Posts Tagged ‘Industry’

Global Market Outlook 2009 and 2010 :)

SMC Market Outlook


With markets giving returns on investment more than 79% in 2009 and showing a strong sign of recovery from mid 2009 on the back of strong domestic demand, policy reforms and stimulus packages, 2009 calendar year emerged as the best year for investors since 2000.


FII’s have once again proved to be the front runners in terms of the inflow, pumping more than Rs 82,000 crore in the Indian market this calendar.


But 2010 promises to be another testing year as fiscal and monetary stimulus in many of the world’s major economies begins to wane.


After being in consolidation for most of the month, in the week gone by the domestic markets suddenly jumped back to life and closed at their highest in 19 months as investors rushed to buy stocks on renewed optimism, after foreign direct investment into the nation jumped 60% in the first eight months of this fiscal year.


The FM`s comments on GDP growth and encouraging cues from global markets also boosted the market.


Both the indices, Sensex and Nifty made a new high for 2009 on the eve of Christmas, rekindling the festive spirit.

Bulls were in a mood of rejoice as Christmas took Nifty to a new high of 5,197.90.

The year ends with more than a spark of hope, and next year seems to be a stable and profitable one.

However, we believe that markets would continue to be volatile and hence it is important to manage risk in the coming year too.


For the forthcoming week, markets may remain volatile as traders will roll their positions in the derivative segment from December 2009 series to January 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near month December 2009 contracts on Thursday, 31 December 2009.


On the flip side higher advance tax figures by India Inc which suggests better Q3 December 2009 results, may support the market.


Corporate advance tax payments for the quarter were up 44% to Rs 48,300 crore against a 3.7% decline in April-June quarter and a 14.7% increase in July-September quarter.


The global developments also need to be seen for any further directions.

Furthermore, food price index data for the year to 19 December 2009 will be closely watched which is going to release on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

The high food price inflation is a major worry for the policymakers as they contemplate a right approach to tame hike in inflation which seems to be more of a supply side issue.


The next quarterly review of monetary policy is scheduled on 29 January 2010 which may also give some direction to the markets.


On the global economic front, the US economy grew at a revised annual growth rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, much slower than initially projected.


Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in October, for the first time in four months in November, an indication job growth may not be strong enough to support the economy’s recovery from its deepest postwar recession.


The world stock markets are not ready to react on the downside and after every consolidation they are moving up only.

4960 on nifty is strong support as was mentioned in last week magazine and the nifty touched there and moved up sharply.

Even the base metals and stocks are not reacting to the strong dollar.

Till the trend of stock markets is up, one should be playing from the long side of it.

Nifty has support between 5050-4970 and Sensex between 17100-16700 levels.


New Year celebration may result in thin trading this week.It may impact domestic bourses as well.

Regarding outlook, dollar index will give next direction to precious metals. If it notices a pause in its rally then precious metals may trade in a range or vice a versa.

Base metals will remain volatile.

Gap between lead and zinc should shrink gradually.

Fresh buying in steel may keep nickel at higher side.

If US crude and other inventories continue to decline then fresh buying will stimulate in crude oil.

However, it already saw spiky moves hence upside is limited.


Points to Remember while Selling Stocks – Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on โ€œSMC Gyan Seriesโ€. ๐Ÿ™‚

Points to remember while selling stock

Points to remember while selling stock


Buying a stock is simple, but Selling is actually harder as it requires regulation, understandable thoughts, and a tight rein on oneโ€™s emotions.

The ongoing optimism, slow economic revival, positive signs on the global front and high expectations from the stable government at home have forced bulls to give up their lethargic activities and to march northward.

Many investors who had seen the value of their stocks hit rock bottom and are now facing dilemma whether to sell or should they hold on? :O

Investors often face problems to take right decisions in volatile market as markets could head either way.

Wouldnโ€™t it be disheartening if the markets rallied northwards, the day after you sold your stocks?

What if the markets come crashing down tomorrow, depriving you of the opportunity to enhance profits?

So, the decision to sell is critical.


Some of the points when to sell your stocks:

Prima facie, if there is any drastic change in fundamental of a company, this should be the only reason to sell stock.

But a depth research has to be done before taking any decision.

Changes includes;

-restructuring of its business model,

-different business focus and directions.



1. Margins Crashed

Margins are the profit that a company makes on its sales.

Rising gross margins tell us that a company is reducing production costs or raising prices.

Conversely, deteriorating margins say either that production costs are increasing and the company canโ€™t raise prices proportionally or that the company is cutting prices in an attempt to maintain marketshare.

If there are expenses related to a new productโ€™s introduction then margins might fall for inoffensive reasons.

Falling margins, either gross or operating, often signal a declining competitive position. Thus itโ€™s important to check both.


2.Is There Any Drastic Change In Companyโ€™s Management?

If people in top management of the company say director or president who are liable for a companyโ€™s success begin to go away, there might be a few negative implications for the future outlook of that company as an investor.

You must look into and find out the root cause and also to see how much it could impact you.

If negative prospects, investor should sell the stock and should relocate the funds into a similar company that has stronger and more constant management.


3. What First Fascinated You To The Stock, No Longer Applies

For example, letโ€™s suppose that you bought a stock of a health care company because of its innovative products in the pharmaceutical field and all of a sudden, it loses a crucial patent for a life-saving medicine.

This may result in a decrease of market share in its industry, which might lead to a reduction in future profits (resulting in a decline in the value of its stock).


Stay Tuned for more on this where we would touch upon other major points needed to keep in mind by investors before making any Buy and sell decision.

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Indian Export to Register 10% Growth during 2010-11 :)


With all sectors including textile showing recovery, the total export from India is likely to register 10% increase during 2010-11.


However, the growth during this fiscal (2009-10) would be either flat or marginally negative, although export observed a marginal decrease during the last financial year due to global recession.


While, it is said that almost all the sectors in India were showing a stimulation or plus-growth, including automobile, plantation and engineering.


On the other hand, it is said that the economic situation is not really that bad and there is a sign of revival during the last two to three months whereas the year 2010-11 is said to be good for all the sectors, particularly textile, which was feeling the ”cyclic pinch” and that would be back to business in the year.


Though textile would continue to remain weak in 2009, there could be recovery in the year 2010 and once the demand from the USA and EU improves, it is expected to achieve a reasonable growth ๐Ÿ™‚


However, though there was a steep export growth in textiles and clothing in the first half of 2008-09, there had been slowdown in demand from major markets, USA and EU, due to the global economic crisis.


Indian Corporates Pitched For a Cut in Interest Rates :)

Softer Interest Rate Regime

Stating that it was essential to maintain the growth momentum, India Inc described 6.8% rise in July industrial output as “evidence of recovery and pitched for a cut in interest rate.


However, although performance in July has been lower than the previous month, vigorous increase in mining and manufacturing has kept up the level of industrial growth at a reasonable level of 6.8%.


Additionally, it is said that the industrial economy is passing through a very important stage and FICCI has as a result advocated the need for a softer interest rate regime to assist the overall growth process and promote investments.


“Although performance in July has been somewhat lower than the previous month…nevertheless robust growth in mining and manufacturing have kept up the level of industrial growth at a reasonable level of 6.8 per cent,” Ficci Secretary General Amit Mitra said in a statement.


On the other hand, the RBI had cut reverse repo and repo rate by 25 basis points each in April whereas in June, the factory production was revised to 8.2% against 7.8% anticipated provisionally.

Moreover, Assocham stated that in future, the force of stimulus packages would also add on to the revival and India could move on to a close to 6.5% of GDP in the present financial year.


Note : For More latest Industry,Market and Economy Updates Click Here

India’s FDI Inflows Surge in July :)


The government has revealed that despite a global financial crisis, the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) to India during the month of July 2009 has been registered at $3.52 billion, impressive 56.5% higher than the $2.25 billion registered last year.


However, the inflows in July have been against $2.58 billion during the month of June 2009 and $2.10 billion received during the month of May 2009.


Moreover, it is said that this raise is an optimistic one if the present fiscal situation of India and world is taken into consideration.


In addition, it is said that a non-profit company will be encouraging FDI into India and this will act in association with the central and state governments as well as the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.


On the other hand, the distinctive feature is the partnership between a private sector organization, the Government of India and state governments is unlike anywhere else in the world.


However, in order to attract more foreign investments, Indian government on Thursday announced formation of a not-for-profit company โ€˜Invest Indiaโ€™.


India Inc created 3,00,000 jobs in US: Study

India Inc created 3,00,000 jobs in US: Study

India Inc created 3,00,000 jobs in US: Study

When the Indian outsourcing industry is being blamed for taking away American jobs, a study has found that corporate India has created employment for 3,00,000 people in the US between 2004 and 2007.

An India Brand Equity Foundation study released in Washington on Wednesday by Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma mentioned USD 105 billion contribution by the Indian industry to the US economy during 2004-07.

“This revealed a story of commitment to optimise and to invest in the future of the relationship,” Sharma said.

The USD 50-billion Indian outsourcing industry has come in for a major attack in the US, bolstered by President Barack Obama’s calls to the US companies to move from Bangalore to Buffalo.

Concerned over the backlash in the US, the Indian industry has been trying to lobby with influential Americans and opinion leaders about the benefits that the American can derive from developing economies.