Posts Tagged ‘IIP’

Weekly Update 13th – 17th December 2010

The fall in the domestic markets in the week gone by was really painful. The fall was seen across the board; both mid and small size company stocks were heavily punished. SEBI probed in some companies for price rigging reignited the concerns that there may be some cases which are yet to come.

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On the global front, thiswas the week when most of the major developed markets along with the emerging economies closed in positive. The disconnect reveals that overhand in the markets was more related to domestic issues only.U.S. economic data is continuing to point out that environment over there is improving. A consumer sentiment that reflects the strength of consumer spending rose six months high to 74.2 in the first half of December from 71.6 at the end of November.

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U.S. trade deficit in October shrank more that expected to $38.7 billion from a revised $44.6 billion shortfall the month before. Further more, the expected continuance of Bush tax for next two years which is likely to be cleared by U.S. senate in next two weeks will also help in improving sentiments. Japanese economy saw an annualized expansion of 4.5 percent for the quarter ended 30th September against expectations of 4.1 percent. In order to address inflationary pressures in the economy, China once again raised the reserve requirements for the third time in five weeks by 50 bps.

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The recent move takes reserve ratios requirement now to18.5 percent for the biggest banks. Chinese leaders have also indicated that the nation will shift to a tighter, “prudent” monetary policy for next year. Consumer and producer price index rose to 5.1 percent and 6.1 percent respectively for the month of November as against the expectation of 4.7 and 5.1 percent respectively. Moving ahead, we believe that the concerns pertaining to Indian Industrial growth and in turn overall growth of the economy would not be there after seeing the 10.8 percent growth in IIP for the month of October as compared to 4.4 percent last month. Moreover,we also believe that even for the month of November we could see the Industrial growth picking up close to 12 percent.

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The indicators like car sales growth of 20 percent,commercial vehicle sales growing by more than 18 percent and HSBC Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4 in November from 57.2 in previous month give support to our belief.In the forthcoming days we believe we may continue to see bouts of volatility in the markets as nervousness is still there. In short term now we think the advance tax figures would help the markets in gauging the profitability of India Inc. as the result season is approaching. Nifty has strong support between 5900-5840 and Sensex between 19400-19000.In commodity section, bullions counter may trade on volatile path due to lack of clear direction on risk sentiment. Base metal counter will take cues from economic data from US. Crude oil further movement will depend on the demand from China, OECD countries and weather conditions in Europe.

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OPEC members are planning to increase output over the coming months. Copper will continue to make fresh high in near term as the global deficit will push its prices to new levels. The outcome of Central Economic Work Conference in China will further guide the movement in metal counter. In agro pack guar complex may remain on weaker side amid weak export demand. Jeera and peeper maytad lower on selling pressure on news of re-sowing. Mentha oil can tumble lower onarrivals. Soya will remain range tracking mixed movement in CBOT. CPO may trade on higher side tracking firm Malaysian CPO.

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PRICE INDEX “The Score Card”

The price index is an indicator of the average price movement over time of a fixed basket of goods and services. The objective is to monitor & measure the retail, wholesale or producer prices etc.

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Base Year for calculation: Presently WPI series compiled are — Assam (base 1993-94), Bihar (1991-92), Haryana (1980-81), Karnataka (1981-82), Punjab (1979-82), U.P.(1970- 71) and West Bengal (1980-81). The National Statistical Commission has recommended that base year should be revised every five year and not later than ten years. Step-wise introduction to compilation of WPI: Like most of the price indices, WPI is based on “Laspeyres formula” for reason of practical convenience. These steps are discussed in detail in the following sections:

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1) Concept of Wholesale Prices: It is the rate at which relatively large transaction of purchase, usually for further sale, is effected. The price pertaining to bulk transaction of agricultural commodities may be farm harvest prices, or prices at the village mandi /market of the Agricultural Marketing Produce Committee/ procurement prices, support prices.

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2) Choice of Base Year: The criteria for the selection of base year are (i) a normal year i.e. a year in which there are no abnormalities in the level of production, trade and in the price level and price variations, (ii) a year for which reliable production, price and other required data are available and (iii) a year as recent possible and comparable with other data series at national and state level.

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3) Selection of Items, Varieties/ Grades, Markets: The importance of an item in the free market will depend on its traded value during the base year. In agriculture commodities the selection of new items in the basket is done on the basis of increased importance in wholesale markets. In the existing WPI series, items, their specifications and markets have been finalized in consultation of with the Directorate of E&S (M/O Agriculture), National Horticulture Board, Spices Board,Tea board, Coffee Board and Rubber Board, Silk Board, Directorate Of Tobacco, Cotton Corporation of India etc.

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4) Derivation of Weighting Diagram: Weights of Agriculture commodities: These weights are based on the Marketed value (MV) arrived at by multiplying Marketed Surplus Ratio (MSR) to the estimates of Value of Production (VOP) of agricultural commodities.

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5) Collection of Prices: The collection of base prices is done concurrently while the work on finalization of index basket is on. Therefore, price collection is normally done for larger number of items pending finalization. Once the basket is ready, current prices are collected only as per the final basket from the designated sources. Weekly prices need to be collected for pre-determined day of the week. For the current series prices are quoted on the basis of the prevailing prices of every Friday.

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6) Treatment of prices collected from open market & administered prices: The issue of using administered prices for index compilation is resolved by taking into account appropriate ratio between the levy and non-levy portions. Where these ratios are not available, the issues can be resolved through taking the appropriate number of price quotations of the administered prices and the open market prices after periodic review.

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7) Classification structure: The classification is based on NIC renders the WPI data amenable to comparison with the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and National Income data.

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8) Methodology of Index Calculation: In the first stage, once the price data are scrutinized, price relative for each price quote is calculated. Price relative is calculated as the ratio of the current price to the base price multiplied by 100 i.e. (P1/Po) X100. In the next stage, commodity/item level index is arrived at as the simple arithmetic average of the price relatives of all the varieties (each quote) included under that commodity. Next, the indices for the sub groups/groups/ major groups are compiled and the aggregationmethod is based on Laspeyres formula.

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9) Provisional Vs Final: The weekly indices are compiled after a short gap of two weeks only as compared to other indices, which are compiled on monthly basis. The WPI are, therefore released provisionally and final revised indices, incorporating all possible quotations, are released after a gap of two months.

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10) Data collection mechanism : At present data collection for WPI is solely based on voluntary basis. Price data pertaining to Primary articles and Fuel & petroleum products are mainly collected through administrative Ministries/ Department’s, PSU’s and state government departments. For ‘Manufactured products’, apart from some government sources, data collection is done through Chambers of Commerce, Trade Associations, Business Houses and leading Manufacturing Units.

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Weekly Update 9th – 13th August

The last week saw good amount of buying in U.S and other markets as the companies reported better numbers than the expectations in the result season. However the concerns remain over the U.S. recovery as the consumer spending, pending home sales and factory orders were all weaker than projected in June indicating moderation in the second half of the calendar year.

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In China, banking regulator has asked the lenders to conduct a stress test including worst case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively. The test highlights the government concern over the health of property market even after the regulator has tightened the real estate lending to crack down on speculation since mid April.

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Huge foreign money inflow, strong auto sales and manufacturing data together with good monsoon especially in the fortnight ending 4th August 2010 kept the markets on upbeat note. Life Insurance Corporation said that it plans to invest `2 trillion stocks and bonds in the current fiscal year. So far the Insurance major has invested 390 billion in the first quarter including 100 billion in equities.

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Approximately 2080 companies that have announced numbers have shown a mixed picture. The combined net profit of all companies fell 9.2% to 57,560 crore on 20.7% rise in sales to 7,07,925 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q1 June 2009.

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Stock specific movement in market is likely to continue as some of the major companies like Bharti Airtel, State Bank, Reliance Communication, Suzlon, etc. are coming out with the results in the coming week.

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Pranab Mukherjee has already expressed concerns over the aggressive interest increase as it may moderate the economic growth. The Index of Industrial Production that saw some moderation in growth in May and also revised downward for the month of April is further expected to show some moderation in the month of June. Six core industries having weight of 26.68 percent in IIP have experienced a 3.4 percent expansion in June compared to 6.3 percent in the prior month. The data scheduled to be released on 12th August is likely to influence the markets and may help in gauging the central bank move in the coming months.

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Overall trend of world markets is up. Volatility indicators near lows are a sign of concern as it reflects that investors are not worried at all in taking positions. But till the trend of stock market is up, one should be playing on the long side only. US dollar index fall in last 3 months has also contributed to the rise of various asset classes. Nifty has support between 5350-5300 levels and Sensex between 17800-17600 levels.

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It appears that bulls are dominating bears in commodities. Market is looking very enthusiastic on the back of better results together with buoyant equity market. It is evident by the increased volume of commodity bourses across the globe. Noteworthy decline in dollar index has also supported buying in commodities.

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However, 80 is very good support for dollar index. The week is full of event risk. Traders may refrain to take large position in bullions before FOMC rate decision meeting. CPI and advance retail sales data of US will provide further direction to the base metals. Ongoing hurricane season is likely to keep crude oil in upper range. Severe drought and the decision to halt the export from 15th August to 31st December have stimulated fresh buying in grains and they are continuously moving up. Oil seeds and edible oil complex is looking promising and investors should utilized every dip as buying opportunity.

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INDIAN ECONOMY – GAINING STRENGTH Part 1

Stock market reflects & discounts the overall conditions in the economy.Besides, stock prices in the market are also governed by the investor behavior & valuations. Sometimes investor’s optimism takes the market valuation to a level that it does not matches up with the actual future growth, thus becoming the basis for correction & vice- versa. It is said that “ markets may remain irrational till the life of human being”. Now let us have a look at the economy to see what lies in the future & how it is shaping up for the next leg of growth.

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Indian economy is expected to grow by 7.2% in the fiscal ended on 31st march 2010 & is projected to expand by 8.55 in the current fiscal year and 9% in the next year. The continued improvement in the sentiments of the manufacturing sector which currently contributes around 15% in GDP is likely to play a major role in taking GDP growth to double digits.

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Strong industrial recovery has been the key underlying strength behind the recovery of GDP. During April- December 2009, the index of industrial production (IIP) increased by 8.6% over the corresponding period. Factors that will drive the growth in the industrial production are:

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  • Improvement in agriculture output- Tokyo-based Research institute for global change has predicted normal monsoon rains in india for the current year. On the belief of climatic conditions will remain normal during the year we expect the improved availability of agricultural output to push up production of manufactured food products..

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  • Rising consumer demand – as the business conditions are improving & corporate are giving wage hikes, we believe this will strengthen the sense of financial security in the minds of urban middle-class. A rise in purchasing power and availability of easy and affordable loans are expected to increase the demand for durable goods like auto, consumer appliances.

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  • More availability of mining products- we expect natural gas & crude oil output would increase as the result of the efforts that are being done by companies like Reliance & Cairn India. Coal Production will also rise owing to the allocation of new coal blocks by the government. Fertilizer & Electricity sector would be the key & direct beneficiary with the improvement in the gas & coal availability.

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    Stay tuned for more on this 🙂

    Weekly Update 12th-16th April 2010

    The markets continued with their upward momentum despite the concerns arising that Greece may default on 304.2 billion euros ($405.2 billion) of its debt. Trichet expressed confidence that Greece won’t default & many believe that IMF may come in for a bailout.

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    Concerns also arose over the huge gains that markets world over has seen in a year. All in all the optimism about the strength of the recovery in global economy suggested by various positive economic data kept the market pace intact. According to National Institute of Economic and Social Research, UK GDP expanded by 0.4% in the first quarter matching the increase seen in the last quarter of the previous calendar year.

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    Huge bank credit offtake in the last fortnight ending 26 March 2010 to the tune of Rs. 1.15 lakh crore after the continuous signs of Industrial,service & external sector recovery will increase the faith among the investors about the economy. The recent run up in the markets hassomewhat discounted the expected good corporate results & the increase in policy rates by the RBI to avoid the danger of generalised inflation in the economy. From the market activity, it looks that the Midcap & small cap would remain the favorites among the investors due to relative valuations. In the coming week, focus of the market would be on the Infosys results & guidance & market would also look on to the IIP numbers, especially the capital goods to gauge the momentum in the Industrial activity.

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    Trend of all world markets is up and so have the Indian Stock Markets posted a 9 week continuous rally. The falling dollar index and the rising rupee gave steam to various asset classes which all moved up. The debate between the problems of Greece or other European nations will be unending but till the trend is up, one should look at longs. Nifty has support between 5250-5150 levels and Sensex between 17700-17300 levels.

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    Recent buoyancy coupled with projected tightness in the supply of various commodities is signifying the bottoming out of global economy.

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    Improvement in housing, job and retail sales data are stimulating fresh buying in commodities, especially in metals and energy. Remarkable jump in dollar index is unable to give much impact on commodities as they are trading on their own fundamentals. Nevertheless, several commodities hit multi months high, hence cautious approach is advised here. Appreciating rupee, which gained more than 5% in just nine weeks, is most likely to eat up the volatility in domestic exchanges. Price movements could be locked in agro commodities as well, particularly in spices, as export activities have become subdued due to the same reason of appreciation in rupee.

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    Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

    NEWS ROUND UP

    Economy

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    ·IIP for the month of January grew 16.7% on year. The mining sector grew 14.6% in the month while the manufacturing sector grew 17.9%. The electricity sector witnessed a growth of 5.6% in the month.

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    India’s annual food price index increased 17.81% as on week ended February 27, slower than the 17.87% growth recorded last week. A year ago, food prices were up 7.54%.

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    Healthcare

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    ·Fortis Healthcare announced the largest overseas acquisition by an Indian company in the healthcare space, buying the entire 23.9 per cent stake held by TPG Capital in Singapore’s Parkway Holding Ltd for $686 million (Rs 3,119 crore).

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    Capital Goods

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    ·ABB Ltd. has bagged orders worth $22 million (nearly Rs 100 crore) from Haryana Vidyut Prasaran Nigam for the supply of four sub-stations. The company would deliver four sub-stations equipped with automation, protection and control systems to HVPNL.

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    ·Areva T&D India has bagged a contract worth Rs 400 crore from Uttar Pradesh(UP) Power Transmission Corporation for building a substation. The company’s transmission and distribution division will build a 765 KV extra high voltage substation at Anpara thermal plant in UP.

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    ·Thermax announced a JV with US-based Babcock & Wilcox Power Generation Group to manufacture super-critical boilers in the country. The total investment in the JV is estimated at Rs 700 crore.

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    ·McNally Bharat Engineering Company has bagged an order worth Rs 245.42 crore from Steel Authority of India Ltd for infrastructure related works at Rourkela steel plant. The contract is for inter-plant transportation facilities at Rourkela steel plant.

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    Mining & Minerals

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    ·State-owned miner NMDC is planning to invest around Rs 2,400 crore to lay a pipeline between its Chhattisgarh plant and Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh.

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    Realty & Construction

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    ·Gammon India has bagged an order worth Rs Rs 631.81 crore from Delhi Tourism and Transportation Development Corporation for construction of bridge. The company has received the project for construction of bridge and its approaches over river Yamuna, Delhi.

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    ·Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) has plans to invest around Rs 50,000 crore in its township project in Lavasa, near here, over the next 10-12 years ·Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) along with its joint venture partner has bagged a contract worth Rs 197 crore from North Frontier Railway for
    development of a tunnel in Imphal.The company has bagged the project along with its JV partner Coastal Projects Ltd for developing a railway tunnel between Jiribam and Tupur in Imphal.

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    ·Nagarjuna Construction Company secured new contracts aggregating to Rs 1,221 crore. The first order is of two contracts valued at Rs 647 crore from Hyderabad Growth Corridor. In addition, it has secured three contracts worth Rs 358 crore from Maharashtra State Electricity Distribution.

    ·Construction firm Ahluwalia Contracts India is in acquisition talks for specialised construction firms, with a war-chest of up to Rs 100 crore, and hopes to sew up the deal by June. The New Delhi-based firm sees a 25-30 per cent organic growth for next five years and acquisitions of up to Rs 100 crore could be funded from its internal resources.

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    Banking & Finance

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    ·Rural Electrification Corporation Ltd (REC) signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with NTPC Tamil Nadu Energy Company Ltd (NTECL), a joint venture company set up by NTPC and the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board (TNEB), to fund a power project in North Chennai. Of the total project cost, 30 per cent is being met by equity and balance through debt.

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    Distilleries

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    ·The country’s largest liquor maker United Spirits is undertaking an aggressive promotion campaign for its recently launched energy drink ‘Romanov Red’.

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    The company will invest over Rs 5 crore in the next one year on promotions, as it aims to garner a 15 per cent share in the domestic energy drink market that stands at around 1.5 million cases (of 24 cans) per annum.

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    Stay Tuned for More updates 🙂

    Weekly Update 15th – 19th March

    Here’s the weekly update again 🙂

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    Its weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy.



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    Despite volatility throughout the week, Indian market posted fifth consecutive weekly gains, the biggest stretch of weekly gains since June 2009, but closed flat on Friday erasing early gains as traders booked profits in selected stocks due to lack of triggers from global markets and as in line January IIP failed to lift sentiments of the market participants.

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    On the contrary, though the broader index, Nifty closed in green but there was selling in mid cap and Small cap stocks as evident from the fact that BSE Midcap Index was down -0.51 per cent and BSE Small cap Index moved -0.79 per cent lower.

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    On the Global Markets front; except Shanghai Comp., all the Asian markets closed in green.  🙂  European markets too closed in the positive terrain led by banking stocks.

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    Both FTSE 100 and CAC 40 were up by 0.47 per cent and 0.42 per cent respectively. 🙂

    Even mixed economic reports held the US stock market to only modest moves on Friday but gains for the week were strong.

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    Uneven figures on retail sales and consumer confidence gave investors little new insight into the economy. If we talk about Indian economy, some concerns pertaining to further tightening in monetary policy after a partial withdrawal of fiscal stimulus in the budget have emerged in the light of robust manufacturing activity as indicated by IIP numbers.

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    A sustained recovery in India’s industrial output which stood at 16.7% in January on a YoY basis as against 17.6% YoY growth recorded in the month of December and ballooning inflation is expected to force RBI to hike policy rates in its monetary policy review on 20’Th April.

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    The food price index rose 17.81% in the 12 months to 27 February 2010, while the fuel price index was up 11.38%.

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    FIIs net investment in Indian equity markets has crossed $75 billion mark. So far in calendar year 2010, FIIs have made net investments of $2.5 billion, of which $2.3 billion net flow made in last eight trading days since Union Budget 2010 held on February 26, reflecting the strong economic fundamentals of Indian economy, as well as confidence of the foreign investors in the growth and stability of the Indian market.

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    For the forth coming weeks, advance tax payment by the major corporate will give an indication of fourth quarter earnings & would help market to take further direction in the coming week.

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    Overall trend of world markets is up. The fall in the dollar index and rise in Euro from lower levels is giving support to stock markets.

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    Nifty has support between 5030-4950 and Sensex between 16700-16400 levels. The coming week will give more clarity after the FOMC meet.

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    As the rally after the budget had been swift and markets had a five week continuous rally, it seems that our markets are more in a consolidation mode before they take their next direction.

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    Right now, investors are mostly following the “Wait & Watch” strategy and refraining to build heavy position at the time when market is expecting mixed outcome of economic releases and dollar index is oscillating between ranges.

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    Market is waiting for clear direction. Recent downtrend in LME stocks is offset by still-slow pace of demand recovery, and we expect a range trading in base metals complex with downside bias.

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    News that China has started work on its second phase of state strategic oil reserves in the southern province of Guangdong, is limiting the downside in crude oil prices.

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    However, cautious trading is advised here as it appears overbought.

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    Stay Tuned for More updates

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