Posts Tagged ‘harvesting’

Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

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Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC

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Global cotton output may rise over 8%: ICAC


Cotton production world-wide is likely to rise by over 8% in the 2010-11 season on higher output in the US and China following high prices, a global cotton body says.

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The global cotton production in the 2010-11 season (October-September ) is projected at 24.1 million tonnes (mt), up 8.5% from 22.2 mt estimated for the ongoing 2009-10 season.

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Above figures were put forth by the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC).

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According to ICAC, cotton production in China is likely to surge by a million tonne to 7.7 million tonne, while in the US it may climb by one tenth to 3 million tonne.

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However in India, production estimates are not changed much from 2009-10 season, it said.

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ICAC had earlier said that India is estimated to harvest 5.3 mt of fibre in this season.

Currently, harvesting is in progress across the country.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can read about the news of fertiliser ministry urging the finance ministry to release the due subsidy payments and the decline of the natural rubber production rate, last year.

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Fertiliser ministry too seeks subsidy payments:

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The fertilisers ministry has urged the finance ministry to urgently resolve the liquidity problems faced by the country’s fertiliser industry following no payment of subsidy dues by the government since October 2009.

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The demand for subsidy payments comes even as the government is trying to resolve the issue of subsidy to petroleum companies.

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Industry estimates are that subsidy /concession for the October-March 2010 period will be around Rs 30,000 crore plus, bringing up the total subsidy for the fiscal to well over Rs 70,000 crore.

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The centre has allocated only Rs 49,980.25 crore towards fertiliser subsidy for 2009-10 (BE), including carryovers from 2008-09.

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The industry has argued that non-import of urgently needed raw materials and inputs may be jeopardized if the matter of the subsidies is not tackled on priority.

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Making matters worse, according to procedure, the industry cannot expect any further payment until the third supplementary to the Budget due only in end March.

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Rubber Output declines on dry weather:

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Natural rubber production in India, the world’s fourth-biggest producer, dropped 7.3 per cent last year after dry weather lowered yields in the main growing region, the state-owned Rubber Board said.

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The driest monsoon since 1972 lowered latex yield in rubber plantation in the southern Indian state of Kerala, Chandran said.

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Production also dropped because of  intense harvesting and ageing plantations,  Rubber Board Chairman Sajen Peter said on November 4.

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Stockpiles jumped 26 per cent to 261,400 tonnes at the end of December after exports last year slumped to 14,752 tonnes from 77,004 tons in 2008.

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“Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like what is seasonal pattern and reasons for studying seasonal variation.

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Seasonal Index……“Time is Money”


Now we would see the analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.

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The Analysis

Crop prices tend to follow a general seasonal pattern of their own, identifying the major turning points in prices, setting their seasonal low at harvest followed by a post-harvest rally, where the supply of the crop is fixed and consumption gradually takes that supply, causing prices to rise.

However, major market shocks or powerful influencing factors like monsoon, production figures, stock levels & demand may significantly alter seasonal patterns & the prices may experience the special condition.

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This is what happened with the Guar prices.

The ‘Guar’ legume plant is rain-fed monsoon crop.

Monsoon has been the decisive factor for the trend in guar futures.

The sowing period is July and August right after the first shower of the monsoon and the harvesting period is September and November.

Fresh arrivals of the crop from Haryana and Punjab begin immediately after the first week of September and continue till the month of December.

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One example would be redeploying capital in Guar futures in two phases by taking selling positions from April as monsoon sets in – boosting the production levels, and buying in the month of June when the rally begins.

If we follow the price index & compare it with the actual, then it is seen that the prices have followed the path of the seasonal trend many times in this year & have given their best highs from month of June to August.

The seasonality shown in the below graphs depicts that the positive wave has given a satisfying return on investment in both of these commodities, & the strategy adopted of “Sell in April” makes this clear.


Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual

Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual



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Again, the investors taking fresh buying positions from the end of June & holding till the end of the year have had always hard-earned profits.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.

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Food Inflation at 13.7% !!

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

Food inflation at 13.7%

Food inflation at 13.7%

Food inflation at 13.7%:

The food price inflation went up marginally to 13.7% for the week ended October 31 following an increase in vegetable prices, but the arrival of winter crop is expected to bring down the prices soon.

The built up inflation in the current year, or the increase in prices from the beginning of the current fiscal to end of October, has been strong at 14.4% against 7.67% in the corresponding period last year, data released on Wednesday showed.

This rise has been particularly steep in case of pulses (21.2%), vegetables (54.5%) and potatoes at (127.6%), clearly indicating that poorer segment of the population, who would spend a high proportion of their income on food, would have been hit hard by the increase in the prices.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that wheat production in country is set to increase by 2 million Tonne in 2009-10.

Wheat Production to Increase by 2 Million Tonne in 2009-10:

Wheat acreage and production is expected to increase in 2009-10 rabi season.

A large area, which was not sown under rice due to poor monsoon this year, is expected to come under wheat according to scientists.

Area in central and southern belt will increase as unsown area will come under wheat.

Also, in the Indo-Gangetic plain of the Punjab plain, the Haryana plains, and the middle and lower ganga area will increase.

Rains in the month of September have ensured moisture availability for wheat.

However, the late harvesting of paddy (due to increase in temperature in the last week of October) has delayed sowing of wheat which is a big concern for the agriculture scientist and the farmers.

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Wheat Sowing Starts, to Gather Pace After Cane Fields Vacated

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Major Agri-Commodities updates from various parts of the globe.

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated

 

Wheat sowing starts, to gather pace after cane fields vacated:

Sowing of wheat, the biggest foodgrain grown during the rabi season, has started in some parts of the country.

The crop has been planted in around 25.7 lakh hectare till November 5, almost 9.4% less than the same period last year.

Though wheat sowing has got off to a slow start this year, but still there is not much concern as the delay is mainly due to late harvesting of kharif crops.

Sowing of rapeseed has also started on a weak note and till Thursday, around 3.48 lakh hectares of land has been brought under the crop as against 6.65 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that Mentha oil futures have turned weak and Corn and soybeans have fell for the third straight day.

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Mentha oil futures turn weak:

Mentha oil futures prices fell by 0.30 per cent today as traders indulged in profit-booking at higher prices amid fall in demand in the spot market.

Increased arrivals from producing belts in Uttar Pradesh also put pressure on the prices.

At the MCX counter, mentha oil for November contract declined by 0.30 per cent to Rs 533.60 a kg clocking business volume in 201 lots.

Similarly, mentha oil for delivery in December contract eased by 0.26 per cent to Rs 540.20 a kg in business turnover in 53 lots.

Fall in mentha oil prices was mostly due to profit-taking by speculators and subdued trend in spot markets.

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Corn, Soybeans Fall as Warm, Dry Weather May Speed U.S. Harvest:

Corn and soybeans fell for the third straight day on speculation that warm, dry weather will hasten U.S. harvesting, boosting supplies for food and feed producers.

Weather conducive to field work is expected across the Midwest in the next 15 days.

About 49 percent of U.S. soybeans and 75 percent of the corn remained to be gathered as of Nov. 1, according to government estimates.

Grain and oilseed markets also fell on reduced investment demand for raw materials as an inflation hedge.

The rising unemployment rate is not good news for demand.

Corn futures for December delivery fell 9.5 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $3.67 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade.

The decline pared the week’s gain to 0.3 percent, the fourth increase since Oct. 2.

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A monsoon hit to the economy!

A monsoon hit to the economy!

With every passing day, hopes of a normal monsoon are receding.

Along with poor rainfall, hopes of better economic performance in 2009, too, may suffer a washout.The situation is one of concern.

Everyone now has fingers crossed about the next crucial 20 days. Surely, instead of see-sawing between hope and despair each time rains play truant, India ought to deal with the problem of its monsoon-dependence scientifically.

Representing around 17 per cent of India’s GDP, agriculture has averaged nearly 4 per cent growth over five years.The sector was expected to buoy India’s overall growth, hit by the global crisis.

Manufacturing is down. Exports are down. If the monsoon does disappoint, farm production will fall at about the worst possible time.

Nearly 70 per cent of Indians depend on farming. Many handling summer-sown crops like rice, soybean, sugarcane and cotton would be impacted, as also dealers in food and cash crops.

Rural demand has been robust. A poor monsoon could change that. Food prices are already high. They could hit the roof. Within the WPI, the food articles inflation stood at 8.65%.  Inflation for sugar and sugar products stood at a whopping 33.29%.  Poor rainfall will ensure that this problem continues.

Irrespective of how the situation plays out, studies on monsoon patterns indicate a generally erratic and weakening trend.Yet India’s output of water-intensive crops is to grow exponentially in future, implying massive groundwater depletion in wheat and rice-growing states.

Managing water resources – harvesting, extraction, storage or recycling – can’t but be top priority. Woefully inadequate irrigation infrastructure needs overhaul.

India can learn a lot from technologically innovative Israel, a model of efficient water management. Consider drip irrigation, which avoids evaporation by keeping the soil moist underground.

Also, power subsidies encourage waste of water. Their calibrated rollback is required, as also strict use of water meters.

Finally, there’s need to boost manufacturing to meet growth targets and ease dependence on agriculture.

By World Bank estimates, our water demand will outstrip supply by 2020. Staving off such a scenario will require more than propitiating the rain gods.

It is Need of hour that India’s dependence on the monsoons has to be cut down and minimized.