Posts Tagged ‘kharif season’

Soybean Plantation Area Declines by 3.76% in 2010 Kharif Season

Soybean plantation during the 2010 kharif season in the country has declined by 3.76% to 93.075 lakh hectares from 96.709 lakh hectares in kharif 2009. Meanwhile, Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean producing state of India, has reported a growth of 4.17% in area under soybean sowing to 55.193 lakh hectares from 52.985 lakh hectares for the year ago period.

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During kharif 2010, there was about 9.2%, 7.15%, 6.9%, 2.5% and 2.3% increase in area under soybean plantation in Jabalpur, Gwalior, Bhopal, Indore, Sagar divisions of Madhya Pradesh, respectively as compared to kharif 2009, as per the data released by the Soybean Processors Association of India.

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One of the major reasons behind year-on-year decline in total area under soybean sowing during kharif 2010 was almost 16% drop in plantation of the oilseed in the state of Maharashtra. The state that stands second in soybean production in the country, bought only 25.529 lakh hectares of land under soybean plantation this year as compared to 30.320 lakh hectares in kharif 2009.

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Drop in plantation in the state can be attributed to late onset of monsoon. In Vidharbh region major parts of sowing area reduced due to effect of monsoon and good minimum support price (MSP) price of pulse crop.

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CASTOR SEED………. “Obsessed With Profit”

Castor, being a non-edible oilseed, has economic importance of its oil yielding seeds.Usage of castor seed products has grown tremendously over the years due to their biodegradable and eco-friendly nature. Looking at the profit it has given to the portfolio, it seems like the nature has blessed the investors, as if money sprouting out of the shiny seeds of castor plants.

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Consumption Pattern: The average Indian consumption of castor oil is 100,000 ton per year. The Indian variety of castor has 48 % oil content of which 42% can be extracted,while the cake retains the rest. On an average soap makers accounts for 25,000 ton while paint and allied sectors consumes 35,000 ton of the Indian consumption. In internal combustion engines, castor oil is renowned for its ability to lubricate under extreme conditions and temperatures, such as in air-cooled engines. The lubricants company Castrol takes its name from castor oil. Castor seed meal is offered in bulk & in plastic bags.

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Domestic scenario: India’s castor production fluctuates between 0.6 to 1 million tonnes a year. Castor is sown in August and harvested in Dec-Jan every year with majority of arrivals coming after February. Gujarat accounts for over 80% of India’s castor seed production, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

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FACTS & FIGURES

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•Total area under Castor crop in India for the year 2009-10 is 7.40 lakh hectares. It has decreased by 10% as compared to previous year.

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•Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in India for the year 2009-10 is 9.34 lakh tonnes. It has decreased by 4% as compared to previous year.

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•Average yield for the year 2009-10 is 1261 kg/hectare as against 1180 kg/hectare during the year 2008-09. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.

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Kharif sowing: This kharif season the acreage under castor seed is far below the normal area of 8.130 lakh hectares. However, the good news according to the latest sowing data is that farmers have planted 1.252 lakh hectares which is more than the 1.115 lakh hectares covered at this time last year, are shifting from castor seed to cotton. The spurred kharif sowing figures of 66.090 lakh hectares under cotton as compared to 48.470 lakh hectares last year, itself depict that farmers this time have brought in more land under cotton. The reason being is the reaping profits from the later.

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EXIM scenario: Every month 40,000 tonnes castor oil and 5,000-8,000 tonne castor derivatives leave for foreign shores from India, From India castor oil is exported through mainly Kandla port. India exported more than 2.25 lakh ton castor seed till June this year compared to 1.22 lakh ton in same period of previous year. In May India exported 54000 ton castor oil. China imported 90000 ton castor oil in June only this year. Indian Government is providing 5% tax rebate to castor seed & oil exporter under Vishesh krishi and gram udyog yojana.

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…….. At the futures trade (Source: Forward market commission)

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•The Rajkot Commodity Exchange Ltd., Rajkot – The near month contract (i.e. June 2010) was quoted at its highest at Rs.3490/- per 100 kg on 30.6.2010 and at its lowest at Rs. 3159/- per 100 kg on 16.6.2010. During the fortnight, the total value of trade was Rs.354.95 crore. The net open position in the near month contract was at its highest at 25 MTs on 16.6.2010.

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•Bombay Commodity Exchange Ltd., Mumbai – The near month contract (i.e. August 2010) contract was highest price at Rs. 3522.00 on 30.6.2010 and lowest price at Rs.3256.00 on 16.6.2010. During the period, the total value of Castor seed was Rs.2.20 crore.

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Current scenario: Due do increase in demand in international markets, the prices of castor seed has increased by almost 15% recently and crossed the level of Rs 700/ 20 kg first time. Despite good monsoon in castor seed growing states the prices is not likely to go down as better demand from US, China and Europe.

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The snap shot of the future markets shows that the price is at a year high at Rs. 3748/ quintal giving a return of whooping return of 32% as on 13th July, 2010 from the year beginning. The forward month contract are in contango situation. The upward momentum can remain intact until the arrivals of new crop.

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Food Price Index Rose 16.23%

Food price index rose 16.23 per cent in the year to May 15.

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The fuel price index climbed 12.08 per cent.

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Meanwhile, the speed of rise in food prices slackened from the previous week”s annual rise of 16.49 per cent.

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The fuel price inflation also slowed to 12.08 per cent from the previous week”s 12.33 per cent.

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The primary articles index was up 15.90 per cent, compared with the previous week”s annual reading of 16.19 per cent.

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Wholesale prices, however, eased in line with expectations to 9.59 per cent in April from a year earlier.

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This in turn provided further evidence that the RBI will hold off from raising interest rates at least until its next scheduled meeting in July.

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Earlier, Planning Commission Member Abhijit Sen stated that food inflation is likely to decrease to 4 to 5 % by November.

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This is from the current over 16 % after the arrival of Kharif (summer) crops.

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Meanwhile, he added that farm sector growth will be altered upwards to 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This, however, is from the earlier estimate of minus 0.2 %.

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Prices have started falling from March after good Rabi arrival.

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Moreover, for some commodities such as onion and potatoes, the decline is very sharp.

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But, however, the overall prices are very high and after Kharif season, prices will commence to decline.

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He also said that it is quite possible food inflation will decline to 4-5 % by November this year.

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On the other hand, experts had predicted a decrease in food inflation with the arrival of Rabi crops in April.

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Mainly due to high prices of vegetables and fruits, food inflation carried on increasing and rose to 16.49 % for the week ended May 8.

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had expressed optimism that overall inflation would decline to 5-6 % by December.

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In addition, on farm sector growth, Sen said growth is expected to be 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This is due to the upward revision in production in third advance estimate.

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In 2010-11, the farm sector growth is likely to be 5-6 % if met department forecast on monsoon comes true.

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Foodgrains production has been revised upwards to 218.19 million tonnes from 216.85 million tonnes quoted in the second advance estimate released in February.

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Wheat production is projected at a record 80.98 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Farm Production likely to Go Down

Farm Production likely to Go Down

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Due to decline in kharif production on account of drought and floods in several parts of India,the output from agriculture sector is expected to decrease by 0.2% in the current fiscal against 1.6% growth in the previous year stated the Central Statistical Organization (CSO).

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However, late last month, the RBI in its Q3 review of the monetary policy had projected that the agricultural GDP growth in 2009-10 is likely to be near zero.

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Production of foodgrains and oilseeds is likely to decline by 8% and 5% in the 2009-10 crop year compared with the previous year.

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The sugarcane output is likely to dip by 11.8% and that could add up to pressure on the sugar prices.

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Meanwhile, among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 2.5% and 4.8%, respectively, in 2009-10.

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Rice production is estimated to be 71.65 million tonnes in the 2009-10 kharif season as compared to the actual production of 84.58 million tonnes in the previous season.

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On the other hand, production of coarse cereals is also likely to fall to 22.76 million tonnes from the actual production of 28.34 million tonnes in the 2008-09 kharif season.

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Bull Run in Commodities May Continue

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

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Bull run in commodities may continue


Bull run in commodities may continue:

Spurt in prices to be driven by dollar weakness, rise in demand and low supplies.

The global bull run in commodities is likely to continue through next year due to dollar weakness, supply restraint and, eventually, a pickup in demand.

Crude oil prices are also up 74 per cent, but the energy complex as a whole is down, as natural gas prices are weighed down by massive oversupply.

Precious metals have also risen 37 per cent.

The base metals complex has performed well this year, driven by the rebound in growth in China, although some of the increased demand has gone into inventory.

Sugar and soybeans have been the exception in 2009, rising sharply while the rest of the agricultural complex underperformed.

This was largely on supply issues; improved crops in 2009-10 are expected to flood the market, dampening prices.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can read about Govt estimation about the Edible oil output which says that Edible oil output may dip 7.4% in 2009-10.

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Edible oil output may dip 7.4% in 2009-10:

The government today said edible oil output is likely to decline 7.4 per cent to 7.96 million tonnes in the 2009-10.

Edible oil production, last year, stood at 8.6 million tonnes.

Oil season runs from November to October.

Production/net availability of edible oil from all domestic sources is estimated to be 7.96 million tonnes in the 2009-10,” Minister of State for Agriculture K V Thomas said.

The demand of edible oil in the country is estimated to have increased to 17.79 million tones this year, he said.

The domestic edible oil production is likely to decline following a dip in oilseeds production, which is estimated to be 15.23 million tonnes in the kharif season against 17.88 million tonnes in the last season, the official data showed.

Thomas said, “There is a wide gap in the production and demand of edible oil in the country and imports are resorted to bridge the gap.”

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

Govt Decides Against Rice Imports

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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Govt Decides Against Rice Imports

Govt decides against rice imports:

In a calculated move to signal categorically to the world market that India was not in a desperate situation with respect to rice, the government said on Friday that it will not import rice for now.

The immediate implication of this move is that retail prices of rice, up 15 per cent over last year, will remain firm at least until early next year.

Rice output is estimated to have dropped 15 million tonnes due to poor monsoons this kharif.

The government has, over the last two days, put in place strictures that will force traders to report purchases of more than 10,000 tonnes of rice in a bid to check prices.

Punjab has also imposed stock holding limits on traders and millers for both rice and pulses.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see how Government has bowed down to demands of Farmers after their mass protest in capital this week.

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Government to amend new sugarcane price rule:

The government on Friday said it would amend a new sugarcane pricing rule, bowing to protests held in the capital by farmers demanding higher prices for their produce.

The government would delete the contentious part of the new cane pricing rule, Railways Minister Mamata Banerjee told reporters after a meeting of senior ministers.

Cane farmers believe the new cane price rule, which puts the onus on state governments if they decide to raise the cane floor rates fixed by the federal government, will curtail their bargaining power.

Earlier, Farmers from Uttar Pradesh (UP) state in northern India, which produces almost half of the country’s cane, have been on warpath for about three weeks to press for higher prices, forcing Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to consider changes in fixing cane prices.

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Rising Sugar Prices Threatens to Make Coming Festival Season Bitter :(

Skyrocket prices of Sugar

Rising sugar prices are threatening to make the coming festival season bitter and are causing concerns for many consumers.

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Moreover, in order to meet increasing demand, India will be forced to import sugar in large quantities and this in all possibility will further increase sugar prices.

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However, local production has plunged to 14.5 million tonnes in the 2008-09 with demand at 23 million tonnes, the deadline for duty-free raw sugar imports has been extended by nine months to December 2010.

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Additionally, the government is going to start a fortnightly sale of non-levy sugar with the September quota set at 2.11 lakh tonnes 🙂

This year most deficits have been met by opening stocks and next year they’ll need much larger imports of about 6 million tonnes of raw sugar and 1 million tonnes of white sugar.

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Moreover, nearly 4 million tonnes of sugar have been already purchased by the Indian industry, while India’s sugar shopping spree abroad has sent prices of refined sugar in the global market skyrocketing.

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Additionally, it is said that the world market has recorded a 28-year high and has shot up 60% to $610 per tonne in August 2009 from a level of $380 per tonne in October 2008.

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India Will Import 30% of Its Sugar Following Drought :(

India Will Import 30% of Its Sugar Following Drought

India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, may depend on imports to meet almost a third of its demand next year as a drought in the major growing regions threatens cane yield.

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Local sugar consumption may total 23 million metric tons in the year beginning Oct. 1  and 30 percent of the supplies will be met through imports.

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India’s production in the season starting Oct. 1 will lag behind the demand of 22 million tons.

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Indian authorities are raiding hoarders to boost the availability of sugar, edible oils and lentils during the August-to-December festival season and cool prices.

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India has set limits on the amount of sugar that traders and institutional users can stockpile as it faces a shortfall in supplies for a second year.

The production of sugar in India during year 2008 and 2009 sugar season has not been adequate to meet the domestic demand of the country.

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India’s dwindling stocks and rising demand have helped raw sugar futures surge to the highest in nearly three decades on prospects of large purchases by the world’s top sugar consumer.

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Weak monsoon rains have further raised supply concerns in India.

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Beside that, there is another Agri Update that Cotton and kharif crop has started arriving in mandis of Punjab and Haryana.

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Although in small quantity, but both the states are hoping to achieve combined cotton output of 45 lakh bales during this year in view of surge in area under crop.

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“As cotton growers have started bringing their crop to grain markets, almost 500 bales per day are arriving in Punjab and 350 bales in Haryana,” traders said.

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The price of fresh cotton is ruling at Rs. 2,550 to Rs. 2,700 per quintal, they said while adding that cotton arrivals are going to pick up in mandis in coming days.

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Cotton crop was the only crop during this Kharif season 2009-10 which has seen increase in its area in both Punjab and Haryana despite the fact that area under other crops such as paddy, sugarcane guar went down considerably due to deficient rains.

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India’s dwindling stocks and rising demand have helped raw sugar futures surge to the highest in nearly three decades on prospects of large purchases by the world’s top sugar consumer.

Weak monsoon rains have further raised supply concerns in India.

Monsoon Deficit Narrows But Just Slightly

monsoon deficit

The rainfall in India seems to have improved a little with the monsoon shortage being at 28% below average for the week ended August 16.

While as on August 12, the overall rainfall in the country was 29% below normal.

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However, rainfall during June 1 to August 16 was at 434.6 mm against the historical average of 602.1 mm while the rainfall in the northwest was 40% below average as on August 16 while in northeast it eased slightly to 32%.

However, the shortfall in central India increased to 21%.

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The Impact Of Significant Below Normal Monsoon:

The current situation definitely does not bode well for the agriculture output.

While in the past, the drought like situation has severely impacted the economic growth (1%-2%), this time the impact could be lower due to:

1. Agri contribution to the overall GDP has been coming down and now stands at ~17% (v/s > 45% in 1970s and > 30% in 1990s)

2. Irrigated land to total land ratio has been improving,

3. National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) and Farm loan waiver,

4. Significant increase in budgetary allocation to rural development.

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However, if the overall monsoon remains 20-25% below normal and the spatial distribution does not improve, it is likely that FY10 GDP forecasts may be revised downward by 50-100bps.

Increased spending by the Govt and faster implementation of some of the infrastructure projects may limit the damage to ex-agri GDP growth as mentioned above.

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However, Worst affected monsoon deficit areas will have problems of food availability, employment, and drinking water.

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Moreover, India is at a risk of 60-100 basis points drop in GDP growth forecast of 6.4% for FY 2010 while agriculture growth is decreasing by around 5-8% in the current fiscal.

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In addition, rice production during the kharif season this year may decrease by about 10 million tonnes due to declining monsoon in the country while it produced nearly 100 million tonnes of rice in both rabi and kharif seasons in 2008-09.

However, some shortage in production of oilseeds and sugarcane is also expected.

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However, macroeconomic consequences may not be very serious due to the weak monsoon owing to the reasons stated above.

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The Impact Of Significant Below Normal Monsoon: