Posts Tagged ‘Kharif’

MAIZE……… “A-maize-ing”

The changing desires of eating taste have changed the periphery of the cereal. The change of label from “makka” on the road side to “masala corn” or “sweet corn” in the shopping malls across the country, has given an edge to this commodity.

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ACERAGE REPORT – INDIA

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Area, production and yield of maize in India had been increasing for the last five decades and India had reached near self sufficiency in production. “But this year there is a small twist in the story”.

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Maize is grown in both kharif and rabi seasons. According to data provided by industry players, kharif maize output is estimated at 12.5 million tonnes for 2009-10 as compared to 14 million tonnes in the previous year. The rabi season output is estimated at 4.68 million tonnes as against 5.60 million tonnes in the previous year. Overall, maize production in 2009-10 is likely to be 17.28 per cent lower, or 3.41 million tonnes less, at 16.32 million tonnes, from 19.73 million tonnes in 2008-09.

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Punjab: Maize acreage in Punjab is expected to increase by about 1.50 lakh hectares to 2.82 lakh hectare this season. In the last few years, maize is also grown in spring, particularly in the potato belt of the state.

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Haryana: Haryana farmers have increased the corn acreage to 40,000 hectares against the government target of 4000 hectares. This might not have an impact on domestic corn prices for the reason that Haryana is not a major corn producer and acreage in major corn producing states Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh has declined..

Tamil Nadu: Acreage of corn in Tamil Nadu has increased by around 71% till June 7, 2010 compared to last year.

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Andhra Pradesh: Despite of the normal rains in Andhra Pradesh, acreage under maize as on 16/06/10 has reduced significantly. Lucrative returns in other crops like sugarcane, sesamum have attracted farmers to shift corn area into those crops. Area covered under maize in Andhra Pradesh as on 16/06/10 is reported at 8945 hectares compared to the normal area covered till date 31403 hectares..

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On the whole, the total sowing acreage of maize as on 26th June 2010, reduced by 35% to 5.39 lakh hectares due to delayed monsoon in northern and central part of India..

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ACERAGE REPORT – WORLD.

Global maize production was likely to be a record 822 million tonne (MT) in the 2010-11 season, the International Grains Council (IGC) said in its latest report. “The world maize production forecast for 2010-11 is increased by 15 MT to a record 822 MT, up from 807 MT last season, due to improved prospects in US, Mexico and parts of Africa” the IGC report said.

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In its weekly crop ratings report, USDA said 73 percent of the corn crop was in good or excellent condition, down from 75 percent a week before.

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FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK

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·Chicago Board Of Trade (CBOT)

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U.S. corn futures market is caught between pressure from expectations for a big U.S.crop and support from uncertainty about weather and Chinese demand. Corn futures headed for the biggest monthly decline in three months as planting advances in the U.S., the world’s largest exporter, boosting expectations that the next harvest may exceed last year’s record. The USDA kept its estimate on the nation’s corn production unchanged at 13.37 billion bushels in the year beginning September, with 88.8 million acres planted, beating last harvest’s record of 13.11 billion bushels.

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·National Commodity Derivative Exchange (NCDEX)

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Maize NCDEX July future prices had seen consolidation in a range of 1010-1025. Recently, the counter making a technical break out, made a high of 1034.50. Despite of the higher acerage reports, the prices have maintained a continuous uptrend journey. Maize futures have given a profit return of about 9% in a span of six months dwelling between both bulls & bears. Most interestingly, the July contract has registered a profit of more than 11.69% within 8 weeks – 48 trading sessions – 336 hours of trade (approx.). Prices maintaining an upright stand & expecting the same with continuous buying from the consuming industries, the cereal is anticipated to make new highs. Maize NCDEX July future prices are in CONTANGO situation as
against June contract.

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Therefore to sum-up, there is a lot’s potential for corn futures supported by the fact of upcoming demand & rising consumption from every corner of the world. The day is not very far for the cereal to be the most “A-maize-thing” amazing commodity on trading platforms, giving their best returns.

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Food Price Index Rose 16.23%

Food price index rose 16.23 per cent in the year to May 15.

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The fuel price index climbed 12.08 per cent.

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Meanwhile, the speed of rise in food prices slackened from the previous week”s annual rise of 16.49 per cent.

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The fuel price inflation also slowed to 12.08 per cent from the previous week”s 12.33 per cent.

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The primary articles index was up 15.90 per cent, compared with the previous week”s annual reading of 16.19 per cent.

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Wholesale prices, however, eased in line with expectations to 9.59 per cent in April from a year earlier.

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This in turn provided further evidence that the RBI will hold off from raising interest rates at least until its next scheduled meeting in July.

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Earlier, Planning Commission Member Abhijit Sen stated that food inflation is likely to decrease to 4 to 5 % by November.

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This is from the current over 16 % after the arrival of Kharif (summer) crops.

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Meanwhile, he added that farm sector growth will be altered upwards to 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This, however, is from the earlier estimate of minus 0.2 %.

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Prices have started falling from March after good Rabi arrival.

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Moreover, for some commodities such as onion and potatoes, the decline is very sharp.

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But, however, the overall prices are very high and after Kharif season, prices will commence to decline.

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He also said that it is quite possible food inflation will decline to 4-5 % by November this year.

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On the other hand, experts had predicted a decrease in food inflation with the arrival of Rabi crops in April.

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Mainly due to high prices of vegetables and fruits, food inflation carried on increasing and rose to 16.49 % for the week ended May 8.

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had expressed optimism that overall inflation would decline to 5-6 % by December.

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In addition, on farm sector growth, Sen said growth is expected to be 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This is due to the upward revision in production in third advance estimate.

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In 2010-11, the farm sector growth is likely to be 5-6 % if met department forecast on monsoon comes true.

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Foodgrains production has been revised upwards to 218.19 million tonnes from 216.85 million tonnes quoted in the second advance estimate released in February.

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Wheat production is projected at a record 80.98 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Farmers in Upbeat Mood over Prospects of Commercial Crops

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

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Farmers in Upbeat Mood over Prospects of Commercial Crops

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Farmers in upbeat mood over prospects of commercial crops

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Vagaries of nature may have dampened the mood of farmers in the district of Guntur in Andhra Pradesh with fears lingering over decrease in the yield, but the first signs in the yield of commercial crops are already indicating towards a record production.

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The prolonged drought which delayed the sowing operations in kharif last year meant that the acreage has decreased by about 20,000 acres.

The year 2008-2009, the paddy yield has shot up to 12.96 MT in 2009-2010.

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The drought, however, seems to have hit the prospects of cotton farmers as the yield had been reduced by 1.25 lakh MT.

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As against the total yield of 6.61 lakh MT in the year 2008-2009, the yield has fallen to 5.36 lakh MT in the year 2009-2010.

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In comparison, chilli farmers are smiling as both the acreage and production have shot up considerably.

The yield has shot up by 40,000 MT and the acreage too has increased by about 40,000 hectares.

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In the year 2008-2009, statistics available with the Agriculture Department showed that, chilli was sown in 63, 628 hectares and the cultivable area went up by 67, 867 hectares.

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In Other major Commodities Update, there is a news of soyabeans and corn rice rising the most last week and on the other news, sugar prices surging up by Rs 14/kg in Kerala after the subsidy rollback by state govt.

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Soybeans, Corn Rise Ahead of U.S. Forecasts for Crop Reserves:

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Soybeans rose the most in almost a week on speculation that U.S. crop reserves may be lower than earlier estimates.

Corn and wheat also advanced.

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Soybeans for March delivery rose as much as 13.25 cents, or 1.5 percent, on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest intraday gain since Feb. 2.

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture is expected to cut its projection for soybeans reserves before the 2010 harvests to 221 million bushels in a report on Feb. 9, from the 245 million estimated last month, a Bloomberg News survey showed.

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Subsidy rollback pushes sugar prices by Rs 14/kg in Kerala:

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Kerala government’s recent decision to stop Rs 28-crore subsidy to its grocery retailing arm Supplyco has pushed sugar prices by around Rs 14 per kg in Supplyco’s outfits.

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Though, sugar prices in state-run shops is still lower than the open market price of around Rs 45 per kg or even Nafed-fixed price of Rs 41 per kg, but low stocks have minimized the benefit of low prices.

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CORN………. “The Un-discovered Legend” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “Commodity Corner Series”.

Here we would touch upon the importance of Maize crop in Indian commodity market and its relevance in the context of Indian Scenario 🙂

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CORN………. “The Un-discovered Legend”

Maize, also known as corn, is a cereal which is an important crop after rice and wheat.

The domestication of maize has been dated back as far back as 12,000 years ago. Today, maize is widely cultivated throughout the world, in a greater size with top producing countries like United States, China, Brazil, France, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

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Indian Scenario:

Andhra Pradesh is now the largest producer contributing around 21% of annual maize production.

India ‘s area harvested of maize and yield have risen by mainly on account of rising production of single cross hybrids seeds, its demand and increasing acceptability among farmers.

In India, its cultivation extends from the hot arid plains of Rajasthan and Gujarat to the wet hills of Assam and Bengal.

There are three distinct seasons for the cultivation of maize:

the main season is kharif;

next is Rabi in Peninsular India and Bihar and

in spring in northern India.

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Normally, higher yields have been recorded in the rabi and spring crops.

Over 85 per cent of the maize acreage is sown under rain-fed conditions during the monsoon when over 80 per cent of the annual rainfall is received.

However, this year due to the erratic monsoon production has been affected, as a result of which maize prices have been in uptrend since the withdrawal of monsoon from the country.

During 2008-9, Indian exported 3 million tonnes of maize and 12,000 tonnes of maize seed worth of Rs 2,400 crore and Rs 2,000 crore respectively.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would touch upon the issues like Potential source of demand for Maize crop, Industrial Demand and PVO (Price-volume-open Interest) of MAize crops.

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POTATOES … GOOD SOURCE OF VITAMIN M (MONEY) – Part 1

POTATOES ………. GOOD SOURCE OF VITAMIN M (MONEY)

POTATOES ………. GOOD SOURCE OF VITAMIN M (MONEY)

Commodity Check :

Potato is probably the most popular food item in the Indian diet. Potato is a very rich source of starch. It also contains phosphorus, calcium, iron and some vitamins.

Indian Scenario

India is the third largest potato-producing country in the world, after China and Russia,with a total acreage of 14 lakh hectares, producing 250 lakh tonnes of the crop.

Potato is cultivated both as a Kharif & Rabi crop, under assured irrigation during short winter days from October to March.

Potato cultivation is more concentrated in the Gangetic plain comprising Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal.

Price Movement

The price of potatoes from UP, Haryana and Punjab in the four key wholesale mandis of Delhi, Azadpur, Okhla, Keshavpuram and Ghazipur, ranges from Rs 10 per kg to Rs 16per kg, up from Rs 6-15 per kg a couple of months ago.

The prices, however, saw an up-trend touching highest in the last five years, at Rs.1,400 per quintal (100 kg) owing to poor production in the neighboring states of Bihar and West Bengal.

The current potato prices in the market are reigning between Rs.1,400 and Rs.1,700 per quintal.

The horticulture department expects the acreage to rise to 545,000 hectares this season in the backdrop of bullish prices.

The farmers would prefer potato since this would fill in their paddy losses without affecting their rabi wheat crop in winters.

The trend could again result in windfall production of potato next year, causing severe storage problems, as was the scenario last year.

Last year, the prices nosedived so much that the cold storage had no space and the crop was forced to lie on roads.

Prices…. Fireworks

Food prices are likely to go up in the coming weeks as floods in the southern states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have destroyed crops.

Due to crop failure in states like Maharashtra, West Bengal and Karnataka, the potato crop output this year has fallen by about 20%.

The common man has been hit hard by the rising prices of potatoes and vegetables which have soared by 81% and 43% respectively in the past one year.

The prices are unlikely to come down before December as new crop is likely to arrive only in late November, which will then ease the supply pressure.

Rising prices of other vegetables are also providing support to the potato market. The potatoes available during April-October period are largely supplied by cold storages.

About 16-17 MMt of potatoes are estimated to have been stored from 2008-09 crop to meet the demand in lean season.

According to the Nasik-based National Horticultural Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF), potato production in 2009-10 is estimated to be about 31 million metric tonnes (MMt), same as last year.

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