Posts Tagged ‘foreign investment’

Weekly Update 23rd – 27th August 2010

The buying continued in the Indian markets and helped broader indices to surge to two and a half year highs. While negative sentiments in the global markets led to profit booking with major markets closing in the negative on weekly basis. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index dropped to the lowest reading since July 2009 to minus 7.7 this month, signaling contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

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The unemployment claims unexpectedly shot up by 12,000 to 500,000 last week more than the economist estimates. U.S. recovery is fading and European governments would struggle to reduce their deficits are the worrisome factors that are lingering on in the investors mind. The producer price index in U.S. increased 0.2 percent following a 0.5 percent drop in June.

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Excluding food and energy costs it climbed 0.3 percent signaling that world’s largest economy may not face deflation moving with slower growth. China, the Emerging Market frontier that saw an unparallel growth in the past is facing threats of faltering demand for exports as U.S. and European consumers are cutting spending, rising wages and the risk of bad loans from record lending by banks in the past. Japan Economy saw an expansion of an annualized 0.4 percent in the quarter ending June pushing it into third place behind the U.S. and China.

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In India, with good monsoon season the prospects of harvest have improved and now it is widely believed that inflation would come down by the end of this quarter. The primary articles index rose 14.85% in the year to 7 August 2010, lower than previous week’s annual rise of 15.66%. The food price index rose 10.35%, lower than previous week’s annual rise of 11.4%, as prices of vegetables, potatoes and onions fell.

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Going forward the domestic market is expected to remain firm with the support of foreign investment.

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However, investors will continuously monitor the global developments after some of the recent disappointing data coming from U.S.markets. Trend of Indian Stock Markets is up though other world markets are coming under pressure especially the European and US markets. Dollar index is showing some strength which is giving jitters to commodities. But till the trend of our stock markets is up, one should be playing on the long side with a cautious approach. Nifty has support between 5400-5350 and Sensex between 18000-17800 levels.

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Gold has benefited from last few weeks as investors are escalating the insurance like metals in their portfolio. However, gold silver ratio is rising once again as silver is moving in a range due to falling base metals. With the looming weakness in various economies, gold may invite bulls further. After touching many week highs, base metals washed off their previous gain on unexpected drop in Philadelphia Fed survey and bad employment data. Now the pulse of base metals is likely to be guided by the outcome of housing and durable goods data of US this week. Weakness in equity market, swelling inventories, slow recovery may weigh on the crude prices further, which already hit six week low last week. Dollar gain against euro is dampening the commodities demand, compelling CRB index to trade range bound with bearish bias.

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Nevertheless, lower level buying cannot be denied in between.

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IFRS: THE IMPACT ON INDIAN CORPORATE

International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) has gained huge momentum in recent years across the world as it is used as a universal financial  reporting language. Almost 100 countries have adopted it while few other countries have declared their willingness to adopt or converge with IFRS over the next two-three years.

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In the world of globalization, world has become more dependent on each other, which forces more and more countries to open their doors for businesses expansion across borders and to foreign investment. A large number of multi-national companies are establishing their businesses in various countries especially in emerging countries; as a result the companies in emerging countries are increasingly accessing the global markets to fulfill their capital requirement by getting their securities listed on the stock exchanges outside their country. Few Indian companies are also being listed on overseas stock exchanges, but different countries follow their own accounting frameworks, which create a great confusion for users of financial statements, finally it leads to inefficiency in capital markets across the world.

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Therefore, there is a requirement for a single set of high quality accounting standards that should be spoken by all of them across the globe, to meet the increasing complexity of business transactions and globalisation of capital, which has prompted many countries to go for convergence of national accounting standards with IFRSs.

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In this changing scenario, India cannot cut off itself from the developments taking place worldwide. At present, the Accounting Standards Board (ASB) of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of India (ICAI) formulates Accounting Standards (ASs). Complex nature of IFRSs and the differences between the existing ASs and IFRSs, the ICAI is of the view that IFRSs should be adopted for the public interest entities such as listed entities, banks and insurance entities and largesized entities from the accounting periods beginning effect from April, 2011. Convergence to IFRS would mean India would join a league of more than 100 countries, which have converged with IFRS. Converging to IFRS by Indian companies will be very challenging and on the contrary it could also be rewarding too.

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Benefits to corporates in the Indian context World Class Peer Standards for Financial Reporting: IFRSs will surely enhance the comparability of financial information and financial performance with global peers and industry. This will result in more transparent financial reporting of a company’s activities which will benefit investors, customers and other key stakeholders in India and overseas. The adoption of IFRS is expected to result in better quality of financial reporting due to consistent application of accounting principles and improvement in reliability of financial statements.

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Investors: It will be a great help for those investors who wish to invest outside their own country and looking for a Financial statements, which prepared by using a common set of accounting standards IFRS provides them better comprehensible investment opportunities as opposed to financial statements prepared using a different set of national accounting standards. For better understanding of financial statements, global investors have to incur more cost in terms of the time and efforts to convert the financial statements so that they can confidently compare opportunities. Investors’ confidence would be well-built if accounting standards used are globally accepted. Convergence with IFRSs contributes to investors’ understanding and confidence in high quality financial statements.

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The industry: It will be easier to raise capital from foreign markets at lower cost if the industry can create confidence in the minds of foreign investors that their financial statements comply with globally accepted accounting standards. The burden of financial reporting is lessened with convergence of accounting standards because it simplifies the process of preparing the individual and group financial statements and thereby reduces the costs of preparing the financial statements using different sets of accounting standards.

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The accounting professionals: Convergence with IFRSs also create more business opportunity to the accounting professionals in a great way that they are able to sell their services as experts in different parts of the world, it offers them more opportunities in any part of the world if same accounting practices prevail throughout the world. They are able to quote IFRSs to clients to give them backing for recommending certain ways of reporting.

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Challenges to Indian Corporate Laws and regulations: There is a need to bring a change in several laws and regulations governing financial accounting and reporting system in India. In addition to accounting standards, there are legal and regulatory requirements that determine the manner in which financial information is reported or presented in financial statements.

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Lack of adequate professionals: There is a lack of adequate professionals with practical IFRS conversion experience and therefore many companies will have to rely on external advisers and their auditors.

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Replacement and Up gradation in systems: Conversion to IFRS will require extensive upgrades or total replacement of major system. With sufficient planning, upgrades and replacements can occur as part of the overall strategic technology planning and procurement process.

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.Convert historical data: Historical data from recent prior periods will have to be recast for comparative purposes. This is necessary to permit accurate and comparative trend and ratio analysis. Record retention requirements should be reviewed to ensure that data currently being retained is detailed enough to permit proper restatement of prior-period financials.

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Coordination of Conversion System: For many organizations, the conversion to IFRS will be a multi-year exercise with numerous changes to technology infrastructure and systems. Development of new technology systems should be carefully examined so IFRS requirements can be incorporated.

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Conclusion

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Convergence to IFRS will greatly enhance the transparency of Indian companies which will surely help them to project themselves in global map, which will help Indian companies benchmark their performance with global counterparts. But companies will need to be proactive to build awareness and consensus amongst investors and analysts to explain the reasons for this volatility in order to improve understanding, and increase transparency and reliability of their financial statements. However, the responsibility for enforcement and providing guidance on implementation vests with local government and accounting and regulatory bodies, such as the ICAI in India will play a vital role. The ICAI will have to make adequate investments and build infrastructure for awareness and training program.

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Successful implementation of IFRS in India depends on the regulator’s immediate intention to convert to IFRS and make appropriate regulatory amendments.

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Investors Wealth Up 80% in Just Over Five Months :)

Investors-gain-Rs25lakh-cr

Investor wealth has increased by over Rs 25 lakh crore in just over five months from the beginning of the current financial year, on improving sentiments in the domestic and global markets.

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According to an analysis of the valuations for the period (Apr 1-Sep 18), the combined market capitalization of all the firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange increased by Rs 25,02,749 crore or nearly 80 per cent.

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Analysts believe the rise in investor wealth has been due to the upbeat market sentiments on indications of global economic recovery.

“The markets have given a healthy return on the back of positive mood among domestic and international investors,” SMC Global‘s Vice President Rajesh Jain said.

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The total market valuation increased to Rs 56, 35,835.75 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 31,33,086.7 crore on Apr 1.

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While, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex has given a healthy return of nearly 70% to hover around 16,700 level in September against 9,900 level in April.

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The Sensex companies, which comprises of about 45 per cent of the total market capitalisation of all the companies, saw its combined market valuation rise by over Rs 10,00,000 crore in the reviewed period.

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The combined market capitalisation of the 30 blue-chip stocks rose to Rs 25,31,831.55 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 15,31,252.34 crore on Apr 1.

However, the total turnover of the Sensex companies dropped to Rs 1,597.42 crore on Sep 18 from 1,705.52 crore on Apr 1.

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Jain also said that the drop in the volumes is due to less participation of retail investors in the markets, which reflects that the run is mainly on account of institutional money, both domestic and international.

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Meanwhile, foreign investment into the Indian stock markets are likely to cross USD 10 billion-mark by the end of this month.

Huge sum of USD 9.8 billion (Rs 47,674 crore) have already been poured into the bourses by overseas entities so far in 2009.

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Note : For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 2 :)

Positive Undertones In The Economy

Extending to the yesterday’s post on the positive undertones of the economy in the markets and investors tips, here we coming up with the more factors which investors should use for picking up fundamentally good stocks.

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1. Reality companies hike rates by 15%

Reality sector is witnessing a substantial demand, especially in the mature markets, after the prices dropped a few months ago.

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With the gradual return of residential property buyers, prices in NCR and Mumbai areas have moved up 10-15%.

How long these prices will sustain is hard to determine, but this indicates the confidence of investors.

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2. India..in Better Position

India can be considered as “balanced” in terms of investment and consumption with savings rate of 35% and consumption of 65% of its GDP.

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The fastest growing China leans towards investment, whereas most of the western countries are weighted more towards consumption.

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If we compare India’s Sensitive Index with its other Asian peers, Sensex is valued at 17.6 times estimated earnings where as China’s Shanghai Composite Index trades at 22 times earnings and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is valued at 24 times.

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So, India remains very attractive and it is an opportune time for Indian companies to grab market share.

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3. Developments in the rest of the economy 🙂

If we see the positive economic numbers across the globe, it seems that world economy is moving towards recovery.

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Australian economy surprised with a jump in growth in the second quarter.

US have witnessed a growth in the current quarter GDP, US manufacturing and housing sectors appears to be gathering pace, quarter’s results came better than expected.

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European economies like France and Germany continued their gradual emergence from the worst crisis in decades and company results showed an upturn.

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4. Concerns Over Weak Monsoon!

Everyone is expecting that poor rains would push up food prices in the short-term, due to the reduced yield of kharif crop and it would add to inflationary pressures.

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But at the same time, we should also know that Indian agriculture is not limited to agro commodities only, but it is well diversified into horticulture, livestock and fisheries and their share in total output of the agricultural sector is increasing.

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Total agricultural output accounts for only 18.5 % of the gross domestic product and the kharif crops like cereals, pulses and oilseeds account for only 20% of it.

Moreover, government spending in rural areas will mitigate the effect of diminished monsoon rains.

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So, Looking at the above factors, India growth story remains strong in the long run.

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So, one can go for the companies, which will benefit from “Economic growth” like power plants, roads, service providers like banking and engineering sector.

Thanks 🙂

Positive Undertones in the Economy – Part 1 :)

positive undertones of economy

We had a positive Q1FY10 result, which boosted the sentiments of investors regarding the economic recovery.

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But are we actually out of it?

Though the earnings were encouraging but if we analyze it, the results had a “bottom-line growth”… may be because of the lower costs of raw material, huge cost cutting, profit from other sources like stake sale or stock market trading etc.

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With lower interest rates, government spending in rural areas and lower base year, I am very much optimistic for Q2FY10 that these results would be “revenue driven”.

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Top line growth is not only good for the company and stock market but also for the economy as a whole.

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Apart from the Q2FY10 numbers, there are positive undertones in the markets and investors should use these undertones for picking up fundamentally good stocks.

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Those are :

1. Measures for fiscal deficit

The GoI is taking several measures to reduce the fiscal deficit.

Disinvestment is high on the priority list.

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As private spending is increasing, Govt. is reducing need for stimulus.

A large part of deficit is contributed by the oil subsidy.

For this, the ministry of petroleum is lowering the subsidy burden in Kerosene and LPG.

Recently, improved tax compliance with new tax code and enforcement through the recently initiated Unique Identification Project are other steps to control the deficit.

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2. Accelerating production

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of the global recession.

The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles or other factory-made goods.

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3. Capital flows to India

Another positive trigger can be the capital flows to India, which is expected to increase because of better medium-term growth and faster recovery prospects.

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The Q1FY10 early indicators suggest that NRI deposits, FII portfolio inflows and inward FDI flows have generally been strong, as compared to the net capital outflows witnessed in the last two quarters of 2008-09.

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4. Exports seen at $167 bn in FY10

For Indian Export Organisations, India’s exports are expected to touch around $167 billion, almost the same level of last year in FY10.

The commerce ministry looks ambitious and optimistic and has come up with foreign trade policy for the next 5 years, whereby; it aims to have an export of $ 200 billion by FY11.

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This will ultimately improve the declining trend of exports and will give thrust to employment-oriented sector like Textiles and Gem Jewellery.

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5. The New Tax Code

The new tax code has simplified the tax laws and will result in better compliance and a broader tax base.

The resulting incremental tax revenues will first reduce the fiscal deficit. This is a net positive.

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People, there are many other factors and Positive undertones in the economy which indicates towards the betterment of the economy and stock market.

We would come up with the rest of factors in Part 2 of the topic in next blog. 🙂

Stay Tuned 😉

India’s industrial production posted the fastest pace in the last 16 months in June, which shows that India has endured the worst of

the global recession. The reason can be low interest rates, which has given confidence to the consumers to borrow to buy vehicles

or other factory-made goods.

India May Trigger $39 Billion of Share Sales With Ownership Cap :)

India Shines

India may trigger as much as 1.9 trillion rupees ($39 billion) in stock sales, equivalent to five years of equity offerings, with a proposal to limit stakes of controlling shareholders.

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government is considering a plan that would require at least 25 percent of a company’s stock to be traded.

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The rule would prompt equity sales in 560 of Mumbai’s 3,335 most-active stocks, such as NMDC Ltd. and Steel Authority of India Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

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The changes may encourage foreign investment by bringing Indian regulations in line with the U.S., U.K. and Hong Kong.

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The 25 percent minimum would be good for the long-term Indian market. There are many very attractive companies with small floats that investors would like to be able to invest in.

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The rule change would require the government, whose constitution embraces socialism, to reduce dominant stakes in key industries such as steel making, oil and electricity supply.

The top 10 companies that would have to sell stock are state- run, accounting for about 80 percent of the total by value.

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Sensex Surges :

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, has climbed 61 percent this year, the eighth-best performer among 89 measures tracked by Bloomberg.

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Growth in Asia’s third-largest economy may accelerate to 7.75 percent after the government initiated stimulus plans to bolster banks’ capital and spur consumer spending, according to the finance ministry.

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International funds have bought 357.5 billion rupees of Indian stocks this year through Aug. 11, compared with record net sales of 530 billion rupees for all of 2008, according to data on the Securities and Exchange Board of India Web site.

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The government plans to boost funding for a rural jobs program by selling shares in some state-run companies.

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No Minimum :

Rules allow companies with a free-float worth at least 1 billion rupees to have as little as 10 percent traded, while there is no minimum for state-run enterprises, the ministry’s Web site says.

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The Sensex has returned 192 percent over the past five years, second in Asia only to Indonesia.

Since 2005, companies have raised 1.89 trillion rupees in share sales, including 116 billion rupees in January last year by Mumbai-based Reliance Power Ltd. that marked the country’s biggest initial public offering.

New Delhi-based DLF Ltd., India’s largest real estate developer, sold 92 billion rupees of stock in June 2007.

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Government Control :

India’s government plans to sell 8.38 percent of NMDC, the nation’s largest iron-ore producer.

The stake would fetch 120 billion rupees at current prices.

The government holds 98.4 percent in Hyderabad-based NMDC, and 85.8 percent of New Delhi-based Steel Authority of India, the nation’s second-biggest producer, according to Bloomberg data.

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“The sheer magnitude of offloading involved may result in an overhang on the secondary capital markets,” Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi, said in an interview.

“The capital market may find it difficult to absorb such heavy equity” he added.

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The Securities and Exchange Board of India advocates “a phased approach, as companies may need time” to sell shares, N. Hariharan, a Mumbai-based spokesman for the market regulator, said in an e-mail Aug. 7.

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‘Phased Manner’

The proposal “should be positive for markets if introduced in a phased manner,”

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Such a change is a welcome one.

Ensuring a reasonable minimum float would help avoid share price manipulation, scams, abuse by majority shareholders, etc. This would constitute a positive structural change.

🙂

India may trigger as much as 1.9 trillion rupees ($39 billion) in stock sales, equivalent to five years of equity offerings, with a proposal to limit stakes of controlling shareholders.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government is considering a plan that would require at least 25 percent of a company’s stock to be traded. The rule would prompt equity sales in 560 of Mumbai’s 3,335 most-active stocks, such as NMDC Ltd. and Steel Authority of India Ltd., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The changes may encourage foreign investment by bringing Indian regulations in line with the U.S., U.K. and Hong Kong, said Anshul Krishan, the Mumbai-based head of Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s India financing group. The sales, equal to about 4 percent of India’s $1 trillion stock market, probably won’t affect prices if they’re staggered over time, said Purav Jhaveri, senior investment strategist at Franklin Global Advisers.

“The 25 percent minimum would be good for the long-term Indian market,” Seth Freeman, chief executive officer of EM Capital Management LLC in San Francisco, which advises investors on emerging markets and runs the EM Capital India Gateway Fund, said in an e-mail response to questions. “There are many very attractive companies with small floats that investors would like to be able to invest in.”

The rule change would require the government, whose constitution embraces socialism, to reduce dominant stakes in key industries such as steelmaking, oil and electricity supply. The top 10 companies that would have to sell stock are state- run, accounting for about 80 percent of the total by value.

Sensex Surges

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, has climbed 61 percent this year, the eighth-best performer among 89 measures tracked by Bloomberg. Growth in Asia’s third-largest economy may accelerate to 7.75 percent after the government initiated stimulus plans to bolster banks’ capital and spur consumer spending, according to the finance ministry.

International funds have bought 357.5 billion rupees of Indian stocks this year through Aug. 11, compared with record net sales of 530 billion rupees for all of 2008, according to data on the Securities and Exchange Board of India Web site.

Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said in his July 6 budget speech that a rule requiring a public float of at least 25 percent for listed companies should be enforced uniformly, even for state-run enterprises that had been exempted. The government plans to boost funding for a rural jobs program by selling shares in some state-run companies.

No Minimum

Rules allow companies with a free-float worth at least 1 billion rupees to have as little as 10 percent traded, while there is no minimum for state-run enterprises, the ministry’s Web site says.

“The average public float in Indian listed companies is less than 15 percent,” Mukherjee said. “Deep, non-manipulable markets require larger and diversified public shareholdings.”

The Sensex has returned 192 percent over the past five years, second in Asia only to Indonesia. Since 2005, companies have raised 1.89 trillion rupees in share sales, including 116 billion rupees in January last year by Mumbai-based Reliance Power Ltd. that marked the country’s biggest initial public offering. New Delhi-based DLF Ltd., India’s largest real estate developer, sold 92 billion rupees of stock in June 2007.

Government Control

India’s government plans to sell 8.38 percent of NMDC, the nation’s largest iron-ore producer, Steel Secretary Pramod Rastogi said Aug. 5. The stake would fetch 120 billion rupees at current prices, he said. The government holds 98.4 percent in Hyderabad-based NMDC, and 85.8 percent of New Delhi-based Steel Authority of India, the nation’s second-biggest producer, according to Bloomberg data.

“The sheer magnitude of offloading involved may result in an overhang on the secondary capital markets,” Jagannadham Thunuguntla, the head of equities at SMC Capitals Ltd. in New Delhi, said in an interview. “The capital market may find it difficult to absorb such heavy equity.”

GMR Infrastructure Ltd., based in Bangalore, scrapped a $500 million international sale on June 30 as at least 40 companies announced plans to sell more than 350 billion rupees of shares, mostly to foreign institutional investors.

The Securities and Exchange Board of India advocates “a phased approach, as companies may need time” to sell shares, N. Hariharan, a Mumbai-based spokesman for the market regulator, said in an e-mail Aug. 7.

‘Phased Manner’

The proposal “should be positive for markets if introduced in a phased manner,” Franklin’s Jhaveri said in an e-mail response to questions. Franklin Templeton Investments in San Mateo, California manages $482.4 billion worldwide, including more than $3 billion in Indian stocks.

The Finance Ministry sought public comment on the plan on its Web site July 9. Singh’s administration plans to take up the issue after completing 100 days in office, Junior Finance Minister Namo Narain Meena said in a written statement to parliament in New Delhi on Aug. 4. Singh was sworn in on May 22.

The changes are important for protecting shareholders in India, said Andrew Foster, who oversees $2 billion in assets, including Indian securities, at Matthews International Capital Management LCC in San Francisco.

“Such a change is a welcome one,” Foster said in an e- mailed response to questions. “Ensuring a reasonable minimum float would help avoid share price manipulation, scams, abuse by majority shareholders, etc. So I think this would constitute a positive structural change.”