Posts Tagged ‘gold’

Ace Derivatives & Commodity Exchange

Ace Derivatives & Commodity Exchange with over five decades of impeccable experience in commodity trading, has recently transformed itself and established an online multi-commodity platform with a pan-India presence. Kotak Group is the anchor investor in ACE Commodity Exchange with a 51 per cent stake, while Haryana”s Hafed has a 15 per cent interest and banks like Bank of Baroda, Union Bank and
Corporation Bank have an over 14 per cent stake. The remaining equity is held by Ahmedabad Commodity Exchange members.

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Products offered

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Ace offers futures trading the following commodity groups:

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Bullions: Gold, Silver

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Energy: Crude oil, Natural Gas

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Agri

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•Castor Seed (Ex-Warehouse Ahmedabad)

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•Mustard Seed (Ex-Warehouse Jaipur-inclusive of all taxes but exclusive of Sales tax/ VAT)

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•Soybean Ex-Warehouse Indore -inclusive of all taxes but exclusive of Sales tax/VAT)

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•Refined Soy Oil (Ex-Tank Indore-Inclusive of all Taxes and Levies)

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•Pulses

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•Chana

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•Spices

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•Turmeric

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The Kotak-anchored exchange started futures trading in soybean, soyoil, rape/mustard seed, chana and castor seed. With the launch, the first set of contracts will be available for trade for delivery on November 20, December 20 and January 20.

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The lot size of trading is fixed at 10 tonnes of each contract. According to the exchange data, the castor seed contract for December-expiry opened at `3,442 a quintal, chana at `2,440 a quintal, soyabean at `2,244 a quintal, mustard seed at `573 for every 20 kg and refined soy oil at`545.90 for every 10 kg.

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Trade Timings:

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Agri: 10:00 a.m. to 05:00 p.m. (Monday to Friday)

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10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Saturday)

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Bullion/Metals: 10:00 a.m. to 11.30 p.m. (Monday to Friday)

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10:00 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. (Saturday)

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Risk Management

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The Exchange assumes the counter party risk by guaranteeing trade settlement. The Risk Management framework of the Exchange ensures timely settlement.

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More hands working on…..

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Haryana State Cooperative Supply and Marketing Federation (Hafed) is planning to set up spot exchanges of the recently launched Ace Derivatives and Commodity Exchange (ACE) in mandis soon. The association of Hafed with the ACE will help it in playing the role of an aggregator and a risk manager on behalf of thousands of farmers, who will be motivated to become participants of the ACE in the coming decade.

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In addition to its convenient trading platform, Ace provides a robust clearing & settlement infrastructure that supports the complete process of trade intermediation – including registration of trades, settlement of contracts and mitigation of counter party risk; giving traders the peace of mind in times of increased market volatility.

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SHIFT IN GOLD DEMAND: PERFORMANCE OF ETFs

Gold’s appeal as an alternative investment option remains high. Historically equities have performed better than gold barring certain minor aberrations here and there. However, asset allocation is an important aspect of any investment strategy. By balancing asset classes of different correlations, investors hope to maximize returns and minimize risk. While many investors may believe that their portfolios are adequately diversified, they typically contain only three asset classes – stocks, bonds/fixed income instruments and cash. To counter adverse movements in a particular asset or asset class, many investors now strive to achieve more effective diversification in their portfolios by incorporating alternative investments such as commodities. While gold has shown strong returns over recent years, its most valuable contribution to a portfolio lies in the fact that it is not correlated with most other assets. This is because the gold price is not driven by the same factors that drive the performance of other assets. Demand for gold may continue to rise as investors diversify their portfolio with an asset that is not correlated with the equity markets. In the melt down seen in 2008-09, gold was not correlated with the other assets and hence saved.

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Gold’s price action in the past few months has frustrated many traders. High volatility in prices created much risk for the investors as well as for intra day traders. At this time ETFs plays a major role as Gold ETFs provides investors a means of participating in the gold bullion market without the necessity of taking physical delivery of gold, and to buy and sell that participation through the trading of a security on stock exchange. Gold ETF would be a passive investment; so, when gold prices move up, the ETF appreciates and when gold prices move down, the ETF loses value. Each unit is approximately equal to price of 1 gram gold. But, there are Gold ETFs which also provide a unit which is approximately equal to the price of ½ gram of gold.

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Gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) serve several functions in both good times and bad. These days, we’re seeing it primarily workingas a safe haven for investors. According to the World Gold Council’s (WGC) latest Gold Investment Digest (GID), the quarter Q2 2010 recorded significant net inflows into various gold backed investment vehicles, as investors sought to harness gold’s investment benefits at a time of weakness and pronounced volatility in other asset classes. Investors bought 273.8 net tonnes of gold via exchange traded funds (ETFs) in Q2 2010. This represents the second largest quarterly inflow on record with the total amount of gold held in the ETFs monitored by WGC to over 2,000 tonnes (worth US$81.6 billion).

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Till now India has been the biggest consumer of gold but gold exchange traded funds (ETFs) were not much popular in India. However, things are changing fast inIndia. With increasing popularity more and more people are now putting their money on Gold ETFs. As a sign of this, India’s gold collection under exchange-traded funds rose 76 per cent in June 2010 from a year ago to 10.453 tonnes. There has been an increase of customers by 70-80 per cent (on year). Most of the participation  was from high net worth individuals and other retail investors. The gold ETFs, instruments that trade like shares and are backed by physical gold holdings, are more than three year old and may get crowded with some other funds planning their entry.

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Over the past nine years, gold has managed to post successive increases in its annual average price, navigating the choppiest of waters.

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From the above mentioned chart it is clearly visible that gold ETF’s has given significant return on yearly basis.GOLDBEES does the best and it does quite well in volumes also, thatis due to the fact that its expenses are lower than the competitors. More competition is always good for the customer, but unless someone comes up with an ETF with expenses lower than GOLDBEES, we can imagine GOLDBEES to be the best on this chart.

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ETF have shown consistent growth in volumes both in terms of number of trade and turnover. Based on the underlying asset different types of ETFs have been identified. The turnover and price of each class of ETF listed on NSE is given below.

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Advantages of Investing in Gold ETFs

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•Potentially cheaper to have price exposure to gold price as compared to other available avenues.

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•Quick and convenient dealing through demat account.

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•No storage and security issue for investors.

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•Transparent pricing.

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•Taxation of Mutual Fund.

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•Can be traded on stock exchange like buying / selling a stock.

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•Ideal for retail investor as minimum lot size to trade is one unit on secondary market.

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•NAV of a unit tracks price of approximately ½ or 1 gram of gold.

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The above mentioned benefits make gold ETFs much better investment avenue for the investors rather than investing in gold through any other source. However as we are seeing that strong investment demand for gold is quite visible, with investors viewing gold, a real asset and as a hedge against medium-term inflationary pressures and potential US dollar weakness. While also providing important diversification benefits, investors may continue to look to gold as a safe haven asset and an alternative currency in the face of volatile currency markets in coming period. Also the rising awareness among Indian investor regarding investment through gold ETFs may boost the demand in near future.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 11th – 15th October

International gold hit yet another new high and tested $1364 as the US currency slumped to fresh 15-and-a-half year lows against the Japanese Yen. The euro and British pound both neared 8-month highs vs. the dollar after their central banks failed to cut rates or expand their quantitative easing. The shiny metal continued breaching new high records by taking advantageof concerns surrounding global recovery which raise speculations that central banks will add tostimulus to bolster growth. This time domestic gold and silver also rose to their fresh highs on MCX. Base metal prices traded on the mixed note with lead prices ending in red while copper along with aluminium and nickel prices managing to end in the green territory.

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The base metal prices remained volatile mainly due to weakness in the dollar index and profit taking at highlevels. In energy counter crude oil remained volatile as prices got support by a weaker dollar and investors’ demand for higher-yielding assets. Prices were also under pinned by the drop in motor gasoline and distillates inventories off setting the buildup in crude inventories.Regarding agro commodities, oil seeds and edible oil counter revived on some bargain buying atlower level amid falling dollar index. Strong buying by soyabean millers together with rising soyameal export also encouraged buying in both spot and future market. Fresh arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan washed out the profit of guargum and guarseed futures. Prices were also discouraged by strong production estimates of guarseed in the current year.

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Despite tight supply position against strong demand pepper futures closed the week on negative note on profit booking. Turmeric rose on improved demand. Chilli was sideways with upside bias on mixed fundamentals while jeera and cardamom moved southward. Receding stocks in major mandies accompanied with strong export demand by traders and exporters gave terrific rise tothe mentha prices. Even in future market it breached the level of 950 on MCX. Mint exports inApril- August, 2010 surged by 2 percent to `723.95 lacs against 595.57 lacs reported last year inthe same period. Chana appeared shy to breach the resistance of 2300 and it closed down on profit booking at higher levels.

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SILVER……GROWING AVENUE OF INVESTMENT

Recently silver, known as poor’s gold, is gaining not only against the dollar and other old world currencies but also outperforming gold. Due to high prices gold is loosing its own attraction from common man and importance of silver as precious metals is gaining momentum. The declining trend of gold/silver ratio indicate that silver become better destination for investment. Like gold, silver has retained rally momentum due to recent poor economic data that has caused investors to purchase Silver as a “safe haven” alternative investment. The pickup of silver industrial demand due to the emergence and growth of a number of new end uses, and continued strong investment demand is pushing silver prices sharply higher.

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Like all metals, London Bullion Market is the global hub for silver trading, while the New York’s Comex Futures dominate the solver fund activity. The world’s largest silver backed exchange-traded fund, the i Shares Silver Trust, said its holdings rose to 9,280.40 tonnes by Sept. 1 from 9,151.03 tonnes on August 5.

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Global demand- supply of silver According to World Silver Survey 2010 , global silver mine production rose last year, by almost 4%, its seventh straight annual increase to reach a record high of 22,072 ton.Peru is the world’s largest silver producing country followed by Mexico, China, Australia and Bolivia. GFMS is forecasting a further mine production rise of 3 per cent this year.

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According to GFMS, In the last ten years, the world jewellery demand was down 8 per cent and silverware as much as 38 per cent. And because of technology changes silver use in photography sector had suffered a major fall of 62 per cent. But as strengthening of belief in silver as a precious metal is the 145 per cent demand gain since 2000. The industrial application of silver is almost 48 per cent of total silver use.

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Indian demand- supply of silver Though India is generally believed to have a great appetite for gold, Indians also love to possess silver in their homes for jewellery. India is voluminous importer of silver. Of the 4,000 tonnes that India used to import annually, around 2,600 tonnes was used to make jewellery and ornaments. MMTC is the largest importer of gold in the country. The firm’s silver imports fell by more than 44% in the fiscal year to end March 2010, as high prices dented demand. More than 60% of India’s silver demand comes from farmers.

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Last year silver demand dipped because the country experienced one of the worst monsoon seasons in over four decades. However, with much better monsoon this year, the situation is set to reverse and India’s appetite for silver has also been boosted because gold has become too expensive at current prices. According to official data, India’s silver imports in the first six months of 2010 are up 579%.

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From April this year, India has also started hallmarking of the white precious metal to ensure purity. With increasing amounts of impurities in jewellery being sold across the country, public sector trading major, Minerals and Metals Trading Corporation (MMTC) is banking on its branded jewellery, silverware gift items and coins to push up its market share.

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Like gold, silver has not enjoyed equal recognition from hedge funds, pension and retirement funds, insurance companies, and sovereign wealth funds– but this is likely to change as fund managers recognize silver’s relative value and simply wish to diversify their precious metals exposure.

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Outlook

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Good monsoon, high gold prices and global trends may help silver outperform the yellow metal in India. Better harvesting will underpin demand from the farming community this year. Since gold prices are trading over `19,000 per 10 gm, many rural families are now switching to silver.The weakening of rupee also supporting the prices.

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More and more people here are using silver as a speculative commodity play as many others are looking at it as a safe haven asset. The overall market sentiment is bullish for silver. So it could be a more decisive silver price breakout before the year ends to touch the level of `33500.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 13th – 17th September 2010

Silver along with gold once again shoot up last week as international prices tested $20 and $1255 respectively on COMEX division. Each time a rise in gold hits the headlines, it steals the limelight from silver. But this time silver has not only followed rallies in gold, but usually out performed, as can be seen in a fall in the gold/silver ratio. Prices went towards north last week as global stocks tumbled and the euro slipped on renewed fears about the health of the global economy.

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Base metals witnessed see saw movements as highly volatile currency market is rolling the prices in both direction. However, bias remained down side as fresh concerns about the health of the European banking sector fed a wave of risk reduction in the broader market and helped drag red metal (copper) prices away from four-month highs. Energy counter also remained under pressure as investor’s eye U.S economic strength and demand on fuel, while the dollar gains against a basket of foreign currencies amid the jittery sentiment. In other related news the dull hurricane season also limiting the upside in prices. The U.S. National Hurricane Center was monitoring three tropical systems in the Atlantic basin, one approaching the Caribbean Sea and two near Africa’s west coast. The NHC said cloudiness and showers over the Leeward Islands and northeastern Caribbean Sea were associated with Gaston’s remnants, but the system had just a 20 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone.

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Despite holiday’s shortened week, agro commodities witnessed active trading. After a noteworthy decline, oil seeds and edible oil counter was somehow able to cap the downside on the news of better soyameal export amid short covering in overseas market. Crude palm oil was also trading up. On the other hand upside was limited on the absence of fresh demand.

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Favourable weather and better outlook of crop shed the gain of wheat futures. Northward journey of maize futures supported by multi month’s higher prices in CBOT surprised the market players. Spices counter traded with downside bias moreover. Chilli, jeera, turmeric and cardamom were down on lower offtake in physical market. Turmeric futures were in complete grip of bears on lower demand in spot market. It touched multi week lows on NCDEX as well. It was only pepper in spices counter which propped up on fresh buying. Mixed sentiment in guar compelled guarseed to trade in slim spread whereas guargum was rangebound with upside bias.

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Chana continued to witness downtrend following lower demand in the domestic market.

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GOLD SILVER RATIO………. “PLAY SAFE”

If you are concerned about deflation, devaluation, global economies downturn, currency replacement, etc. – this tool of Gold/Silver ratio (GSR) will probably make sense to you. And that’s because precious metals have a proven record of holding their value in times of economic traumas..

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Note: For calculating the ratio, divide the price of gold by the price of silver.

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IMPLICITY

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The rate effectively measures how much silver one would have to sell at any given time in order to purchase one troy ounce of gold, or alternatively, how much silver one could buy if one were to sell one troy ounce of gold. Implicitly, the higher the rate the stronger the comparative performance of gold, effectively its increased purchasing power of silver. Likewise, a lower GSR signals comparative weakness in gold (or strength in silver) and the lack of purchasing power for the yellow metal.

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The GSR also offers us an insight into how the comparative values of the two metals shift during times of recession and economic recovery. Looking at previous global recessions over the past twenty years, the GSR has rallied during the downturn and seen its apex as the global economy began to recover.

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Historically speaking, the ratio has averaged at 58.0 & during the height of the economic crisis in late 2008; the ratio peaked at its highest level in four years at 78.0. Looking at this level compared with just about every historical average, the rate was significantly overbought gold, as a flight to safety across the markets pushed the yellow metal to outstrip its industrious counterpart.

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ASSESSING THE POTENTIAL

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Analyzing the data, it’s clearly noticeable that the lower the ratio/number, the more expensive silver is, as compared to gold. Conversely the higher the ratio/number, the cheaper silver is as compared to gold. So how can we use the rate to assess potential future moves across the precious metals complex? Firstly, by definition, as the global economy recovers and broader m a r k e t s b e g i n t o stabilize, risk appetite will return back to the market. As the necessity for a safe-haven reseeds, capital will naturally begin to flow away from gold and into the higher volatility securities.

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Interestingly this is likely to also involve some of these funds moving from gold into silver, which has always been a higher beta metal; that is to say has a higher volatility and higher price elasticity than the precious metals complex as a whole.

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A rising GSR in a rising Gold and Silver Environment means that that a premium is being placed on safety / risk aversion.

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Wrap-Up

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Silver often tracks the gold price due to store of value demands, although the ratio can vary. As a final point, it is important to note that this assessment of the ratio does not necessarily imply that gold prices will fall and silver prices will climb. This may mean silver will climb at a higher rate than gold does over the coming year, or it may mean silver remains steady while gold slides back towards previous ranges. Either way, when considering if or where to invest in the precious metals complex, this traditional.

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Weekly Update 3rd- 7th May 2010

The week started on a positive note on the back of good global tidings. Markets worldwide have gained after Greece decided to tap into the EU- IMF loan, but the rally could not be sustained and fell like nine pins as heightened sovereign debt troubles in Europe sent global markets in a bit of a tizzy.

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On the global front, FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent as the economy is still seeing high unemployment, modest income growth, employers reluctance to add to payrolls & bank lending contraction. It said that it would continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and would employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability. Japan saw unemployment rate climbing to five percent indicating job rebound may moderate. Europe equity markets fell after Standard & Poor’s downgraded three Eurozone members.

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Investors withdrew money from the Europe equity funds & debt funds saw net inflow. Closer home too, markets witnessed volatility as traders rolled over their positions in the derivatives segment from the April 2010 series to the May 2010 series. On the flip side the Q4 March 2010 corporate earnings announced so far have been good with net profit of a total of 441 companies rose 28.70% to Rs 29125 crore on 36.40% rise in sales to Rs 249959 crore in the quarter ended March 2010 over the quarter ended March 2009. The IMF is optimistic about the growth of Indian Economy. It has estimated that India’s $1.2 trillion economy will expand 8.8% this year and 8.4% next year, higher than it projected in January. While RBI expects India’s economy to expand 8% in the year ending March 2011 (FY 2011) with an upward bias expecting normal monsoon this year and sustenance of good performance of the industrial and services sectors on the back of rising domestic and external demand. The IMD has predicted normal monsoons in 2010 at 98% of Long Period Average subject to an error of (+/- 5%). Besides the passing of the Finance Bill 2010 by FM on Thursday with some minor changes in tax proposals may boost sentiment as the government has pledged to the path of fiscal consolidation rather than political opportunism.

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Overall the world markets were quite volatile in the week gone by with wild swings on both sides. Shanghai and Hang Seng could not recover from the fall though other markets recovered. Base metals also took a sharp correction. The strength in the stock markets is there more in cash stocks rather than front line heavy weight index stocks. Nifty has support between 5200-5150 levels & Sensex between 17400-17300 levels.

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Recent moves in commodities are showing that they are moving in different directions. It is indicating the state of uncertainty, where commodities are moving on their own fundamentals. Safe haven buying may keep gold in upper range. While after a steep fall, base metals may try to trade in a range.

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Approaching summer demand amid availability of ample crude stocks can keep crude oil in a range. Some agro commodities viz., pepper, jeera, chilli, cardamom, mentha etc., may surge on good overseas as well as domestic demand.