Posts Tagged ‘GBP’

Standard Chartered IDR : “Opportunity in Crisis”

Standard Chartered IDR : “Opportunity in Crisis”

By Jagannadham Thunuguntla

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The bad market conditions are putting pressure on the ongoing IPO of Standard Chartered IDR. However, if one closely observes, there is some opportunity emerging in the Standard Chartered IDR.

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What’s the trade?

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When the price of Indian IDR was fixed, the trading price of the Standard Chartered Plc share on London Stock Exchange was trading in the range of GBP 15.5.

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However, thanks to the stabilization of the global equity markets in the past 2 to 3 trading sessions, the price of the Standard Chartered Plc on London stock exchange has reached to the tune of GBP 16.82 on Thursday closing. Hence, the Indian rupee translation of the trading price in London stock exchange works out to the equivalent price of Rs 1140. As, there is 10:1 exchange rate, the effective equivalent price of Standard Chartered Indian IDR works out to Rs 114.

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If one observes, the Standard Chartered IDR issue book is getting built at the lower end of Rs 100.

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So, the institutional investors and large HNIs can take this opportunity, by simply applying for IDRs in the Indian public issue; and shorting the share in the London stock exchange. Hence, there is a spread of Rs. 14 (that is, between Rs. 114 and Rs. 100), that is 14%.

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This trade is more fascinating, especially, on the back of the fact that recently the listing days from the closure of the issue have been reduced to 12 days from the erstwhile 22 days. So, 14% is the spread available for a trade of just 12 days.

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Further, it is appearing that the IPO book will at best get barely subscribed one time. Hence, there is no risk of oversubscription. So, whoever applies is assured of allotment. Hence, as there is no spill-over risk due to oversubscription, this trade can really work well.

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It seems there is a clear 14% opportunity in just 12 days for institutions and large HNIs.

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Even if we assume that the final issue price will be in line with the Rs 104 per IDR, as applied by the Anchor investors, still there is Rs 10 spread (that is, between Rs 114 and Rs. 104), that is to the tune of about 10%.

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The couple of assumptions that need to be highlighted are:

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(a) The IDR issue will be able to get closed successfully and will not get called off; and

(b) The currency risk is properly hedged

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Conclusion

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As this is the first ever IDR issue in India, the learning curve will be steeper for every one associated in the value chain, regarding the concept and nuances of the modus operandi. As always, the “first mover advantage” can prove to be invaluable.

DOLLAR INDEX “BASKET OF CURRENCIES”

The US Dollar Index (USDX) is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar and the world’s most widely recognized, publicly-traded currency index. The U.S. Dollar Index is the creation of the New York Board of Trade (NYBOT). It was established in 1973 for tracking the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, which, at that time, represented the largest trading partners of the United States. The baseline of 100.00 on the USDX was set at its launch in March 1973.

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Updated on………

USDX is updated whenever US Dollar markets open, which is from Sunday evening New York time (early Monday morning Asia time) for 24 hours a day to late Friday afternoon New York time.

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Composition

It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar’s value

compared only with:

·Euro (EUR), 57.6% weight                                    

·Japanese yen (JPY), 13.6% weight

·Pound sterling (GBP), 11.9% weight

·Canadian dollar (CAD), 9.1% weight

·Swedish krona (SEK), 4.2% weight and

·Swiss franc (CHF) 3.6% weight.

The importance of the trade weighted average between the currencies represents a more realistic asset value of underlying commodities than the actively traded dollar.

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Monitoring

By using the Dollar Index, investors can take advantage of moves in the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of world currencies or can hedge their portfolio of assets against the risk of a move in the US dollar in a single transaction. The rise and fall of the US dollar is said to be responsible for many movements in stock and commodity markets. When it looks like the US dollar is getting strong then there is a common conclusion that it will leads to weaker commodity prices.

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A Weak Dollar Can Make Commodities More Profitable

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Gone are the days when the simple fundamentals of demand and supply were used to predict prices. As rules of the game have been modified, the long-term trends are sometimes defined trend of dollar index. The increasing presence of index investors in commodities markets precipitated a fundamental process of financialization amongst the commodities markets, through which commodity prices now become the resultant of spillover effects of dollar index. Rising dollar eventually produces lower commodity prices. A falling dollar has the exact opposite effect; it is bullish for commodities. Importantly, as long as the U.S. dollar index continues to trend lower commodity futures markets are likely to continue to see their prices trend generally higher.

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The price of all US Dollar denominated commodities, like gold, will change to reflect the fact that it will take fewer or more dollars to buy that commodity. So it’s quite possible, in fact it’s almost always the case that a portion of the change in the price of gold is really just a reflection of a change in the value of the US Dollar. Sometimes that portion is insignificant. But often the opposite is true where the entire change in the gold price is simply a mathematical recalculation of an ever-changing US Dollar value.

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Therefore, in order to determine commodity price trends, one needs to develop a comprehensive and holistic approach between U.S dollar index & commodities.

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Stay Tuned for More updates :)

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