Posts Tagged ‘metals’

Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

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Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

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China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

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India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

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Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

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Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

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Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

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Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

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Weekly Update 19th – 23rd April 2010

After nine consecutive weeks of gains, domestic markets ended in the negative terrain in the week gone by on the concerns over interest rate tightening by the RBI in its monetary policy scheduled on 20th April coupled with weak cues from the Asian markets.

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Moreover increase in unemployment numbers in US and China’s measures to cool its real estate market raised the uncertainty over the global economic growth. Now, Investors are much wary over the signs of overheating in China as its economy grew almost 12%, the biggest expansion since 2007, Industrial production grew 18.1% in March & retail sales increased 18%. Closer home IIP numbers for the month of February grew by 15.1% as against an annual gain of 16.7% in January, and 17.6% in December. While India’s inflation, as measured by the wholesale price index (WPI), surprisingly stayed almost unchanged in March at 9.90% as compared to 9.89% in February. However, it is expected that after the strong Industrial numbers, improving trade, healthy credit off take in the last fortnight of last financial year & high Inflation, RBI may take steps to suck liquidity by increasing Cash Reserve Ratio & give signals of higher interest rates to the banking system & industry as well by increasing both policy rates. The other concern emerging for the manufacturing growth is appreciating rupee.

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As a major proportion of manufactured goods are meant for exports, the rise in domestic currency will arrest exporters’ margin & may result in lower export.

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FII’s also were a bit cautious to actively participate in the market ahead of RBI’s policy review. In the current CY, FIIs have so far pumped in more than $5.42 billion, while in the month of April; they have been net buyers at $ 1.05 billion in the Indian markets. Expectation of the good corporate results is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. World stocks & commodity markets fell across the board after the revelation of SEC announcing civil fraud charges against Goldman Sach’s. This incident is likely to have its effect on the markets in the coming week.

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After 9 weeks of continuous rally in Indian stock markets, the rally ended last week after Nifty closed down 1.85% for the week. With world stock markets including the commodities taking a sharp correction on Friday, it seems that temporarily a top has been made in the market and one should be careful.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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On the commodity front, a range trading is expected in metals and energy.

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Since last few weeks, bullions and base metals have been trading in upper zone but are unable to break the resistance. Once they break their resistance then only, traders’ can see a new trading range. Back at home, sharp appreciation in rupee is also locking the movements. Data from European Union is important for the week apart from PPI and housing data of US. If improvement continues then only commodities will trade in upper trading range or vice a versa. Agro commodities could be more volatile ahead of expiry of April contract on NCDEX. In agro commodities, guar could see further rise on improved fundamentals as well as technical.

MCX Comdex & Benefits of Index :)

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

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INDEX - The Measuring Barometer

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Topic is  INDEX – The Measuring Barometer.

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Here, we would read that what is MCX Comdex and what are the advantages of Index.

MCX COMDEX captures diversified sectors encompassing futures contracts drawn on metals, energy and agricultural commodities that are traded on MCX.

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It is the significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time.

The MCX COMDEX futures give users the ability to efficiently hedge commodity and inflation exposure and lay off residual risk.

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Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.

MCX COMDEX, India’s first composite commodity futures index was launched on June 7, 2005.

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Advantage:

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Investors who own stocks of companies having exposure to primary commodities could use the COMDEX as a guide to hedge their risk in the commodity exchange, thereby bringing stability to the financial markets and strengthening linkages.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX:

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On the MCX-COMDEX, Agricultural sub-group carries 20% weighting.

It includes ref. soy oil, potato, chana, crude palm oil, kapaskhali & mentha oil.

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Metals also carry 40% weighting and comprise gold, silver, copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel & lead.

The energy sub-group consists of crude oil & natural gas and carries 40% weighting.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX

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Also Group Indices for MCX AGRI, MCX METAL & MCX ENERGY on commodity futures prices have been developed to represent different commodity segments as traded on the exchange.

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🙂

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

INDEX – The Measuring Barometer

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”.

.

INDEX - The Measuring Barometer

.

Topic is  INDEX – The Measuring Barometer.

.

Here, we would read that what is MCX Comdex and what are the advantages of Index.

MCX COMDEX captures diversified sectors encompassing futures contracts drawn on metals, energy and agricultural commodities that are traded on MCX.

It is the significant barometer for the performance of commodities market and would be an ideal investment tool in commodities market over a period of time.

The MCX COMDEX futures give users the ability to efficiently hedge commodity and inflation exposure and lay off residual risk.

.

Protection can be established regardless of overall market direction.

MCX COMDEX, India’s first composite commodity futures index was launched on June 7, 2005.

Advantage:

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Investors who own stocks of companies having exposure to primary commodities

could use the COMDEX as a guide to hedge their risk in the commodity exchange,

thereby bringing stability to the financial markets and strengthening linkages.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX:

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On the MCX-COMDEX, Agricultural sub-group carries 20% weighting.

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It includes ref. soy oil, potato, chana, crude palm oil, kapaskhali & mentha oil.

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Metals also carry 40% weighting and comprise gold, silver, copper, zinc, aluminium, nickel & lead.

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The energy sub-group consists of crude oil & natural gas and carries 40% weighting.

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Weight age (%) of Commodities in MCX COMDEX:

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Performance 2009:

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The chart above depicts that with the bull-run in commodities,

this index has outperformed throughout in the year 2009,

as compared to other years, where they had shown a sideways movement.

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Also Group Indices for MCX AGRI, MCX METAL & MCX ENERGY on commodity futures prices have been developed

to represent different commodity segments as traded on the exchange.

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Performance 2009

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

NEWS ROUND UP – ECONOMY & INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest News round up from Indian Economy and various industrial Sectors of the country.

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NEWS ROUND UP

Economy

·India’s industrial output rose at a faster-than-expected 9.1 percent in September from a year earlier. Manufacturing production rose 9.3 percent in September from a year earlier.

· The green shoots visible in the economy failed to enhance government revenue with indirect tax collections — comprising customs, excise and service tax — falling almost 22 per cent to Rs 1,26,903 crore in the April- October period this year.

It stood at Rs 1,61,954 crore in the corresponding seven months of 2008-09. The overall decline was led by a 32 per cent fall in customs revenue.

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Oil & Gas

·Reliance Industries Ltd. found oil in a block in the western state of Gujarat and is assessing the commercial viability of the discovery, which may help increase domestic fuel supplies.

Five wells were drilled in the 635 square kilometer area located in the Cambay basin, about 130 kilometers (80 miles) from Ahmedabad

·Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has decided to merge its energy trading joint venture with steel tycoon Lakshmi Mittal with their exploration tie-up.

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Metals

·Tata Steel has approved an exchange offer for an existing $875 million of securities into foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs), in a move to reduce costs and ease repayment.  The move gives an option to extend the repayment schedule by two years.

·Hindalco Industries plans to raise about Rs 2,900 crore in the next three to four weeks.
In July, it had announced plans to raise Rs 2,400 crore through Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP).

The issue could not take place due to the volatility in the stock markets.

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Capital Goods

· Larsen & Toubro Limited (L&T) has secured a contract worth Rs 1,635 crore to build a coal-fired plant for Madhya Pradesh Power Generation Co. Ltd.

The project will be executed on turnkey basis and L&T’s scope includes design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection and commissioning of balance of Plant Package (BoP) systems.

·L&T one of the failed suitors for scam-hit Satyam Computer, sold 2.32 per cent stake in the IT company (now Mahindra Satyam) for over Rs 306 crore, exactly a month after the lock-in perid on sale of its holding ended.

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Refineries

· MRPL is planning to invest Rs 6,000-8,000 crore starting from early 2011.

The company is looking at raising around Rs 5,000 crore to support its expansion plan, for setting up a polypropylene plant and installing a single buoy mooring (SBM) at the Mangalore port.

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FMCG

· Emami is diversifying into the cement business and will invest Rs 1,750 crore to set up production units in the next three years.

As part of the new plan, group company Emami Cement will set up a fully integrated cement plant in Chhattisgarh with an installed capacity to produce 3.1 million tonnes.

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Finance

· Power Finance Corporation has decided to lend Rs 50,000 crore, over two third of its total asset base, to fund various proposed power projects in the country.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please click here

Market May Continue to See Sideway Movements: Experts

Market To Move sideways : Expert

Market To Move sideways : Expert

After last week’s correction, witnessing a dip of 492 points, market experts said this week might continue to see sideway movements with slight downward bias.

They opined it was basically the momentum play which took the markets beyond 17,000 points and therefore downside movement was expected.

They maintained that currently the markets are over stretched and any rise in the short-term is unlikely.

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They ruled out that Reliance’s bonus shares or Infosys’s better than expected earnings will stoke the markets with positive sentiments this week.

In the previous week, CNX Nifty declined 138.2 points or 2.72 per cent on a weekly basis to close at 4,945.20 last Friday against last week’s close of 5,083.40.

Similarly, Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, slipped below 17,000 mark to close the week at 16,642.66, down 2.87 per cent.

Brokers pointed out that this week, Nifty may bottom out at 4,800 levels. It should not come below this as fundamentals of the country are intact.

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Last week, indices which ended in the green include consumer durables, fast moving consumer goods, health care, metals and power.

On the other hand, auto, bankex, capital goods, IT, oil & gas and realty index closed in the red.

Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals, said,

“Markets are facing resistance. It is difficult to expect sectors to outperform.  Though some stocks could do well.  But it seems, market is not in a mood to hear any good news.”

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This week, experts are betting big on telecom, infrastructure, consumer durables and banking space.

They held bearish stand on sectors like IT and auto.

Experts said that from this week onwards, corporate earning seasons will start which market will closely watch for.

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IMCX-India’s Fourth National Commodity Bourse, To Be Launched Soon:)

IMCX-to-be-launched

International Multi Commodity Exchange (IMCX)

Commodity trading in India has a long history & was started much before it started in many other countries.

Today, apart from numerous regional exchanges, India has three national commodity exchanges namely, Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and National Multi-Commodity Exchange (NMCE).

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THE RISING WAVES

These commodity exchanges have been performing extremely well in these years.

The turnover of commodity exchanges in India surged by 31% in the April-August period, led by a surge in trading of farm goods.

Total value of trading at the Commodity Exchanges during the fortnight from 16th August 2009 to 31st August 2009 was Rs. 3,04,651.88 crore.

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NEED OF THE HOUR

In India, futures’ trading in commodities is zooming.

India’s commodity exchanges have witnessed major action this year and are getting into investing and managing new commodity bourses.

Another commodity exchange may help using the opportunities better ; thereby improving trading volumes of specific contracts & be more efficient is the price discovery, which in turn will attract a wider constituency of participants from the entire commodity value chain i.e. government, producers, marketers, importers, exporters etc.

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THE FIRST STEP

A new commodity exchange, International Multi Commodity Exchange is going to launch very soon under the market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC).

IMCX is promoted by Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd (IBFSL) and India’s biggest state-run trading firm, MMTC Ltd, and part-owned by more institutions.

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The exchange is planning to start operations next month as the country’s fourth national commodity bourse & is ready to grab its share of a futures market that is growing 30% a year.

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BUILDING TECH – PLATFORM

The US-based exchange services provider Millennium Information Technology (MIT) has been awarded the contract for implementing the technology platform for the aforesaid exchange.

The US-headquartered MIT provides application solutions to financial and telecom industries.

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THE PILLARS OF FOUNDATION

IMCX will be the first commodity bourse in India to comply with the criteria of revised ownership criteria that makes the participation compulsory of public sector units or cooperatives.

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Currently, Indiabulls Financial Services Ltd. (IBFSL) holds 40% of the exchange, state-run MMTC Ltd. holds 26%.

Forward Markets Commission rejected the United Stock Exchange of India’s (USE’s) 10% stake buy in the bourse, on the grounds that the stock exchange is yet to be fully recognized.

So far, Indiabulls has diluted 24 per cent to HDFC Bank, Yes Bank and Indian Potash Ltd & IDFC + Krishak Bharati Cooperative Limited (KRIBHCO) have purchased a stake of 5% each in Indian Commodity Exchange, which was to be sold to the USE earlier.

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BUSINESS OPERATIONS

The exchange will start operations by launching 10-12 contracts in bullion, metals, energy and agricultural commodities with some uniqueness in contracts to attract more volume.

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·The exchange will launch gold mini and gold 1 kilogram contracts in the bullion segment. The gold contracts will have multiple delivery centers in five-six cities.

· In base metals, it is planning to offer copper, zinc and lead or nickel futures, and in the energy segment it will launch crude oil and natural gas contracts. Delivery-based contracts will be launched in the base metal segment, where contracts are mostly non-deliverable at other exchanges.

·The exchange has also tied up with several logistic providers for warehouse facilities, & in the next phase of expansion, the exchange may create its own warehouses

·Guar seed, rapeseed, refined soyoil, soybean and turmeric will be among the agricultural contracts.

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