Posts Tagged ‘Germany’

GUAR…… “U” TURN AHEAD

Guar gum enjoys prominent position in the exports of minor forest products. India exports guar gum in various forms to all parts of the globe. More than 80 per cent of exports of minor forest products are accounted for by guar gum.

.

The government has appointed Shellac and Forest Products Export Promotion Council (SHEFEXIL) as the canalising agency for export of guar gum to Europe. “Guar gum exports to European Union, originating in or consigned from India and intended for animal or human consumption have been allowed subject to endorsement by SHEFEXIL.

.

Around 90% of the total Guar Gum production is exported to countries like China,US, Germany and France.

.

Sowing and Harvesting Season….

.

The crop is sown from June and extends up to July. It is harvested from October and the peak arrival time continues till the end of December.

.

Guar complex mostly follows the seasonal pattern in its movement, but quite volatile during March- September. As given in the above chart, guar seed prices tend to remain low during January, June and September months. The price movement starts its bull run from February, the time of lean arrivals & reaches its peak in the month of July. Later on, during August the reports of sowing come into scenario which affects the prices. The arrival pattern during October & December further brings the prices down.

.

The early south- west monsoon forecasts and progress of monsoon from June to September influence the price movement. Later on, arrival pattern and demand from stockiest affect the prices.

.

The Road Ahead: Considering the supply side in the current crop season i.e. October 2009-September 2010, production is estimated to be lower at around 3-3.5 million bags compared with 8.5-9 million bags in 2008-09. Carryover stocks of last year for Guar seed stands at around 3-3.5 million bags. Thus, total supplies for 2009-10 stands at around 6 million bags, which is far below the total consumption of 7-7.5 million bags. Guar gum stock with the stockiest currently stands at around 150,000 tonnes. Guar futures have already discounted by almost 15-18% since the beginning of the year due to slowed down off-takes by millers. They were not buying Guar seed at high prices as they have huge stocks of Gum & also due to huge disparity in the price of seed and gum.

.

However, after the futures finishing their correction phase, the current scenario signifies that the stockiest have started stocking Guar seed at the current low prices on expectations that the prices would rise further due to a drop in output. However, further price rally would depend on the overseas demand for Guar gum which is expected to pick up which may lead prices to breach the level of 5100 in medium term.

.

Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

LEAD “The Element of Earth’s crust”

Lead is a heavy, malleable, bluish grey metal. It is one of the metals most resistant to common corrosion problems. Lead has some important properties, in particular malleability (i.e. it can be hammered into shape), ease of production, ease of melting and joining, and good corrosion resistance.

Applications


There are many different uses of Lead. It may be used as a pure metal, alloyed with other metals, or as chemical compounds. The main end-uses for lead are as Batteries (80%) mainly cars, also industrial uses, Sheet (6%)- roofing, Lead compounds – stabilisers for plastics, Pigments – manufacturing of paints, Lead alloys – specialist alloys, Cable sheathing – power cables, Miscellaneous – includes radiation shielding, balancing weights.

Supply

The world’s top refined lead producing countries in 2009 were as follows:

1. China – 3.708 million tonnes

2. United States – 1.240 million tonnes

3. Germany – 388,000 tonnes

4. United Kingdom – 312,000 tonnes

5. South Korea – 290,000 tonnes

World production of refined lead totalled 8.815 million tonnes in 2009.

.

Capacity Production Figures in tonnes (1000s)

.


Demand Global lead demand this year is estimated at about 8.7 million tonnes, compared with 8.2 million tonnes in 2009. About 80 percent is used by battery producers. Demand for lead is less cyclical than that for most other base metals as about 40 to 50 percent is for replacement batteries, which makes it very resilient.

.

The top five lead consuming nations in 2009 were as follows:

.


China – 3.860 million tonnes, United States – 1.426 million tonnes, South Korea – 320,000 tonnes, Germany – 314,000 tonnes, Spain – 233,000 tonnes. In India about 75 per cent of total demand is from the domestic battery industries.

.

Tug Of War………..stocks V/s Price

.


Benchmark lead on the London Metal Exchange at around $2,221 a tonne is up more than 160 percent since hitting $850 a tonne in December 2008 when markets started to fear economic recession could turn into a 1930s style depression.

.

Since the beginning of the year 2009, lead prices as well as lead stocks are both increasing. The reason could be anything from large banks which are manipulating the market to gain profit on a short term to a big country which want to lower their USD currency reserves by stepping into metals.

.

In the year 2010, the graph of the lead price compared with the world stock of lead seems to look quite healthy. Lead stocks are getting up and as a reaction the lead price is going down. The basics of supply and demand seem to work.

.

News from Industry

.


·Xstrata’s sizeable Brunswick mine in eastern Canada is due to become depleted in 2011. It produced around 66,500 tonnes of lead in concentrate last year.

.

·Ivernia expects to produce about 60,000 tonnes of contained lead in concentrates in 2010 and expects that to ramp up to 85,000 tonnes a year from 2011 onwards.

.

DID YOU KNOW….???

.


Lead makes up only about 0.0013% of the earth’s crust.

.

IMF Sells 200 Tonnes of Gold to RBI

Gold-surges-alltime-high

IMF Sells 200 Tonnes of Gold to RBI

The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for $6.7 billion in order to shore up the Fund’s finances to enable it to boost the concessional lending to the world’s poorest countries.

This sale of gold to India represents almost half of 403.3 tonnes of total sales volume, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board September 18.

IMF said that the transaction involved daily sales, which were phased over a period of two-week during October 19-30.

The price at which the each daily sale was conducted was set on the basis of market prices prevailing that day, it said.

This deal will increase India’s gold holdings to the tenth largest among the Central banks.

🙂

“I strongly welcome this transaction with the Reserve Bank of India,” Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated.

“This transaction is an important step toward achieving the objectives of the IMF”s limited gold sales programme, which are to help put the Fund”s finances on a sound long-term footing and enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries.”

🙂

The IMF, which currently holds 3,217 tonnes of gold, is the third-largest official holder of the precious metal after the US and Germany.


The IMF has made gold sales a key element of its new income model aimed at lowering its dependence on lending revenue to cover expenses.


Under the Fund’s Articles of Agreement, all gold sales must be conducted at prices based on market prices, including direct sales to official holders as in the case of this transaction with India, the IMF said.


The Group of 20 key developed and developing countries, at their April summit in London, agreed the gold sales should allow the IMF to offer favourable conditions on loans to the poorest countries.


🙂

income model

Indian Small Car Exports to Europe Started Decreasing !

As scrap page schemes in several European markets are set to lapse,exports by Indian small-car producers have started declining.

As scrap page schemes in several European markets are set to lapse,exports by Indian small-car producers have started declining.

As scrap page schemes in several European markets are set to lapse by the year-end, exports by Indian small-car producers such as Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motor have started declining.

😦

However, on the back of incentives offered by Germany, France and the UK in order to help owners of older cars and vans buy new fuel-efficient vehicles these automakers saw exports increase 35-40 % in the last few months.

Moreover, Germany and Austria concluded their scrappage programmes and other countries are likely to end their schemes by December hence as exports to Europe start decreasing, Indian carmakers have started looking at non-European markets.

🙂

Additionally, till September 30, Maruti Suzuki had exported over 58,500 units,
with A-Star accounting for 33,500 units,
Nissan Pixo at over 25,000 units and
other models contributing about 7,900 units
while its exports of 1.3 lakh units in 2009-10
against 70,023 units in the last fiscal year.

However, Maruti Suzuki’s exports is not likely to cross 1.16 lakh units this year as many European countries have withdrawn their scrappage schemes.

🙂

On the other hand, Hyundai Motor India (HMIL) too benefitted from additional European export orders where more than 50% of their exports are targeted at European countries with Germany accounting for the maximum and aims to export about 2.7 lakh units in 2009-10 against 2.45 lakh units last year.

🙂

Further, in order to qualify for the scrap page benefit, the emission levels in the new car should be below 160 g per km while Germany had created a € 5 billion fund for the old-car scrappage scheme, doling out € 2,500 incentive for a fuel-efficient new car.

France had set aside € 220 million, offering € 1,000 and a deferred tax benefit of up to € 5,000 for a new car.

🙂

Read Full Story on Economic Times.

Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 2 :)

Positive Undertones In The Economy

Extending to the yesterday’s post on the positive undertones of the economy in the markets and investors tips, here we coming up with the more factors which investors should use for picking up fundamentally good stocks.

🙂

1. Reality companies hike rates by 15%

Reality sector is witnessing a substantial demand, especially in the mature markets, after the prices dropped a few months ago.

🙂

With the gradual return of residential property buyers, prices in NCR and Mumbai areas have moved up 10-15%.

How long these prices will sustain is hard to determine, but this indicates the confidence of investors.

🙂

2. India..in Better Position

India can be considered as “balanced” in terms of investment and consumption with savings rate of 35% and consumption of 65% of its GDP.

🙂

The fastest growing China leans towards investment, whereas most of the western countries are weighted more towards consumption.

🙂

If we compare India’s Sensitive Index with its other Asian peers, Sensex is valued at 17.6 times estimated earnings where as China’s Shanghai Composite Index trades at 22 times earnings and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is valued at 24 times.

🙂

So, India remains very attractive and it is an opportune time for Indian companies to grab market share.

🙂

3. Developments in the rest of the economy 🙂

If we see the positive economic numbers across the globe, it seems that world economy is moving towards recovery.

🙂

Australian economy surprised with a jump in growth in the second quarter.

US have witnessed a growth in the current quarter GDP, US manufacturing and housing sectors appears to be gathering pace, quarter’s results came better than expected.

🙂

European economies like France and Germany continued their gradual emergence from the worst crisis in decades and company results showed an upturn.

🙂

4. Concerns Over Weak Monsoon!

Everyone is expecting that poor rains would push up food prices in the short-term, due to the reduced yield of kharif crop and it would add to inflationary pressures.

😦

But at the same time, we should also know that Indian agriculture is not limited to agro commodities only, but it is well diversified into horticulture, livestock and fisheries and their share in total output of the agricultural sector is increasing.

🙂

Total agricultural output accounts for only 18.5 % of the gross domestic product and the kharif crops like cereals, pulses and oilseeds account for only 20% of it.

Moreover, government spending in rural areas will mitigate the effect of diminished monsoon rains.

🙂

So, Looking at the above factors, India growth story remains strong in the long run.

🙂

So, one can go for the companies, which will benefit from “Economic growth” like power plants, roads, service providers like banking and engineering sector.

Thanks 🙂

China pips Germany to Become World’s No.1 Exporter

China is world’s No. 1 exporter

China has become the world’s largest exporter surpassing Germany, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said.

🙂

China piped Germany—which held the No. 1 slot since 2003—by a slim margin of $10 million after exporting goods worth $521.7 billion in the first half of 2009.

🙂

The latest figures have put China and Germany in a desperate race to establish themselves firmly at the zenith in 2009-end and in 2010.

Independent experts, including a WTO economist, have said it’s still too early to say that China would remain ahead of Germany by the end of 2009.

🙂

But elated Chinese economists have predicted that the country will continue to grow and never give up this special position which it has achieved for the first time.

🙂

China will surpass Japan to become the world’s second-biggest economy this year if the exchange rate factor did not come in the way, as expected by experts.

🙂

China’s exports to all its 12 major trading partners have risen rapidly in the past two years.

China’s share in the trade of these 12 countries, including the US and European countries, climbed from 16.2% during the first quarter to 19.3% in early 2008.

🙂

The WTO had predicted last July that China would pass Germany as the largest exporter in 2009.

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the ratio of China’s foreign trade to global trade will increase from the current 8.7% to 10% when the global economy recovers.

🙂

However experts have a piece of advise for Chinese exporters that their is need for them to shift their focus to emerging markets—instead of the US and Europe—to enhance their competitiveness.

🙂

China has become the world’s largest exporter surpassing Germany, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has said. China piped Germany—which held the No. 1 slot since 2003—by a slim margin of $10 million after exporting goods worth $521.7 billion in the first half of 2009.

The latest figures have put China and Germany in a desperate race to establish themselves firmly at the zenith in 2009-end and in 2010. Independent experts, including a WTO economist, have said it’s still too early to say that China would remain ahead of Germany by the end of 2009. But elated Chinese economists, including Li Daokui of Tsinghua University, have predicted that the country will continue to grow and never give up this special position which it has achieved for the first time.

“The figure is not surprising, thanks to the nation’s growing economic strength. And possibilities are high that the momentum will continue,’’ Li was quoted in the official media as saying.

China will surpass Japan to become the world’s second-biggest economy this year if the exchange rate factor did not come in the way, Cai Haitao, inspector of the department of policy research under the ministry of commerce, was quoted in the official media as saying.

China’s exports to all its 12 major trading partners have risen rapidly in the past two years. China;s share in the trade of these 12 countries, including the US and European countries, climbed from 16.2% during the first quarter to 19.3% in early 2008.

The WTO had predicted last July that China would pass Germany as the largest exporter in 2009. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said the ratio of China’s foreign trade to global trade will increase from the current 8.7% to 10% when the global economy recovers.

Cai advised that Chinese exporters need to shift their focus to emerging markets—instead of the US and Europe—to enhance their competitiveness.

US Economists feel Positive, says Worst is Behind :)

Worst is behind :)

Among the world’s large economies, UK, which is the seventh largest and Italy, the tenth, remain in recession, like the US.

The UK economy shrunk 0.8% in the second quarter, while Italy’s was down 0.5%.

😦

Unlike in the UK, however, economists in the US believe the worst may be behind them.

‘‘It’s quite possible, though not certain, that retrospectively, we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August, may be September,’’ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman was quoted as saying.

🙂

There is evidence that his is not undue optimism.

The pace of job losses in the US slowed more than forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in more than a year.

US GDP also shrank by just 0.3% (equivalent to an annualized 1%) in the seconnd-quarter after a 6.4% drop in the previous three months.

🙂

That explains why US Federal Reserve is willing to bet that the nosedive the economy had witnessed in recent months is behind it.

🙂

Over the last two years, the US has witnessed its worst financial crisis in decades, but that could be ending, which is good news for the world since it accounts for a fifth of global GDP.

🙂

France and Germany also announced unexpected returns to the growth path, which means that four of the world’s five largest economies and six of the top 10 are now not in recession.

🙂

Adding to the sense of optimism, the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, saying that the world’s largest economy was showing signs of levelling out.

🙂

Among the five largest economies of the world, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars — which is more of an apples to apples comparison — China and India are already growing at healthy rates, although lower than their own pace for the last few years.

🙂

Japan too has climbed out of recession and so has Germany.

These economies and the US account for 47% of world GDP in PPP terms.

🙂

Among the world’s other large economies, Brazil is also now no longer in recession having grown by 1.5% in the second quarter.

Among the world’s large economies, UK, which is the seventh largest and Italy, the tenth, remain in recession, like the US. The UK economy shrunk 0.8% in the second quarter, while Italy’s was down 0.5%.

Unlike in the UK, however, economists in the US believe the worst may be behind them. ‘‘It’s quite possible, though not certain, that retrospectively, we’ll say that the recession ended in July or August, may be September,’’ Nobel laureate Paul Krugman was quoted as saying.

There is evidence that his is not undue optimism. The pace of job losses in the US slowed more than forecast in July and the unemployment rate dropped for the first time in more than a year. US GDP also shrank by just 0.3% (equivalent to an annualized 1%) in the seconnd-quarter after a 6.4% drop in the previous three months.

That explains why US Federal Reserve is willing to bet that the nosedive the economy had witnessed in recent months is behind it. Over the last two years, the US has witnessed its worst financial crisis in decades, but that could be ending, which is good news for the world since it accounts for a fifth of global GDP.

Some light showed up at the end of the recession tunnel on Wednesday as France and Germany announced unexpected returns to the growth path, which means that four of the world’s five largest economies and six of the top 10 are now not in recession.

Adding to the sense of optimism, the US Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, saying that the world’s largest economy was showing signs of levelling out. Both France and Germany had been predicted by most economists to face a decline of about 0.3% in their GDPs for the second quarter (April-June) of 2009, but they surprised themselves and the rest of the world by announcing that they’ve actually recorded growth of 0.3% each.

Among the five largest economies of the world, measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars — which is more of an apples to apples comparison — China and India are already growing at healthy rates, although lower than their own pace for the last few years. Japan too has climbed out of recession and so has Germany. These economies and the US account for 47% of world GDP in PPP terms.

The Eurozone as a whole is also now projected to have contracted by just 0.1% compared to the 2.5% fall in GDP in the first quarter (January-March). The growth rates reported by Germany and France may seem like nothing to get excited about, but considering that German GDP shrunk by 3.5% in the first quarter and France’s by 1.3%, it is quite a smart turnaround.

Among the world’s other large economies, Brazil is also now no longer in recession having grown by 1.5% in the second quarter.

D-Street may inch towards consolidation: Analysts

Dalal Street

A wave of consolidation is likely to greet Dalal Street this week as concerns over rainfall shortage would pull down investor sentiments and keep the market under pressure, analysts said.

🙂

“The market would remain range-bound and would look for a positive trigger amid the dampening effect on the possibility of a drought-like situation in the country,” Ashika Stock Brokers Research Head Paras Bothra said.

🙂

Analysts also said there might be some positive bias in the movement of the market but absence of any major trigger might shift focus on the rain God.

“Delayed monsoon has made the market totally indecisive of the next move.

🙂

The impact of drought would be felt in some time from now and that is holding back investor confidence to enter market,” SMC Capitals Equity head Jagannadham Thunguntla said.

🙂

Besides, with the US economy showing signs of revival and Germany and France emerging out of the recession quicker than expected, analysts feel it could bring in a positive bias in the market.

🙂

“As it is now a known fact that the major economies are pulling themselves out of the recession, I do not foresee any major collapse in the market in near term as it is all positive news around,” Bothra added.

The BSE Sensex gained 251 points, or 1.66 percent in the past week and closed at 15,411.63 points.