Posts Tagged ‘Inflation’

Weekly Update 18th – 22nd October 2010

Most of the world markets rallied in the week gone by on the buzz of further quantitative easing by U.S. Without giving details about the strategies on how the central bank will act its Nov. 2-3 meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke said additional monetary stimulus may be warranted because inflation is too low and unemployment is too high.

.

Fed is considering ways for raising inflation expectations to encourage people to believe that prices will start rising at a faster pace so that they would spend more of their money now. Retail sales in U.S.climbed more than forecast as purchases rose 0.6 percent following a 0.7 percent gain in August and manufacturing in the New York region expanded in October at a faster pace than anticipated.

.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index saw gains of 8.5 percent on the anticipation that China’s banks show strong earnings growth this quarter as the lending has beaten the forecast. Moreover the strong exports growth of 25.1 percent in September mirrors the strong underlying economic momentum. The country’s foreign-exchange reserves, the world’s largest, surged by a record to $2.65 trillion at the end of September.

.


India’s wholesale price index rose to rose 8.62 percent in September from a year earlier after an 8.5 percent gain in August. Manufactured product inflation and Food price inflation rose by 0.3 percent and 1.6 percent respectively in September fromthe previous month. RBI Chief Subbarao said that inflation in India is being “quite stubborn,” a sign that controlling prices remains the central bank’s priority.

.

Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn signaled the central bank may intervene in the currency markets to shield exporters from the strengthening rupee. The capital account showed a surplus of $17.5 billion in the quarter to June 30, compared with a record shortfall of $13.7 billion in its current account.

.

Foreign investors have so far poured approximately $23 billion in stocks and 10 billion indebt this year. Industrial production expanded by 5.6 percent in August after seeingan expansion of 15.2 percent in July.Going next week the main attraction for retail investors would be the primary market with Mega IPO of Coal India slated to open on 18th October. As Infosys has already rung the bell with positive surprise in terms of earning growth, the investors would now look forward to numbers of companies like L&T, HDFC, Bajaj Auto, etc that are scheduled to announce numbers next week.

.

Nifty has support between5870-5950 and Sensex between 19200-19640 levels.With expecting second round of monetary easing, investors dumped dollar and endowed other investment avenues. Commodities extended a rally to the highest intwo years and CRB closed near the mark of 300. The dollar fell to its lowest in 10 months against a basket of currencies and breached the mark of 77. Five week continuous downfall enhanced metals and agricultural commodities.

.

Gold gave heroic performance and made another life time high. It rose more than 25% in 2010.Silver is also trading near 30 year high. However, being prudent investors, one should book profit in gold and silver, considering safe trading. Base metals are expected to trade in a range. Crude oil should trade in range $80-85 in short run on mixed fundamental. OPEC has decided to keep the production quota unchanged in last meeting. Agro commodities should trade with high volatility ahead of expiry of October contract.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com,
http://www.smctradeonline.comhttp://www.smcwealth.com

.

Share/Bookmark


Weekly Update 11th – 15th October 2010

Beside Indian market all global markets closed in green in the week gone by on the expectation of policy easing by developed nations. Central banks resorting to purchase of debt and currency intervention in developedeconomies is flooding markets with liquidity and funds are flowing to Asia for higherreturns. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled that Fed may announce thepurchase of more Treasuries as soon as their next policy meeting in November in aneffort to boost growth and reduce an unemployment rate.

.

The Bank of Japan said this week it will establish a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy government bondsand other assets. It also cut its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first timesince 2008, dropping it to a range of zero to 0.1 percent. Joining the league European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet too said that ECB policymakers are in the “same mood” as a month ago and for now remain committed tophasing out their unlimited lending program.With the economic activity gaining pace, it is believed that Indian market wouldcontinue to see overseas buying. Moreover Indian government plans to raise $8.9billion in the year ending March 31 selling state assets including Coal India, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. thereby giving more investment opportunities to investors.

.

While many developed nations are intervening in the currency markets in order tostem the appreciation in the currency, Indian Finance minister is of the opinion thatthe situation has not gone to an extent at which there is a need to restrict portfolio or foreign direct investment. As a matter of fact Indian rupee gained 4.5 percent inSeptember. Finance Minister said “We should try to engage the countries innegotiations and build up a consensus through which the matter can be resolved andit cannot be resolved through confrontation.” The International Monetary Fundraised its 2010 economic growth forecast for India to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent,citing strengthening local consumer demand.

.

Since we have already seen a huge run up in the broader indices meaning moreparticipation coming from large cap stocks so now going forward we may expectmore activity in mid and small cap stocks. The result season is starting in the comingweek and corporate would give their guidance for the rest of the year which wouldset the future undertone of the markets. Nifty has support between 5950-5870 and Sensex between 19640-19200 levels.What a stunning rally gold has enjoyed recently on fear of inflation. It has hit many records in fewer days.

.

Silver was not behind, it made life time high of `34898 on MCX and breached the mark of `35000 in spot market. Talk of quantitative easing by US and rate cut by BoJ are creating anxiety over currency devaluation and long-terminflation is keeping gold and silver on remarkable run up. After witnessing the bigswings of both side, we can say that trend of crude oil is little bit in indecision mode.However, bias should be on upside. Michigan Confidence, CPI and advance retailsales data of US may further provide the direction to metals and energy. Industrialmetals which have made upper trading range last week, are likely to trade up onweakening dollar index.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com,
http://www.smctradeonline.comhttp://www.smcwealth.com

.

Share/Bookmark

 

Weekly Update 28th June – 2nd July

China’s central bank move to increase flexibility in yuan against the dollar pushed global markets higher with the onset of the week. The optimism for the demand of commodities rose as the move is expected to increase Chinese consumers demand with the rise in purchasing power. Thereafter, the worrisome news flow from both U.S. & Europe only gave weakness to the markets.

.

Disappointing earnings forecast by U.S. companies reignited the growth concerns in the market during the week. Fed policy makers left the overnight interbank lending rate target unchanged in a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Fed echoed that low inflation, stable price expectations and high unemployment “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

.

It said the U.S. recovery is progressive but not strengthening and “Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.” Concerns also rose about solvency position of both U.K. and Global banks. Bank of England said that U.K. banks remain “vulnerable” to further writedowns on their assets because of a potential decline in investor appetite for risk. Overall investors are circumspect of the global recovery and are not sure whether the austerity plan by various government will lead to economic prosperity.

.

The Indian government now seems to be batting its second innings in power by working on many reforms that were in its agenda for long time. On the recommendations of Kirit Parekh committee, the government decided to go ahead by linking petrol prices to market linked prices & giving Rs. 2/-, Rs. 3/- & Rs. 35/- hike in diesel, kerosine & LPG prices respectively. The long awaited step is expected to cool down the burgeoning under-recoveries of OMC’s & will help consequently in lowering the fiscal deficit. As per our estimates the said increase will accentuate inflation by close to 0.50%. The move that was quite necessary from the long term perspective may put some pressure on the Equity & Bond Markets. As we are already facing high inflation & are on mercy of good monsoon, the step is likely to increase worries. We expect now, with the robust manufacturing activity & clear signs of demand pull inflation the next step may come soon from the monetary body by hiking policy rates. The move may lead to some correction in the capital markets & bond prices may fall.

.

Trend of Indian stock markets is up though U.S. and other markets is down which is giving rise to volatility here. Even dollar index is taking some reaction which might give some relief rally to metals in coming week. Nifty has support between 5200- 5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

.

Notwithstanding the doubt over the health of world economy, especially U.S. and Europe, commodity is reacting optimistically on every small news and statements.

.

CRB index is going through a consolidation phase; any positive news can result in good upside. Two factors; flattish dollar index amid strong Asian economic growth accompanied by commodity demand can keep commodity on stronger side. In past seven months dollar index has rallied around 20%, the move was not showing the inner strength of dollar, rather it was majorly due to European debt crisis and safe haven demand. If we see rangebound to bearish movements in dollar index again it will boost up commodities prices. However, we can see some correction in between, but that should be considered as good buying opportunity.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com, http://www.smctradeonline.com
,http://www.smcwealth.com

Weekly Update 21st – 25th June

Global markets saw synchronized gains of more than two percent this week except China’s Shanghai Composite Index which closed in the negative. The recent measures that were taken in China to cool down the economy like larger down payment for home buyers and increase in reserve requirements for banks seems to have started showing its effects as reflected by the weakening demand for construction metals like Nickel pig iron. Asset price bubble concerns rose after property prices in China rose by 12.4 percent in May.

.

.

China Banking Regulatory Commission said that risks associated with home mortgages are growing and a “chain effect” may reappear in real-estate development loans. The economic restructuring in China has raised the possibility of resurgence in credit risks. The index of leading indicators in US, a gauge of the outlook for growth over the next three to six months, climbed 0.4 percent in May. It is viewed that the largest economy will continue expanding though at a moderate pace in the second half of the year without stoking inflation & creating fewer jobs. This would help the Federal Reserve in continuing with low interest policy for longer time. The European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests came after more than a year when U.S. published the results of stress tests on 19 financial institutions. The details of the tests including whether they include a sovereign debt restructuring is not yet disclosed by the European Union. However the step is welcomed by the investors as it will reveal the soundness of the European financial system.

.

.

Coming back at home, as mentioned last week the possibility of hike in policy rates by RBI is gaining strength after Inflation accelerated to 10.16 percent in May giving concerns of generalized Inflation in the economy. Demand side pressures are quite evident now with the encouraging growth in Industrial production together with healthy growth in Exports and Imports. The European concerns that may have a bearing effect on the India’s trade and temporary liquidity squeeze in the Banking system has so far refrained the Banking regulator to continue its exit from an expansionary policy in a calibrated manner.

.

.

Indian Stock Markets went up sharply last week and are looking much better but the problem it seems is with other world markets. It has to be seen whether the Indian markets are able to pull the other markets up or the weaker markets pull down India. Base metal commodities are not doing well though precious metals are all looking good. It seems volatility is likely to continue in such a scenario.

.

.

Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

.

.

Market players were enthralled with the captivating movements commodities noticed last week. Base metals and energy touched multi months low in the beginning of the week while second half of the week witnessed steep profit booking. Sideways congestion may be witnessed in commodities this week, as investors are endeavoring to figure out the next direction in commodities.

.

.

However, the week is full of event risk and may trigger volatility in between.

.

Many meets and high importance economic releases from US, UK and other nations are scheduled this week. Traders may refrain to create large position before FOMC meeting, which is scheduled on Wednesday.

Weekly Update 14th – 18th June

The global Markets reacted in a negative fashion with the onset of the week due to concerns arising from small increase in non-farm payrolls in U.S. & default risk from Hungarian Economy. The investors concerns subsided after Germany factory orders surged for a second consecutive month in April.

.

European debt crisis which has pushed down Euro 20 percent against the dollar seems to be helping the industry as the demand for goods from emerging economies like China is encouraging companies to add workers. Bernanke statement that the recovery is moderate-paced in U.S. further helped the market in recouping the losses. Although he said that Unemployment may remain high for some time. He also said that “We have right now a very accommodative, very easy monetary policy”. “We can’t wait until unemployment is where we’d like it to be” or inflation gets “out of control” to tighten credit, giving signals that hike in interest rate may come sooner.

.

IMF is of the view that the risk to the growth has risen significantly and policy makers around the globe are left with little or no room to provide support to the growth. China surprised the markets as the economy withstood the European crisis after showing that exports grew close to 50 percent in the month of May from a year earlier and new loans were 630 billion Yuan ($92 billion), beating the expectations.

.

In the monetary policy, Bank of England remained committed to the record low interest rates to stave off the threat of contagion from the euro region’s sovereign debt crisis. Coming back home, India’s Index of Industrial Production showed a significant growth of 17.6% compared to a year before. The seventh consecutive double digit growth complemented by double digit growth in capital goods & consumer durables may tempt RBI to raise interest rates with the Inflation hovering close to double digits. High inflation & more likely pick up in credit offtake due to strong Industrial Production activity may induce RBI to give signals to banks to raise the interest rates by making an increase in policy rates.

.

Trend of world stock markets is still down though all markets took a sharp counterrally from lower levels. If the rally sustains this week, then we can say that temporarily they have made a bottom. But the fear of Euro zone would still linger on in the back of our mind. Nifty faces resistance between 5150-5180 levels and Sensex between 17200-17400 levels

.

At present there are lots of opportunities for traders to take advantage of volatility in the commodity prices, but this is also the fact that money may not be consistently made on only one side. Last week, we saw a smart recovery in metals and energy complex while bullions fell. However, the movement was not so confident that we can say that downside is overdone and now we can see rally from the current levels. However, one can expect a gradual recovery in base metals prices. In bullions, rally may get tired but buying is still intact and any bad news can stimulate buying with limited upside. If positive data comes further as last week then base metals may see further recovery and vice a versa.

.

OUR Websites: http://www.smcindiaonline.com ,http://www.smccapitals.com , http://www.smctradeonline.com ,http://www.smcwealth.com

.

Weekly Update 24th – 28th May

Global markets nosedived after German financial regulator introduced a temporary ban on naked short selling and naked credit-default swaps of Euro-area government bonds to provide stability to the financial system from the excessive price movements. The move shattered the confidence among investors that the various efforts like 750 bn euro package to tackle the situation are not enough to stem the crisis.

.

EU countries efforts to cut down on their deficits by reducing spending & increase in taxes may lead to contraction in the region. The situation poses a serious threat to US & World economy as it could lead to slide in world trade & economic growth.

.

According to Emerging Portfolio Fund Research(EPFR), investors withdrew $12 billion from European & US equity funds in the week to May 19. In order to tighten the US finance industry regulation, the senate approved a bill to impose restriction on banks proprietary trading & to create a consumer protection agency having powers to write & enforce rule to ban abusive lending. In another development Fed raised the US growth estimates to a range of3.2% to 3.7% this year & lowered forecast for unemployment & inflation. The European crisis has not only hit hard the equity markets but also commodities as well. With the commodity prices coming down especially oil, it has somewhat reduced the inflationary pressures building up in the economies.

.

RBI deputy governor Subir Gokaran said “cautious pace is the best way to go and that is the stance,” after the Global economy outlook changes in the last six weeks. One the domestic positive development for the Indian Government that happened was 3G auction. The government managed to garner close to Rs. 70,000 crore, double the amount it anticipated in the budget estimates. This extra money is likely to lift the pressure on the market borrowing and will give some extra room to the government  for the developmental purposes. For the time being the markets are expected to remain in pressure & will eye on the monsoon to gauge how Indian economy will behave in the rest of year as agriculture is the mainstay for the overall development.

.

Overall trend of world stock markets is down though in the short term they are oversold and a bounce can be expected in the coming week which would be more of a relief rally. Till the European markets do not stabilize, the recovery might be short lived. One should be cautious in such markets. Nifty faces resistance between 5040-5120 levels and Sensex between 16800-17100 levels.

.

Volatility in the global financial markets is expected to calm down in near term which will lead to some recovery in base metals and crude oil. European Union finance ministers pledged to stiffen sanctions on high-deficit countries and ruled out setting up a mechanism to manage state defaults. Bullions may continue to trade on weaker path as decline in safe haven status can keep the prices pressurized.

.

.

Weakness in local currency has curtailed the volatility in bullions in domestic bourses to greater extent. Key economic releases like US GDP will set the course this week for base metals. Bulls may again take center stage in spices while oilseeds counter may try to find direction taking cues from CBOT and BMD. Wheat and Chana can trade in range with marginal buying.

Weekly Update 26th – 30th April 2010

Domestic markets started the week on a negative note on the back of the Greek debt issues and Goldman Sachs fraud issues, but managed to close in the positive terrain supported by firm US markets in line with less than expected hike in Policy Rates & Cash Reserve Ratio by RBI to tame the inflation; Policy rates and CRR increased by 25 bps each. The food price index rose 17.65% in the 12 months to April 10, marginally higher than an annual rise of 17.22% in the previous week. Moreover IMF announcement of India`s growth at 8.5% for the calendar 2011 boosted the sentiments.

.

.

Additionally, announcement of government recapitalization of PSU banks stimulated banking sector and banking stocks were among the major gainers of the week. Good corporate numbers, expectation of good monsoon together with buying by foreign institutions kept the momentum intact for the rest of the week. Going forward market participants globally would be closely watching G20 finance chiefs plan to withdraw economic stimulus as the recovery strengthens.

.

.

The IMF this week said that rising government debt is one of the biggest threats to the world economy.

.

Forecast of normal monsoon season by Indian Meteorological department may keep the sentiments positive in the coming week but volatility may rise ahead of the expiry. On the global front, the UK’s economy grew at a slower than anticipated pace in the first quarter. In US, sales of new homes surged by 27 percent in March and orders for most durable goods climbed, indicating the U.S. economy is speeding ahead into the second quarter. Greece troubles that kept the markets jittery especially for the payments approaching in the month of May came to an end after it said that it has sought a relief aid from the European Union to save it from a default.

.

.

US stock markets kept the rally intact which held the other world markets and did not let them fall.

.

Shanghai remained under pressure as commodities saw some pressure and profit booking at higher levels. Indian stocks are seeing more strength in cash stocks and banking stocks. Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

.

.

This week is full of event risk, especially from US economy side. Gradually, commodity is retreating from the higher levels but it will be too early to say that it is giving a clear indication for the approaching time. But yes, upside is limited.

.

.

Negative expectation of US GDP figure for the first quarter may hammer the prices. If dollar index trades above the level of 82 then it would keep gold to be in sideways territory. Copper saw three weeks nonstop downside and it is expected to see more downside. Range trading in crude oil is indicating the saturation at the higher levels and market needs big news to see further upside..