week ended July 25, 2009, WPI was at (-) 1.58%. This may lead one to assume that inflation has gone down, but the reason for this low figure is a high base effect from 2008, when WPI showed doubledigit growth.

Current CPI (Consumer Price Inflation) figures are in the range of 8.6-11.5% for May-June 2009.

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2. Currency: A weaker rupee causes rising inflation, which in turn results in a rise in interest rates.

This is because one’s purchasing power reduces – if one was paying $60 or Rs.2400 (Rs.40=$1) to buy 1 barrel of crude oil, a weaker rupee (Rs.45=$1) means the same 1 barrel will now cost Rs.2700 i.e. Rs.300 more.

Similarly, a stronger rupee increases one’s purchasing power and brings down inflation, causing interest rates to fall.

The latter scenario is seen as a positive for the bond market, since it leads to rising bond prices.

Since 2008, the rupee has weakened significantly to Rs.47- 48 in July-August ’09.

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3. Liquidity: Interest rates are directly related to liquidity.

A crunch in liquidity means money is not readily available, since people are not willing to part with their cash.

A lower interest rate is then offered, which increases the price of already existing bonds in the market. The vice-versa also holds true.

One way of measuring the liquidity present in the system is to check the money supply measure – M3.

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There is another factor which is responsible for the movement in interest rates that is Monetray Policy which we would discuss in next blog

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To determine where the interest rates are headed, it is important to have an understanding of the factors that move the interest rates. This will in turn help gauge which direction bond prices are going to take, and one can make appropriate adjustments to a bond portfolio in order to maximize gains or minimize losses.

D-Street may inch towards consolidation: Analysts

Dalal Street

A wave of consolidation is likely to greet Dalal Street this week as concerns over rainfall shortage would pull down investor sentiments and keep the market under pressure, analysts said.

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“The market would remain range-bound and would look for a positive trigger amid the dampening effect on the possibility of a drought-like situation in the country,” Ashika Stock Brokers Research Head Paras Bothra said.

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Analysts also said there might be some positive bias in the movement of the market but absence of any major trigger might shift focus on the rain God.

“Delayed monsoon has made the market totally indecisive of the next move.

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The impact of drought would be felt in some time from now and that is holding back investor confidence to enter market,” SMC Capitals Equity head Jagannadham Thunguntla said.

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Besides, with the US economy showing signs of revival and Germany and France emerging out of the recession quicker than expected, analysts feel it could bring in a positive bias in the market.

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“As it is now a known fact that the major economies are pulling themselves out of the recession, I do not foresee any major collapse in the market in near term as it is all positive news around,” Bothra added.

The BSE Sensex gained 251 points, or 1.66 percent in the past week and closed at 15,411.63 points.

Market to track rains, IIP data and global cues

Share market India

The market is likely to track the Monsoon, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and global cues for direction this week.

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Market might fall to 14,000-14,500 levels if both the monsoon and global cues turn out to be negative this week.
Expectations are capital goods stocks to perform better in the short run.

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Investors are likely to pay heed to global cues and news related to the monsoon and IIP numbers.

If both domestic and global cues are negative, then we may see the Sensex taking support at 14,100.

A bad monsoon may pull down growth by a quarter. So, rain-related news has high significance.

Stocks in the capital goods counter and Reliance Industries may perform better in the short term. πŸ™‚

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Last week’s selling spree by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) was due to fears of a weak monsoon and profit booking.

β€œThe weak monsoon is a big worry right now. It can spook investor’s sentiment.Β  Apart from this, investors are likely to track global cues while the numbers on IIP will also be keenly watched. πŸ™‚
The selling spree by the FIIs in the past few sessions could be attributed to profit taking on account of good values as the market has risen more than 100 per cent since March 9, from 8,000 to 16,000 levels,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equities at SMC Capitals.

Thunuguntla said all sectors are showing signs of recovery and, hence, there are less chances of any major shock from the IIP numbers.Β Β  β€œHowever, poor rainfall and the subsequent fall in rural demand may put pressure on some sectors,” he said.

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Exit Bharti Airtel: SMC Global

an Interview with Rajesh Jain

Excerpts from an Interview with Rajesh Jain, Research Head of SMC Global.

Rajesh Jain of SMC Global giving a technical perspective about the market moves, portfolio and related factors.

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Q. I hold a few Bharti Airtel shares @ Rs 428. What should I do?

Jain: The stock is good. It had a fantastic run since 2004, but after the bull run, it underperformed. If you are a long-term investor, you should diversify and invest in infrastructure. πŸ™‚

Q. I hold 100 Tata Motors shares @ Rs 305. Should I hold?

Jain: I think you should book profits, because it will take some time for the company to pick up volumes and come out of its interest burden.
For that, there should be a revival in the overall market.
Till that time, I don’t think the company will be able to compete with players like Maruti and Mahindra & Mahindra.

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Q. I hold a few Adani Enterprises shares @ Rs 820. My investment horizon is 5 years. Should I hold?

Jain: You need to have a lot of patience. I would say keep some stop-losses and diversify your investment. πŸ™‚

Q. I have 500 Indiabulls Real Estate shares @ Rs 245. What should I do?

Jain: For this stock, Rs 250-260 is a good resistance zone. On the lower side, Rs 220-230 is a good support zone.
It is consolidating between these levels.
The day it closes above Rs 260, you can set a target of Rs 290.
On the lower side, if it breaches Rs 220, it will be bad.
So, keep a stop-loss of Rs 220 and wait for a target of Rs 290.

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Q. I hold 2000 Ispat shares. What should I do?

Jain: I am not so buoyant about Ispat. Though we have seen a bull cycle for four years and a correction for two years afterwards, this is one stock which has not moved up too much.
Big companies like SAIL have not shown too much of a strength either.
If the giants have not shown good performance, I don’t think companies like Ispat can show better results.
Performance-wise also, it has accumulated losses.
It needs a lot of time to come out of the accumulated losses.

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Q. What should I prefer? RIL or Tata Steel?

Jain: I will go for Tata Steel, because the commodity bull cycle is going on, and, as commodity guru Jim Rogers says, the next cycle is commodities.
In the short term, RIL may be able to do well and Tata Steel may not do that well.
Overall, I am bullish on commodities. I think Tata Steel would be a better bet. πŸ™‚

Q. I hold 500 Indian Hotels shares @ Rs 79. My investment horizon is 1-2 months. What should I do?

Jain: This stock is a defensive play.
When the market is in an aggressive mode, defensive stocks generally lag around.
I would say you will have to wait till the Rs 79 levels. It has a huge resistance at the Rs 80 levels. You need to have a lot of patience with this stock. πŸ™‚

Q. I have short listed Nestle, Hero Honda, L&T. Where should I put my money?

Jain: These are excellent companies.
I would suggest you to go for all the three as they will beat inflation and you will get good returns in the long term. πŸ™‚

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Q. Can you guide me through some auto ancillary stocks?

Jain: The segment has started showing revival. I think one can go for Sona Koya.

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Source : http://www.utvi.com/stock-market/stock-market-news/28377/exit-bharti-airtel–smc-global.html

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PE funds prefer minority stake in Indian firms, finds report

Private equity (PE) companies in India prefer to pick up minority stakes in companies rather than majority ones, a Tuesday report from New Delhi-based investment bank SMC Capitals Ltd said.

Private Equity

Between calendar 2005 and the first half of calendar 2009, the total value of PE deals was $41.91 billion (Rs2 trillion at Tuesday’s rates) but only $2.52 billion (Rs0.12 trillion), or 6%, of those were controlling stake transactions, the report said.

The largest controlling stake transactions were the $900 million investment, worth an 85% stake, by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Co. (KKR) in Flextronics Software Systems in 2006 and the $200 million investment worth an 80% stake by the Blackstone group in Intelenet Global Services Pvt. Ltd in 2007. The report said that the trend could likely be because Indian promoters are emotionally attached to their firms.

β€œIndia’s corporate world is driven by family-run business and not CEO-run business. The major decisions are taken by the promoters and not CEOs.” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, and the author of the report.

Vikram Utamsingh, head of private equity KPMG India Pvt. Ltd, said that in India β€œIf a promoter relinquishes stake in his business it is seen as a stigma that you cannot manage your own business and hence have to relinquish it”. β€œThere are many enterprises in India which are family-run, where the fourth or fifth generation is managing the company. The market is not ready yet to do enough controlling stake transactions,” said Mahesh Chhabria, partner 3i India Pvt. Ltd.

However, both said that there was no dearth of good managerial talent.

PE investments in June quarter touch USD 1.03 bn

PE investments in June quarter touch USD 1.03 bn

PE investments in June quarter touch USD 1.03 bn

Propelled by a recovery in the stock market, private equity investment into the country shot up to 1.03 billion dollars in the June quarter, an increase of 17 per cent sequentially.

The PE firms have invested USD 1.03 billion across 54 deals during the quarter ended June 2009, a 17 per cent surge over the previous quarter, which saw 42 deals worth USD 883.97 million, according to data compiled by SMC Capitals.

“With a recovery in the stock market, PE investors have also regained confidence on the Indian firms and have started putting in money,” SMC Capitals Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla said.

However, on a year-on-year basis, the number of PE deals have nearly halved in volume front and declined 69 per cent in value terms.

The June quarter of 2008 saw 84 PE deals worth USD 3.30 billion. The latest numbers take the total investments in the first six months of 2009 to over USD 1.92 billion (across 96 deals) as against the USD 7.95 billion invested (across 202 deals) during the corresponding period last year, the study indicated.

“Although the pace of investment has increased, PE funds are yet to gain last year’s momentum when the stock market was on a high growth path,” Thunuguntla said.

“Going ahead the PE investments are going to increase in India as the valuations are now at cheaper levels,” he added.

As per report by research firm Venture Intelligence, the single largest investment during Q2 of 2009 was IDFC PE and Oman Investment Fund’s Rs 600 crore commitment to QuippoTelecom.

This was followed by Norwest Venture Fund’s acquisition of 2.1 per cent stake in National Stock Exchange for Rs 250 crore.

In the June quarter, the IT &ITeS sector registered 12 deals worth USD 67 million, followed by healthcare and life sciences (with 6 deals worth USD 129 million) and BFSI (6 deals worth USD 116 million).

Some of the major PE investments made during Q2 of 2009 was Axious Investments’ USD 40 million (about Rs 200 crore) commitment to Quippo Telecom,

followed by Pangea Capital’s acquisition of stake in infrastructure firm Cobol Technologies for USD 30 million (about Rs 150 crore).

Other PE investments made during the quarter include Rs 183 crore investment commitment made by Standard Chartered Private Equity in Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and IDFC PE investing USD 45.30 million (about Rs 222 crore) in GMR Energy (Orissa Power Project SPV).