Posts Tagged ‘national bourse’

Cracking “Da – Futures – Code” Final Part

Continuing the final part 🙂

  • Small Speculator : Non- reportables  are small users of futures markets are more likely to be speculators than hedgers. In other words, they’re everybody else who participates in the futures markets — the proverbial “little guy.”

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The commercials do switch sides from time to time, which offer a tremendous opportunity for small traders. The commercials are not always right in terms of making profit from their long or short positions, but they should always be watched for their behavior.

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ANALYSIS “Da – Futures – Code”

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An easy and important way for an individual to examine this report is to watch out for the actual positions of the categories of traders– specifically the net position changes from the prior report.

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For example, by examining the open interest records of commercial traders in crude as compared to prior week, implies that money  managers cut net crude oil long positions on  the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week to 172,121 in the week through June 22 from 177,653 in the period to June 18. Long positions have declined by 5532 since last week and short positions have increased by 6701.

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This seems to indicate that there is some decline in bullish sentiment. This is a signal that, investors buying sentiments is cooling off and one needs to become more cautious about their risk exposure with tighter stops or protective options.

Analyzing the data from COT report, it is seen that soybean futures market is caught between the bulls & pressure. There is an increase of net long position by 9462 and shorts have decreased by 5279 from the period of June 18-22, resulting to recovery of net positions placed on downside.

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However, looking at the broader picture, the area of net positions still remains in the negative area which implies that speculators are with mixed sentiments over this counter & some are committed to the long side of the soybean futures in the near term. The fundamental factor also supports that La Nina “leads to a reduction in the crop size” may hurt soybean crops in the U.S., between early August and February, likely curbing yields..

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Therefore, keeping track of what speculators are doing with the weekly Commitment of Traders Report and by examining the levels of bullishness trend overseas in near term, and accordingly manage the portfolio and follow the changes on a weekly basis.

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Commitment of Trader’s Report……. Cracking “Da – Futures – Code” Part 1 :)

Years passing by and with the increased vagaries of world economies whether it be Greece, Italy, Hungry in Euro zone or high jobless claims, lower housing starts in U.s, Currencies, other macro factors like monsoon , a typical speculative fever is getting over the commodities futures market these days and has become a ubiquitous headline.

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So, it is very important for an investor to know the market sentiment whether it is bullish, bearish or plain neutral. Understanding the same one can handle its position tactfully and also profit from it by simply looking at the bigger picture and not get drifted away. So, now the question is ” How do you gauge the market sentiment?”

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THE COMMON MAN’S LAW

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Before finding the answer to this question, let’s understand  the common thought that when prices go up, investors want to buy more contacts and producer want to sell more of what they are trading and vice versa.

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The traditional commercial consumer/ producer cares about the prices. A producer has a cost involved in production and if the price drops below that production cost, they are going to lose money. So they hedge around that production cost. An enterprise on the other hand obviously needs the commodity for their business; if prices move higher, they will increase their hedging to protect themselves. This is an important law of world we live in.

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TRACKING CHANGES

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Many commodities groups like oilseeds complex, base metals, bullions on the national bourse, etc. track the price movements on the international exchanges. The data provided by the exchange on daily basis daily includes lots of information as amount of future contracts outstanding, volumes traded, their strike price and date of maturity. This is useful as far as it goes, but the data sheet has its own limitations. As we all know that all futures contracts have two sides- a long and short. Now, this is where the The Commitment of  Traders (COT) report released weekly by the commodity futures trading commission (CFTC) in the US is useful because it tell us much about whether speculators are long or short..

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The C.O.T report is released weekly-every friday afternoon. The report has three categories of market-user: commercials, non commercials and non reportable.

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  • Commercial Hedgers: Traditionally, as the commercials”the big guys” (like farmers, miners, international businesses and processors) are seen as entities using the market for hedging business risks. They are generally believed to have the best fundamental supply and demand information on their markets, and thus position their trades accordingly. The high large-speculative position denotes a real commitment to the trend.

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  • Non- Commercials: The non-commercials are assumed to represent speculative interest. An example of a large speculative account might be a large commodity pool (a fund) that trades futures for speculative profit.

Stay Tuned for the final part 🙂

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Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Final Part

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 2

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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Seasonal Index - “Time is Money” Final Part

In this Blog, we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Annual Average Method

The annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern as well as predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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This seasonal price index is derived by calculating the annual average price, and then by expressing the price for each month during the year as a percent of the annual average.

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Here, the data which is used to derive the seasonal price patterns are the monthly prices taken between the year April’2004 & November’2009.

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The monthly indexes over the years are averaged to derive a price index that represents those years.

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An example of the technique is presented in Table 1.

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The seasonal price index table suggests that the index increases from the month of June, the time the buyers enter the market with full potential & reaches the highest till the end of the year.

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In The Year 2009

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The prices movement of this year almost followed the seasonal pattern, except few months.

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The supply constraints of lower output, as farmers opted for cotton, worked as a high base effect for the futures with a flat production figure of 8.5 lakh tonnes in 2008-09.

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The recovery in prices was noticed owing to the unforeseen failure of monsoons & comfortable stocks of 25-30 lakh bags from last year for which guar prices traded higher all through-out the year.

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This commodity created a history as it made a life time high, since the date of launch at national bourse, on reports that the output is estimated at 30-35 lakh quintals, down 62% due to factors like scanty rains in the major growing areas.

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Stronger Rupee along-with volatile Crude oil prices brought some corrections in export earnings from Guargum markets in Europe/US.

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However, upcoming demand for by-products such as churi & korma from international markets kept the millers interested in processing guar.

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In a nutshell, if investors want to spin their money safely & stabilize their net returns, using seasonal Index can prove to be a fair advantage.

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