Posts Tagged ‘infrastructure’

STEEL … “ECONOMIC POINTER TO GLOBAL RECOVERY”

Steel, the backbone of infrastructure, has shown wild swings in its prices globally. Steel long prices in NCDEX have shown volatile movement from  January’10 till April’10 this year as prices which were trading around Rs 29000 per tonnes in January’10 plunged below Rs 24000 per tonnes in mid February’10 but it again jumped above Rs 29000 in the beginning of April and again melted nearly to Rs 25000 per tonnes tracking jittery stock market and European debt crises. Greek financial crisis is likely to impact the global economy and industry in Europe thereby denting the demand in this favorite destination of steel flat products.

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On the domestic front due to recovery in automobile, consumer goods and infrastructure sector finished steel registered a growth of 9.2% in March 2010 as against a negative result of 1.8% in March last year. The rise in input costs (iron ore prices shooting up by over 90% and coking coal prices rising by around 55%) coupled with steady demand is the prime reason for the prices recovery. But the rise in steel products prices, especially flat products is bound to affect the prices of the end user industries like automobiles, air conditioners, refrigerators and so on, leading to further inflation in India.

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The basic raw material of steel, the coking coal, has acute shortage of premium quality and the demand is mostly met through imports in India. Generally, India exports iron ore mainly to China but in recent days it has been seen that India is importing iron ore and the demand for Iron ore is increasing here. The share of total Chinese iron ore imports has decreased, from 22.92% in 2006, 20.73% in 2007, 20.51% in 2008, to 17.71% in 2009. Going forward, the increasing demand for iron ore in India will stimulate the Indian government and enterprises to invest in the steel industry.

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According to Indian Steel Minister Virbhadra Singh “Government is aiming to achieve a 120 to 125 million tonnes of steel production in the country by 2011-2012 with major chunk being provided by the public sector” India is both importer and exporter of steel. During the month of January and February 2010, India imported 510,000 mt of steel products from China, up 351.57 percent year on year basis. In the years 2006 to 2009, China imported 74.78 million mt, 79.53 million mt, 91.04 million mt and 107 million mt from India, marking respective increases of 9.08%, 6.36%, 14.47% and 18.08% respectively..

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Outlook: According to World Steel Association the apparent steel use will increase by 10.7% to 1,241 mmt in 2010 after contracting by -6.7% in 2009. This represents an improved figure over the Autumn 2009 forecast for both 2009 and 2010. With these projections, world steel demand in 2010 will exceed pre-crisis levels of 2007. In 2011, it is forecasted that world steel demand will grow by 5.3% to reach a historical high of 1,306 mmt. The resilience of the emerging economies, especially China, has been the critical factor enabling the earlier than expected recovery of world steel demand.

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The outlook of the global steel industry in 2010 looks positive based on the below written reasons:

First, Chinese steel production and demand are likely to continue their relentless rise. Government stimulus packages from China to increase consumer demand for cars and home appliances have supported the demand. Perhaps, more importantly, the state is funding massive construction in the West of the country and immense infrastructure projects for rail, road and bridges in the East. This could lift steel output to above 600 million tonnes in 2010.

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Second, Indian steel manufacturing will reach an “all time” high this year, after another peak outturn in the previous twelve months period. New record steel production rates are also likely to be set in several other countries, including, Turkey and several Middle Eastern countries.

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Most of the steel boom will come from the developing nations of the World. However, manufacturing activity in many of the industrialized countries is starting to improve. This will add to the rise in steel production this year.

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According to world steel association “Global steel output in 2010 is forecast at 1,350 million tonnes. This represents an 11.1 percent increase on the anticipated 2009 outturn, which in turn, will be 8.4 percent below the figure recorded in the previous twelve months”.

According to industry and government officials at the OECD’s Steel Committee, the global steel industry is recovering faster than expected from the recession but the strength and timing of the upturn varies across regions and further improvements are expected in the short term although it may take years for some parts of the sector to fully recover.

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Finally steel long in NCDEX may remain sideways in near term considering the jittery situation in euro zone and tumbling stock markets. But it is expected to show recovery faster than expected as seen in recent past and the prices can scale higher towards Rs 28000 in third quarter of this year after taking support at Rs 22000- 23000 per tonnes.

STEEL…….. INDICATOR OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Due to most crucial necessity of steel in infrastructural and overall economic development, steel industry is often considered as an economic indicator of any country’s development. Steel seems to be heading for consolidation in the coming years as the global economic recovery is gaining momentum. In fact, China and India have reported huge rise in demand for steel with construction and auto sectors growing at a higher speed.

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Steel is not a single product. It is an alloy consisting mostly of iron, with a carbon content between 0.2% and 2.1% by weight, depending on the grade. There are currently more than 3,500 different grades of steel with many different physical, chemical, environmental properties. If the Eiffel Tower were to be rebuilt today the engineers would only need one-third of the amount of steel.

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Carbon Steel, Coated Steel (Galvanized & Color coated), billet, Electric Sheets, Flat Steel Products, Long Steel Products, slabs, Flat steel coil products(Strip) are the some of the finished steel.

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INDIAN SCENARIO

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According to the annual report 2009-10 by the Ministry of Steel, India is the fifth largest producer of steel in the world and it will become the world’s second-largest steel producer by 2012, more than doubling its capacity to 124 million tonnes (MT).

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Steel production rose 4.2 per cent to reach 60 MT in 2009-2010 and has an installed capacity of 72.76 million tones. According to the Ministry of Steel, Steel production in the 2010/11 (April-March) fiscal year is likely to be 65 million tones.

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The growth in steel consumption in any country is a positive sign for economic growth of that country. Due to improved demand from sectors like automobile, infrastructure and housing, India’s steel consumption rose 9.6 per cent to 4.14 million tonnes (MT) in April 2010. Exports continued to slide and dropped 34.8 per cent to 1.84 lakh tonnes in April, revealing the slow pace of recovery in main steel import destination–the US and the European markets.

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Some important facts

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?The domestic steel sector has attracted an investment of about US$ 238 billion.
This consists of nearly 222 MoU’s signed between the investors and state governments of Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and West Bengal.

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?Due to some government initiative in the budget and higher spending on infrastructure development, steel demand is likely to increase by 10 percent inthe fiscal year to March 2011. In the Union Budget 2010-11, India’s Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee proposed to invest 1.73 trillion rupees on infrastructure sector, which will further promote the steel industry.

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Global Production and Consumption

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World production of crude steel in March 2010 rose by 31% to 120.3 million tonnes, the highest monthly total since May 2008. The total production in January to March is 342.4 million tonnes, 29% higher than the same period in 2009. This figures shows clearly that most countries are on path of rapid recovery from the recession. From January to March Chinese steel production increased by 24.5% to 158 million tonnes, Japan’s production jumped by 51% and South Korea increased by 29% .

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Current Scenario

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Steel makers in the country had increased their prices for the third time this year in April due to spiralling iron ore and coking coal prices. Iron ore prices in 2010 had almost doubled from last year’s levels to $120-160 a tonne. But the industry is hopeful that curbing exports would help reduce iron ore prices.

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Prices downgraded by around 13% in the month of April 2010, after hovering in broad range of Rs.25,130-30,150 per tonne. This is as compared to 2.06% gains in same month last year. Moreover, prices have fallen by around 4.50 percent since the year start SAIL had announced a price cut of Rs2,000 per tonne for its long products effective from 1st May 2010. However, this is not an indication of any future fall in steel prices. There is consumer resistance to further price increase but ultimately the pattern of global prices is still followed here and so we will also depend on the same.

Weeekly Update 17th – 21st May

Global markets saw a sigh of relief with the start of new week after the European Union unveiled a 750 billion-euro ($949 billion) financial assistance program backed by European Central Bank bond purchases aimed to prevent a broader sovereign-debt crisis in the region. But thereafter could not build onto the gains as it was felt that the rescue plan may not help in averting a slowdown in the region. The concerns from developed nations to developing nations like china continued to cast a dark shadow on the investors mind. Chinese market went into a bear market on the concerns that the government will make borrowing dearer to check spiraling inflation & growth.

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With the fallout of European crisis it is widely believed that the central banks may not adopt tighter monetary policies with the fragile recovery. Chief of Indian central bank said that he plans to raise interest rates in a calibrated way given the risks to global growth. The belief led to a rally in the interest rate sensitive’s like Realty, auto & consumer durables in the domestic markets.

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Whereas the growth concerns continued to punish sectors like metal & oil.

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However safe heavens like gold & bond markets continued to see money coming in with investors seeking for safe shelters.

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Continued double digit growth i.e. 13.5% in march in Industrial production for the sixth consecutive month has mirrored one clear thing that India per se is on strong footing if compared to any part of world. Planning commission chief Montek singh ahluwalia saying that government is working out a 500 billion rupee fund to improve the infrastructure, is making our belief strong that infrastructure sector will see a robust growth in India over the long period.

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Trend of all world stock markets is still down and even a strong rally of Monday could not bring much relief as the markets gave up the rally in later part of the week on the back of weaking Euro and uncertainity in Europe. Neither the base metal commodities nor Crude is able to rally which shows lack of strength in the rally in stock markets. Nifty faces resistance between 5100-5200 levels and Sensex between 17000-17500 levels.

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The underlying unease over health of EU economy has room for more buying in bullions. At the same time bullions are paying no attention to dollar index the way they used to in general. Inflation in China, which is on 18 months highs, is indicating further monetary tightening, which may weigh on commodity prices in future. Overall trend of base metals and energy may remain weak, however, lower level buying cannot be denied in between. Important data from Japanese economy front may also give further direction to base metals and energy. On agro commodities front, they may remain volatile before expiry.

INDIAN ECONOMY – GAINING STRENGTH Final Part :0

Thank you friends for viewing the first part. Now i am posting the final part here enjoy:)

4.Fresh Investments – Infrastructure being one of the key thrust areas on government agenda would continue to see large investments coming in going ahead. Even the corporate are expected to continue with the capacity additions in the light of huge anticipated demand.

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After the sharpest decline in more than 70 years, world trade is set to rebound in 2010 by growing at 9.5%, according to WTO. Exports from developed economies are expected to increase by 7.5% in volume terms over the course of the year while shipments from the rest of the world (including developing economies and the Commonwealth of independent States) should rise by around 11% as the world emerges from recession. This strong expansion will help recover some, but by no means all, of the ground lost in 2009 when the global economic crisis sparked a 12.2% contraction in the volume of global trade – the largest such decline since world war II . Should trade continue to expand at its current pace, the economists predict, it would not take much of the time to surpass the peak level of 2008 in terms of the volume growth.

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Coming back to India front, the continued demand revival in major markets such as the US and European Union, led exports to remain in the positive territory for the fourth consecutive month with shipments in February growing by 34.8% to $16.09 billion from $11.94 billion during February 2009. India’s Imports too saw a growth of 66.4% to $25.05 billion from $15.06 billion in the corresponding period. Cumulative value of imports for the period April, 2009- February, 2010 showed a degrowth of 13.5% to $248.04 billion from $287.09 billion in the corresponding period as a result of both lower international crude oil prices and slowdown in domestic economic activity.

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India’s two-way trade (merchandize exports plus imports), as proportion of GDP is close to 35%. Now, with the expected improvement in the global trade it would further give a fillip to the economic growth.

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The services sector contributes around 65% to GDP. The lead indicators of service sector activity show that, services such as tourist arrivals, cargo handled by seaports and airports, and passengers handled by international terminals which are dependent on external demand are showing recovery with the improvement in global climate. However, services dependent on domestic demand have exhibited a robust and steady growth during 2009-2010, so far.

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In sum, the expected normal monsoon, buoyancy in industrial production & services suggests continuation of growth momentum. With the fiscal deficit being addressed by the government with large focus on infrastructure spending, improvement in corporate sentiments with respect to capital spending & RBI taking steps to withdraw monetary accommodations in a calibrated way is expected to take economic growth back to 9% levels.

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Stay tuned for more update like this :)

Equity News Round UP

Economy

•The annual rate of inflation based on the wholesale price index of food articles shot up to 17.70 per cent during the week ended 27 March 2010 from 16.35 per cent during the previous week.

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•India’s automobile industry reported a 26.41 per cent growth in sales in 2009-10 riding on the government’s stimulus packages that perked demand, making it the second fastest growing market in the world after China.

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•India’s first-ever auction of spectrum for third generation (3G) telephony services began on a cautious note. For a pan-India licence, the highest offer was Rs 3,919 crore on the first day, just 12 per cent higher than the base price of Rs 3,500 crore. There are six companies in the race for a pan- India licence, which spans 22 circles. These are Bharti Airtel, Vodafone Essar, Reliance Communications, Idea Cellular, Tata Teleservices and Aircel.

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Capital Goods

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•Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited is setting up a centre of excellence for nanotechnology with an investment of Rs 8.27 crore to explore applications in power systems and products relevant to the company.

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•Suzlon Energy said its subsidiary REpower Systems AG has bagged a contract from an Italian company for supplying 18 wind turbines. RE power has concluded a contract for the supply of 18 wind turbines to Daunia Savignano, a subsidiary of Italian Tozzi Group.

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•Elecon Engineering Company has bagged an order worth Rs 49.90 crore from Sical Logistics for material handling equipment. The scope of the contract includes design, engineering and commissioning of material handling equipments for New Mangalore Iron Ore Terminal.

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•BGR Energy Systems has entered into an agreement with the Orissa government for setting up a 1,320-MW power project at an investment of Rs 6,287 crore. The company has signed a MoU with Orissa government for setting up a 1,320 MW independent power producer at Bhapur in Nayagarh district of the state at an investment of about Rs 6,287 crore.

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Pharmaceutical

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•Aurobindo Pharma announced that it has received final approval for Venlafaxine Hydrochloride Tablets 25 mg, 37.5 mg, 50 mg, 75 mg and 100 mg from the US Food & Drug Administration (USFDA).

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•Cipla Limited, among the largest pharmaceutical companies in the country, is understood to be closing in on a strategic investment in Bangalore-based Stempeutics Research, a stem cell company developing stem cell-based medicinal products. Stem cells are used to replace or initiate the production of other cells that are damaged or missing.

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•Biocon has fully acquired the joint venture Biocon Biopharmaceuticals from its Cuban partner CIMAB. Under the business restructuring plan, Biocon will pick up CIMAB’s 49% stake and will make Biocon Biopharmaceuticals (BBPL) a wholly owned subsidiary of Biocon.

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Media & Entertainment

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•PVR Ltd, a retail entertainment company, has earmarked around Rs 120 crore for setting up 60 multiplex screens across the country. Of this, 14 are already operational and the remaining will be opened by the end of this fiscal.

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Realty & Construction

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•IVR Prime Urban Developers has raised Rs 63 crore by selling land near Pune and Chennai. The company has sold 87.52 acres of land near Loanavala and 28 acres of land near Chennai.

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Oil & Gas

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•Reliance Industries (RIL) has announced that its subsidiary, Reliance Marcellus LLC has executed definitive agreements to enter into a joint venture with United Sates based Atlas Energy, Inc, of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania under which Reliance will acquire a 40% interest in Atlas’ Core Marcellus Shale acreage position.

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•Aban Offshore has bagged a contract valued at $159 million (about Rs 716 crore) from Brunel Shell Petroleum Sendirian Berhad for the deployment of the jack-up rigs.

NEWS ROUND UP 29th March – 02nd April

Economy

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·India’s annual food price index stood at 16.22% as on week ended March 13, slower than the 16.30% growth recorded last week. A year ago, food prices were up 7.46%. At the same time, primary articles inflation rose to 13.88% from 4.91% last year, while fuel, power, light & lubricants prices climbed to 12.68%.

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Power

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·NTPC, the state owned power generator, has evinced interest to set up solar and wind projects in Orissa with aggregate generation capacity of 500 Mw.

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The company has sent a draft MoU for approval of the Orissa government in this regard.

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·GMR Energy will soon raise over Rs 1,600 crore from a group of private equity players led by Singapore-based Temasek Holdings and banks to fund its expansion. The company is a subsidiary of the G M Rao-led GMR Infrastructure that has interests in highways, airports, agri-business and urban infrastructure.

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Oil & Gas

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·ONGC has approved investing Rs 3,240 crore ($712 million) for the first phase development of three marginal fields located in Mumbai offshore on the western coast.

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Capital Goods

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·L&T has been awarded a contract by the Ministry of Defense for the design and construction of 36 high speed interceptor boats for the Indian Coast Guard. The contract is valued at Rs 977 crore. The design is being carried out in house by the Company and its ship design center, that is a part of the Company’s Heavy Engineering division. The boats are planned to be constructed at the Company’s existing shipyard at Hazira and at its new shipyard coming up at Katupalli near Ennore.

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·L&T bagged six orders worth Rs 1,181 crore for construction of power transmission line and sub-station works. Three of these six orders worth Rs 741 crore have been secured from the Gulf markets and the other orders worth Rs 440 crore are for domestic projects. These orders will be executed by electrical and gulf projects operating company, a part of L&T’s construction division.

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Automobile

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·Tata Motors, India’s largest vehicle manufacturer by revenue, is selling a third of its stake in the construction equipment-making subsidiary, Telcon, to its joint venture partner, Hitachi, for Rs 1,000 crore.

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·Tata Motors had signed an agreement with the Myanmarese government for setting up a heavy truck plant in the South-East Asian nation, with an installed capacity of up to 5,000 units annually.

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·TVS Motor Company has announced the launch of its new model TVS Jive, India’s first auto-clutch motorcycle, in Chandigarh. With this launch, the company expects that it sales in Punjab will grow significantly from 2,000 motorcycles to 3,600 motorcycles per month.

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Realty/ Construction

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·Patel Engineering has been awarded the contract to develop the largest waterfront project in the southern hemisphere. The project, an integrated township in Port Louis, the capital of Mauritius, is valued at $1 billion.

Spread over more than 24 hectares, the project involves residential, commercial, entertainment and real estate.

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·Punj Lloyd plans to sell its 19.4 per cent stake in Pipavav Shipyard to co-promoter Skil Infrastructure through an inter se promoter transfer. The stake is valued at Rs 825 crore at the company’s current market
capitalisation of Rs 4,251 crore. The Nikhil Gandhi-promoted Skil Infrastructure has an 18.27 per cent stake in Pipavav Shipyard.

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Telecommunication

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·Kuwait-based Zain Telecom’s board cleared Bharti Airtel’s proposal to buy its African assets for $10.7 billion (around Rs 48,600 crore), marking the Indian company’s first successful attempt to acquire operations in Africa after two failures.

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Cement

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·Shree Cement has got the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission’s (CERC) approval to start inter-state trading business in power it produces at its merchant plant. The company has 260 MW installed captive power generation capacity and is in the process of putting up additional 300 MW merchant capacity, which is set to go on stream in a few days.

Points Discussed in Budget :)

  • Excise duty on silver rose to 10%
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  • Surcharge on domestic cos reduced to 7.5% from 10%..
  • Excise duty on oil rose to 10%.
  • Fiscal deficit will be at 5.5% in 10-11, at 4.8% in 11-12 and 4.1% in 12-13
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  • Revised income tax slabs 🙂
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  • Net market borrowing for 2010-11 at Rs 3, 45,010..
  • Extended 1% interest subsidy scheme for affordable housing.
  • Rs 5400 cr of funds allocated for urban development..
  • Defense allocation rose to Rs 147344 cr.
  • Rs 48000 cr allocated for Bharat Nirman.
  • Farmer loans extended for 6 months to June 30th 2011.
  • Allocated Rs1.73 lakh cr for infrastructure..
  • Agriculture credit flow targets at Rs. 375000cr.
  • FDI worth $20.9 bn in April to Dec 2009.
  • Proposed Rs 16500 cr for PSU banks.
  • Challenge for a 9% growth, need to review stimulus.
  • Stay Tuned for More updates 🙂

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