JEERA………THE FLAVORING AGENT

Jeera is a flavoring agent of Indian food as well as commodity market. In India, Jeera is grown during the rabi season. India is largest producer, consumer and exporter of jeera. The country produces around 2 lakh tonnes of jeera. It contributes about 70% in the total world production. Rajasthan and Gujarat contribute more than 90% of the total production.

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Production Scenario in India

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In the current season year 2009-10, Jeera production is expected higher by 10-15% as compared to last year. India, world’s largest jeera producer, is expected to have a production of about 27 lakh bags (of 60 kgs) in the current season year 2009-10. In India, arrival starts in February. The peak arrival season runs from March to April and continues till early May. Currently the daily arrivals are around 24000-27000 bags. So prices are trading with downtrend bias.

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Arrivals Pattern in Unjha Market (Daily average arrivals)

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February to April – 25,000 t o 35,000 bags

May to August – 4,000 to 8,000 bags

September to November – 6,000 to 8,000 bags

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Domestic Scenario

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Despite a bumper yield in the current season year 2009-10, jeera prices are expected to go up by Diwali due to stronger domestic and overseas demand over next few months and lower carryover stocks than last year. Carry-forward stocks are estimated to be around 30000 tonnes. After end of April and early May the arrival would s l o w d o w n .

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H o w e v e r , currently the daily arrival s have fallen from 30,000 bags a week back to 20,000 to 22,000 bags. Currently jeera prices are ruling in the range of Rs 11000-12000 but due to steep fall in the carryover stocks, higher domestic consumption and increased buying by traders for export, which would push prices higher from coming month. Jeera futures are trading in contango. The most active NCDEX April contract Jeera futures on NCDEX are trading in the range 11200-11400 and May futures quoting above Rs 11600.

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International Scenario

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Jeera prices also depend on the crop situation in Turkey, Iran and Syria. After India, Syria is the next biggest producer with an average production of 30, 000 tonnes. These countries influence the world jeera prices significantly. Countries like Turkey and Syria are expected to harvest their crop only by July and export demand would likely to shift to Turkey and Syria due to their competitive lower prices in world market. This may affect the movement of jeera prices at some content.

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Export of Jeera

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India exports about 140 countries including Singapore, Dubai, the US and Brazil. Last year, about five lakh bags were exported. Indian exports of Jeera declining on account of stiff competition from Turkey, Syria and Iran. They are capturing our export market by offering Jeera at lower prices and bulk of their production is reserved for export purpose. Jeera exports are expected to 14% decline to 42500 ton in April-February 2009-10 as compared to 49500 ton in 2008-09. In value term, it is expected to 8 % decline to Rs 47001.25 lacs in April-February 2009-10 as compared to Rs 51356.33 lacs ton in 2008-09.

Milk, Fruits and Pulses Raised Food Inflation to 17.70%

Higher prices of milk, fruits and pulses raised food inflation to 17.70% for the week ended March 27.

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This was due to the expectations that RBI may further tighten rates in its annual monetary policy on April 20.

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Meanwhile, food inflation in the previous week stood at 16.35%.

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The overall inflation for March is likely to cross the double digit mark.

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This is with prices of vital items increasing and fears of food inflation spreading to manufactured goods.

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The overall inflation, which includes variation in prices of food and non-food items, was 9.89 per cent in February.

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On an annual basis, pulses became dearer by 32.60 per cent, milk by 21.12 per cent, fruits 14.95 and wheat by 13.34 per cent.

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Moreover, on a weekly basis, the index for food articles rose by 0.9 per cent as fish marine, milk, fruits, masur and vegetables became costlier.

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In order to rein in inflation, the PM is holding a meeting of the core committee of Chief Ministers with representations from 10 states and senior Cabinet ministers.

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The core group of chief ministers comprises Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Punjab, Gujarat, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

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Besides CMs, the other members of the committee are Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Food and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

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General inflation has already surpassed RBI”s March end projection of 8.5 per cent.

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On the other hand, RBI governor D Subbarao had also said that the apex bank will carry on its exit from monetary stimulus policy to check high inflation and ensure sustainable growth.

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Earlier, according to the government data, released yesterday states the India”s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 14.86 % in the month of February 2010 as against a year ago, which is lower than January”s annual growth of 16.22 %.

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During the month of February 2010, the CPI for Industrial Workers reduced by 2 points to 170.

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Also, India”s annual wholesale inflation rose to 9.89 % in February 2010 as compared to an increase of 8.56 % in January 2010 and 3.50 % against a year ago.

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The wholesale price inflation is more closely watched in India because it covers a higher number of products.

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The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rate is rising quite sharply ever since it came out of the negative territory in September 2009.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates

India’s Wealth Lies in Its Cities

It was once believed that India lives in its villages.

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Now it is clear that India’s wealth lies in its cities, or more specifically, Mumbai.

 

India's Wealth Lies in Its Cities

A study conducted by Delhi-based SMC Global classified companies geographically on the location of their registered offices.

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It reveals that Mumbai-registered companies account for 36.28% of the total BSE 500 market cap.

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Some of the prominent names based out of Mumbai are Reliance Industries, L&T, HDFC and SBI.

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Also, out of the market capitalisation ascribed to Maharashtra which has the highest market capitalization among the states — more than 90% originates from Mumbai.

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In fact, Mumbai and six other cities account for 85.71% of the total market capitalisation of BSE 500.

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With Delhi NCR (National Capital Region, which includes satellite cities such as Gurgaon and Noida along with the capital) contributing 27.82%.

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After the financial and political capitals, state capitals take the fore.

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Bangalore lays claim to 7.10%,

Hyderabad to 4.86% and Kolkata accounts for 3.83%,

while Ahmedabad and Chennai account for 3.35% and 2.47%, respectively.

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On a state-wide basis, five states in combination with Delhi NCR and Maharashtra account for 94.20% of the total market cap.

A total of 66.17% of the index’s market cap can be traced to Maharashtra and Delhi NCR.

While the latter accounts for 38.35%, Delhi accounts 27.82%.

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Karnataka accounts for 7.74%, Gujarat, 7.48%, Andhra Pradesh is at 4.95% and Tamil Nadu at 4.02%, while Bengal has 3.83%.

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Though the big Indian companies have a pan-India presence with factories or plants located across the country, they tend to have registered offices in metros.

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That is because of the ease of operations and presence of other corporate houses, suggested the study.

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“The traditional metro cities have accumulation advantage.

Its ultimately the money which brings in more money.

As the Indian economy keeps evolving, tier-2 and tier-3 cities may catchup gradually, to bring-in more equitable distribution of wealth across the country.”

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…said Jagannadham Thunuguntla, equity head at SMC Capitals.

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CORN………. “The Un-discovered Legend” Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with another write up on “Commodity Corner Series”.

Here we would touch upon the importance of Maize crop in Indian commodity market and its relevance in the context of Indian Scenario 🙂

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CORN………. “The Un-discovered Legend”

Maize, also known as corn, is a cereal which is an important crop after rice and wheat.

The domestication of maize has been dated back as far back as 12,000 years ago. Today, maize is widely cultivated throughout the world, in a greater size with top producing countries like United States, China, Brazil, France, Indonesia, India and South Africa.

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Indian Scenario:

Andhra Pradesh is now the largest producer contributing around 21% of annual maize production.

India ‘s area harvested of maize and yield have risen by mainly on account of rising production of single cross hybrids seeds, its demand and increasing acceptability among farmers.

In India, its cultivation extends from the hot arid plains of Rajasthan and Gujarat to the wet hills of Assam and Bengal.

There are three distinct seasons for the cultivation of maize:

the main season is kharif;

next is Rabi in Peninsular India and Bihar and

in spring in northern India.

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Normally, higher yields have been recorded in the rabi and spring crops.

Over 85 per cent of the maize acreage is sown under rain-fed conditions during the monsoon when over 80 per cent of the annual rainfall is received.

However, this year due to the erratic monsoon production has been affected, as a result of which maize prices have been in uptrend since the withdrawal of monsoon from the country.

During 2008-9, Indian exported 3 million tonnes of maize and 12,000 tonnes of maize seed worth of Rs 2,400 crore and Rs 2,000 crore respectively.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

In next blog we would touch upon the issues like Potential source of demand for Maize crop, Industrial Demand and PVO (Price-volume-open Interest) of MAize crops.

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Mobile Number Portability Not Before Dec 31!

The Government of India extended to December 31 implementation of mobile number portability, a facility allowing subscribers to retain their numbers even after changing service providers.

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However, the 100-day delay in the planned implementation of the MNP is credited to operators‘ inability to upgrade their network.

On top of that the delay on part of regulator TRAI to come out with tariff for the service.

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On the other hand, this required customization and upgradation of the existing network to be capable of providing the MNP service while certain technical and commercial issues related to it are also being resolved.

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Additionally, it is said that it requires considerable time and effort hence it has been decided by the Department of Telecom to extend the date of implementation of MNP in Metro Category A service areas to December 31, 2009 in the first phase.

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Moreover, it is said that the service is expected to be available by end of 2009 to begin with in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

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The Department of Telecommunications had issued guidelines for its implementation in the country in August last year.

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