Posts Tagged ‘interest rates’

SMC Global Securities Selects SunGard Kiodex Risk Workbench

SMC Global Securities, one of India’s largest brokering firms, has selected SunGard’s Kiodex Risk Workbench, a fully integrated Web-based risk management solution, to help its clients in hedging their price risk in foreign exchange, commodities and interest rates.

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SMC Global Securities also selected Kiodex Global Market Data for its independent market data needs.

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Kiodex will help SMC Global Securities establish a corporate hedging desk by assisting with deal capture, reporting and risk analysis of its client portfolios. SMC chose SunGard’s Kiodex Risk Workbench because of its robust risk management tools and its software-as-a-service (SaaS) delivery model, helping companies quickly bring new business to market.

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Mr. D K Aggarwal, chairman and managing director of SMC Comtrade Ltd, said, “With the globalization of the Indian economy, corporations in India need to have proper risk management systems in place. Through this relationship with SunGard, SMC would be in a position to help its clients to effectively manage price risk volatilities in the foreign exchange and commodities space.”

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Mr. Ajay Garg, director, SMC Global Securities, said, “SunGard’s Kiodex Risk Workbench and Kiodex Global Market Data will help us streamline deal entry, capture the dynamics of the commodity markets, and give us the ability to view risk from multiple perspectives so we can focus on assisting our clients with their risk management needs.”

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Kirk Howell, chief operating officer, SunGard’s Kiodex business unit, said, “India is a rapidly growing commodities market. SMC’s selection of Kiodex extends our existing presence in India to the brokerage community.”

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Weekly Update 12th – 16th July

Stocks in world markets saw huge gains as investors viewed that the recent correction out of fear of double-dip recession in advanced economies has actually overlooked improving outlook for the company’s earnings. Investors sitting on the sidelines bought stocks with the upward revision in earnings estimates for U.S. companies. The gains in markets got a further boost after China said that it will keep a moderately loose policy and South Korea raised interest rates.

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Belief of Asian and Emerging nations will be able to withstand the storm coming from advanced economies rose with the interest rate increases in India, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as the sovereign debt crisis are still posing a serious threat to regions recovery.

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The IMF raised its forecast for global growth to 4.6 percent in 2010, the biggest gain since 2007, compared with an April projection of 4.2 percent reflecting a stronger than expected recovery in first half and at the same time giving warning that financial market turmoil has increased the risks to the recovery. However, IMF has not revised the next year growth projections of 4.3 percent. The IMF urged developed economies governments to commit to implementing “credible” plans to lower their deficits over the medium term, including the adoption of binding, multiyear targets and said that they don’t need to start fiscal tightening before 2011. It said that monetary policy in advanced economies can remain “highly accommodative for the foreseeable future,” because inflation is expected to remain “subdued,” helping mitigate the effects of fiscal consolidation on growth. The growth forecast for emerging markets was raised to 6.8 percent, from 6.3 percent in April.

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The fastest growth rate will be China’s 10.5 percent, followed by India’s 9.4 percent and Brazil’s 7.1 percent, the fund said. On the domestic front with the recent improved outlook in the monsoon situation and expectation of strong double digit gain in Index of Industrial production would keep the markets on a upbeat note. The result season that is going to start in the coming week and guidance by the companies for the rest of the year is further expected to set the momentum of the markets.

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Indian stock markets are in a clear uptrend though other world markets which were in a downtrend took a sharp counter rally from lower levels. We will have to wait and watch whether the rally which has started in other markets can sustain or not..

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Nifty has support between 5250-5200 levels and Sensex between 17500-17300 levels.

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Volatility is spreading in entire commodity complex and thus investors are keeping a tight vigil on relative changes to find the best value. Fundamentals of Asian countries are still constructive but it is Euro zone which is still giving red signals. For the time being, commodities should move in a range. Later half of the week is full of event risk as some important data’s from US, UK, Japan etc. can speak about the health of economy, which may provide some much needed direction to the commodities. In NCDEX, volume of July contract is shifting towards August contract, hence some volatility in premium is expected in near term.
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Weekly Update 28th June – 2nd July

China’s central bank move to increase flexibility in yuan against the dollar pushed global markets higher with the onset of the week. The optimism for the demand of commodities rose as the move is expected to increase Chinese consumers demand with the rise in purchasing power. Thereafter, the worrisome news flow from both U.S. & Europe only gave weakness to the markets.

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Disappointing earnings forecast by U.S. companies reignited the growth concerns in the market during the week. Fed policy makers left the overnight interbank lending rate target unchanged in a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Fed echoed that low inflation, stable price expectations and high unemployment “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

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It said the U.S. recovery is progressive but not strengthening and “Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.” Concerns also rose about solvency position of both U.K. and Global banks. Bank of England said that U.K. banks remain “vulnerable” to further writedowns on their assets because of a potential decline in investor appetite for risk. Overall investors are circumspect of the global recovery and are not sure whether the austerity plan by various government will lead to economic prosperity.

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The Indian government now seems to be batting its second innings in power by working on many reforms that were in its agenda for long time. On the recommendations of Kirit Parekh committee, the government decided to go ahead by linking petrol prices to market linked prices & giving Rs. 2/-, Rs. 3/- & Rs. 35/- hike in diesel, kerosine & LPG prices respectively. The long awaited step is expected to cool down the burgeoning under-recoveries of OMC’s & will help consequently in lowering the fiscal deficit. As per our estimates the said increase will accentuate inflation by close to 0.50%. The move that was quite necessary from the long term perspective may put some pressure on the Equity & Bond Markets. As we are already facing high inflation & are on mercy of good monsoon, the step is likely to increase worries. We expect now, with the robust manufacturing activity & clear signs of demand pull inflation the next step may come soon from the monetary body by hiking policy rates. The move may lead to some correction in the capital markets & bond prices may fall.

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Trend of Indian stock markets is up though U.S. and other markets is down which is giving rise to volatility here. Even dollar index is taking some reaction which might give some relief rally to metals in coming week. Nifty has support between 5200- 5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

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Notwithstanding the doubt over the health of world economy, especially U.S. and Europe, commodity is reacting optimistically on every small news and statements.

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CRB index is going through a consolidation phase; any positive news can result in good upside. Two factors; flattish dollar index amid strong Asian economic growth accompanied by commodity demand can keep commodity on stronger side. In past seven months dollar index has rallied around 20%, the move was not showing the inner strength of dollar, rather it was majorly due to European debt crisis and safe haven demand. If we see rangebound to bearish movements in dollar index again it will boost up commodities prices. However, we can see some correction in between, but that should be considered as good buying opportunity.

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Weekly Update 21st – 25th June

Global markets saw synchronized gains of more than two percent this week except China’s Shanghai Composite Index which closed in the negative. The recent measures that were taken in China to cool down the economy like larger down payment for home buyers and increase in reserve requirements for banks seems to have started showing its effects as reflected by the weakening demand for construction metals like Nickel pig iron. Asset price bubble concerns rose after property prices in China rose by 12.4 percent in May.

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China Banking Regulatory Commission said that risks associated with home mortgages are growing and a “chain effect” may reappear in real-estate development loans. The economic restructuring in China has raised the possibility of resurgence in credit risks. The index of leading indicators in US, a gauge of the outlook for growth over the next three to six months, climbed 0.4 percent in May. It is viewed that the largest economy will continue expanding though at a moderate pace in the second half of the year without stoking inflation & creating fewer jobs. This would help the Federal Reserve in continuing with low interest policy for longer time. The European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests came after more than a year when U.S. published the results of stress tests on 19 financial institutions. The details of the tests including whether they include a sovereign debt restructuring is not yet disclosed by the European Union. However the step is welcomed by the investors as it will reveal the soundness of the European financial system.

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Coming back at home, as mentioned last week the possibility of hike in policy rates by RBI is gaining strength after Inflation accelerated to 10.16 percent in May giving concerns of generalized Inflation in the economy. Demand side pressures are quite evident now with the encouraging growth in Industrial production together with healthy growth in Exports and Imports. The European concerns that may have a bearing effect on the India’s trade and temporary liquidity squeeze in the Banking system has so far refrained the Banking regulator to continue its exit from an expansionary policy in a calibrated manner.

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Indian Stock Markets went up sharply last week and are looking much better but the problem it seems is with other world markets. It has to be seen whether the Indian markets are able to pull the other markets up or the weaker markets pull down India. Base metal commodities are not doing well though precious metals are all looking good. It seems volatility is likely to continue in such a scenario.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

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Market players were enthralled with the captivating movements commodities noticed last week. Base metals and energy touched multi months low in the beginning of the week while second half of the week witnessed steep profit booking. Sideways congestion may be witnessed in commodities this week, as investors are endeavoring to figure out the next direction in commodities.

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However, the week is full of event risk and may trigger volatility in between.

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Many meets and high importance economic releases from US, UK and other nations are scheduled this week. Traders may refrain to create large position before FOMC meeting, which is scheduled on Wednesday.

Weekly Update 14th – 18th June

The global Markets reacted in a negative fashion with the onset of the week due to concerns arising from small increase in non-farm payrolls in U.S. & default risk from Hungarian Economy. The investors concerns subsided after Germany factory orders surged for a second consecutive month in April.

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European debt crisis which has pushed down Euro 20 percent against the dollar seems to be helping the industry as the demand for goods from emerging economies like China is encouraging companies to add workers. Bernanke statement that the recovery is moderate-paced in U.S. further helped the market in recouping the losses. Although he said that Unemployment may remain high for some time. He also said that “We have right now a very accommodative, very easy monetary policy”. “We can’t wait until unemployment is where we’d like it to be” or inflation gets “out of control” to tighten credit, giving signals that hike in interest rate may come sooner.

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IMF is of the view that the risk to the growth has risen significantly and policy makers around the globe are left with little or no room to provide support to the growth. China surprised the markets as the economy withstood the European crisis after showing that exports grew close to 50 percent in the month of May from a year earlier and new loans were 630 billion Yuan ($92 billion), beating the expectations.

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In the monetary policy, Bank of England remained committed to the record low interest rates to stave off the threat of contagion from the euro region’s sovereign debt crisis. Coming back home, India’s Index of Industrial Production showed a significant growth of 17.6% compared to a year before. The seventh consecutive double digit growth complemented by double digit growth in capital goods & consumer durables may tempt RBI to raise interest rates with the Inflation hovering close to double digits. High inflation & more likely pick up in credit offtake due to strong Industrial Production activity may induce RBI to give signals to banks to raise the interest rates by making an increase in policy rates.

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Trend of world stock markets is still down though all markets took a sharp counterrally from lower levels. If the rally sustains this week, then we can say that temporarily they have made a bottom. But the fear of Euro zone would still linger on in the back of our mind. Nifty faces resistance between 5150-5180 levels and Sensex between 17200-17400 levels

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At present there are lots of opportunities for traders to take advantage of volatility in the commodity prices, but this is also the fact that money may not be consistently made on only one side. Last week, we saw a smart recovery in metals and energy complex while bullions fell. However, the movement was not so confident that we can say that downside is overdone and now we can see rally from the current levels. However, one can expect a gradual recovery in base metals prices. In bullions, rally may get tired but buying is still intact and any bad news can stimulate buying with limited upside. If positive data comes further as last week then base metals may see further recovery and vice a versa.

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ECBs and FCCBs Dropped 6% in Dec 2009 !

external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) have dropped 6% in December 2009

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Total approvals received by Indian companies to raise capital by way of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) and foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) have dropped 6% in December 2009 to $1.56 billion as against $1.66 billion in December 2008.

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This is as per the data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

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Total approvals received by Indian companies to raise capital by ECBs and FCCBs stood at $2.35 billion in November 2009.

There were about 68 deals in December 2009, out of which three deals were by way of FCCBs.

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Daimler India Commercial Vehicles Pvt Ltd raised $402 million by way of ECBs for new projects for a maturity period of eight years and 11 months.

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“The ECB market is definitely looking bullish for 2010, however the robustness will not be the way it was in 2007.

Indian banks are also not lending to the corporates here.

Hence, there will be appetite for foreign funds. However, there is a challenge on the forex fluctuation risk as well,” noted Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head with SMC Capital.

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According to market analysts, more Indian companies are going to take the ECB route to raise funds, with the interest rates heading northwards in India.

Currently there is also more demand for short-term funds.

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Banks May Not Up Interest Rates For Next Six Months

Banks May Not Up Interest Rates For Next Six Months

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New Year has brought a good news for the Corporate India.

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SBI Bank chairman has indicated that there will be no increase in interest rates for next six months despite inflationary pressure.

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As inflation is rising, there was speculation going around that RBI, (in its review of monetary policy) might take measures to tighten the money supply which would have led to the hardening of interest rates.

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As the global economy is still in the grip of recession, industry players feel that any hike in interest rates will affect the economic recovery in India.

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Banks authorities and market analysts feel that there was surplus liquidity in the system and credit offtake was slowly picking up.

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This situation of liquidity surplus will force banks not to increase interest rates, in current situation.

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Because of this surplus liquidity, banks have cut deposits rates.

But they are not cutting the lending rates due to slow credit offtake, despite the speculation that RBI can increase key rates (repo or reverse repo) to contain inflation.

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In the eight months of the current financial year till December 4, while the deposits with the commercial banks rose by 3,69,535 crore, credit off take was only Rs 1,44,151 crore.

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This forced the banks to park around Rs 100,000 crore with the RBI at reverse repo rate of 3.25%.

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When the interest rate condition was benign, Banks had cut their lending rates, particularly home loan rate.

This had helped reviving real estate market. The buyers started coming back and cement and steel sectors also started improving.

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The recession did not hit India the way it had affected European countries last year.

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There was only a slowdown in the growth rate which came down to 7% from 9%.

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Market experts believe that withdrawal of stimulus package by the government should not be done in the prevailing situation, but should be phased out in staggered manner.

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Food Inflation at 17.5%, Households Pay Price

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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Food inflation at 17.5%, households pay price

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Food inflation at 17.5%, households pay price:

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The government on Thursday said that the average wholesale price of food items had increased by a whopping 17.5% in the past one year.

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The figure was 15.6% a week ago.

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RBI to shift to a tighter money policy,which in turn would lead to a rise in interest rates.

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The Centre has blamed this year’s poor monsoon for high food prices.

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It also put the onus on state governments to control prices through better management of food supply through ration shops.

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In Other major Commodities Updates, we bring you the news of Govt opting for transgenic tech to boost pulses production and Natural rubber prices going double in a year.

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Govt looks to transgenic tech to boost pulses production:

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The Union government is drawing up a comprehensive programme to introduce transgenic technology to improve the productivity of pulses.

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Bt refers to a gene sourced from a soil bacterium that is transferred to plants and acts as an insecticide.

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The Bt gene activates a toxin that kills a class of pests largely responsible for damaging plants and, thus, denting yields.

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They are genetically low yielding and less responsive to inputs compared with other cereals and oil seeds.

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Not only are they more prone to pests and diseases, hybrids and genetically modified varieties are not available to enhance productivity.

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The agriculture department has said it plans to increase pulse production by 2 mt and acreage by 4 million ha by 2012.

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Natural rubber prices double in a year:

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The natural rubber (NR) prices have almost doubled in a year.

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The benchmark grade RSS-4 variety was quoted at Rs 128 a kg on Thursday compared with Rs 65 a kg on same day last year.

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The rubber market is now poised to break all records despite good production this season.

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The local market follows its global peers resulting in a sharp increase in the prices in the futures trading.

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According to Rubber Board estimates, production in November increased to 103,000 tonnes compared with 95,550 tonnes in the same month last year.

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Production is expected to be at its peak in this month due to the winter season and supply is expected to improve further.

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The board estimates also revealed that the total stock in the country increased to 247,000 tonnes.

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This is due to the sharp increase in imports and a drop in exports during April-November.

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Note : For More Latest Industry, Stock Market and Economy News and Updates, please Click Here

Points to Remember while Selling Stocks – Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, “Points to Remember while Selling Stocks Part 1”.

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Points to Remember while Selling Stocks

Points to Remember while Selling Stocks

In previous Blog we had touched upon few points related to selling stock tips.

In this blog lets get to know more of valuable points in this regard.:)

Major points when to sell your stocks ( starting from 4th..three already being discussed in Blog 1)

4. Stock is Over Valued:

During bull market, high quality stocks appreciate value.

But more importantly, with so much hype around the stock, they are often set up for a fall.

Therefore, investor may use the strategy of selling them first and buy at lower price.

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5. Need Some Cash-

Certain unexpected circumstances may affect the time when to sell stock.

It is not wrong to sell stock to solve your financial emergency, especially the underperforming one.

However, it is advisable to have some emergency cash funds.

After all, basic investing rules is to start investing if you have enough money.

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6. A Change in Monetary Policy-

The Central Bank, RBI changes monetary policy if it perceives that inflation is heating up.

By raising interest rates, it contracts the money supply and slows down the financial system.

It is generally seen that stocks normally react negatively against the action, and some time markets become more volatile.

If you are not happy with this type of risk then you should move a portion of your portfolio into stocks that will not be as affected with such changes.

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7. A Company Suddenly Cuts Dividends or Lower Income Estimates-

This event should be investigated carefully before making any judgment to sell.

For good reason, the board of directors might want to retain more of their earnings for internal growth, rather than paying them out in dividends.

Sell a company’s stock if the performance is down.

Investors must never sell the stock of a fine company if its price goes either ways significantly – up or down.

Falling earnings margins and slowing earnings must be treated as a warning signal.

Lastly, I would like to say that always do your homework (Research) well while selling a company’s stock; you can use either the top-down approach or the bottom-up approach.

Markets are often full of rumors. You cannot make money in the market by acting on market rumors.

Always listen to the stories, but remember you should do your own research–and do it thoroughly.

Make your buy or sell decision based on your analysis of the company, not on what others tell you to do.

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Note : For More Finance Gyan, Latest Industry, Stock Market, Economy News and Updates, please click here

Global Slowdown Caused Loss of Rs.5k Crores to Air India in 2008-09

Global slowdown causes 5k crores loss to Air India

Global slowdown causes 5k crores loss to Air India

Air India stated that it incurred a loss of Rs 5,548 crore in the fiscal year 2008-09 while the Air India board said the losses were due to global slowdown which resulted in fewer passengers travelling and lower load factor.

However, the loss comes when IATA forecast had predicted that the losses in the aviation industry for the year 2008 would be around $16.8 billion, followed by a loss of $11 billion for the year 2009, due to weak revenue environment and increase in operating costs.

Meanwhile, in sync with the market trend, its total revenue declined from Rs 15,252 crore in 2007-08 to Rs 13,479 crore in 2008-09 while its passenger load factor declined from 63.8% in 2007-08 to 59.5% in 2008-09.

Similarly, the number of passengers travelling on Air India flights declined from 13.21 million in 2007-08 to 10.36 million in 2008-09.

On the other hand, the other major factors contributing to Air India”s losses are hike in aviation turbine fuel (ATF), rise in depreciation costs due to induction of new fleet and interest rates on aircraft loans and borrowings.

Air India has been spending around 10% of the airline”s total salary bill to pay its team of over 160 foreign pilots and hiring firms while NACIL paid Rs 93.29 crore towards salaries and expenses to the agencies providing expatriate pilots to Air India and Air India Express last fiscal.

Further, out of this, Air India paid Rs 46.63 crore while its budget arm Air India Express spent Rs 46.66 crore on the expat pilots during the same period whereas there are 163 expatriate pilots in Air India, besides 1,253 Indian pilots and about 200 trainees.