Posts Tagged ‘export’

INFLATION – “THE SILENT CREEPER” Part 2

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Hello Friends here we come up with an extension of our previous blog, INFLATION –  “THE SILENT CREEPER”.

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Inflation Silent Creeper Part 2

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In previous Blog we had touched upon the impacts of inflation on economy in current scenario and the reasons for the inflation.

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Now in this part we would look into the possible Measures to check inflation.

Measures to check inflation:


•  To give immediate relief from inflationary pressure, government is planning to check the supply deficiency.

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It has allowed importing sugar.

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It will import rice, as rice production is expected to drop in 2010.

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Import duties on oil seeds have been slashed.

•  Money supply should be checked, otherwise in the time of scarcity excess liquidity will accelerate inflation further.

•  Distribution process should be very fast and transparent.

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Currently we need a well managed and coordinated distribution of stocks through PDS (Public Distribution System), open market sales of public stocks etc.

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Hoarding should be avoided here and government should keep an eye on this.

•  This rising inflation has become a major threat for economy.

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The only key way to check the inflation is to bridge the gap between demand and supply, which may control the price rise.

•  Unfortunately, Indian agriculture is characterized by low input and low output systems.

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Hence we have to increase the productivity.

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For example: Yield of paddy in India is only 2.9 tonnes/hectare as compared to 7.5 tonnes/hectare in US.

•  Check the rising cost of cultivation.

Increasing land, labour, fertilizers and other inputs are discouraging farmers to produce more in absence of sufficient liquidity.

•  Apart from grain, government should also create buffer stocks or strategic reserve of oil seeds and other crop, so that it can release it at the time of crisis.

Next Blog we would try to know about the other concerns in Indian economy regarding the parameters to check inflation.

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Stay Tuned for more on this.

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Coconut Development Board Urges Govt to End Dependence on Import

On Wednesday, the Coconut Development Board organized a seminar and the main discussion over there was the hurdles in boosting production of coconut in West Bengal.

Mr Sugata Ghose, Director, Coconut Development Board, identified several factors responsible for poor production of coconut in the State.

They included lower oil content of copra, little headway in the effort to produce high copra yielding coconuts, limited production of coconut on commercial scale, difficulties in procuring good copra from the Andamans due to restriction on the export of copra from the islands and from Kochi due to high transportation cost and, last but not the least, absence of awareness of the local people about the potential of the coconut crop.

“A few months back, Coconut Development Board has been notified as Export Promotion Council for coconut products and keeping this in view, we’re trying to involve coconut growers, coconut oil millers and coconut product manufacturers not only to step up coconut processing in West Bengal but also to boost production of value-added and processed coconut products in the country,” Mr Ghose observed.

Mr Ashok Sethia, President, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, said that the overdependence on imported oil totally neglecting local growers and the local oil industry was a dangerous policy being pursued by the government.

Futures Trading in Rice, Sugar and Pulses Should be Banned

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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'Futures trading in rice, sugar and pulses should be banned'

‘Futures trading in rice, sugar and pulses should be banned’:

A parliamentary panel today suggested that futures trading should be banned in case of wheat, rice, sugar and some pulses till the country becomes self sufficient in these food items.


The Estimates Committee asked the government to bring a new legislation to control the retail prices of essential commodities like rice,wheat, pulses, edible oils, sugar, milk and vegetables.


On futures trading, the report said: “Since food security of the country is at the stake, the Committee recommends that futures trading in wheat, rice, tur dal, urad dal and sugar should be banned till the country achieves self-sufficiency in the production of these items on a continuous basis”.


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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see exports of Spice declining and on the other hand price of pulses rising up 80% in a year time.

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Spice exports decline 1.3% in April-October:

Exports of spices fell 1.3 per cent in volume and 1.6 per cent in value during the April-October period of the current financial year.


According to the latest estimates of Spices Board, total exports in the period were 280,885 tonnes valued at Rs 3,031.59 crore against 284,560 tonnes valued at 3,080.25 crore in the same period last year.


Pepper exports suffered a serious setback as the figures dropped to 11,500 tonnes valued at Rs 179.16 crore as against 14,750 tonnes valued at Rs 246. 70 crore in the same period last year.


Export of chilli also declined to 100,500 tonnes valued at Rs 706.50 crore as against 121,500 tonnes valued at Rs 660.17 crore.


Coriander exports had a better performance at 25,250 tonnes valued at Rs 128.12 crore against 17,100 tonnes valued at Rs 116.80 crore.

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Pulse prices rise up to 80 per cent in one year:

The government today said prices of pulses have surged by up to 80 per cent in the national capital over the last one year.


While prices of tur have gone up by 80 per cent in the last one year to Rs 90 a kg, that of moong dal surged 74 per cent to Rs 82, according to the data presented by Food and Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar in a written reply to the Lok Sabha.


Even import of about 16 lakh tonnes of pulses between April and October has not eased pressure on the prices, the data showed.

Not just pulses, prices of sugar have almost doubled to Rs 38 a kg.

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Vegetable Prices to Ease by January : Planning Commission

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Major Agri-Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

Vegetable Prices to Ease by January : Planning Commission

Vegetable Prices to Ease by January : Planning Commission

Planning Commission Deputy Chairperson Montek Singh Ahluwalia Sunday said he expected vegetable prices to ease by January.

“At the end of a bad monsoon, the big pressure is on vegetables.

The annual inflation rate for food articles was sharply higher at 13.39 percent for the week under review.

Similarly, the annual rise in the index for pulses was 23.44 percent and that for cereals was 11.15 percent.

He also said that “By December-January, you will see at least something (fall in prices) for vegetables, there will be a different position,” Ahluwalia added.

“It (vegetable) is not something you can import, but in general, certainly in management of public distribution system, we are in a strong position as far as stocks are concerned,” he contended.

“There is more than enough food stock in the country. We do not have to worry on that score.”

The Reserve Bank of India and the government have both warned that India’s annual rate of inflation based on wholesale price index for all commodities would rise to 6-6.5 percent by March, while the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council has pegged it at 6 percent.

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can see that NMCE has kick started trading in gold guinea contract. 🙂

NMCE kicks starts trading in gold guinea contract:

National Multi Commodity Exchange of India (NMCE), the first commodity exchange of the country, has started trading in gold guinea contract to reach to the masses.

The commex has tied-up with Muthoot Group to set up multiple delivery centres.

The guinea would be a Muthoot branded BIS certified serially numbered,available in a tamper proof packing.

The purchase/delivery of the gold guinea will be made available through the Muthoot Finance’s 22 centers across the country, which include Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Jaipur, Mumbai, Indore, Delhi, Rajkot, Kanpur, Lucknow in the North and Trivandrum, Kollam, Kottayam, Calicut, Chennai, Coimbatore, Madurai, Truichi, Bangalore, Mangalore, Hyderabad, Trichur.

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Lower Output of Rice will Shift More Demand for Wheat

Hello Friends, just an extension of our previous blog “wheat may move in range with up bias”.

Lower Output of Rice will Shift More Demand for Wheat

Lower output of rice and maize will shift more demand for wheat

Despite record wheat production in 2007-08, wheat consumption in 2008/09 is estimated to have declined to around 70.2 million tonnes from 76.2 million tonnes in the previous year due to high prices.

Domestic prices have shot up after a significant hike in the minimum support price discouraging consumption.

Highly subsidized rice distribution program of some state government also tempered wheat demand.

Domestic wheat consumption in 2009-10 is expected to rise by 70.2 million tonnes to 76.88 million tonnes ; likely decline in rice and maize production may lift wheat demand.

Export ban may continue, import at this juncture is viable

With bumper production and significant built up of stock wheat export was earlier estimated to be 2 million tonnes in 2009-10.

Even government relaxing ban placed in February, 2007 allowed two million tonnes of government-to government export.

But weak monsoon and poor sowing prospects of paddy forced
government to scrap government-to-government export allowed earlier.

It is likely that government would continue with its stance on export of wheat at least till the end of current marketing year.

After importing wheat in 2006-07 (6.2 million tonnes) and 2007-08 (1.8 million tonnes), India did not import any wheat in 2008/09 as the domestic supply situation improved considerably.

As domestic supply situation is comfortable, import is also not likely in the current season.

However imports are currently viable as international prices of wheat (equivalent to domestic mill quality) are lower.

Ukraine origin wheat is trading $ 180-200 per tonne and

Australian wheat is at $ 210-230 per tonne, while wheat prices on Southern India is at around $275-300 per tonne.

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In Next Blog, We would touch upon the aspects like Domestic and International price trend of wheat. demand and supply scenario in coming months, price trend and on Export Ban.

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Sweetness Of Sugar – Part 1 :)

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “Commodity Corner Series” 🙂

Sweetness of Sugar

Sweetness of Sugar

We would touch upon aspects like seasonality,cyclic nature and analysis of price trend of Sugar.

The Commodity

Sugar is the most plentiful economic sweetener and India’s second largest agro-processing industry.

There are more than 600 installed sugar mills in the country.

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The Seasonality & Cyclic Nature

The crushing season in the country generally starts from October and reaches its peak in January before March end or April of the next year.

It has been seen that during this period, supply arrives in the market and resultantly prices starts falling.

The cyclic pattern of the sugar industry lasts for 3-5 years.

Currently, the domestic sugar market is entering into a severe shortage phase due to sharp decline in production.

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Analysis Of Price Trend

Tracking short term movements as well as the longer term trends seen in and over the last years, one can analyse and assess its prices.

Since 2006, Sugar has been widely talked displaying a continuous bullish rally both in domestic & international market.

In domestic markets, Sugar prices remained bearish in the most part of the year 2007.

Prices surged by almost 30% in the first half of 2008 & regained its sweetness with supportive factors like lower production estimates and rise in export demand.

From July 2008 sugar prices have been maintaining its bullish trend.

In January, 2009 sugar prices reached record high levels.

With an eye on the rising prices, the Central Government announced measures with aim to control sugar prices.

In the month of May, 2009 world sugar prices have surged to a near-three year high, on the back of speculative buying by
funds betting on supply shortfalls in India and Pakistan.

Since October (the beginning of the 2008-09 sugar season), prices in spot and futures market have witnessed a bull run due to lower production estimates for the season.

Market has already breached the long term bearish trend line and presently trading in an interim bullish trend channel.

Speculators, and especially large traders, have really embraced the long side of the Sugar market.

The commodity has one of the best fundamental pictures right now and it is getting a good deal of solid buying.
The sugar market is overbought but it seems that it still has room to move higher in the longterm bull market than imagined.

It has been one of the better performers of the commodities market.

The price of Sugar has more than tripled in about 3 years.

Though, Sugar seems set to lose some of its sweetness for consumers in the time to come.

Sugar prices recently touched a 28-year high of 25.39 cents per pound on September 30, 2009.

This is likely to climb up going forward, because imports by countries such as China, Russia, Mexico and India are set to rise. These countries are consuming more, but producing less of the commodity.

Sugar futures tended to do well in these years.
An investor could have increased his return variability in these years without sacrificing any of his return.

Stay Tuned for more on Sugar Market in commodity corner 😉

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No Global food crisis even after India’s rice export ban :)

No Global food crisis even after India’s rice export ban :)

No Global food crisis even after India’s rice export ban 🙂

No global food crisis is on the cards on account of India’s rice export ban and possible high imports.

A reduction in exports from India and possible imports to the tune of two million tonnes plus is unlikely to spark another global food crisis.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has said that drought in India may slash rice output in the world’s second-largest grower by about 18% this year, cutting global supplies available for importers.

India’s absence in the export market may curb supplies at a time when global stockpiles are forecast by the FAO to drop 3 % to 117.4 million MT by the end of the 2009-2010 season.

In Other major Agri Updates we can see that Deccan floods have made spices too hot to handle.

Turmeric prices have more than doubled from Rs 3,500 per quintal levels in January, causing NCDEX to impose special margin on long positions.


High prices have also led to an increase in acreage of the crop and production is expected to be over 55 lakh bags in 2010, against 35-40 lakh bags this year.

Among other spices, jeera is likely to move up in the medium term on back of good export demand and a bad crop in Syria and Turkey.

Indian Jeera is also quoting a low price in international markets.

Even pepper is expected to remain firm due to low stocks in main producing countries like India, Vietnam and Indonesia and slow arrivals from Brazil.

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No global food crisis is on the cards on account of India’s rice export ban and possible high imports.

A reduction in exports from India and possible imports to the tune of two million tonnes plus is unlikely to spark another global food crisis.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has said that drought in India may slash rice output in the world’s second-largest grower by about 18% this year,cutting global supplies available for importers.

India’s absence in the export market may curb supplies at a time when global stockpiles are forecast by the FAO to drop 3 % to 117.4 million MT by the end of the 2009-2010 season.

In Other major Agri Updates we can see that Deccan floods have made spices too hot to handle.

Turmeric prices have more than doubled from Rs 3,500 per quintal levels in January, causing NCDEX to impose special margin on long positions.

High prices have also led to an increase in acreage of the crop and production is expected to be over 55 lakh bags in 2010, against 35-40 lakh bags this year.

Among other spices, jeera is likely to move up in the medium term on back of good export demand and a bad crop in Syria and Turkey.

Indian Jeera is also quoting a low price in international markets.

Even pepper is expected to remain firm due to low stocks in main producing countries like India, Vietnam and Indonesia and slow arrivals from Brazil.

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