Posts Tagged ‘Indian stock market’

Weekly Update 26th – 30th July 2010

The markets witnessed good buying in the week gone by as the corporates from U.S. to Europe showed good performance raising the confidence in the strength of the global economic growth. Continuous buying by the foreign institutions and the strength in the developed markets helped stocks to scale 29 months high. U.S. Fed chief Ben S. Bernanke said that central bank would take additional action if the world’s largest economy does not continue to improve.

.

European Banks Stress test result showed that from a sample of 91 European banks, representing 65% of the European market in terms of total assets, 7 banks would see their Tier 1 capital ratios fall below 6%. The focus of the test was mainly to assess the ability of the banks to absorb possible shocks on credit and market risks, including sovereign risks over a 2 years horizon, until the end of 2011. The test revealed that the aggregate Tier 1 ratio, used as a common measure of banks’ resilience to shocks, under the adverse scenario would decrease from 10.3 percent in 2009 to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011 (compared to the regulatory minimum of 4 percent and to the threshold of 6 percent set up for this exercise). However investors are still ambiguous about the credibility of the test as it ignores the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt assuming a case of no default by Greece or any other European country.

.

India Inc. has so far shown good performance. The net profit of 339 companies that have declared results has grown by 25.5 percent and sales have shot up by 17.8 percent compared to corresponding quarter last year. The annual monsoon rains improved 24 percent from the deficit in the previous week, but were still 17 percent below normal in the week to 21July 2010, as per the data of the India Meteorological Department on Thursday, 22 July 2010. The seasonal monsoon rains during 1 June to 22 July 2010 were 12 percent below normal.

.

The expectation of another 25bps hike in policy rates has already been built in the market. Market would take a cue from what RBI says in its monetary policy on 27th July about the health of domestic market and the steps in its act of balancing growth while anchoring inflationary expectations.

.

Trend of Indian Stock Markets is up since a month and now the world markets are also participating in the rally. The rise in Base metal commodities is giving more steam to the rally as that is a reflection of increasing demand for metals in the industry. Nifty has support between 5315-5250 levels and Sensex between 17700- 17500 levels.

.

Better than expected earnings amid optimistic equity market bestowed the much needed direction to the commodity market and thus it headed for biggest gain since March. In the meantime, dollar is going down and likely to trade in a negative territory as investors are moving back to the risky asset, which is appearing more promising in current context. Gold is narrating the same story and it is moving in a range with downside bias. Gold silver ratio has declined as silver outperformed gold, getting support from terrific rise in base metals prices. Energy complex has ignored the negative news and shore up on better results and strong technicals. But yes, it’s a time to book profit in spices as they are overbought now, especially pepper.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com,http://www.smctradeonline.com
,http://www.smcwealth.com

Weekly Update 19th – 23rd July 2010

The concerns over recovery in global economy resurfaced in investors mind as China economy grew 10.3 percent in the second quarter showing moderation from 11.9 percent expansion in the first quarter. In U.S., consumer confidence dropped in July to the lowest level in the year to 66.5 from 76 in previous month and factory output too fell by 0.4 percent in June.

.

The minutes released by the office of the Federal Reserve said that “The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside”. The statement and weak data only added to the worries and led to the decline in most of the global markets.

.

India’s Industrial Production growth came surprisingly low to 11.5 percent in May from a year earlier and the April growth was revised downward to 16.5 percent from 17.6 percent. It is expected that the Industrial Production will remain close to double digits as some of the leading indicators like vehicle sales remained buoyant in June.

.

Keeping a vigil on the liquidity and in order to ensure smooth credit lines for both government and corporate to sustain the growth momentum, RBI has further extended the second liquidity adjustment facility (SLAF) on a daily basis till July 30, 2010. Strong credit growth in Banking system and Industrial production together with high food inflation may influence RBI to raise policy rates by another 25 bps in its first quarter review on 27th July.

.

The latest statement by the IMD that the monsoon up to 15 July has so far been 14 percent below the long period average is a cause of concern.July, especially being the most important month for sowing the Kharif crops has led to the alteration of earlier beliefs that going ahead food inflation will moderate.

.

Mostly world markets are in downtrend though Indian stock market is still in uptrend. The base metal commodities are not able to rise which is showing the underlying uncertainty in the markets. One should be cautious in such markets.

.

Nifty has support between 5280-5220 levels and Sensex between 17600-17400 levels.Indian markets have gone up substantially in last one and half month and dollar index has fallen sharply from higher levels but the Indian rupee has not moved much which is a sign of concern as rupee should have strengthened in such an environment.

.

Lack of clarity with reference to the direction of world economy is painting a hazy picture for commodity market. Even uncertain outcome of economic releases and result of second quarter is giving little direction to the commodities. Investors are refraining to make large position in current situation. This week, we have important data form UK and Canada. Housing data can give further direction to base metals. Bullions can trade in a slim spread. Expiry of July contract in NCDEX may result in more volatility in all agro commodities. After witnessing a multi week high some spices may see a pause in rally.

.

OUR Websites:  http://www.smcindiaonline.com,http://www.smccapitals.com,http://www.smctradeonline.com
,http://www.smcwealth.com

Indian Stock Traders To Contend With Fewer Holidays in 2010 !

Indian Stock Traders To Contend With Fewer Holidays in 2010

.

Indian brokerages and traders would have to contend with fewer trading holidays in 2010, going by the list of weekdays on which the markets will remain closed in 2010.

.

Moreover, they would have to put in longer hours this year owing to the decision of stock exchanges to increase the trading hours.

.

In comparison to 2009, when there were 19 holidays throughout the year, the projected number of public holidays in 2010 has dropped to just 11, including the first day of the year.

.

As per the official of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), this is certainly not by design.

Eight holidays this year — including Dussehra, Guru Nanak’s birthday, Christmas, Independence Day — fall either on a Saturday or Sunday,” he said.

“It’s only that we have mentioned them on our holiday list.”

.

According to SMC Capital’s Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the Securities and Exchange Board of India was already contemplating a cut in the number of holidays to align the Indian markets with other peers, where trading holidays are restricted to six-seven a year.

.

“This year, coincidentally, this has fallen in place. Many festivals and events are on weekends. That’s why, if you notice, today has been declared a holiday as a consolation to us,” Thunuguntla told.

.

The authorities at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have not only increased the trading hours by 55 minutes but have also decided not to advance the opening bell this year .

.

From Jan 4 onwards, trading will commence at 9 a.m., while the closing bell will ring at 3.30 p.m. in a move intended to woo foreign funds from other major Asian markets like Singapore and Hong Kong.

.

FLASHBACK 2009


For India, 2009, been a great year with the return of a stable government at centre, good FII inflow, 80% increase in the Indian stock market and less terror attacks. But globally, H1N1 influenza and a series of bankruptcy by some big international giants are some events, which we never want to happen again.

.

.

Putting behind the worst annual performance ever, Indian equities were on a roll in 2009, catapulting a key index by more than 80 percent, to close the year with one of the best gains among emerging markets.

.

At closing bell Thursday, the 30-share benchmark sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) was ruling at 17,464.81 points with an impressive gain of 7,817.5 points, or 81.03 percent, over the previous year’s close at 9,647.31 points.

.

This was the best annual performance since 1999 and was in sharp contrast to 2008, when the Sensex ended with a hefty loss of 10,639.68 points or 52.45 percent making it the third-worst performing equities index among emerging markets.

.

The story was no different at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the other major bourse in the country, where the broader 50-scrip S&P CNX Nifty gained a hefty 2,241.9 points or 75.76 percent when it closed at 5,201.05 points Thursday.

.

The main factors that made key indices rise like a Phoenix was resilience of the Indian economy and impressive growth despite global slowdown that also reflected in corporate earnings and the return of the foreign institutional funds.

.

According to markets watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Board of India, such overseas funds pumped about $17.46 billion into the Indian stock markets in 2009, as opposed to a net sale worth $13.135 billion for the first time in over a decade..

.

‘The performance in 2009 surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic person. There were not many places left for foreign funds to invest and India was among the few attractive destinations,’ said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

.

Even as the Sensex gained 7,817.5 points, some of the 13 sector-specific indices stood out because of their performance — the metals index appreciated the most, up 233.68 percent, while auto followed with a gain of 204.16 points..

.

Similarly, the indices for information technology was up 132.78 percent, capital goods gained 104.26 percent, consumer durables rose 97.8 percent, banking gained 83.9 percent, state-run enterprises inflated 80.54 percent, power moved up by 74.3 percent.

.

On the whole, the year started on a promising note with the government unveiling a second dose of fiscal stimulus to help the economy weather the adverse impact of a slowdown in the global economy — touted as the worst in eight decades.

.

As a result, the Sensex rallied till Jan 6 and gained 7.13 percent in just three days of trading. But then came the confession of a multi-million dollar fraud by Satyam Computer founder B. Ramalinga Raju, triggering a 7.25 percent fall in just one session.

.

Till February, the barometer index was oscillating between 9,000-odd points and 10,300-levels. But as signs of a prolonged economic recession receded the world over, Indian equities found more takers and reflected in steady rise in the index.

.

By the beginning of May it was trading comfortably around the 12,000-point mark and gave a thumping welcome to the electoral victory of the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance — that even saw suspension of trading as indices hit the upper circuit twice.

.

On that eventful day of May 18, the Sensex stood at 14,284.21 points, gaining 2,110.79 points, or 17.33 percent, over the previous close, while Nifty also rose 17.3 percent, or 636.4 points, to close at 4,308.05 points.

The remaining months of the year saw a steady rise in the index with interim corrections even as events like the presentation of an industry-friendly national budget and a high growth for the economy during the second quarter boosted investor sentiments.

.

Looking at individual stocks that go into the Sensex basket, the top five gainers during 2009 were Tata Motors, up 398.33 percent at Rs.792.60; Mahindra and Mahindra, up 293.23 percent at Rs.1,080.80; Sterlite Industries, up 230.45 percent at Rs.861.65; Hindalco, up 211.23 percent at Rs.160.75; and Maruti Suzuki, up 199.88 percent at Rs.1,559.65.

.

Only three stocks ended lower — Bharti Airtel was down 54.02 percent at Rs.328.80; Reliance Communications was down 23.92 percent at Rs.172.90; and Reliance Industries which ended lower since the company declared a 1:1 bonus.

.

Looking ahead, the markets expect some more action once the government’s divestment programme gets underway even as investors have their fingers crossed on when the Sensex will breach the magical 21,000 mark.

.

So, overall, the year 2009 has been one of the most significant chapters in the stock market growth with an increase of 80% in its value. Further, we keep our spirits high on FM’s comment that Indian economy can grow at 7.75% in FY10.

.


Gold Touches a New High of Rs 16,220 per 10 gram !

Gold-surges-alltime-high

Due to the speedy buying by stockists in advance of the festival season, in the midst of the global rates climbing to an 18-month high of $ 1,018.15 an ounce, GOLD rose by Rs 250 to touch a new high of Rs 16,220 per 10 gram in the gold market.

🙂

However, it is said that after the metal in London increased to an 18-month high, the buying action gathered momentum as stockists indulged in buying gold.

🙂

While, the concern was that a global economic revival may strengthen inflation in the midst of a weak dollar, enhancing demand for the metal as an alternative investment.

On the other hand, gold in overseas markets advanced 10.60 dollar, or 1.1%, to 1,018.15 dollar an ounce whereas silver coins also touched a record high of Rs 31,800 per 100 pieces.

🙂

Further, standard gold and ornaments spurted by Rs 250 each to Rs 16,220 and Rs 16,070 per 10 gram, respectively.

On the other side, sovereign increased by Rs  50 to Rs 12,950 per piece of 8 gram.

🙂

Marketmen said the precious metal might see new peaks in the coming days once the festival and marriage season starts on September 19.

Current upsurge maybe purely out of reason of stockists buying as retailers refrained from buying gold during ‘Sharaadh’, the ongoing inauspicious fortnight in Hindu mythology.

🙂

According to analysts, gold may climb a high level of $1,100 an ounce in the overseas market in the next six months.

Silver ready shot up by Rs 700 to Rs 26,600 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 910 to Rs 27,570 per kg.

🙂

Silver coins rose to an all-time high by gaining Rs 200 to Rs 31,700 for buying and Rs 31,800 for selling of 100 pieces.

🙂

However in between due to the increasing investment demand with the commencement of festival and marriage season, gold imports observed a huge rise during August at 21.8 tonnes as compared to the previous month where the import of the precious metal was 7.8 tonnes this year.

This shows that India’s gold imports have trebled in a gap of one month.

🙂

Indian Stocks Rose to a 15-Month High :)

Indian-stocks-15-month high

Indian stocks rose to a 15-month high yesterday. 🙂

🙂

DLF Ltd led gains as investors judged recent declines as excessive. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd climbed on a report it will make sports utility vehicles for overseas markets.

🙂

DLF, the biggest real estate developer, jumped 5.5% after losing 10% in the previous five trading sessions.

🙂

Mahindra & Mahindra, the largest sports utility vehicle maker, advanced 1.5%.

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd, the No 1 copper producer, added 3.8% after metals prices climbed.

🙂

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index (Sensex), rose 240.26, or 1.5%, to 16,454.45, the highest since May 28, 2008.

The gauge declined 0.3% on Monday, snapping a six-day rally.

🙂

“There is strong liquidity supporting the market,” Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd in New Delhi. “Yesterday’s fall has made some stocks attractive.”

🙂

The rupee advanced against the US dollar as overseas investors added to holdings of the nation’s assets amid signs economic growth is quickening.

🙂

The rupee climbed 0.2% to 48.655 per dollar at the 5pm close in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The currency has risen 0.4% this month.

India’s $1.2tn economy expanded 6.1% in the three months to June from a year earlier, accelerating for the first time since 2007, the government said last month.

🙂

Note : For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

FII Net Inflow Crossed $8 Billion in 8 Months :)

FII Net Inflow

FIIs’ net investments in Indian equities crossed $8 billion in calendar 2009 with foreigners buying stocks worth $274 million on Friday.

🙂

At the end of July, net inflows from FIIs stood at $7.3 billion and it took another 20 trading sessions before net inflows crossed the $8-billion mark, the first time this year.

The sensex has risen 65% till now in 2009.

🙂

Last year, hit by recession back home FIIs took out nearly $12 billion from Indian stock markets but with sentiment improving from March this year, they have returned with net investment amounting to $9.3 billion, Sebi data shows.

🙂

Data include stocks bought by FIIs through QIPs and public offers, buybacks and also investments in unlisted companies, fund flow trackers said.

🙂

As per experts this phenomena has happened because India is being considered as one of the better performing market since the October crash.

🙂

Experts maintains that despite immediate headwinds such as impact of poor monsoons on agriculture and uncertain rural economy, the growth potential in the economy cannot be overlooked.

🙂

“Investors will be looking for value and India could be very well the destination” experts pointed out.

With FIIs holding 16% of India’s biggest 500 companies, market experts believe FII holding may rival the 19.1% peak in 2007 as the third-largest Asian economy continues to grow at a decent pace.

🙂