Posts Tagged ‘Pakistan’

Soybean oil….. “Prices sail along with the winds over harbor”

Soya bean oil is the second leading vegetable oil traded in the international markets after palm. Palm and Soya bean oils together constitute around 68% global edible oil trade volume, & Soya bean oil alone constitutes of 22.85% of the whole.

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Soybean Oil World Scenario –A SNAP SHOT

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•World Production: U.S. (38%) is the biggest producer of soybeans followed by Brazil (13-18%) and Argentina (27-37%).

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•World Imports: China, Japan, Mexico, Taiwan and South East Asia are major importers of soybeans while India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South & Central American countries (Peru, Venezuela, Bolivia, Dominican Republic) and Africa (Egypt, Morocco) are major buyers of soya oil in world market.

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•World Exports: U.S. is the largest exporter of soybeans while Argentina is the biggest exporter of soy oil followed by Brazil.

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Hot talks………….. China, the world’s biggest user of cooking oils, and Argentina remain in talks about China’s embargo on imports of soybean oil from the South American nation.

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China imports all its soybean oil almost from Argentina and Brazil. India imports nearly 1 million tonnes of soya oil yearly from Argentina, Brazil and US. India imported 192649 tons of Crude Soya oil during June 2010. According to USDA, the country is estimated to import 1.19 million tonnes of soy oil for 2010-11, while China is estimated to import 2.15 million tonnes during the same period.

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China has frozen all Argentine soybean oil imports in retaliation for Buenos Aires decision to restrict imports of Chinese products. The Chinese blocking of Argentine soybean oil threatens a key hard currency earner for the South American nation, estimated at 2 billion US dollars for the current year.

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Domestic scenario: India is the sixth largest producer of soya oil with account of 4% of world production. In India, Madhya Pradesh produces estimated 53% of the country’s soybean followed by Maharashtra (34%) and Rajasthan (8%). It is sown during June-Jul period and harvested by October in India. The domestic production soyabeen is around 1.4 million ton in 2009-10. Almost 70 to 80% of total oilseed production is crushed for oil while the balance quantity goes for food, feed and seed use in the country.

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So total soya oil production is around 0.7-0-8 million ton in 2009-10, While annual consumption is around 2.0-2.2 million ton with a market value of `9000 crore.

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The above chart shows that during January-June 2010, imports of soya oil totalled almost 7.36 lt against 5.99 lt a year ago. According to the Solvent Extractors Association, the increased imports have resulted in inventories building up at the ports.

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Imports getting surge in December 2009 primarily in view of the kharif oilseeds crop hit by the erratic weather and the rupee’s rise against the dollar.

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Kharif production has been estimated at 161 lt against 178 lt last year. Rabi output, however, is seen marginally up at 101.31 lt against 99.11 lt a year ago.

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Spot markets of Indore and Mumbai serve as the ‘reference’ market for Soya oil prices.

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The prices in Indore reflects the domestically crushed soybean oil (refined and solvent extracted) while Mumbai price indicates the imported soy oil price.

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In exchanges….. Futures trading in soya oil essentially serve as the right tool for hedging against market-linked risk by all those in the value chain of the commodity- the soyabean producing farmers, processors, brokers, speculators, soyabean and meal traders, traders of other oilseeds and oils, etc.

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CBOT is the biggest exchange for soybean oil. In India, NCDEX and NBOT are the major exchanges for these commodities. Its contracts are traded with high liquidity. The domestic future prices of soya oil are largely influenced by the international edible price movements (especially Malaysian palm oil and soybean oil at CBOT), soybean availability in domestic markets, demand for meal and other associated supply-demand factors of soybean and its derivatives.

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Current scenario: Refined soyaoil futures is trading up with August and September contracts moving up by 0.45% and 0.54% respectively. August soyoil futures traded at `484.70 while September futures were at `487.50 per 10kg. Crude Soya oil import price is US$ 880 per ton at Mumbai port whereas Crude Palm oil import price is US$ 805 which indicates the difference of less than 10 percent between the two. There is zero import duty on crude soybean oil in India while it is 7.5% for refined oil.

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Sweetness Of Sugar – Part 1 :)

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “Commodity Corner Series” 🙂

Sweetness of Sugar

Sweetness of Sugar

We would touch upon aspects like seasonality,cyclic nature and analysis of price trend of Sugar.

The Commodity

Sugar is the most plentiful economic sweetener and India’s second largest agro-processing industry.

There are more than 600 installed sugar mills in the country.

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The Seasonality & Cyclic Nature

The crushing season in the country generally starts from October and reaches its peak in January before March end or April of the next year.

It has been seen that during this period, supply arrives in the market and resultantly prices starts falling.

The cyclic pattern of the sugar industry lasts for 3-5 years.

Currently, the domestic sugar market is entering into a severe shortage phase due to sharp decline in production.

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Analysis Of Price Trend

Tracking short term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in and over the last years, one can analyse and assess its prices.

Since 2006, Sugar has been widely talked displaying a continuous bullish rally both in domestic & international market.

In domestic markets, Sugar prices remained bearish in the most part of the year 2007.

Prices surged by almost 30% in the first half of 2008 & regained its sweetness with supportive factors like lower production estimates and rise in export demand.

From July 2008 sugar prices have been maintaining its bullish trend.

In January, 2009 sugar prices reached record high levels.

With an eye on the rising prices, the Central Government announced measures with aim to control sugar prices.

In the month of May, 2009 world sugar prices have surged to a near-three year high, on the back of speculative buying by
funds betting on supply shortfalls in India and Pakistan.

Since October (the beginning of the 2008-09 sugar season), prices in spot and futures market have witnessed a bull run due to lower production estimates for the season.

Market has already breached the long term bearish trend line and presently trading in an interim bullish trend channel.

Speculators, and especially large traders, have really embraced the long side of the Sugar market.

The commodity has one of the best fundamental pictures right now and it is getting a good deal of solid buying.
The sugar market is overbought but it seems that it still has room to move higher in the longterm bull market than imagined.

It has been one of the better performers of the commodities market.

The price of Sugar has more than tripled in about 3 years.

Though, Sugar seems set to lose some of its sweetness for consumers in the time to come.

Sugar prices recently touched a 28-year high of 25.39 cents per pound on September 30, 2009.

This is likely to climb up going forward, because imports by countries such as China, Russia, Mexico and India are set to rise. These countries are consuming more, but producing less of the commodity.

Sugar futures tended to do well in these years.
An investor could have increased his return variability in these years without sacrificing any of his return.

Stay Tuned for more on Sugar Market in commodity corner 😉

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India had no role in shifting 2011 WC matches from Pak: ICC

ICC Chief Haroon Lorgat stressed on the fact that India had no role in shifting 2011 WC matches from Pak

ICC Chief Haroon Lorgat stressed on the fact that India had no role in shifting 2011 WC matches from Pak

ICC on Thursday dismissed Pakistan’s claims that India was behind the shifting of their 2011 World Cup matches and said the decision could have been avoided if the security apprehensions in the strife-torn country were responsibly addressed during the ICC Executive Board meeting.

“India had nothing to do with the decision. The decision was taken after consulting all the member nations. There are all together 16 member nation’s in ICC and India is just one of them,” ICC Chief Executive Officer Haroon Lorgat , who belongs to Pakistan himself, said.

Had Pakistan done half as they are doing right now before the ICC meeting, the decision could have been avoided.

We know many countries won’t tour Pakistan. Pakistan is now trying to defend their own position,” he told reporters.

On the possibility of shifting Pakistan’s share of World Cup matches to neutral venues like Abu Dhabi and Dubai, Lorgat said the ICC had not received any such proposal from the PCB.

“We have received no such proposal on neutral venue,” he said.

But Lorgat said in the coming days more security checks would be carried out in the venues of India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

“It’s a normal part of our process. We will still review the security in the other three host countries,” he said.

The ICC CEO also denied Indian Premier League (IPL) Commissioner Lalit Modi’s claims that Champions League Twenty20 and other domestic tournaments would be a part of ICC’s Future Tour Programmes.

Asked about ICC’s plans on organising the much talked about Day and Night Tests, Lorgat said, “It’s still early dates for Day and Night Tests, but we encourage the concept. We are conducting thorogh research on the concept at the moment.”

The ICC CEO announced that as per the new contract signed between the two parties, LG would remain ICC Global Partner for all ICC events till 2015.

Source: PTI