Posts Tagged ‘Food inflation’

Equity News Update

DOMESTIC NEWS

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Economy

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•The Food Price index increased 13.75 per cent in the week ended October16, sharply lower that the previous week’s annual rise of 15.53 per cent,mainly as vegetables continued to exert downward pressure on account ofa base effect.

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Power

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•Reliance Power Ltd has placed order for 30,000 MW capacity of Boiler,Turbine, Generator Packages (BTG) for its coal based power plants withShanghai Electric Group Co Ltd, the leading global supplier of powerequipments.

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Realty/ Construction

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•Nagarjuna Construction has bagged four projects worth 540 crore in thestates of Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh.

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Capital Goods

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•BGR Energy Systems has bagged a 2,168-crore balance of plant (BoP)contract from Hyderabad-based Thermal Powertech Corporation of IndiaLtd. The project is funded by Rural Electrification Corporation (REC) as thelead lender with consortium of banks.

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Automobile

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•Maruti Suzuki India (MSI) is planning to ramp up its service centres by amassive 1,500 outlets by 2015 in line with its expansion of productioncapacity to over 17 lakh units annually. This enhancement is expected toresult in additional employment of about 22,000 people by the servicenetwork operators.Information Technology

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•Wipro Ltd, India’s No 3 software services provider, secured an IT servicescontract from Electricity North West Ltd, which operates the electricitydistribution network in north-west England.

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•Tata Consultancy Services announced an ASP (application service provider)initiative with Strate, the licensed Central Securities Depository (CSD) inSouth Africa. This joint venture with TCS, for the TCS BaNCS SecuritiesProcessing solution, will provide best-in-class and leading-edgetechnology to mid-tier players in the South African market.

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Pharmaceuticals

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•Strides Arcolab has received tentative approval from US Food and DrugAdministration (FDA) for one new drug application (ANDA) for fixed dosecombination of Lamivudine and Zidovudine tablets 150mg/300mg underthe expedited review provisions of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDSRelief (PEPFAR).

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•Biocon will invest $161 million in a facility in Malaysia, joining a number ofIndian companies that have chosen to establish facilities in the South-EastAsian country.

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Oil & Gas

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•Petronet LNG plans to set up a 1,200-MW gas-based power plant linked toits Dahej terminal and will seek the approval of its board in a month. Theproject would be financed through internal accruals and debt. Thecompany has already acquired about 50 hectares of land for the project.

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INTERNATIONAL NEWS

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•US third quarter GDP expanded at a 2.0 percent annualized pace, followinga 1.7 percent rise the prior quarter. The latest figure matched analysts’projections for a 2.0 percent gain. Year-on-year, real GDP in the secondquarter is up 3.1 percent, compared 3.0 percent in the second quarter.

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•US new home sales rose 6.6 percent to an annual rate of 307,000 inSeptember from an annual rate of 288,000 in August. hile new home salesremain at relatively low levels, the annual rate has moved well off therecord low of 282,000 set in May. Nonetheless, the annual rate of newhome sales in September is still 21.5 percent below the rate seen in thesame month a year ago.

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•US New factory orders for durable goods in September rebounded 3.3percent, following a 1.0 percent decrease in August. The gain inSeptember came in significantly above the consensus forecast for a 1.6percent boost. Excluding transportation, new durables orders fell back 0.8percent, following a 1.9 percent increase in August.

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•US initial claims fell steeply to 434,000 in an October 23 week that isn’tskewed by special factors. The level is the lowest since July as is the fourweekaverage of 453,250. Given that July’s data were distorted byadjustment problems tied to auto retooling, the latest batch of data isperhaps the best so far of the recovery.

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Equity News Round Up 11th – 15th October

DOMESTIC NEWS

Economy

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•Food inflation eased marginally to 16.24% for the week ended September 25, from 16.44% in the previous week, as improved supplies lowered prices.

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Capital Goods

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•BHEL has bagged a `3,700-crore from Karnataka Power Corporation Ltd for setting up the 700 MW Bellary Thermal Power Station in Karnataka.

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•Lanco Infratech informed that its Vidarbha power project based in Maharashtra, has achieved financial closure. The company has raised debt to the tune of `5,549 crore to fund the project which has an estimated cost of around `6,936 crore. The rest of requirement is funded by equity of `1,387 crore.

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•Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has bagged `1,585 crore orders in July-September period from the construction segment. Of the `1,585 croreorders, `435 crore order is for construction of building projects fromleading developers while `781 crore orders is from “clients forconstruction of hotel, office building and add on orders from its ongoing airport and commercial building projects”.

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Automobile

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•Hero Honda has launched a limited edition of its 100cc motorcyclePassion Pro, priced at `46,300 (ex-showroom Delhi).

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Realty/ Construction

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•IVRCL Infrastructure and Projects said its various divisions have wonorders worth `1,120 crore from sectors including power and transportation. The company’s water division bagged the highest `451crore order, followed by `440 crore by building divisions,`136 crore by transportation division and `92 crore by power division.

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•Punj Lloyd Group has bagged a `539-crore contract from the state owned gas utility GAIL India for laying a natural gas pipeline from Dabholto Bangalore. The project will be executed over a period of 13 months.

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Pharmaceutical

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•Cadila has got approval from US health regulator to market high blood pressure treatment tablets, Losartan Potassium and Losartan Potassium and HCTZ in the American market. The US Food and Drug Administration approval has been granted to the firm’s subsidiary Zydus Cadila, for Losartan Potassium tablets in the strengths of 25 mg, 50 mg and 100 mg and for Losartan Potassium and Hydrochlorothiazide tablets in the strengths of 50/ 12.5 mg and 100/25 mg.

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Power

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•NTPC may invest over `10,000 crore to set up a 2,640 megawatt (Mw)thermal power project at Gidarbaha in Punjab. The Project shall be setup as regional power project by NTPC and would also be the company’s first in the state.

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

•US Pending Home Sales Index jumped more than four percent for asecond straight month, to 82.3 in August (2001 = 100). The prior month was revised to 78.9, shaving July’s gain to 4.5 percent. The readings point to a second straight jump for existing home sales which surged nearly eight percent in August.

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•US non-farm payroll employment fell by 95,000 jobs in September following a revised decrease of 57,000 jobs in August. Economists had expected employment to come in flat compared to the loss of 54,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month.

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•UK output price index rose 4.4% annually in September, compared with a4.7% gain in August. The increase was a touch higher than the expected 4.3% rise. Output prices gained 0.3% month-on-month after stagnating in August. Excluding food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, output prices increased 4.6% annually.

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•The Japanese Cabinet approved a 5.05 trillion yen ($62 billion) new stimulus package to boost the economy amid widespread concerns that it could slip back into recession. The new package, which will befinanced by an extra budget, is aimed at addressing labor market issues,social welfare and healthcare services. The government is trying to finalize this additional budget by the end of this month.

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Equity News 27th September – 1st October

DOMESTIC NEWS

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Economy

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·Food inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rose to 15.46 per cent for the week ended September 11, primarily due to rise in prices of potatoes and onions. Food inflation stood at 14.77 per cent during the corresponding week in 2009 and at 15.1 per cent during the previous week ended September 4.
Realty/ Construction ·IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects Ltd (IVRCL) has bagged orders worth `750
crore for four laning and improvement of Karanji-Wani-Ghuggus – Chandrapur Road Maharashtra State Highway – 6&7 in Yavatmal and Chandrapur district on DBFOT basis.


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Cement

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·J K Lakshmi Cement would invest `1,800 crore over the next three-four years to double its cement production capacity to 10 million tonnes.

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Oil & Gas

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·GAIL India will make capital investment of around `40,000 crore ($8.8 billion) by 2014-15, mainly to expand its pipeline network and boost petrochemicals capacity.

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Telcommunication

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·Kavveri Telecom has bagged a contract worth `30 crore from one of the telecom operators for the supply of equipment and antennas. The order is to be completed within a year.

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·Bharti announced its entry into the fast-growing mobile handset business as group firm Beetel launched eight handsets in the price range of `1,750- 7,000. Bharti is India’s number one mobile service provider with over 140 million subscribers and the company recently acquired Zain Telecom in Africa to expand its footprint in 16 countries.

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Capital Goods

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·BHEL said it is in talks with SAIL and Vizag Steel to tie up for manufacturing high grade steel, while Korean steel maker Posco may join the proposed joint venture company as a technology partner.

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·Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd has got a contract worth `2,665 crore ($583 million) to set up a 1,200 megawatts coal-fired power plant at Chhattisgarh in central India.

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Paint

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·Berger Paints India Limited has proposed to set up a paints manufacturing complex at Hindupur in Anantapur district of Andhra Pradesh comprising three units and involving an investment of around `350 crore.

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Pharmaceuticals

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·Aurobindo Pharma has received USFDA approvals for ampicillin and.sulbactam injections in bottle, single-use vial and bulk pack formats.

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Ampicillin and sulbactam is a sterile semi-synthetic penicillin product falling under the anti-infective segment.

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FMCG

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·Procter & Gamble India (P&G) is set to bring in one of its biggest global brands–Wella hair colour—as it looks to strengthen its health and beauty business in India. This is the first time that the detergents-to-diaper maker will enter the Indian hair colour market, which is dominated by L’Oreal India’s L’Oreal Excellence Crème and Garnier, and Godrej Consumer Products.

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INTERNATIONAL NEWS

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·US Fed left policy rates unchanged but appears to have begun preparations for additional easing-possibly at the post-election November FOMC. The fed funds target range was left unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent and, again, the Fed stated that this rate is expected to remain low for an “extended period.”

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·US Housing starts showed unexpected strength in August with even the single-family component increasing. Housing starts in August jumped 10.5 percent after rising a modest 0.4 percent in July. The August annualized pace of 0.598 million units clearly topped analysts’ expectations for 0.550 million units and is actually up 2.2 percent on a year-ago basis. The gain in August was led by a 32.2 percent surge in multifamily starts, following a 36.0 percent increase in July. The single-family component rebounded 4.3
percent after dipping 6.7 percent in July.

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·US Existing home sales rose 7.6 percent in August to a 4.130 million annual rate, up substantially from July’s 3.840 million rate (revised from 3.830).

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Gains swept regions with supply coming down a bit, at a still extremely swollen 11.6 months. Prices are softening, down 1.9 percent to a median $178,600. The gain in sales was predicted by the pending homes sales report released early in the month, data that popped higher.

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Weekly Update 26th – 30th July 2010

The markets witnessed good buying in the week gone by as the corporates from U.S. to Europe showed good performance raising the confidence in the strength of the global economic growth. Continuous buying by the foreign institutions and the strength in the developed markets helped stocks to scale 29 months high. U.S. Fed chief Ben S. Bernanke said that central bank would take additional action if the world’s largest economy does not continue to improve.

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European Banks Stress test result showed that from a sample of 91 European banks, representing 65% of the European market in terms of total assets, 7 banks would see their Tier 1 capital ratios fall below 6%. The focus of the test was mainly to assess the ability of the banks to absorb possible shocks on credit and market risks, including sovereign risks over a 2 years horizon, until the end of 2011. The test revealed that the aggregate Tier 1 ratio, used as a common measure of banks’ resilience to shocks, under the adverse scenario would decrease from 10.3 percent in 2009 to 9.2 percent by the end of 2011 (compared to the regulatory minimum of 4 percent and to the threshold of 6 percent set up for this exercise). However investors are still ambiguous about the credibility of the test as it ignores the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt assuming a case of no default by Greece or any other European country.

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India Inc. has so far shown good performance. The net profit of 339 companies that have declared results has grown by 25.5 percent and sales have shot up by 17.8 percent compared to corresponding quarter last year. The annual monsoon rains improved 24 percent from the deficit in the previous week, but were still 17 percent below normal in the week to 21July 2010, as per the data of the India Meteorological Department on Thursday, 22 July 2010. The seasonal monsoon rains during 1 June to 22 July 2010 were 12 percent below normal.

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The expectation of another 25bps hike in policy rates has already been built in the market. Market would take a cue from what RBI says in its monetary policy on 27th July about the health of domestic market and the steps in its act of balancing growth while anchoring inflationary expectations.

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Trend of Indian Stock Markets is up since a month and now the world markets are also participating in the rally. The rise in Base metal commodities is giving more steam to the rally as that is a reflection of increasing demand for metals in the industry. Nifty has support between 5315-5250 levels and Sensex between 17700- 17500 levels.

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Better than expected earnings amid optimistic equity market bestowed the much needed direction to the commodity market and thus it headed for biggest gain since March. In the meantime, dollar is going down and likely to trade in a negative territory as investors are moving back to the risky asset, which is appearing more promising in current context. Gold is narrating the same story and it is moving in a range with downside bias. Gold silver ratio has declined as silver outperformed gold, getting support from terrific rise in base metals prices. Energy complex has ignored the negative news and shore up on better results and strong technicals. But yes, it’s a time to book profit in spices as they are overbought now, especially pepper.

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Weekly Update 19th – 23rd July 2010

The concerns over recovery in global economy resurfaced in investors mind as China economy grew 10.3 percent in the second quarter showing moderation from 11.9 percent expansion in the first quarter. In U.S., consumer confidence dropped in July to the lowest level in the year to 66.5 from 76 in previous month and factory output too fell by 0.4 percent in June.

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The minutes released by the office of the Federal Reserve said that “The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside”. The statement and weak data only added to the worries and led to the decline in most of the global markets.

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India’s Industrial Production growth came surprisingly low to 11.5 percent in May from a year earlier and the April growth was revised downward to 16.5 percent from 17.6 percent. It is expected that the Industrial Production will remain close to double digits as some of the leading indicators like vehicle sales remained buoyant in June.

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Keeping a vigil on the liquidity and in order to ensure smooth credit lines for both government and corporate to sustain the growth momentum, RBI has further extended the second liquidity adjustment facility (SLAF) on a daily basis till July 30, 2010. Strong credit growth in Banking system and Industrial production together with high food inflation may influence RBI to raise policy rates by another 25 bps in its first quarter review on 27th July.

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The latest statement by the IMD that the monsoon up to 15 July has so far been 14 percent below the long period average is a cause of concern.July, especially being the most important month for sowing the Kharif crops has led to the alteration of earlier beliefs that going ahead food inflation will moderate.

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Mostly world markets are in downtrend though Indian stock market is still in uptrend. The base metal commodities are not able to rise which is showing the underlying uncertainty in the markets. One should be cautious in such markets.

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Nifty has support between 5280-5220 levels and Sensex between 17600-17400 levels.Indian markets have gone up substantially in last one and half month and dollar index has fallen sharply from higher levels but the Indian rupee has not moved much which is a sign of concern as rupee should have strengthened in such an environment.

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Lack of clarity with reference to the direction of world economy is painting a hazy picture for commodity market. Even uncertain outcome of economic releases and result of second quarter is giving little direction to the commodities. Investors are refraining to make large position in current situation. This week, we have important data form UK and Canada. Housing data can give further direction to base metals. Bullions can trade in a slim spread. Expiry of July contract in NCDEX may result in more volatility in all agro commodities. After witnessing a multi week high some spices may see a pause in rally.

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Equity Market News 7th – 11th June

Economy

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·Food inflation rose to 16.55% for the week ended May 22 on account of high prices of pulses, fruits and vegetables. Inflation increased by 0.32 percentage point from 16.23% in the previous week.

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Information Technology

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·Take Solutions entered into a strategic partnership with Reliance Life Sciences to supply its unique PharmaReady eCTD, SPL and PPM modules.

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Pharmaceutical

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·Aurobindo Pharma has received a final approval from the US health regulator for sale of Ceftazidime, used to treat respiratory infections, in the American market. The company has bagged the final approval from US Food and Drug Administration for two variants of the drug.

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·Ranbaxy Laboratories’ UK-based subsidiary is recalling a single lot of its drug Gabapentin, used in the treatment of nerve pain, from the UK market for updating mandatory safety information on them.

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·Lupin has received the US Food and Drug Administration’s approval for marketing and distributing Lamotrigine tablets, used for treating bipolar disorders, in American markets. The company has received approval for Lamotrigine tablets in 25 mg, 100 mg, 150 mg and 200 mg strengths.

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Paints

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·Asian Paints has signed a MoU with the Maharashtra government to set up a Rs 735 crore mega project for manufacturing paints and intermediates.

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Realty/ Construction

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·Ahluwalia Contracts India is looking for acquisition or tie-up with a specialised construction firm to help it become an integrated urban infrastructure company. The acquisition will enable the construction company to execute value-added construction projects, like developing multi-level parking and building concrete roads.

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·Jaiprakash Associates will invest around Rs 10,000 crore in the next three years to increase its annual production capacity to 50 million tonnes from a little over 20 million tonnes at present.

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·Lanco Infratech has received an order worth Rs 91.66 crore from the Airports Authority of India for construction of a terminal in Orissa. The scope of work includes construction of a new terminal building at Biju Patnaik Airport, Bhubaneswar.

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Power

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·NTPC Ltd, India’s top power producer, is set to buy controlling stake in a coal field in Australia in a deal valued at $1 billion to $1.5 billion.

·GVK Power & Infrastructure’s subsidiary has bagged a Rs 850 crore contract for building a highway in Rajasthan. GVK Developmental Projects Pvt Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, has won the bid for four-laning a portion of the national highway.

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Capital Goods

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·State-run power equipments giant BHEL, engineering major Larsen & Toubro (L&T), and Russian firm Power Machines, among others have evinced interest in supplying to Jindal Power’s two thermal plants in Jharkhand. Jindal Power, a subsidiary of Jindal Steel and Power, is executing two supercritical power projects of 1,320mw at Dumka and 660mw at Godda in Jharkhand by 2014. Supercritical power projects are environment-friendly and energy-efficient.

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·Bharat Earth Movers (BEML) has signed a MoU with the Karnataka government at the Global Investors Meet here for establishing another manufacturing complex in the city.

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Textile

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·S Kumars Nationwide Limited (SKNL) has launched its new apparel brand ‘World Player’ in Kerala. World Player’s product range comprises of formal, casual and occasion wear designed to give the customer a more upmarket trendy look.

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Refineries

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·Indian Oil Corp bought 6 million barrels of West African and 1 million barrels of Libyan crude oil via tender for July and August including its first purchase of Nigerian grade Okono.

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Capital Goods

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·Bharat Forge had formed a JV with KPIT Cummins Infosystems to produce a hybrid engine technology, which will hit the market in six months.

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Food Price Index Rose 16.23%

Food price index rose 16.23 per cent in the year to May 15.

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The fuel price index climbed 12.08 per cent.

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Meanwhile, the speed of rise in food prices slackened from the previous week”s annual rise of 16.49 per cent.

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The fuel price inflation also slowed to 12.08 per cent from the previous week”s 12.33 per cent.

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The primary articles index was up 15.90 per cent, compared with the previous week”s annual reading of 16.19 per cent.

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Wholesale prices, however, eased in line with expectations to 9.59 per cent in April from a year earlier.

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This in turn provided further evidence that the RBI will hold off from raising interest rates at least until its next scheduled meeting in July.

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Earlier, Planning Commission Member Abhijit Sen stated that food inflation is likely to decrease to 4 to 5 % by November.

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This is from the current over 16 % after the arrival of Kharif (summer) crops.

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Meanwhile, he added that farm sector growth will be altered upwards to 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This, however, is from the earlier estimate of minus 0.2 %.

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Prices have started falling from March after good Rabi arrival.

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Moreover, for some commodities such as onion and potatoes, the decline is very sharp.

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But, however, the overall prices are very high and after Kharif season, prices will commence to decline.

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He also said that it is quite possible food inflation will decline to 4-5 % by November this year.

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On the other hand, experts had predicted a decrease in food inflation with the arrival of Rabi crops in April.

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Mainly due to high prices of vegetables and fruits, food inflation carried on increasing and rose to 16.49 % for the week ended May 8.

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had expressed optimism that overall inflation would decline to 5-6 % by December.

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In addition, on farm sector growth, Sen said growth is expected to be 0.2 % in 2009-10.

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This is due to the upward revision in production in third advance estimate.

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In 2010-11, the farm sector growth is likely to be 5-6 % if met department forecast on monsoon comes true.

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Foodgrains production has been revised upwards to 218.19 million tonnes from 216.85 million tonnes quoted in the second advance estimate released in February.

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Wheat production is projected at a record 80.98 million tonnes in 2009-10.

SOYABEAN “Influenced by ………..”

Double digit food inflation has become a nightmare for Indian economy. Hot discussion is still on. But the question is how oil seeds will contribute in food inflation,  which is the major part of it and the second largest import item of India. What will be the price behavior of oil seeds in futures? Let us have a look.

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PAST YEAR MOVEMENT.

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If we have a look at the price movements of soyabean in the year 2009, it had started its yearly rally at around Rs 1900 per quintal with recovery in international palm oil and energy prices; it touched a yearly high of Rs 2824 per quintal. Smart recovery in international demand mainly from China and India coupled with crop loss in Brazil and Argentina played crucial role in giving upside to the international oilseeds and edible oil prices. Zero import duty on crude edible oil and very nominal duty on refined palmolein have favoured the import over domestic oils at the expenses of Indian oilseed producers and crushers.

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In the oilseeds complex, soybean futures gave the investors the second highest return of 21.86% after CPO at 28.03%.

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However, by the end of 2009, prices cooled off significantly and glimpsed a downside of and respectively.

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A ROAD TRIP TO CHINA………..

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In a very short time, China has built up what is likely the world’s largest soybean processing sector to produce soymeal & soyoil. U.S. has become.one of the major beneficiaries to satisfy the insatiable demand of China. China is the main driver of global soybean prices. The increasing demand.for animal protein in China & competing demand for its farmland, the country will not be able to increase its production & will have to import the.commodity to retain its huge appetite. China accounted for 79 percent of U.S. soybean exports in the week ended April 8,2010 according to a U.S.

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Department of Agriculture report. China is forecasted to account for 54 % of global imports of the oilseed, and 25% of purchases of the edible oil.this year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

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EXIM SCENARIO

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During FY09-10, the soy meal exports were lower as compared to previous year except the month of October due to higher export price. Soyabean oil imports may exceed last year’s 990,000 tonne as the premium for soyabean oil over palm oil contract., Soyabean oil costs $92.66 a tonne more than palm oil, according to Bloomberg data. The premium narrowed to $60.81 on March 31, the lowest since November 7, 2007, reducing the appeal of palm oil, its substitute.

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SEMINAR OUTCOME

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Based on the outcome of meeting at 31st All India seminar on rabi oilseeds & oil trade and industry on 12th March, 2010 at New Delhi, total soyabean production has been set lower for this year at 85 lakh tonnes. The marketable surplus for crushing is also estimated to be lower at 75 lakh tonnes. The peak oilseed crushing season is the second half of the financial year, in which mills sign most of their meal supply contracts with overseas agencies. The Advance estimates peg oilseed production at 26.32 million tonnes, as compared to 28.16 million tonnes in last year second advance estimate which is 1.84 million tonnes less than the earlier estimates for 2008-09. However, the resulting overall production of Rabi oilseeds is lower than the earlier year’s 2nd advance estimates of 2007-08 & 2008-09 respectively.

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PRICE ANALYSIS of CURRENT SCENARIO

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NCDEX soybean futures have always been tracking the futures at CBOT& BMD alongwith the oilseeds complex futures at both NCDEX & MCX. This year soybean futures prices have been trading downtrend to sideways, starting the year at 2382 levels to a contract low of 1966.00 levels registered a decline of 13.72 % at the NCDEX.

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At CBOT soybean futures hit a three-month high, upbeat economic data from China strengthened the outlook for U.S. agriculture export demand & tracking firm crude oil market. The current status at the NCDEX & CBOT future market for soybean is in backwardation condition, where the prices of the forth-coming contracts are trading lower than the current month. This reveals that the overall trend is still bearish for this commodity. The factors supporting the bearish trend are:

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•Lack of fresh fundamentals & poor export demand.

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•Subdued trading activity.

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•According to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the soybean stocks as on 1st April is at 4.5 million tonnes.

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•Factors such as record output in Brazil and Argentina is limiting the rally.

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SO, WHAT NEXT?

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In short term, the soybean futures are expected to trade on a positive note due to short covering and fresh buying at lower levels. In medium term, the future market may get some initial strength, taking a support at 2000 levels & also from the lower dollar and higher crude oil prices. If crude oil prices continue to rise, production cost of soybeans likely will continue to rise, & these higher costs necessitate higher corn and soybean prices for farmers to be profitable. However, downside is expected to be limited based on recovery of soybean prices since the beginning of month of April.

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We can expect the futures to witness the level of 2400 in the months to come.

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Milk, Fruits and Pulses Raised Food Inflation to 17.70%

Higher prices of milk, fruits and pulses raised food inflation to 17.70% for the week ended March 27.

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This was due to the expectations that RBI may further tighten rates in its annual monetary policy on April 20.

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Meanwhile, food inflation in the previous week stood at 16.35%.

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The overall inflation for March is likely to cross the double digit mark.

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This is with prices of vital items increasing and fears of food inflation spreading to manufactured goods.

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The overall inflation, which includes variation in prices of food and non-food items, was 9.89 per cent in February.

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On an annual basis, pulses became dearer by 32.60 per cent, milk by 21.12 per cent, fruits 14.95 and wheat by 13.34 per cent.

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Moreover, on a weekly basis, the index for food articles rose by 0.9 per cent as fish marine, milk, fruits, masur and vegetables became costlier.

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In order to rein in inflation, the PM is holding a meeting of the core committee of Chief Ministers with representations from 10 states and senior Cabinet ministers.

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The core group of chief ministers comprises Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, West Bengal, Punjab, Gujarat, Haryana, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

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Besides CMs, the other members of the committee are Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Food and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar and Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

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General inflation has already surpassed RBI”s March end projection of 8.5 per cent.

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On the other hand, RBI governor D Subbarao had also said that the apex bank will carry on its exit from monetary stimulus policy to check high inflation and ensure sustainable growth.

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Earlier, according to the government data, released yesterday states the India”s Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 14.86 % in the month of February 2010 as against a year ago, which is lower than January”s annual growth of 16.22 %.

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During the month of February 2010, the CPI for Industrial Workers reduced by 2 points to 170.

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Also, India”s annual wholesale inflation rose to 9.89 % in February 2010 as compared to an increase of 8.56 % in January 2010 and 3.50 % against a year ago.

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The wholesale price inflation is more closely watched in India because it covers a higher number of products.

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The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) based inflation rate is rising quite sharply ever since it came out of the negative territory in September 2009.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

Hello Friends, here, we bring you the weekly overview of the Indian as well as of the Global economy and  latest global business and industry updates.

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Weekly Update of The Market (08th-12th February)

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After starting the year on a good note & Indices making fresh highs within few weeks many Asian markets have corrected between 7 to 10%.

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The global sell off over sovereign debt problems in Europe and an unexpected rise in jobless claims in US put investors on the defensive mode.

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The anxiety about sovereign debt in Greece, Portugal and Spain sparked a sell-off in the Euro & has led strength to US dollar.

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Foreign investors sell off is an outcome of dollar-carry-trade unwinding as when they borrowed the dollar was cheap & now it is recovering.

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Investors viewed the markets in year 2010 with confidence in view of recovery gaining momentum is now shaken over the debt problems, nascent economic recovery & confidence of the governments that stand behind the euro.

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Efforts of China to curb lending preventing overheating in economy also pose a risk to derail the global recovery.

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Back at home, the effect of turmoil in the international market also made government to think its strategy on ambitious disinvestment programme.

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🙂

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Lukewarm response to the NTPC, the much awaited issue managed to get subscription of just 1.2 times on its closing day.

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The maximum bid of 20.87 crore shares was put by Indian institution under the first time adopted French Auction route.

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This has challenged the finance Ministry hopes on the proceeds from disinvestments to make up the sliding revenue & rising expenditure.

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While it looks that PSU disinvestment may not yield desired results on market weakness, the 3G auction i.e. expected to garner Rs. 35,000 crore could be postponed to next fiscal year.

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🙂

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The fate of some of the IPO’s like NMDC, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Ltd and Rural Electrification Corporation that are on the disinvestment agenda before March 31, looks tough to sail through, if the stock markets do not rise and big investors do not come back.

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On the contrary, Banks like Bank of Baroda & Indian Bank that were expected to raise money overseas have put now their plans on hold.

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🙂

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The good news from the external sector continued as the data showed a 9.3% annual increase in exports in December to $14.6 billion, a second consecutive month rise.

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While imports increased by 27.2% from a year earlier to $24.75 billion.

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Food inflation remained at high levels & rose to 17.56% in the week ended 23 January 2010 from 17.40% in the previous week on the back of rising pulses & potato prices.

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Markets are likely to take a closer view of the advance estimates on economic growth for the current fiscal ending March 2010 scheduled to be released on Monday.

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🙂

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In the days to come an activity in the sectors like railways, fertiliser, textiles, pharma, education, power and infrastructure may be seen on expected positive policy announcements and budgetary sops.

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It was clearly mentioned last week that world markets are going in downtrend and one should be careful in such a scenario and that one should be moving in cash.

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Now the markets have taken a very sharp fall last week due to rise in Dollar Index and fall in all asset classes.

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🙂

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The coming week might see some counter rally from lower levels.

Nifty faces resistance between 4900-5000 levels and Sensex between 16400-17000 levels.

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🙂

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If we talk about commodity markets then one can see that strengthening dollar and lack of firm global cues had pressurized commodities prices to move southward.

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Investors are selling riskier assets and putting their money in dollar as a safe haven buying.

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Debt concerns facing Greece, Portugal and Spain coupled with dollar index which is trading above the mark of 80 is most likely to compel commodities to trade lower.

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French and euro zone GDP, USD advance retail sales, USD U. of Michigan Confidence will give further direction to commodities.

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Investors should keep an eye on gold – silver ratio.

It was 58:1 few months back, now reached to 67:1 on MCX, heading towards the level of 70:1.

It is demonstrating more selling in silver.

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🙂

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Stay Tuned for More on weekly updates.

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