Posts Tagged ‘Indian stock markets’

Weekly Update 2nd – 6th August 2010

Asian markets saw buying as more than half of the companies that announced results in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index have exceeded the analyst’s estimates, boosting confidence about the strength of the recovery. U.S. economy expanded at a 2.4 percent annual pace in the second quarter less than forecast, indicating that the world largest economy will see a moderate recovery.

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The jobless recovery is curbing household purchases as consumer spending that accounts for about 70 percent of the economy rose 1.6 percent in last quarter, compared with a 1.9 percent rate in the previous three months. U.S. financial system recovery is fragile and as per IMF stress tests banks may need as much as $76 billion in capital. In India, as per expectations RBI hiked the policy rates and indicated that monetary steps will continue in order to moderate inflationary pressures.

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RBI chief said that despite of the monetary measures, monsoon rains would play a critical role in moderating food prices. Now RBI will release eight monetary policy statements in a year that will cut short the time of monetary policy adjustments. The central Bank also revised its estimates for inflation and economic growth to 6 percent and 8.5 percent from earlier estimates of 5 percent and 8 percent respectively.

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The annual monsoon rains bounced back from a 17-percent deficit in the previous week to 38 percent above normal in the week to 28 July 2010.Heavy, well distributed showers in the past week helped total rainfall rise to normal during July have raised the farm sector prospects thereby indicating a pickup in rural demand.

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Till now the results announced so far have shown a mixed picture with some disappointment coming from the large caps.The combined net profit of a total of 1,085 companies declined 12.6 percent to `47280 crore on 23.1 percent increase in sales to 609368 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q1 June 2009. Going next week some of the top companies like SBI, Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, Tata steel, etc will announce their quarterly numbers and would help in setting the undertone of the market.

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Indian Stock Markets are holding on to the gains though the momentum for rise is lacking. But the world stock markets are slowly inching up with base metals commodities also showing strength. The rise in Rupee and the midcap stocks rally in the week gone by gives a hope of further rally. It seems the market would take a clearer direction in the coming week. Nifty has support between 5315-5250 levels and Sensex between 17700-17500 levels.

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It is quite visible that good corporate earnings have propped up the sentiments of financial market and commodity is not an exception. Hence we have seen that capital inflow switched to riskier asset from safe asset like gold and dollar index.

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Base metals are the major beneficiary and they are trading at multi months high whereas crude is reacting on stocks pile up in US and ignoring other positive cues. If positive outcome of economic indicators and earnings continue to come in near future then all base metals will trade in a range with upside bias and vice a versa.

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Even in crude oil some lower level buying may occur this week. Expect further fall in gold and if it breaches the mark of 17500 then we may see some spurt in physical buying. In agro commodities, spices may trade in a range on mix fundamentals.

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Weekly Update 12th – 16th July

Stocks in world markets saw huge gains as investors viewed that the recent correction out of fear of double-dip recession in advanced economies has actually overlooked improving outlook for the company’s earnings. Investors sitting on the sidelines bought stocks with the upward revision in earnings estimates for U.S. companies. The gains in markets got a further boost after China said that it will keep a moderately loose policy and South Korea raised interest rates.

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Belief of Asian and Emerging nations will be able to withstand the storm coming from advanced economies rose with the interest rate increases in India, South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged as the sovereign debt crisis are still posing a serious threat to regions recovery.

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The IMF raised its forecast for global growth to 4.6 percent in 2010, the biggest gain since 2007, compared with an April projection of 4.2 percent reflecting a stronger than expected recovery in first half and at the same time giving warning that financial market turmoil has increased the risks to the recovery. However, IMF has not revised the next year growth projections of 4.3 percent. The IMF urged developed economies governments to commit to implementing “credible” plans to lower their deficits over the medium term, including the adoption of binding, multiyear targets and said that they don’t need to start fiscal tightening before 2011. It said that monetary policy in advanced economies can remain “highly accommodative for the foreseeable future,” because inflation is expected to remain “subdued,” helping mitigate the effects of fiscal consolidation on growth. The growth forecast for emerging markets was raised to 6.8 percent, from 6.3 percent in April.

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The fastest growth rate will be China’s 10.5 percent, followed by India’s 9.4 percent and Brazil’s 7.1 percent, the fund said. On the domestic front with the recent improved outlook in the monsoon situation and expectation of strong double digit gain in Index of Industrial production would keep the markets on a upbeat note. The result season that is going to start in the coming week and guidance by the companies for the rest of the year is further expected to set the momentum of the markets.

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Indian stock markets are in a clear uptrend though other world markets which were in a downtrend took a sharp counter rally from lower levels. We will have to wait and watch whether the rally which has started in other markets can sustain or not..

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Nifty has support between 5250-5200 levels and Sensex between 17500-17300 levels.

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Volatility is spreading in entire commodity complex and thus investors are keeping a tight vigil on relative changes to find the best value. Fundamentals of Asian countries are still constructive but it is Euro zone which is still giving red signals. For the time being, commodities should move in a range. Later half of the week is full of event risk as some important data’s from US, UK, Japan etc. can speak about the health of economy, which may provide some much needed direction to the commodities. In NCDEX, volume of July contract is shifting towards August contract, hence some volatility in premium is expected in near term.
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Weekly Update 28th June – 2nd July

China’s central bank move to increase flexibility in yuan against the dollar pushed global markets higher with the onset of the week. The optimism for the demand of commodities rose as the move is expected to increase Chinese consumers demand with the rise in purchasing power. Thereafter, the worrisome news flow from both U.S. & Europe only gave weakness to the markets.

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Disappointing earnings forecast by U.S. companies reignited the growth concerns in the market during the week. Fed policy makers left the overnight interbank lending rate target unchanged in a range of zero to 0.25 percent. Fed echoed that low inflation, stable price expectations and high unemployment “are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”

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It said the U.S. recovery is progressive but not strengthening and “Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad.” Concerns also rose about solvency position of both U.K. and Global banks. Bank of England said that U.K. banks remain “vulnerable” to further writedowns on their assets because of a potential decline in investor appetite for risk. Overall investors are circumspect of the global recovery and are not sure whether the austerity plan by various government will lead to economic prosperity.

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The Indian government now seems to be batting its second innings in power by working on many reforms that were in its agenda for long time. On the recommendations of Kirit Parekh committee, the government decided to go ahead by linking petrol prices to market linked prices & giving Rs. 2/-, Rs. 3/- & Rs. 35/- hike in diesel, kerosine & LPG prices respectively. The long awaited step is expected to cool down the burgeoning under-recoveries of OMC’s & will help consequently in lowering the fiscal deficit. As per our estimates the said increase will accentuate inflation by close to 0.50%. The move that was quite necessary from the long term perspective may put some pressure on the Equity & Bond Markets. As we are already facing high inflation & are on mercy of good monsoon, the step is likely to increase worries. We expect now, with the robust manufacturing activity & clear signs of demand pull inflation the next step may come soon from the monetary body by hiking policy rates. The move may lead to some correction in the capital markets & bond prices may fall.

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Trend of Indian stock markets is up though U.S. and other markets is down which is giving rise to volatility here. Even dollar index is taking some reaction which might give some relief rally to metals in coming week. Nifty has support between 5200- 5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

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Notwithstanding the doubt over the health of world economy, especially U.S. and Europe, commodity is reacting optimistically on every small news and statements.

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CRB index is going through a consolidation phase; any positive news can result in good upside. Two factors; flattish dollar index amid strong Asian economic growth accompanied by commodity demand can keep commodity on stronger side. In past seven months dollar index has rallied around 20%, the move was not showing the inner strength of dollar, rather it was majorly due to European debt crisis and safe haven demand. If we see rangebound to bearish movements in dollar index again it will boost up commodities prices. However, we can see some correction in between, but that should be considered as good buying opportunity.

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Weekly Update 21st – 25th June

Global markets saw synchronized gains of more than two percent this week except China’s Shanghai Composite Index which closed in the negative. The recent measures that were taken in China to cool down the economy like larger down payment for home buyers and increase in reserve requirements for banks seems to have started showing its effects as reflected by the weakening demand for construction metals like Nickel pig iron. Asset price bubble concerns rose after property prices in China rose by 12.4 percent in May.

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China Banking Regulatory Commission said that risks associated with home mortgages are growing and a “chain effect” may reappear in real-estate development loans. The economic restructuring in China has raised the possibility of resurgence in credit risks. The index of leading indicators in US, a gauge of the outlook for growth over the next three to six months, climbed 0.4 percent in May. It is viewed that the largest economy will continue expanding though at a moderate pace in the second half of the year without stoking inflation & creating fewer jobs. This would help the Federal Reserve in continuing with low interest policy for longer time. The European Union’s decision to publish the results of stress tests came after more than a year when U.S. published the results of stress tests on 19 financial institutions. The details of the tests including whether they include a sovereign debt restructuring is not yet disclosed by the European Union. However the step is welcomed by the investors as it will reveal the soundness of the European financial system.

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Coming back at home, as mentioned last week the possibility of hike in policy rates by RBI is gaining strength after Inflation accelerated to 10.16 percent in May giving concerns of generalized Inflation in the economy. Demand side pressures are quite evident now with the encouraging growth in Industrial production together with healthy growth in Exports and Imports. The European concerns that may have a bearing effect on the India’s trade and temporary liquidity squeeze in the Banking system has so far refrained the Banking regulator to continue its exit from an expansionary policy in a calibrated manner.

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Indian Stock Markets went up sharply last week and are looking much better but the problem it seems is with other world markets. It has to be seen whether the Indian markets are able to pull the other markets up or the weaker markets pull down India. Base metal commodities are not doing well though precious metals are all looking good. It seems volatility is likely to continue in such a scenario.

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Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17300-17000 levels.

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Market players were enthralled with the captivating movements commodities noticed last week. Base metals and energy touched multi months low in the beginning of the week while second half of the week witnessed steep profit booking. Sideways congestion may be witnessed in commodities this week, as investors are endeavoring to figure out the next direction in commodities.

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However, the week is full of event risk and may trigger volatility in between.

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Many meets and high importance economic releases from US, UK and other nations are scheduled this week. Traders may refrain to create large position before FOMC meeting, which is scheduled on Wednesday.

Weekly Update 12th-16th April 2010

The markets continued with their upward momentum despite the concerns arising that Greece may default on 304.2 billion euros ($405.2 billion) of its debt. Trichet expressed confidence that Greece won’t default & many believe that IMF may come in for a bailout.

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Concerns also arose over the huge gains that markets world over has seen in a year. All in all the optimism about the strength of the recovery in global economy suggested by various positive economic data kept the market pace intact. According to National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter matching the increase seen in the last quarter of the previous calendar year.

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Huge bank credit offtake in the last fortnight ending 26 March 2010 to the tune of Rs. 1.15 lakh crore after the continuous signs of Industrial,service & external sector recovery will increase the faith among the investors about the economy. The recent run up in the markets hassomewhat discounted the expected good corporate results & the increase in policy rates by the RBI to avoid the danger of generalised inflation in the economy. From the market activity, it looks that the Midcap & small cap would remain the favorites among the investors due to relative valuations. In the coming week, focus of the market would be on the Infosys results & guidance & market would also look on to the IIP numbers, especially the capital goods to gauge the momentum in the Industrial activity.

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Trend of all world markets is up and so have the Indian Stock Markets posted a 9 week continuous rally. The falling dollar index and the rising rupee gave steam to various asset classes which all moved up. The debate between the problems of Greece or other European nations will be unending but till the trend is up, one should look at longs. Nifty has support between 5250-5150 levels and Sensex between 17700-17300 levels.

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Recent buoyancy coupled with projected tightness in the supply of various commodities is signifying the bottoming out of global economy.

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Improvement in housing, job and retail sales data are stimulating fresh buying in commodities, especially in metals and energy. Remarkable jump in dollar index is unable to give much impact on commodities as they are trading on their own fundamentals. Nevertheless, several commodities hit multi months high, hence cautious approach is advised here. Appreciating rupee, which gained more than 5% in just nine weeks, is most likely to eat up the volatility in domestic exchanges. Price movements could be locked in agro commodities as well, particularly in spices, as export activities have become subdued due to the same reason of appreciation in rupee.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

Indian Stock Market Reaction To Indian Budget :)

Indian stock markets, reacted positively to the budget, with a benchmark index breaking free to close 237 points higher than its previous weekly close. 🙂

The 30-share sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) moved up 237.92 points or 1.47 percent to end Friday at 16,429.55 points, 237 points above its previous weekly close at 16,191.63 points.

The broader S&P CNX Nifty of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) too posted gains to end the week at 4,922.3 points, up 77.4 points or 1.57 percent.

Broader market indices, however, ended the week in the red with the BSE midcap index closing 0.54 percent down and the BSE smallcap index 1.67 percent lower.

“Though it is not possible to keep everyone happy, the finance minister has done a commendable job. This was evident from the way markets reacted to the announcements,” said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the equity head for brokerage firm SMC Capitals.

“The budget did help in breaking from the side-ways movement, but it is not going to help much going forward. A lot of the budget news has been factored in and one should not expect a major rally,” he added.

The top gainers during the week included Hindalco (up 7.7 percent), Maruti Suzuki (up 6.8 percent), L&T (up 6.2 percent), Hero Honda (up 5.5 percent) and ICICI Bank (up 5 percent).

Among top losers were ITC (down 6.5 percent), Reliance Communications (down 2.8 percent), Tata Power (down 2.2 percent), Hindustan Unilever (down 2.2 percent) and Reliance Industries (down 0.6 percent).

Data with markets watchdog Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) showed that foreign funds were net buyers during the week, having bought scrips worth $313.56 million.

Benchmark indices in the US ended slightly lower this week with Dow Jones industrial average dipping 0.8 percent, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index 500 down 0.4 percent and the Nasdaq composite falling 0.3 percent.

Investors Wealth Up 80% in Just Over Five Months :)

Investors-gain-Rs25lakh-cr

Investor wealth has increased by over Rs 25 lakh crore in just over five months from the beginning of the current financial year, on improving sentiments in the domestic and global markets.

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According to an analysis of the valuations for the period (Apr 1-Sep 18), the combined market capitalization of all the firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange increased by Rs 25,02,749 crore or nearly 80 per cent.

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Analysts believe the rise in investor wealth has been due to the upbeat market sentiments on indications of global economic recovery.

“The markets have given a healthy return on the back of positive mood among domestic and international investors,” SMC Global‘s Vice President Rajesh Jain said.

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The total market valuation increased to Rs 56, 35,835.75 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 31,33,086.7 crore on Apr 1.

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While, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex has given a healthy return of nearly 70% to hover around 16,700 level in September against 9,900 level in April.

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The Sensex companies, which comprises of about 45 per cent of the total market capitalisation of all the companies, saw its combined market valuation rise by over Rs 10,00,000 crore in the reviewed period.

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The combined market capitalisation of the 30 blue-chip stocks rose to Rs 25,31,831.55 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 15,31,252.34 crore on Apr 1.

However, the total turnover of the Sensex companies dropped to Rs 1,597.42 crore on Sep 18 from 1,705.52 crore on Apr 1.

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Jain also said that the drop in the volumes is due to less participation of retail investors in the markets, which reflects that the run is mainly on account of institutional money, both domestic and international.

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Meanwhile, foreign investment into the Indian stock markets are likely to cross USD 10 billion-mark by the end of this month.

Huge sum of USD 9.8 billion (Rs 47,674 crore) have already been poured into the bourses by overseas entities so far in 2009.

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