Posts Tagged ‘low crop estimates’

Crop Forecasting – “Past – Present – Future Part 2″

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Crop Forecasting – “Past – Present – Future Part 1”.

Crop Forecasting - “Past - Present – Future Part 2

Crop Forecasting - “Past - Present – Future Part 2

Here we would get to know of that what are the procedures of crop estimation survey and on what basis ,final estimates arrived at !

PROCEDURE

In India, the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) releases estimates of area, production and yield in respect of principal crops of food grains, oilseeds, sugarcane, fibers and important commercial and horticulture crops.

DES estimates the crop production by multiplying the area estimates by corresponding yield estimates.

From the point of view of collection of area statistics, the States in the country are divided into three broad categories:

i. States and U.Ts. which have been cad-astrally surveyed and where area and land use statistics are built up as a part of the land records maintained by the revenue agencies (referred to as “Land Record States” or temporarily settled states).

ii. The states where area statistics are collected on the basis of sample surveys.

iii. In the hilly districts where no reporting agency had been functioning, the work of collection of Agricultural Statistics is entrusted with the village headmen of the reporting area.

The second most important component of production statistics is yield rates.

The yield estimates of major crops are obtained through analysis of Crop Cutting Experiments (CCE) conducted under scientifically designed General Crop Estimation Surveys (GCES).

The primary objective of GCES is to obtain fairly reliable estimates of average yield of principal food and non-food crops for each of state and UTs which are important from the point of view of crop production.

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BASIS OF FINAL FIGURES

Final estimates of production based on complete enumeration of area and yield through crop cutting experiments become available much after the crops are actually harvested.

However, the Government requires advance estimates of production for taking various policy decisions relating to pricing, marketing, export/import, distribution, etc.

The government releases four advance estimates of farm production across the year apart from making a final projection.

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First Adv. Estimates for Crop Production: Released

·The Government on 3rd November, 2009 released First Advance Estimates of production of major crops grown in the country.

The production figures of various crops are as follows in Million Tonnes (MT):

·Kharif Foodgrains – 96.63 MT

o Rice – 69.45 MT o Coarse Cereals – 22.76 MT o Maize – 12.61 MT o Jowar – 2.55 MT

o Bajra – 5.83 MT o Kharif Pulses – 4.42 MT o Tur – 2.47 MT o Urad – 0.88 MT

o Moong – 0.52 MT

·Kharif Oilseeds – 15.23 MT

o Soyabean – 8.93 MT o Groundnut – 4.53 MT

·Cotton – 23.66 million bales of 170 kg each.

·Jute & Mesta 10.24 million bales of 180 kg each

·Sugarcane – 249.48 MT

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The first advance estimates put the kharif foodgrains estimates for 2009-10 at 96.63 million tonnes (MT) as against 115.33 MT in the first advance estimate of 2008-09.

Estimated rice output is lowered by 13.8 million tonnes, total coarse cereals output by 4.6 million tonnes while that of pulses is down by 0.3 million tonnes.

The reason for lowering may be that the drought in about half the country has jeopardized the fate of most summer-sown crops.

The low crop estimates are expected to firm up prices & will further impact food prices for key farm commodities, fuelling food inflation higher,which are already witnessing new levels.