Posts Tagged ‘money market’

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

Hello Friends,

Just an extension of our previous blog ”RBI And Its Policies – Part 1β€³.

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy

In this Blog we would touch upon the aspects as that of Monetary projection from RBI, assessment of economy scenario at present and relevance of RBI policy on economy.

Monetary projection:

For policy purposes, money supply (M3) growth for 2009-10 is placed at 17.0 per cent, down from 18.0 per cent projected in the Annual Policy Statement.

Consistent with this, aggregate deposits of scheduled commercial banks are projected to grow by 18.0 per cent.

The growth in adjusted nonfood credit, including investment in bonds/debentures/shares of public sector undertakings and private corporate sector and Commercial Papers (CPs), has been revised downwards at 18.0 per cent as in the Annual Policy Statement.

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Economy:

Since the last review in July 2009, there has been a discernable improvement in the global economy.

The recovery is underpinned by output expansion in emerging market economies, particularly in Asia.

World output has improved in the second quarter, manufacturing activity has picked up, trade is recovering, financial market conditions are improving, and risk appetite is returning.

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A sharp recovery in equity markets has enabled banks to raise capital to repair their balance sheets.

If we talk about the home country then there are definitive indications of the economy attaining the ‘escape velocity‘ and reverting to the growth track.

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The performance of the industrial sector has improved markedly in recent months.

Domestic and external financing conditions are on the upturn.

Capital inflows have revived.

Moreover activity in the primary capital market has picked up and funding from non-bank domestic sources has eased.

Liquidity conditions have remained easy and interest rates have softened in the money and credit markets.

Growth projection for GDP for 2009-10 on current assessment is placed at 6.0% with an upward bias, the same as the previous policy review.

But some darker parts also persist.

There are clear signs of rising inflation stemming largely from the supply side, particularly from food prices.

Private consumption demand is yet to pick up.

Agricultural production is expected to decline.

Services sector growth remains below trend.

Bank credit growth continues to be sluggish.

The central bank has warned of possible asset price bubbles, raised banks’ provisioning requirements for commercial real estate loans and lifted inflation forecast.

WPI inflation for end-March 2010 is projected at 6.5 per cent with an upward bias.

This is once again higher than the projection of 5.0 per cent made in the Annual Policy Statement in July 2009.

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Stay Tuned for more on the topic.

We would look into Monetary Policy stance, more facts about economic indicators and Analysis from the Analyst from monetary point of view.

Note : For More Finance Gyan, Latest Industry, Stock Market, Economy News and Updates, please click here

Weekly Equity Update 21st-28th August :)

Weekly Update

After closing almost flat in penultimate week, in the week gone by markets closed in green terrain following the global markets which rallied to 10-month highs buoyed by renewed hopes that the global economic recovery is gathering pace and is pulling out of its deepest recession since the 1930s.

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Closer home, revival of monsoon rains, fresh buying by FIIs and firm European market boosted sentiment.

Moreover the statement made by FM that government expects GDP growth to accelerate to over 8% in 2010-11, with the economy showing signs of recovery, acted as a booster to markets.

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However it is expected that higher food prices will lead to WPI inflation accelerating to 6% in the fiscal year to March 2010.

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On the world economic front, the US economy shrank at an annual pace of 1% between April and June 2009, unchanged from an initial estimate released last month.

From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

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Japan‘s exports tumbled and stood at 35.7% for a tenth straight month in July as demand from all of the nation’s major markets deteriorated.

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

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Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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Once again commodities have shown the buoyancy that they can hold the support.

One or two day’s correction in the prices couldn’t break the trend of commodities. However upside is limited.

Resembling last week, current week as well is jam-packed of event risk as GDP data of many countries will release which will make commodities volatile throughout the week accordingly.

Precious metals may trade in a range with upward bias.

Back at home, to see more upside it has to trade above the level of 15000 in MCX.

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In agro commodities, buying may return in spices as recent fall in the prices has made Indian parity more competitive in international market.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of all markets is up though Shanghai has topped out and moving down which is a cause of concern.

It seems that currently US markets are determining the overall trend and our markets might be linked up with US markets now as we have broken above 4730 Nifty.

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If US markets don’t react, then we should be seeing higher levels ahead.

Nifty has support between 4600-4500 and Sensex between 15500-15000.

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EQUITY TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES


From the United Kingdom, its economy contracted 0.7% in the second quarter as the recession prompted companies to cut investment and inventories while consumers scaled back spending.

Weekly Equity Update 14th-21st August :)

EQUITY MARKET UPDATE1


The week gone by started on a weak note and domestic market nosedived deep into red terrain on huge selling pressure over the ground as unsatisfactory US consumer sentiment report weakened concerns about the recovery in global economy.

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In addition, weak Asian markets along with negative European markets also took huge beating on the bourses.

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Furthermore a poor monsoon rattled the markets, raising fears it could hurt economic prospects of corporates. However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week.

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In this year poor rains have raised worries about growth in India’s domestic-demand driven economy.

But a ray of hope was shown by FM saying that the government will take all the required steps to control drought.

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India has attracted 8% higher FDI to $2.58 billion in June 2009, from $2.39 billion in June 2008.

FII inflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 35,773.40 crore. Inflation for the week ended 8th August stood at -1.53%with the previous week’s annual decline of -1.74%.

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MARKET OUTLOOK

Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up.

Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Sensex has support between 15000-14700 levels and Nifty between 4450-4350 levels. πŸ™‚

However it is expected that market may remain volatile next week!!

Further more Global markets will also play a pivotal role in setting the direction. Inadequate monsoon rains may continue to weigh on investor sentiment. 😦

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TABLES :

1. Indian and Sectoral Indices :

weekly indices update

2. BSE Movers and Shakers & IA Equity Figures :

Weekly BSE Gainers- Losers updateπŸ™‚

3. NSE Movers and Shakers :

NSE Weekly Movers and Shakers

4. MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS :

MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

5. GLOBAL INDICES :

Weekly GLOBAL INDICES

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NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

After falling for three weeks in a row, inflation rate rose to -1.53 per cent for the week ended August 8, primarily due to dearer primary articles, especially food items.

The inflation rate for the previous week ended August 1 was -1.74 per cent and stood at 12.82 per cent during the corresponding period in 2008.

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Oil & Gas

Β·Reliance Industries may sell part of its stakes in some of the overseas oil and gas blocks to lower its exploration risk.

RIL, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Reliance Exploration and Production DMZ, holds interests in 15 overseas exploration blocks and is considering farming-out a part of its stake.

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Realty/ Infrastructure

DLF, the country’s largest realty firm, bagged a 350-acre plot for Rs 1,750 crore in Haryana for developing a recreation and leisure project, making it one of the costliest land deals in recent times.

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Information Technologies

Β·Geometric Ltd has announced the release of version 2.0 of its visualisation product, 3DPaintBrush.

This is an innovative visualisation and rendering tool that helps create near photo-realistic images, animations, and videos from 2D models in real-time.

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Trend of world markets is still up. US and Europe were holding strong whereas a correction had come in Asia, but overall they are all up. Shanghai looks to have topped out but till we are holding above 4450-4350 zone in Nifty, there is no need to worry.

Companies Go Slow on Share Buy-Backs.

Companies go slow on share buy-backs

Companies go slow on share buy-backs

In a tight money market, companies that have moved to buy back their shares are going slow on these efforts either because they do not have the money or are saving it for a better use, according to analysts and executives at some of the firms.

Currently, 22 companies have ongoing offers to buy back their own shares and, according to SMC Capitals Ltd, the merchant banking arm of New Delhi-based financial services house SMC Global Securities Ltd, they have spent less than 25% of the aggregate Rs 4,559.47 crore they would have to spend if they bought back all the shares they set out to at the maximum buy-back price.

To be sure, buy-back offers are typically open for several months and many of the 22 companies still have time to repurchase their shares.

Companies buy back shares in an effort to boost investor sentiment and prop up the share price, and increase the return on equity (money for the buy-back usually comes from reserves which is part of the shareholders’ funds or equity) and earnings per share (the shares bought back are destroyed, leaving fewer shares among which the earnings have to be shared).

No companies launched buy-back programmes in 2007, when the equity markets were on a roll. Several companies, however, announced such programmes as the markets started melting last year.

India’s benchmark equity index, Sensex, has lost nearly 50% of its value since January 2008, in the wake of the global credit crunch and an economic slowdown.

Delhi-based real estate firm DLF Ltd, which had announced one of the biggest buy-back plans last year at a total maximum cost of Rs1,100 crore, has thus far repurchased shares worth only Rs 51.3 crore, according to SMC. The offer closes on 9 July.

β€œThe money we have deployed in the buy-back is a reflection of the general market conditions and the liquidity crisis worldwide,” said Saurabh Chawla, executive director, finance, DLF.

Similarly, Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, owned by the Reliance Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (R-Adag), has bought back shares worth Rs806 crore in an offer capped at Rs2,000 crore, according to SMC data.

β€œAt a time when cash is king, many companies may not be as committed to their buy-backs as they would have been otherwise,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equity at SMC Capitals.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, head of equity at SMC Capitals

Usually, a firm specifies a maximum price for the buy-back and a maximum amount it will utilize for the buy-back.

But it doesn’t necessarily use this amount, and the buy-back happens at the prevailing market price.

β€œIf the maximum buy-back price is Rs600, but the current market price is only Rs 300, the firm will naturally buy back at Rs 300,” said Thunuguntla of SMC Capitals.

A buy-back gives investors the option of liquidating their position in a market that doesn’t have too many buyers.
More read on SMC Capitals : http://www.smccapitals.com/index.htm