Posts Tagged ‘harvest’

Wheat Rises as Dollar Drop Boosts Outlook for U.S. Export Sales

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.


Wheat Rises as Dollar Drop Boosts Outlook for U.S. Export Sales

Wheat Rises as Dollar Drop Boosts Outlook for U.S. Export Sales:

Wheat rose to a one-week high on speculation that prospects for U.S. exports gained because the dollar declined this month and as demand increased from investors seeking a hedge against inflation.


Wheat prices also got a boost from concern that some U.S. growers were unable to plant winter crops because unusually heavy rainfall delayed the soybean harvest and hindered access to the fields.


U.S. shipments have lagged behind the year-earlier pace because of rising world stockpiles and because competing suppliers offered grain at lower prices.


Wheat also gained as speculative investors including index- and hedge-fund managers bought commodity futures that they deem to be undervalued, including wheat.




In Other major Commodity Update, there is information about Soybean Prices rising on surging Chinese demand for U.S. Supplies.




Soybean Prices Rise on Surging Chinese Demand for U.S. Supplies:

Soybean prices rose to a five-month high on surging demand for animal feed and cooking oil made from oilseeds shipped by the U.S., the world’s biggest producer and exporter.


From Sept. 1 to Nov. 19, U.S. export sales of soybeans rose 58 percent to 27.1 million metric tons (995.4 million bushels) from a year earlier, and China accounted for 62 percent of the total, government data show.


A drought this year in Brazil and Argentina, the largest shippers of feed made from the oilseed, boosted consumption of U.S. supplies.


U.S. sales of soybean meal from Oct. 1 to Nov. 19 surged 72 percent to 4.7 million tons from a year earlier, Department of Agriculture figures show.


Shipments of soybean oil have tripled.




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“Seasonal Index – “Time is Money” Part 2

Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, Seasonal Index……“Time is Money” Part 1

In previous Blog, we had touched upon the aspect like what is seasonal pattern and reasons for studying seasonal variation.


Seasonal Index……“Time is Money”

Now we would see the analysis part of seasonal patterns in predicting the future prices of the commodity.


The Analysis

Crop prices tend to follow a general seasonal pattern of their own, identifying the major turning points in prices, setting their seasonal low at harvest followed by a post-harvest rally, where the supply of the crop is fixed and consumption gradually takes that supply, causing prices to rise.

However, major market shocks or powerful influencing factors like monsoon, production figures, stock levels & demand may significantly alter seasonal patterns & the prices may experience the special condition.


This is what happened with the Guar prices.

The ‘Guar’ legume plant is rain-fed monsoon crop.

Monsoon has been the decisive factor for the trend in guar futures.

The sowing period is July and August right after the first shower of the monsoon and the harvesting period is September and November.

Fresh arrivals of the crop from Haryana and Punjab begin immediately after the first week of September and continue till the month of December.


One example would be redeploying capital in Guar futures in two phases by taking selling positions from April as monsoon sets in – boosting the production levels, and buying in the month of June when the rally begins.

If we follow the price index & compare it with the actual, then it is seen that the prices have followed the path of the seasonal trend many times in this year & have given their best highs from month of June to August.

The seasonality shown in the below graphs depicts that the positive wave has given a satisfying return on investment in both of these commodities, & the strategy adopted of “Sell in April” makes this clear.

Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual

Guar Seed Seasonal Index vs Actual


Again, the investors taking fresh buying positions from the end of June & holding till the end of the year have had always hard-earned profits.


Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would read about that how an annual average method can be used to generate a seasonal pattern in predicting the future prices of the commodity and seasonal pattern in the year 2009.


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Rabi Crops Get a Lifeline on Late Rains :)

Lets Get to know of the latest Agri updates in the country 😀


Rabi Crops Get a Lifeline on Late Rains:

Considering cumulative rainfall from June to September, expected retention of moisture in soil between October and December, and recharge in the ground water level, the agriculture ministry expects no major dip in the coverage of food crops in the coming rabi season.


As for other rabi crops in 2009, the ministry sets the rice production target at 14.5 mt, for jowar at 3.9 mt and barley at 1.6 mt, which are almost similar to the last year’s level.

According to the fourth round of estimate by the ministry, rice production in the last rabi season was 14.6 mt, barley 1.5 mt and jowar 4.2 mt.


At the same time, it has asked all wheat growing states to ensure that sowing of wheat is completed by the end of November and to see that maximum areas are covered with high yielding and high temperature tolerant varieties.

In Other major Agri Updates we can see that Monsoon has withdrawn and has left 22% shortfall in the country.

An erratic monsoon, which left the country 22 per cent short of normal seasonal rainfall and caused concern about the kharif harvest, has finally begun to withdraw, almost three weeks later than normal.


The total monsoon rainfall this year till September 23 was estimated by the IMD at 66.83 cm, about 22 per cent below the normal level of 85.87 cm for the period.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the withdrawal line today passed through Ganganagar, Churu, Jodhpur and Barmer in Rajasthan.

However, many other parts of the country will still continue to get rain.

The maximum deficiency is in the north-west (34 per cent), followed by the north-east (25 per cent), central India (19 per cent) and southern peninsula (8 per cent).

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