Posts Tagged ‘price movement’

RUBBER – STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “Commodity Corner Series”.

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Topic is RUBBER ………… “STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD”

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RUBBER - STRETCHING & MOVING ON THE WAY AHEAD

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We would touch upon aspects like the investment scenario of rubber in India and price movement of the rubber in Indian market.

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We would also read about the gap in the demand and supply of the rubber in the market.

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Rubber is springy & has the potential energy of getting stretched.

These properties are also seen in the price movement of the prices.

The year 2009, has given stretchable & phenomenal return on investing in rubber futures.

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INDIAN SCENARIO :

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The four-month period between October and January is the peak season of rubber output in the country.

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The total area of plantations in the country is 662,000 hectares of which 92-93 per cent is in Kerala.

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Tripura is the second-largest rubber planting state in India after Kerala.

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DEMAND & SUPPLY GAP –Walkthrough 2009:

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As we know that profit increases when the difference or the gap between the cost price & the selling price increases.

This immense gap was witnessed in rubber prices.

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Tight supply & tracking the rise in Asian markets like Tokyo and Singapore gave momentum to the prices to rise through out the year.

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The Indian industry consumed 356,400 tonnes of natural rubber (58 per cent of the total domestic consumption) during April-November.

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In April-November, natural rubber production in India dropped 6.5 per cent at 538,125 tonnes against an increase of 3.5 per cent in consumption at 614,600 tonnes.

So there was a gap of 76,475 tonnes in production and consumption.

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PRICE MOVEMENT “Focus on the journey, not the destination”:

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The spot prices at the benchmark Kochi had begun its journey at Rs.67.23/Kg & touched the high of Rs. 139.19 within a year.

Strong appreciation in prices in all major global markets which touched Rs 130.48 per kg, made the domestic market bullish.

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Similarly, the futures at MCX posted a gain of 78.94% as of 22nd December, 2009.

This spike was also supported by the increased gap between production & supply.

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Next Blog we would read about the impact of the shortage of rubber industry on major industries and the scenario of the rubber production in other countries.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

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Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”

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Seasonal Index……. “Time is Money”

In this Blog, we are going to read more about the old saying  “Time is Money” which is represented quite aptly by SEASONAL INDEX.

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Seasonal Index……. “Time is Money”

The old T saying “Time is Money” is rightly represented by Seasonal Index.

To maximize profit, investors should have good knowledge of markets where demand & supply of commodities have their own seasonality & the future prices of agri contracts with volatile market psychology, triggering stop-loss orders, hitting targets & speculator closing out of positions.

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What is a Seasonal Pattern?

Seasonal Indices are the virtual mirror image & identifiable seasonal movement on commodity data between two dates of the recent past, influenced by general price trend, sentiment, exchange rates etc.


It provides a better way of understanding the repetitive and predictable movement, but one should not be swayed by preconceived ideas about them, as they do not determine the actual signals, but the time of execution instead.

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Reasons for studying seasonal variation :

The reasons for studying seasonal variation are:

· To learn how seasonal forces can affect the commodity market.

· Better understanding of the price movement within a time series.

· To learn how seasonal’s can be used to identify the trade timing of a market.

· Prediction of the future trends & magnitude of price changes.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog, we would touch upon the points related to

the analysis of the seasonal pattern of the commodity prices,

how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity,

and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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POTATOES………GOOD SOURCE OF VITAMIN M (MONEY) Part Two

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog on Commodity Check where we touched upon the aspects like production and price movement of Potato.

Potato Position in Indian Snacks Market

Potato Position in Indian Snacks Market

Now we would read into the consumption pattern and position of Potato in Indian Snacks Market and many more related aspects in this regard.

Indian Snacks Market

Potato consumption is expanding strongly in developing countries, where potato is an increasingly important source of food, employment and income.

The Indian snacks market is worth around US$ 3 billion, with the organized segment taking half the market share, and has an annual growth rate of 15-20 per cent.

The unorganized snacks market is worth US$ 1.56 billion, with a growth rate of 7-8 per cent per year.

There exists consumer as well as bulk markets for potato wafers and chips even in far flung rural areas owing primarily to the following reasons:-

·Rapid urbanization and improving standards of living

·Easy availability

·Convenient packaging

·Affordable prices

·Nutritious values

Income growth in India has led to an increase in consumption of Western-type goods, such as French fries, which continue to be this country’s most important potato export product.

Consumers are willing to pay a premium for both value-added private and branded products, creating immense opportunities for manufacturers and retailers.

Though there exists some international as well as national brands but majority of the market base is under the control of local manufacturers.

PepsiCo India has partnered with more than 10,000 farmers working in over 10,000 acres across Punjab, U.P., Karnataka, Jharkand, West Bengal, Kashmir and Maharashtra for the supply of potatoes.

Potato sourced under contract farming accounts for roughly 55% to 58% of the US giant’s annual snack making requirement.

The company is trying to procure potato through contract farming from Bihar and Jharkhand and process upto 30,000 ton of potato at its Sankrail factory in West Bengal by 2010.

Strengthening Stimulus

Stimulus spending and festivals strengthening demand may add to on-going demand, the prices can be driven by supply-side bottlenecks.

India’s industrial output grew at its fastest pace in 22 months in August, 2009.

Inflation is rising; production is rising fast, so logically the data does suggest that it makes sense to move.

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