Posts Tagged ‘Markets’

Weekly Update 31st May – 4th June

Markets posted gains in the week gone by as the investors felt that stocks are battered down harshly in the short run. Buying came in Asian stocks on speculation that China will rein its effort to cool its economy as European debt crisis threatens a global recovery. Concerns also rose that the banks in Spain may face further losses after IMF urged Spain to do more to overhaul its ailing banking sector. The regulator is pushing ailing banks to merge with stronger partners.

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US Treasury Secretary Geithner said that US, China along with India, Brazil and other emerging economies are experiencing stronger recovery as compared to earlier anticipation and are positioned well to face the challenges from the European Nations. The OECD revised India’s GDP growth forecast for 2010 to 8.2% from its earlier estimate of 7.3%. It also raised the growth forecast for 2011 to 8.5% from its earlier estimate of 7.6%. The OECD also said that underlying inflationary pressures are likely to persist given the strong outlook for demand. IMF pegged India’s GDP growth forecast at 8.75% in calendar 2010 and 8.5% in calendar 2011 on expectations of strengthening of domestic demand. Back at home, RBI in order to ensure optimum liquidity in the system so that the public and private sector credit demands are met, eased credit lines for the banks.

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Banks can now borrow additional 0.5% of their net demand and time liabilities from the Central Bank under the repurchase agreement till 2 July 2010. In addition, RBI said that as an adhoc measure, banks can seek a waiver for any shortfall in maintenance of the prescribed 25% Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) while availing the temporary facility. This step is taken by the RBI in view of the temporary liquidity pressure in the market because of the 3G auction and advance tax payments in the coming days. Talking about the much awaited Indian monsoon, the arrival is expected to be delayed by three days after tropical cyclone laila stalled its progress.

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Inspite of the big rally in last three days, overall trend of world stock markets is still down. Even the base metal commodities including Crude saw a rally but could not sustain at higher levels. Rupee which had crossed 47.70 levels intraday week came down to 46.30. Volatility is expected to remain high. Nifty faces resistance between 5100-5150 levels and Sensex between 17000-17200 levels.

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Persistent fear about the European region’s sovereign debt situation may keep buying intact in bullions. Commodity market is still volatile and jittery as crisis is still looming over EU nations. However, satisfactory first-quarter economic figures from the prominent Asian countries viz., China, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Malaysia will try to offset steep decline in base metals and energy complex.

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Furthermore, the week is full of event risk as well as many nations are coming with their first quarter GDP data, if any improvement occurs, it will stimulate buying in base metal and energy section. Dollar index, which is on track to give its best monthly performance since October, 2008 is likely to trade in a range in short run.

Weekly Update 5th-9th April

Domestic markets continued to build on the gains for the eighth consecutive week. The undertone remained buoyant as the growth signs are becoming clearer. A closer look on the gains gives impression that emerging economies would continue as a favorite investment destination. Hopes of good result season, continued buying by foreign institutional investors & recent upgrade of India’s credit rating are some of the factors that are keeping up the investment momentum in the market. On the global front, in US the recent payroll data has further boosted the confidence among the investors as it looks the deepest recession has ended.

Payrolls, a major indicator rose by 162,000 workers, the third gain in the past five months and the most since March 2007. Home prices in US unexpectedly rose in January for an eighth month. Home prices in 20 US cities rose 0.3% in January, indicating the housing market is stabilizing as the economy expands.

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According to some estimates US economy probably grew by 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2010 after a 5.6 percent pace of expansion in the fourth quarter of 2009. Apart from the tightening in monitory policy by RBI the other trigger for the markets would be monsoon forecast. A healthy monsoon would improve agriculture output & thereby rural incomes. It would also be crucial from the inflation point of view, as it is still a worry factor & may affect the growth momentum.

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Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change has predicted normal monsoon rains in India for the current year. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issues a monsoon forecast, usually in the second half of April after considering weather observations in different parts of the world and extrapolating statistical data.

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Overall trend of world stock markets is up and Commodities which were under pressure some time back also had a good rally last week. It seems now the mid cap and small cap are leading with mainline Nifty or Sensex lagging behind. The global liquidity is leading to various asset classes being chased by investors at every reaction. Nifty has support between 5150-5050 levels and Sensex between 17200-16800 levels.

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Firm U.S., Chinese and European manufacturing figures along with decline in SHFE and LME stockpiles may continue to keep the base metals on upbeat note. Lack of clear risk sentiment may keep gold directionless. Drop in U.S. jobless claims may lend further support to crude prices. Oil prices have risen about 23 percent from early February as the industrial sector leads a gradual recovery in the US economy. Possible new round of sanctions against Iran, maybe within weeks rather than months, could be underpinning the crude market.

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Spices pack may extend further gains while oilseeds may witness some short covering.

WEEKLY Update 8th – 12th March

Here we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and latest global business and industry updates.

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Markets continued to build on the gains that came in the post budget week. Investors seem to have overcome the worry factors like domestic fiscal deficit & concerns over Euro Zone.

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Even the sudden burst of buying by the foreign institutional investors reflects the confidence  in the domestic economy. Food price index rose 17.87% in the 12 months to 20 February 2010, faster than the annual rise of 17.58% in the previous week but is expected to come down on the likelihood of good harvest going ahead.

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On the external economy front, India’s imports posted a strong growth for the second month running in January, signaling a pickup in domestic demand and investment. Non-oil imports registered a growth of 28.8% in January, while oil imports were up 56% from the year ago period.

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Exports jumped for a third  straight month in January, rising 11.5 per cent from a year earlier as demand  picked up in the United States and other major overseas markets.

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The data cheered the markets & eased some concerns over the optimistic economic growth outlook that came after the third quarter GDP numbers showing growth of 6%. In the nine months to December Indian economy has expanded by 6.7% & in order to meet the CSO expected growth of 7.2% in the current fiscal, it should grow by 8.8% in the last quarter ending March 2010.

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Going forward markets are expected to trade in line with the global markets & will keep a close eye on the IIP numbers that are scheduled to be announced in the coming week. However markets may face liquidity pressure with approximately 22,000 crore going out from the banking system last week & another 12,000 crore expected to go out by the week ending 13th march as a result of hike in Cash reserve ratio by 75 bps by RBI.

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Another liquidity squeeze would be from the corporate in the system as the last tranche of Advance tax is approaching i.e. 15th March. Above all the expected rush of new & follow on public offering in the near term is expected to put a continuous pressure on the liquidity front.

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The week gone by saw one of the strongest rallies in stock markets across the world which goes to show that bulls are still strong and a lot of money lying in the sidelines enters the market at every fall. Trend of Nifty and Sensex is bullish and Nifty has support between 5030-4950 and Sensex between 16700- 16400 levels. The dollar index is finding a strong resistance between 80-81 levels and if it does not cross this strongly then the rally is expected to continue.

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Commodities rose on benefits of doubt as dollar index is witnessing see saw movements amid some improvement in economic releases. However, there is still some uneasiness, regarding the health of European countries, including Spain. In metals and energy, things look balanced right now. These commodities are expected to trade in a range.

Story of agro commodities is little different.

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Despite fragile outlook, most of commodities prices soared on support at lower level buying and domestic as well as overseas demand.

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Cautious trading is advisable here, especially in spices as they have already witnessed significant upside in last few trading sessions.

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Stay Tuned for More updates

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Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series”

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Seasonal Index……. “Time is Money”

In this Blog, we are going to read more about the old saying  “Time is Money” which is represented quite aptly by SEASONAL INDEX.

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Seasonal Index……. “Time is Money”

The old T saying “Time is Money” is rightly represented by Seasonal Index.

To maximize profit, investors should have good knowledge of markets where demand & supply of commodities have their own seasonality & the future prices of agri contracts with volatile market psychology, triggering stop-loss orders, hitting targets & speculator closing out of positions.

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What is a Seasonal Pattern?

Seasonal Indices are the virtual mirror image & identifiable seasonal movement on commodity data between two dates of the recent past, influenced by general price trend, sentiment, exchange rates etc.


It provides a better way of understanding the repetitive and predictable movement, but one should not be swayed by preconceived ideas about them, as they do not determine the actual signals, but the time of execution instead.

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Reasons for studying seasonal variation :

The reasons for studying seasonal variation are:

· To learn how seasonal forces can affect the commodity market.

· Better understanding of the price movement within a time series.

· To learn how seasonal’s can be used to identify the trade timing of a market.

· Prediction of the future trends & magnitude of price changes.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog, we would touch upon the points related to

the analysis of the seasonal pattern of the commodity prices,

how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity,

and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Points to Remember while Selling Stocks – Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Points to Remember while Selling Stocks Part 1”.

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Points to Remember while Selling Stocks

Points to Remember while Selling Stocks

In previous Blog we had touched upon few points related to selling stock tips.

In this blog lets get to know more of valuable points in this regard.:)

Major points when to sell your stocks ( starting from 4th..three already being discussed in Blog 1)

4. Stock is Over Valued:

During bull market, high quality stocks appreciate value.

But more importantly, with so much hype around the stock, they are often set up for a fall.

Therefore, investor may use the strategy of selling them first and buy at lower price.

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5. Need Some Cash-

Certain unexpected circumstances may affect the time when to sell stock.

It is not wrong to sell stock to solve your financial emergency, especially the underperforming one.

However, it is advisable to have some emergency cash funds.

After all, basic investing rules is to start investing if you have enough money.

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6. A Change in Monetary Policy-

The Central Bank, RBI changes monetary policy if it perceives that inflation is heating up.

By raising interest rates, it contracts the money supply and slows down the financial system.

It is generally seen that stocks normally react negatively against the action, and some time markets become more volatile.

If you are not happy with this type of risk then you should move a portion of your portfolio into stocks that will not be as affected with such changes.

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7. A Company Suddenly Cuts Dividends or Lower Income Estimates-

This event should be investigated carefully before making any judgment to sell.

For good reason, the board of directors might want to retain more of their earnings for internal growth, rather than paying them out in dividends.

Sell a company’s stock if the performance is down.

Investors must never sell the stock of a fine company if its price goes either ways significantly – up or down.

Falling earnings margins and slowing earnings must be treated as a warning signal.

Lastly, I would like to say that always do your homework (Research) well while selling a company’s stock; you can use either the top-down approach or the bottom-up approach.

Markets are often full of rumors. You cannot make money in the market by acting on market rumors.

Always listen to the stories, but remember you should do your own research–and do it thoroughly.

Make your buy or sell decision based on your analysis of the company, not on what others tell you to do.

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Know the Basics of Commodity Trading :) Part 2

commodity-trade

Hello Friends,yesterday we discussed about the importance and need for Commodity Trading.

Now its time to understand and know that how can we do commodity trading, what is the process for that and how commodity trading works

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Here we go with first question of the topic for the day 🙂

How do you do commodity Trading?

When you buy a Gold Futures contract, you undertake to do three things.

1. Buy the amount of gold specified in the contract.

2. Buy it at the price specified in the contract.

3. Buy it on the expiry of the contract.

This could be after one month, two months, three months and so on.

Of course, if you sell the Gold Futures contract before it expires, then you don’t have to worry about actually buying the gold.

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Let’s say you buy the Gold Future contract at say Rs 15000 per 10 gm.

Your hunch comes true and the gold prices rally to Rs 16000 per 10 gm.

You can sell the Gold Futures any time before expiry of the contract.

Gold and other commodity futures prices are quoted on the commodity exchanges in exactly the same way in which stock prices or stock futures prices are quoted on a daily basis in the stock markets.

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Now let us see How Commodity Trading works?

They work just like stock futures :).

When you buy a Futures, you don’t have to pay the entire amount, just a fixed percentage of the cost.

This is known as the margin.

Let’s say you are buying a Gold Futures contract.
The minimum contract size for a gold future is 100 gms.
100 gms of gold may be worth Rs 72,000.

The margin for gold set by MCX is 3.5%.
So you only end up paying Rs 2,520.

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The low margin means that you can buy futures representing a large amount of gold by paying only a fraction of the price.

So you bought the Gold Futures contract when it was Rs 72,000 per 100 gms.

The next day, the price of gold rose to Rs 73,000 per 100 gms.

Rs 1,000 (Rs 73,000 Rs 72,000) will be credited to your account.

The following day, the price dips to Rs 72,500.

Rs 500 will get debited from your account (Rs 73,000 – Rs 72,500).

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Things You need to know about Commodities Trading 🙂

Compared to stocks, trading in commodities is much cheaper, because margins are much lower than in stock futures.

Brokerage is low for commodity futures.
It ranges from 0.05% to 0.12%.

Because of this, commodity futures are a speculator’s paradise.

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If you are a hard-core trader who follows the technical charts and do not really care what you trade, and if you are nimble and savvy, then commodity futures could be another asset class that you would be interested in.

The advantages in this line is that there are no balance sheets, no complicated financial statements.

All you need to do is follow the supply and demand position of the commodities you trade in very closely.

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Visit the commodities trading exchanges – NCDEX,NMCE and MCX – to find out which commodities are offered for trading, their contract size and other criterias.

You will have to get hold of a commodities broker but that should not be a problem.

There are lots of brokers that offer commodity trading these days.

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But, it would be wise to avoid commodity trading if you are a rookie or beginner.

A much better move would be always to initially trade in stock futures before opting for commodity futures.

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Just like stock futures (Read How to trade in Futures to understand how futures work).

When you buy a Futures, you don’t have to pay the entire amount, just a fixed percentage of the cost. This is known as the margin.

Let’s say you are buying a Gold Futures contract. The minimum contract size for a gold future is 100 gms. 100 gms of gold may be worth Rs 72,000.

The margin for gold set by MCX is 3.5%. So you only end up paying Rs 2,520.

The low margin means that you can buy futures representing a large amount of gold by paying only a fraction of the price.

So you bought the Gold Futures contract when it was Rs 72,000 per 100 gms.

The next day, the price of gold rose to Rs 73,000 per 100 gms.

Rs 1,000 (Rs 73,000 Rs 72,000) will be credited to your account.

The following day, the price dips to Rs 72,500.

Rs 500 will get debited from your account (Rs 73,000 – Rs 72,500).

Know the Basics of Commodity Trading :) Part 1

commodity-trading-futures

Are you comfortable enough to answer these given questions with certain level of confidence and conviction?

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For example,

What do you think gold prices will go up further?

Are you sure that crude oil prices are going to fall?

Have you heard that the soya crop this year is bad and will result in soya prices going up?

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If you think that your answers and predictions have a good chance of coming true and are willing to bet some money on them, you could try your hand at playing the commodity futures market.

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You might have heard about stock future trading quite often.  Lets discuss about commodity futures, now..

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The commodity markets have changed a lot from the poky, little hole-in-the-wall trading offices in narrow streets next to crowded markets where traditional dhoti-clad merchants used to trade.

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Now India’s boast of 3 major national level commodity exchanges

which are National Commodity and Derivative Exchange(NCDEX),

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) and National Multi

Commodity Exchange of India(NMCE).

These brand commodities exchanges have been set up and these are fully computerised.

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More and more stock brokers are setting up commodity brokerages as well, and trading volumes in commodity futures is widely predicted to rival the volume of derivative transactions (futures and options) on the stock exchanges.

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What’s more, you can also trade online.

Well  first lets talk on the need and importance of commodities trading.

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Why commodities trading?

Well, let’s suppose you want to buy gold because you believe that the price of gold will rise.

You could then buy gold ingots, store them, wait for them to go up in price, and then sell them at a profit.

But, you have to be sure that the gold you buy is pure, you have to find a place to store it, you have to provide the security, transport it to vault and other such hassles.

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A far better way to invest in gold would be to buy gold futures from the commodities exchange.

Next Blog we would touch upon issues like how can we do commodity trading, what is the process and how it works

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Stay Tuned for more and more on this 🙂

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