WEEKLY COMMENTARY 1st – 05th March

Series of economic data amid Indian Union Budget resulted in erratic price movements in commodities throughout the week. Market participants indulged actively themselves in the market. Bullions cut some of their losses in the later part of the week on short covering.

Expiry of February contract of base metals also made them very volatile. Most of them surrendered their previous gain on poor outcome of economic data.

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Strong dollar together with the most recent signs that the U.S. economy is still struggling to recover, led bearishness in all base metals. On the date of expiry, lead closed down and the gap between lead and zinc  narrowed down to 90 paisa. Similar to base metals, even energy complex drifted lower on negative economic releases in the middle of strong dollar.

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A stronger dollar makes oil and other commodities less affordable for holders of other currencies. On MCX, it touched the 3722 and moved down towards the level of 3600 on profit booking. Rising number of rigs coupled with rising mercury in Midwest cooled down natural gas prices further. On Friday, commodities recovered marginally on improved US GDP.

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Bears were seen active in agro-commodities last week as most of the future contracts on NCDEX settled in red zone on weekly basis. Guar pack settled in red territory as weak domestic and export demand hammered maize prices on future bourses.

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In oil seeds section, soyabean also ended the week with negative impression as the Indian market moved in line with weak overseas market. Continuation of subdued demand for soy meal from South East Asian countries and ample stocks of edible oil kept prices under check during the week.

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Mustard seed futures traded range bound. Lack of demand and improvement in weather condition had a bearish impact on market in the week gone by.

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In spices pack except turmeric futures all other futures settled in red zone. Pepper and jeera futures maintained their downtrend during the week taking cues from the higher fresh arrivals to the physical market. However turmeric futures ended the week on positive note supported by good export demand. Maize also traded in negative zone due to fresh crop arrivals and higher output estimates. According to latest government estimates the total output of current rabi season will be at 5.64 million tonnes over 5.61 million tonnes last year.

Interest Rate Futures Section – Final Part :)

Interest Rate Futures Section Final Part

Hello Friends, we are here with the Final Part of our Interest Rate Futures educational section.
We would touch upon the benefits of the Interest Rate Futures and the future scenario related to it.

Here we go :

Key benefits of Interest Rate Futures:

Directional trading

As there is an inverse relationship between interest rate movement and underlying bond prices, so if one has strong view that the interest rates will rise in near future then he can take short position in IRF contracts and can be benefited from the falling futures bond prices.

Hedging portfolio

The holders of the GOI securities are exposed to risk of rising interest rates which in turn results in the reduction in the value of the portfolio.

So in order to protect against a fall in the value of the portfolio they can take short position in IRF.

Calendar spread trading

This spread is also known as an inter-delivery spread.

It is the simultaneous purchase of one delivery month of a given futures contract and the sale of another delivery month of the same underlying on the same exchange.

For example:

Buying a September 09 and simultaneously selling a December 09 contract.
A market participant can profit as the price difference between the two contracts widens.

The either case can also be possible.

Reduce the duration of portfolio:

Bonds with longer maturities are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and bond portfolio with longer duration will be more exposed to the vulnerability of the movement in interest rate.

So portfolio manager who is concerned about the rise in the short term interest rate risk would like to reduce the duration of the portfolio.

By entering into the IRF contract to NSE, the portfolio manager can reduce duration of the portfolio.

Arbitraging between cash and futures market:

Arbitrage is the price difference between the bond prices in underlying bond market and IRF contract without any view about the interest rate movement.

One can earn the risk-less profit from realizing arbitrage opportunity and entering into the IRF contract traded on NSE by initiating cash and carry trade.

Responses After launch:

After the launch of currency futures in August 2008, Interest-rate futures are the first major product to be introduced in India.

The interest rate futures began on August 31,2009 clocking trading volumes of Rs 276 crore in their first day of trade.

Market participants responded passionately to the product launch on the first day.

In around five hours of trading time available after inauguration, 1,475 trades were recorded resulting in 14,559 contracts being traded at a total value of Rs 267.31 crore.

In the beginning only two quarters has been introduced out of four, among which December 2009 was the most active with 13,789 contracts which has been traded actively.

There are nearly 638 members registered for this new product, out of which 21 are banks and there contribution to the total gross volume was 32.48 percent.

Future scenario:

BSE had received regulatory approval for interest rates futures and would launch in 8-10 weeks.

The Multi Commodity Exchange’s foreign exchange derivatives bourse has sought permission to launch trade in interest rate futures.

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INTEREST RATE FUTURES – Part 2

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog on interest rates futures where we touched upon the topic of interest rates future and what is it exactly.

Now we would understand that why is there need for interst rate futures and many more related aspects in this regard.

Here we go :

Why Interest rate futures?

Why Interest rate futures?

The risk associated with the interest rate is uncertain and it never has been constant in the past, infact it would not remain constant in future also.

The volatility of interest rates has increased manifold in the last couple of years and recorded 17.40% in 2008 as compared to 8.51% in 2007.

This high fluctuation in volatility increases risk and requires tools to manage those risks.

Interest rate futures are the product for managing such interest rate risk.

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Backbone of Interest Rate Future:

NSE, India’s largest stock exchange, began interest rate futures and offers the same reliable features as it provide to its other products with the following advantages:

•Standardization and flexibility

•Price transparency and liquidity

•Leverage effect due to a wider collateral management

•Advance trading software and technological edge

•Centralized clearing supported by guaranteed settlement

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Who can be a part of it?

The major market participants of interest rate futures are

•Banks and Primary Dealers

• Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies

• Corporate Houses and Financial Institutions,

•FIIs and NRIs

• Member Brokers and Retail Investors.

In Final part of this topic (which we would cover in our next blog), we would throw light on the benefits of the Interest Rate Futures and the future scenario related to Interest rate futures.

🙂

Stay Tuned 😉

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Did IPO Grading Fail to Catch the Fancy of Investors??

The grading system of initial public offers (IPO) is in need of an upgrade, say market participants.

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Two years after it was first introduced by market regulator SEBI, the system has failed to catch the fancy of investors as share price trends of newly listed companies have shown little or no correlation to the grading given by rating agencies.

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“IPOs with grading 4 have shown returns that are much lower than IPOs with grades 1 and 2.
So, this is raising the question whether it is time to look at amendments to the existing structure or maybe SEBI can think of completely scrapping the system,” said Jagannadham T, equity head of SMC Capitals.

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However, one can’t deny the importance of the IPO grading system not only is it beneficial for retail investors who don’t have the time or skills to go through an entire prospectus but it also acts as a deterrent for fly by night promoters who wish to access the primary market solely for their gains.

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Not only financials of a company is looked at but also people at the business head level are contacted to see what the company is up to.

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As per few experts, IPO grading doesn’t have anything to do with the price post listing. A lot of things apart from fundamentals drive the stock.

The reservation of comment on pricing is a sore point, but even more, is the grading of a SEBI barred company like Austral Coke at Grade 2 by CARE above Orbit Corporation at 1 by the same rating agency.

:O 😦

And this makes one wonder if a thorough due diligence is done by all rating agencies that’s ground enough for a review.

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BUSINESS CYCLE AND INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE 1

As we all know that different industries perform differently depending on what part of the business cycle the economy is in.

Though at present there are signs of stabilization, including a recovery of stock markets, a decline in interest rate spreads, improved business and consumer confidence but the situation still remains uncertain and significant risks remain to economic and financial stability.

Now the hundred million dollar question is that what an investor should do when it comes to investing in stock market.

However, there are so many theories available guiding an investor regarding investment in stock market.

Through this article some guidance are forwarded regarding how business cycles are related to Industry performance thereby making one understand how one can use the study to make out the maximum from the stock market.

The following relationships have generally been observed between industry performance and the stage of the economic cycle:

a) At the economic trough, industries that supply consumer durable goods tend to bottom as market participants anticipate an economic recovery.

b) As the economy recovers, businesses begin to expand and therefore industries that provide capital goods tend to do well.

c) During the peak of the cycle, industries that provide basic materials tend to do well as the overheating economy puts an upward pressure on the prices of raw materials.

d) Once the economy begins to decline (or enters a recession), industries that supply consumer staple products begin to do well as their sales are largely unaffected by economic downturns.

e) As the economy nears the end of its decline, financial services industries begin to do well as the rate of bankruptcies stabilize and interest rates reach their cycle lows.