Posts Tagged ‘GOI’

Cashew Kernel Exports Decline to 1,07,496 Metric Tonnes

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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Cashew Kernel Exports Decline to 1,07,496 Metric Tonnes

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Cashew kernel exports decline 4% in 2009

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India’s cashew kernel exports have showed an overall drop of a marginal 4 per cent to 1,07,496 metric tonnes during the calendar year 2009 compared to the previous year.

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During the period January to December 2009, the value of kernel exports was marginally lower by 2.2 per cent to Rs 2,869 crore as against the year ago period.

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The drop in exports was mainly attributed to a sharp rise in domestic consumption.

The exporters had to draw down to meet the domestic demand than export commitments.

The local consumption is pegged at around 1,30,000 tonnes for the year.

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According to Kochi based Cashew Export Promotion Council of India (CEPCI), the unit value realization was up by 2 per cent to Rs 266.87 per kg in the export market during 2009.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we have news on the Govt Plans to buy 280 lakh tone of rice for central pool.

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Govt plans to buy 2.8 cr tonne of rice for central pool

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The government hopes to buy 280 lakh tonne of rice for the Central Pool during the ongoing 2009-10 marketing season, more than earlier target of 260 lakh tonne, even as the grain production this year is expected to be lower by 13 million tonne.

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According to the latest official data, total rice purchases by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and state agencies stand at 178.30 lakh tonne as on Thursday, slightly below 182 lakh tonne procured in the same period of the 2008-09 season.

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The country’s rice production from the current Kharif season is estimated to be lower at 71.45 million tonne, compared with 84.58 million tonne in the last year season.

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Interest Rate Futures Section – Final Part :)

Interest Rate Futures Section Final Part

Interest Rate Futures Section Final Part

Hello Friends, we are here with the Final Part of our Interest Rate Futures educational section.
We would touch upon the benefits of the Interest Rate Futures and the future scenario related to it.

Here we go :

Key benefits of Interest Rate Futures:

Directional trading

As there is an inverse relationship between interest rate movement and underlying bond prices, so if one has strong view that the interest rates will rise in near future then he can take short position in IRF contracts and can be benefited from the falling futures bond prices.

Hedging portfolio

The holders of the GOI securities are exposed to risk of rising interest rates which in turn results in the reduction in the value of the portfolio.

So in order to protect against a fall in the value of the portfolio they can take short position in IRF.

Calendar spread trading

This spread is also known as an inter-delivery spread.

It is the simultaneous purchase of one delivery month of a given futures contract and the sale of another delivery month of the same underlying on the same exchange.

For example:

Buying a September 09 and simultaneously selling a December 09 contract.
A market participant can profit as the price difference between the two contracts widens.

The either case can also be possible.

Reduce the duration of portfolio:

Bonds with longer maturities are more sensitive to interest rate changes, and bond portfolio with longer duration will be more exposed to the vulnerability of the movement in interest rate.

So portfolio manager who is concerned about the rise in the short term interest rate risk would like to reduce the duration of the portfolio.

By entering into the IRF contract to NSE, the portfolio manager can reduce duration of the portfolio.

Arbitraging between cash and futures market:

Arbitrage is the price difference between the bond prices in underlying bond market and IRF contract without any view about the interest rate movement.

One can earn the risk-less profit from realizing arbitrage opportunity and entering into the IRF contract traded on NSE by initiating cash and carry trade.

Responses After launch:

After the launch of currency futures in August 2008, Interest-rate futures are the first major product to be introduced in India.

The interest rate futures began on August 31,2009 clocking trading volumes of Rs 276 crore in their first day of trade.

Market participants responded passionately to the product launch on the first day.

In around five hours of trading time available after inauguration, 1,475 trades were recorded resulting in 14,559 contracts being traded at a total value of Rs 267.31 crore.

In the beginning only two quarters has been introduced out of four, among which December 2009 was the most active with 13,789 contracts which has been traded actively.

There are nearly 638 members registered for this new product, out of which 21 are banks and there contribution to the total gross volume was 32.48 percent.

Future scenario:

BSE had received regulatory approval for interest rates futures and would launch in 8-10 weeks.

The Multi Commodity Exchange’s foreign exchange derivatives bourse has sought permission to launch trade in interest rate futures.

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INTEREST RATE FUTURES – Part 2

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog on interest rates futures where we touched upon the topic of interest rates future and what is it exactly.

Now we would understand that why is there need for interst rate futures and many more related aspects in this regard.

Here we go :

Why Interest rate futures?

Why Interest rate futures?

Why Interest rate futures?

The risk associated with the interest rate is uncertain and it never has been constant in the past, infact it would not remain constant in future also.

The volatility of interest rates has increased manifold in the last couple of years and recorded 17.40% in 2008 as compared to 8.51% in 2007.

This high fluctuation in volatility increases risk and requires tools to manage those risks.

Interest rate futures are the product for managing such interest rate risk.

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Backbone of Interest Rate Future:

NSE, India’s largest stock exchange, began interest rate futures and offers the same reliable features as it provide to its other products with the following advantages:

β€’Standardization and flexibility

β€’Price transparency and liquidity

β€’Leverage effect due to a wider collateral management

β€’Advance trading software and technological edge

β€’Centralized clearing supported by guaranteed settlement

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Who can be a part of it?

The major market participants of interest rate futures are

β€’Banks and Primary Dealers

β€’ Mutual Funds and Insurance Companies

β€’ Corporate Houses and Financial Institutions,

β€’FIIs and NRIs

β€’ Member Brokers and Retail Investors.

In Final part of this topic (which we would cover in our next blog), we would throw light on the benefits of the Interest Rate Futures and the future scenario related to Interest rate futures.

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Stay Tuned πŸ˜‰

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INTEREST RATE FUTURES – What’s That?

Hello Friends,

For past weeks we have been coming up with educational and informative inputs on topics like economic indicators, Positive Undertones in the Economy etc;

In this Blog now we would throw light on “Interest rate futures”.

What is Interest Rates Future?

What is Interest Rates Future?

What are interest rate futures?

An interest rate futures contract is β€œan agreement to buy or sell a debt instrument at a specified future date at a price that is fixed today.”

Interest rate futures are useful to those who are willing to trade in future interest rates and would like to benefit from interest rate movements.

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The underlying instrument in this contract is 10 year National Coupon-bearing government of India (GOI) security, whereas the notional coupon is of 7% with semi-annual compounding interest rate.

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The GOI securities are the underlying assets which should have a maturity status between seven-and-a-half years and 12 years from the first day of the delivery month.

Interest Rate Futures are the most widely traded derivatives instrument in the world.

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The total outstanding notional principal amount in Interest Rate Futures is 30.09 times higher than equity index futures.

Interest rates are linked to a variety of economic conditions.

They can change rapidly, influencing investments and debt obligations.

In a market environment where long term debt issuance by the government is increasing and the demand for it is growing, there is a strong need for a cost efficient hedging instrument against interest rate.

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In Next Coming parts, we would try to understand why Interest rate futures are needed, what is the backbone of interest rate futures and many more related aspects in this regard. πŸ™‚

Stay Tuned πŸ˜‰

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Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 2 :)

Positive Undertones In The Economy

Extending to the yesterday’s post on the positive undertones of the economy in the markets and investors tips, here we coming up with the more factors which investors should use for picking up fundamentally good stocks.

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1. Reality companies hike rates by 15%

Reality sector is witnessing a substantial demand, especially in the mature markets, after the prices dropped a few months ago.

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With the gradual return of residential property buyers, prices in NCR and Mumbai areas have moved up 10-15%.

How long these prices will sustain is hard to determine, but this indicates the confidence of investors.

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2. India..in Better Position

India can be considered as β€œbalanced” in terms of investment and consumption with savings rate of 35% and consumption of 65% of its GDP.

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The fastest growing China leans towards investment, whereas most of the western countries are weighted more towards consumption.

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If we compare India’s Sensitive Index with its other Asian peers, Sensex is valued at 17.6 times estimated earnings where as China’s Shanghai Composite Index trades at 22 times earnings and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is valued at 24 times.

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So, India remains very attractive and it is an opportune time for Indian companies to grab market share.

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3. Developments in the rest of the economy πŸ™‚

If we see the positive economic numbers across the globe, it seems that world economy is moving towards recovery.

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Australian economy surprised with a jump in growth in the second quarter.

US have witnessed a growth in the current quarter GDP, US manufacturing and housing sectors appears to be gathering pace, quarter’s results came better than expected.

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European economies like France and Germany continued their gradual emergence from the worst crisis in decades and company results showed an upturn.

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4. Concerns Over Weak Monsoon!

Everyone is expecting that poor rains would push up food prices in the short-term, due to the reduced yield of kharif crop and it would add to inflationary pressures.

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But at the same time, we should also know that Indian agriculture is not limited to agro commodities only, but it is well diversified into horticulture, livestock and fisheries and their share in total output of the agricultural sector is increasing.

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Total agricultural output accounts for only 18.5 % of the gross domestic product and the kharif crops like cereals, pulses and oilseeds account for only 20% of it.

Moreover, government spending in rural areas will mitigate the effect of diminished monsoon rains.

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So, Looking at the above factors, India growth story remains strong in the long run.

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So, one can go for the companies, which will benefit from β€œEconomic growth” like power plants, roads, service providers like banking and engineering sector.

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Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 1 :)

positive undertones of economy

We had a positive Q1FY10 result, which boosted the sentiments of investors regarding the economic recovery.

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But are we actually out of it?

Though the earnings were encouraging but if we analyze it, the results had a β€œbottom-line growth”… may be because of the lower costs of raw material, huge cost cutting, profit from other sources like stake sale or stock market trading etc.

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With lower interest rates, government spending in rural areas and lower base year, I am very much optimistic for Q2FY10 that these results would be β€œrevenue driven”.

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Top line growth is not only good for the company and stock market but also for the economy as a whole.

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Apart from the Q2FY10 numbers, there are positive undertones in the markets and investors should use these undertones for picking up fundamentally good stocks.

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Those are :

1. Measures for fiscal deficit

The GoI is taking several measures to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Disinvestment is high on the priority list.

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As private spending is increasing, Govt. is reducing need for stimulus.

A large part of deficit is contributed by the oil subsidy.

For this, the ministry of petroleum is lowering the subsidy burden in Kerosene and LPG.

Recently, improved tax compliance with new tax code and enforcement through the recently initiated Unique Identification Project are other steps to control the deficit.

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2. Accelerating production

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of the global recession.

The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles or other factory-made goods.

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3. Capital flows to India

Another positive trigger can be the capital flows to India, which is expected to increase because of better medium-term growth and faster recovery prospects.

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The Q1FY10 early indicators suggest that NRI deposits, FII portfolio inflows and inward FDI flows have generally been strong, as compared to the net capital outflows witnessed in the last two quarters of 2008-09.

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4. Exports seen at $167 bn in FY10

For Indian Export Organisations, India’s exports are expected to touch around $167 billion, almost the same level of last year in FY10.

The commerce ministry looks ambitious and optimistic and has come up with foreign trade policy for the next 5 years, whereby; it aims to have an export of $ 200 billion by FY11.

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This will ultimately improve the declining trend of exports and will give thrust to employment-oriented sector like Textiles and Gem Jewellery.

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5. The New Tax Code

The new tax code has simplified the tax laws and will result in better compliance and a broader tax base.

The resulting incremental tax revenues will first reduce the fiscal deficit. This is a net positive.

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People, there are many other factors and Positive undertones in the economy which indicates towards the betterment of the economy and stock market.

We would come up with the rest of factors in Part 2 of the topic in next blog. πŸ™‚

Stay Tuned πŸ˜‰

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of

the global recession. The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles

or other factory-made goods.

Govt all set to introduce a new IIP in about 4 months :)

indian industry

As the government is expected to introduce a new index of industrial production (IIP) in around 4 months, the benchmark for measuring industrial production in India is all set to change.

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However, the new index will use 2004-05 as the base year of calculation instead of 1993-94.

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The number of commodities will go up to around 850, from 543 whereas nearly 30% of the existing commodities will be swapped by new ones.

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It’ll certainly be a much more recent picture, no question about it.

As in recent times, the product composition has changed dramatically, so both the widening and the deepening of the economy will be reflected.

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Moreover, the weight assigned to different product groups as part of the final index will also change since they are presently incompatible with the changes in production patterns.

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Such as, mobile phones are not included in the index while LCDs are not included in television sales.

Moreover, the weightage given to autos is well below their importance in the economy.

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However, it is said that the weightages will change in order to fix these like the weight for basic goods will rise by 5% points while that for capital goods will rise by 5.7% points.

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Morever, the intermediate goods will see the biggest hit, losing 7.7% points and consumer durables will increase in weight while consumer non durables will be lighter by 5% points.

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Change in weights of different commodity groups:

Change in weights of different commodity groups

Similarly, electricity will rise by close to 2% points but manufacturing will take a hit of over 7.5% points.

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The new IIP index will definitely give us a better idea of the kind of changes industrial production has undergone in the past decade.

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However, collection of the base data in time would pose as a major challenge for the government as different departments are responsible for collecting the data.

In recent times, collecting data from the manufacturing sector, is already turning out to be a problem as companies aren’t responding fast enough.

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