Posts Tagged ‘investors’

Weekly Update 1-5th November 2010

Global markets saw profit booking ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary easing at its meeting on 2-3 November 2010 in order to spur growth and to reduce the unemployment rate. Economists expect the Fed to buy between $80 billion and $100 billion worth of assets each month in a new program to stimulate the economy. IMF pointed out that global liquidity, by whichthey meant money supply growth in the G-4 economies of Japan, the US, the euro zone and the UK, has an impact five times as large as domestic liquidity on what it called the liquidity receiving economies, or the emerging markets.

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The U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 2 percent annual rate in the third quarter after a 1.7 percent increase in the previous three months. Japanese factory production fell 1.9 percent in September from August and core consumer prices saw a decline of 1.1 percent from a year earlier added to worries that stronger yen is affecting economy expansion. G-20 finance ministers and central bankers said they will refrain from “competitive devaluation” and let markets have a bigger role in setting foreign-exchange values.

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Citing Inflation a major concern, RBI has last hiked the policy rates by 25 bps in September for the fifth time. Headline inflation has come off to single digit and is likely to come down further going ahead as harvest season produce is expected to come in the market. The government recently allowed duty-free import of rice and wheat and has released grains from its stocks to rein in food price rise. On the manufacturing side, Industrial production growth dropped to 5.6 percent in August from 15.2 percent in July. The growth of six infrastructure industries has further slowed to 2.5% in September, pulled down by contraction in output of coaland petroleum refinery.Though possibility of hike of another 25 bps by RBI in its meeting on 2nd November cannot be ruled out but a large section of the market believes that this timearound RBI may not touch upon the policy rates citing inflation coming down going forward and moderation in manufacturing activity.

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Further the actions taken so far by RBI has yet to give any material affect in the economy as even after the hikes in policy, the banks have yet to make adjustments in interest rates. Nifty has support between 5930-5840 and Sensex between 19640-19200.Sea saw movements in commodities is showing the nervousness among the investors ahead of Fed meeting which is scheduled in this week. If Fed goes for second round of quantitative then it can give confidence to economy and spill over can be seen in commodity as well. On the other side, if Fed goes for less than expected money injection in economy then we can see some downside in base metals and energy.

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Dollar index slid about 6 percent since early September on the talk of same “QE2” in US. Bullions were the major beneficiary of this fall in dollar index. October was a volatile month for commodities in which commodities reacted on every speculation over quantitative easing and agricultural markets going their own way as crops forecasts were cut. Commodities end month with modest gain. Investors should adopt cautious approach ahead of meeting.

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RED HERRING PROSPECTUS: A CAREFUL EXERCISE

Initial Public Offering (IPO) is an exercise done by a company for raising capital by going public. IPO is raised generally in two ways either through fixed price or through Book Building. Generally, most of the companies follow the book building process. For this purpose, the company assigns the Merchant Banker as a Book Running Lead Manager (BRLM) for the IPO to handle the responsibility of Book Building Process.

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Book Building is a mechanism through which a consensus price of IPO can be determined on the basis of bids received from the informed investors such as Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), Non-Institutional Buyers (NIBs) and Retail Investors. The process helps in making a correct evaluation of a company’s potential and the price of its shares. In most of the IPOs generally the allocation of the total issue into these 3 categories comprises of 50%, 15%, 35% of the total issue respectively.

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However when the dilution of the promoters stake is less than 25% the minimum allocating proportion for these categories changes to 60%, 10%, 30% of the total issue,respectively. The company aspiring to be public, files Red Herring Prospectus (RHP),framed by merchant banker, to the regulatory body SEBI that is supposed to cover all the important information about the company, its promoters and its businesses with due diligence.

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RHP is supposed to be the most important document for the company as it acts as a medium of imparting all the critical information regarding the issuer company to the public.Generally prospectus spreads over 300-400 pages. However, investors can concentrate on few key chapters to have the overall understanding of the public issue. Industry Overview, Company Overview, Capital Structure, Objects of the issue, Financial Information and Management discussion and Analysis are some of the chapters that one should necessarily focus on.

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Let’s understand the relevance of each of these topics one by one:

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Industry Overview: This chapter covers the prevailing market scenario of the industry in which the company operates. We get to know that how much the particular industry contributes to the growth of the country’s economy. That is the behavior of the industry with respect to the growth momentum of the country’s economy. Moreover it entails the government plans and initiatives, budgetary allocation in accordance with five year plans for the industry. This gives the picture of potential opportunity in the industry and its key drivers. It also includes the various linkages regarding the relation of industry to the domestic and global economy.

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Business Overview: This compasses all the information related to the business domain of the company – how the business commenced its operations, grown over the period. The product details of the company and where does it lies in the value chain of the industry. The product scope,how the distribution channel works, the marketing strategy, raw material procurement, details about the vendors, clients and their relation withthe company, the revenue generation process, target market, location of operation. All these information helps in knowing the strengths and weaknesses of the company. It also gives information regarding the future aspects of the company.

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How the company is expecting to expand its business, strategies to increase the market share of the company.

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Capital Structure: It tells us about the shareholding pattern of the company. The constituents of the present equity capital of the company, since inception to the present pattern of the shareholding. The details of the how it has raised its capital under the due period. It gives us the details aboutwho are the stakeholders along with their respective stake in the company.

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Objects of the Issue: This chapter assumes high degree of significance in the RHP as it answers the very first question that comes to the mind of the investors that for what reason the company is going public. It entails the objectives of the issue as where and how the company is going to deploy the funds raised from the issue. At times the company induces the fund requirements from the internal accruals that can be from the present business profits of the company or through the debt syndication from banks along with the issue proceeds.

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Company sometimes also utilize the issue proceeds to repay its debt so as to reduce its interest burden. Thus, it contains the purposes of the issue with their respective amount being required.

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Financial Information: This includes all the financial statements of the company on the stand alone and consolidated basis viz. Profit and loss statement, balance sheet, fund flow statement. These statements show the performance of the company from past 4-5 years along with the annexure that details various heads of these statements. Financial Statements helps the investors in knowing the health of the company in numbers.Various ratios and multiples are arrived with the help of these statements.

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Management Discussion and Analysis: This chapter summarizes the company businesses and its development in due course of time. Year-on-year financial comparison is explained in this part of the document. This helps us in knowing the management’s efficiency to grow a company. Certain important events, factors affecting the operations of the company or some specific strategies of the company are explained in this part of the document.To sum up, RHP being the formal document of the company plays an integral role in assessing the company’s business prospects and thus helps investors in taking decision for subscribing an IPO or otherwise.

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However, it is generally perceived as a lengthy exercise by some section of investors.This can be achieved by going through the above discussed topics that can impart all the relevant information of the company leading to a wise investment decision. After all, “Moneywise Be wise”.

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Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

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Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

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China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

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India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

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Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

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Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

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Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

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Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

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SPECIAL EVENTS: Series I: Open Offer

An open offer is an offer by an existing shareholder or a new shareholder of a publicly listed company, to acquire a certain number of shares from other shareholders of the target company. An open offer can either be voluntary or mandatory.

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Voluntary or Mandatory?

At any time, any entity can come out with a voluntary open offer to acquire as much number of shares of that company from other shareholders at any price which that entity is willing to offer.Whereas, if the open offer gets triggered as per the SEBI SAST guidelines (such as acquiring 15% or more stake in a company), then it is mandatory for the entity to come out with an open offer to acquire an additional minimum of 20% shares of the target company via the Open Offer route.In either of the case, the eligible shareholders, as per their discretion, may or may not tender their shares in the open offer.

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Minimum Pricing

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The price at which the mandatory open offer is to be provided cannot be below the higher of the following:

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1. Average of the weekly high and low of the closing prices of the shares of the company during the past 26 weeks.

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2. Average of the daily high and low prices of the shares of the company for the past 2 weeks.

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3. The price at which the entity coming out with an open offer acquired the shares which triggered the open offer.

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4. Price paid by the acquirer for acquisition of shares of the company, if any, by way of allotment in a public or rights or preferential issue during the past 26 weeks.

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Minimum Acceptance Ratio

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This ratio is the critical criteria in deciding the benefit that may likely accrue to the investors who tender their shares in the open offer. As the name itself suggests,minimum acceptance ratio gives us the minimum number of shares that shall be accepted in an open offer. For example, a minimum acceptance ratio of 10% means that for every 100 shares tendered by a shareholder in the open offer, a minimum of 10 shares shall be accepted in the open offer at the open offer price and rest of the90 shares shall be returned back to the shareholder after the closure of the open offer.

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The minimum acceptance ratio is calculated as follows:

It should be noted that the above figure is arrived at by assuming that all the eligible shareholders actually tender all of their shares in the open offer.

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Example: To understand the whole concept better, let us take an example.

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On September 9, 2010, Accelya Holding World S.L. (“Accelya”) agreed to buy the promoter stake of 38.60% or 56,69,478 equity shares of Kale Consultants Limited(“KCL”) at a price of `172 per equity share. This triggers the mandatory open offer as Accelya was acquiring a stake of more than 15% (i.e. 38.60%) in KCL.The mandatory open offer is for acquiring a minimum of 20% additional shares of KCL by Accelya from the shareholders of the company KCL, except the existingpromoters. This is because the shares have been acquired from the promoters itself and that event itself triggered the open offer in the first place.The open offer has to happen at a minimum price of `172, (as per SEBI pricing guidelines explained above).

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The open offer shall be for 20% additional shares of KCL that works out to 29,37,832 shares. The shares that can participate in the open offer are those which are heldby all the shareholders except the existing promoters, i.e. 61.40% ( 100% – 38.60%) of the total outstanding shares of the company. This works out to 90,19,684 shares.

 

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Hence, for every 100 shares that an investor tenders in the open offer, a minimum of 32 shares will be accepted in the open offer and rest of the 68 shares will bereturned back to the investor.

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Breakeven Price

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In the example we’ve discussed, the minimum acceptance ratio is 32.57% and the open offer price is 172. As on 8th Oct’10, the closing price of shares of KCL is151.25 on NSE. So if an investor had purchased 100 shares at that price his total outgo would be 15,125. On tendering these 100 shares, 32 shares shall be acceptedin the offer at 172, giving him an inflow of 5,504 ( 32 shares x 172). The remaining investment of the investor is 9,621 ( 15,125 – 5,504). This remaining amountneeds to recovered from the remaining 68 shares ( 100 – 32) that the investor will get back once the open offer closes. Thus, the investor will need to sell the remaining68 shares at a price of 141.49 ( 9,621 ÷ 68) to recover his original investment of 15,125. This, 141.49, is the breakeven price in this case. The investor stands to gainonly if he is able to sell his remaining 68 shares above this price, post the open offer.

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What if some shareholders do not tender their shares in the open offer?

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In our example of KCL shares, assume a certain shareholder, say Ratnabali Capital Markets Ltd (“Ratnabali“) which holds 3.48% (5,10,538) shares of the company as ofJune 30th, 2010, does not tender its shares in the open offer. This shall then improve the acceptance ratio from 32.57% to 34.53% for the other shareholders whotender their shares in the offer.

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Therefore, the number of shares accepted in the open offer shall increase to 34 (from the earlier figure of 32 in the example discussed) and accordingly, the newbreakeven price shall stand reduced from erstwhile 141.49 to 140.56.Hence, if any shareholder decides not to tender his shares in the open offer, then it becomes beneficial for the other shareholders who are indeed tendering theirshares in the open offer.

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Note:1. For the sake of simplicity, transaction costs have been ignored in the example discussed in this article.2. Prices and shareholding data sourced from National Stock Exchange.

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Gold ETFs………..Safe Haven Against Market Risk

Not too long ago, when buying physical gold was the only option for investing in gold. However, the launch of Gold ETFs has opened another option for investors. When the stock markets take a sharp fall investors to look beyond equities and consider other investment avenues. In that case gold provide safe heaven. By enabling investors to invest in gold without holding it in physical form, it offer a rather unique investment opportunity to investors.

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Gold ETFs are commodity exchange traded funds which track prices of gold. Hence, they can be bought and sold like stocks on a real-time basis. These funds are passively managed and they mirror domestic gold prices.

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How Gold ETFs Work

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Gold ETFs are essentially different to gold. The manner in which they track the gold prices makes gold ETF products unique. Some gold ETFs buy and physically hold gold while others invest in futures contracts. Physically-backed gold ETFs will obviously track the spot price of gold more accurately, since the value of the underlying holdings depends solely on the market price of bullion.

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ETFs that using futures contracts will track the spot price of bullion very closely, but may deviate occasionally due to phenomenon’s such as backwardation and contango in commodity futures markets.

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For investors with significant gold holdings, diversification across custodians and geographies may be desired as well. Some investors may sleep better at night knowing their gold is securely stored in multiple locations in different parts of the world. For this reason, London-based ETF Securities offers an ETF that stores its gold in Switzerland, a country long known for being friendly to investors due to different reasons.

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The holding of world largest gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust, rose to 1295.516 metric tons by August 18.

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Correlation with dollar

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Gold generally traded inversely with dollar. Gold tends to rise when the dollar is weak However gold traded positive co-relation with dollar recently. It can be seen as uncertainty in global recovery which has supported both gold and dollar index.

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Criteria for selecting a Gold ETF

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Ideally, investors must select a Gold ETF that holds a significant portion of its portfolio in gold and a fund which has a lower expense ratio. Higher expenses translate into lower returns for investors.

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Advantages of Gold ETFs

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? Gold ETFs can be bought at the prevailing market rate without paying any premium

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•Quick and convenient dealing through demat account.

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•No storage and security issue for investors

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• Transparent pricing

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• Can be traded on stock exchange like buying / selling a stock.

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• Ideal for retail investor as minimum lot size to trade is one unit on secondary market. The resale value will be always safe

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•NAV of a unit will track price of approximately ½ or 1 gram of gold

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• As per SEBI regulations, the purity of underlying gold in Gold ETFs is 0.995 fineness and above.

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•long-term capital gains tax is applicable after twelve months from the date of purchase

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•Gold ETFs are not subject to Wealth Tax.

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Gold ETFs turnover in domestic market The table shows the Gold ETFs available in India and there turnover. Among 7 Gold ETFs GOLD BEES accounted for 60.30 % of the total trading volumes during the month July. Since July 2009 monthly turnover is increasing rapidly due to growing uncertainty in global recovery.



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CASTOR SEED………. “Obsessed With Profit”

Castor, being a non-edible oilseed, has economic importance of its oil yielding seeds.Usage of castor seed products has grown tremendously over the years due to their biodegradable and eco-friendly nature. Looking at the profit it has given to the portfolio, it seems like the nature has blessed the investors, as if money sprouting out of the shiny seeds of castor plants.

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Consumption Pattern: The average Indian consumption of castor oil is 100,000 ton per year. The Indian variety of castor has 48 % oil content of which 42% can be extracted,while the cake retains the rest. On an average soap makers accounts for 25,000 ton while paint and allied sectors consumes 35,000 ton of the Indian consumption. In internal combustion engines, castor oil is renowned for its ability to lubricate under extreme conditions and temperatures, such as in air-cooled engines. The lubricants company Castrol takes its name from castor oil. Castor seed meal is offered in bulk & in plastic bags.

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Domestic scenario: India’s castor production fluctuates between 0.6 to 1 million tonnes a year. Castor is sown in August and harvested in Dec-Jan every year with majority of arrivals coming after February. Gujarat accounts for over 80% of India’s castor seed production, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.

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FACTS & FIGURES

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•Total area under Castor crop in India for the year 2009-10 is 7.40 lakh hectares. It has decreased by 10% as compared to previous year.

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•Estimated total production of Castor Seeds in India for the year 2009-10 is 9.34 lakh tonnes. It has decreased by 4% as compared to previous year.

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•Average yield for the year 2009-10 is 1261 kg/hectare as against 1180 kg/hectare during the year 2008-09. It has increased by 7% as compared to previous year.

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Kharif sowing: This kharif season the acreage under castor seed is far below the normal area of 8.130 lakh hectares. However, the good news according to the latest sowing data is that farmers have planted 1.252 lakh hectares which is more than the 1.115 lakh hectares covered at this time last year, are shifting from castor seed to cotton. The spurred kharif sowing figures of 66.090 lakh hectares under cotton as compared to 48.470 lakh hectares last year, itself depict that farmers this time have brought in more land under cotton. The reason being is the reaping profits from the later.

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EXIM scenario: Every month 40,000 tonnes castor oil and 5,000-8,000 tonne castor derivatives leave for foreign shores from India, From India castor oil is exported through mainly Kandla port. India exported more than 2.25 lakh ton castor seed till June this year compared to 1.22 lakh ton in same period of previous year. In May India exported 54000 ton castor oil. China imported 90000 ton castor oil in June only this year. Indian Government is providing 5% tax rebate to castor seed & oil exporter under Vishesh krishi and gram udyog yojana.

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…….. At the futures trade (Source: Forward market commission)

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•The Rajkot Commodity Exchange Ltd., Rajkot – The near month contract (i.e. June 2010) was quoted at its highest at Rs.3490/- per 100 kg on 30.6.2010 and at its lowest at Rs. 3159/- per 100 kg on 16.6.2010. During the fortnight, the total value of trade was Rs.354.95 crore. The net open position in the near month contract was at its highest at 25 MTs on 16.6.2010.

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•Bombay Commodity Exchange Ltd., Mumbai – The near month contract (i.e. August 2010) contract was highest price at Rs. 3522.00 on 30.6.2010 and lowest price at Rs.3256.00 on 16.6.2010. During the period, the total value of Castor seed was Rs.2.20 crore.

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Current scenario: Due do increase in demand in international markets, the prices of castor seed has increased by almost 15% recently and crossed the level of Rs 700/ 20 kg first time. Despite good monsoon in castor seed growing states the prices is not likely to go down as better demand from US, China and Europe.

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The snap shot of the future markets shows that the price is at a year high at Rs. 3748/ quintal giving a return of whooping return of 32% as on 13th July, 2010 from the year beginning. The forward month contract are in contango situation. The upward momentum can remain intact until the arrivals of new crop.

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INVEST IN DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY Final Part :)

Lots of market participants, who wish for regular income by way of dividends, look for stocks which maintain a steady or an upward trend of dividend declaration.

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Here is a list of few companies.

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Ideally, a low market price when combined with high dividend payout gives high dividend yields. Dividend yield is an uncomplicated tool for investor to evaluate his investments in stocks and to choose the right portfolio depending on his priority.

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Here are two things which will be very helpful for investor:

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Dividend-capture strategy – Investors using a dividend-capture strategy will simply buy the stock prior to the ex-dividend date, and would ensure that they would receive the payment by holding the security until the ex dividend date, and then sell the security. In theory, they should be able to quickly buy and sell a number of securities near their ex dividend dates and capture numerous dividends. However, in practice the truth is that this is not always the case.

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Dividend Arbitrage – It is an options trading strategy that involves purchasing put options and an equivalent amount of underlying stock before the ex-dividend date and then exercising the put after collecting the dividend. When used on a security with low volatility (causing lower options premiums) and a high dividend, dividend arbitrage can create profits, assuming very low to no risk.

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Concluding I would like to say that all investors have mainly two objectives. First is earning from capital appreciation and the second is profits from dividends. And, it is the skill of any stock to offer both these incomes that determine its market price. Investors can increase their returns by investing in dividend-yielding stocks, especially following a continuous stream of dividends. Considering the fact that dividends are tax free, it makes all the more sense to target these stocks.

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