Posts Tagged ‘edible oil’

MUSTARD/RAPESEED SEED

Mustard/Rapeseed oil is the third largest edible oil produced in the world after soy oil and palm oil with accounts of about 12% of the total World’s edible oil production. By crushing rapeseed or mustard seed, oil and meal are obtained. The average oil recovery from the seed is about 33%. The remaining is obtained as cake, which is rich in proteins and is used as an animal feed ingredient. Being an important source of edible oil and feed meal to the country, mustard is undoubtedly the focus of Indian edible oil industry. In EU, rapeseed oil is mainly used for biofuel production.

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Global scenario

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The production and consumption of this oil has been growing at the rate of 4.65% and 5.03% respectively over the last decade. According to USDA, global rapeseed output for 2010/11 is forecast 400,000 tonnes higher this month to 57.1 million as a larger crop in Canada. While world production of mustard oil is estimated to 20-22 million tonnes. Canada is the major producer and exporter of seed and oil followed by Australia. China, European Union, Canada and India are leading producers of mustard seed and consumer as well as. The major seed importing countries are Japan and Mexico and US leads the list of mustard and rapeseed oil importing countries. Global rapeseed exports are estimated 410,000 tonnes higher this month due to lower exports from Ukraine and Russia as record heat wave in August causes crop damage.

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Indian scenario

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The Central Organisation for OilIndustry and Trade, the apex trade body, estimated the country’s mustard seed output at 64.2 lakh tonnes in 2009-10 (October-September) as against 63.5 lakh tonnes a year earlier,
while oil is around 21 lakh tonnes in 2009-10. The country also generates 24 lakh tonnes of oil cake.

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Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana produce the major share of rape /mustard contributing to over 70% of the total Indian produce. The crop accounts for nearly one-third of the oil produced in India, making it the country’s second most important edible oil after groundnut. Mustard oil is consumed wholly in the domestic market. The demand for the consumption of mustard/rape seed comes mainly from eastern and northern areas of the country.


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Hence, India does not export mustard seed but imports some amount of oil. However India exports around 400,000 tonnes of oil cake. Recently due to the dominance of comparatively other cheaper oils like palm and soya, the import share has come down.

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Climatic conditions, especially progress of South-West monsoon is a major factor shaping the fortunes of  mustard seed. Price of other domestic and global oil seeds would also have significant bearing on mustard seed prices. Major trading centres  in mustard seed in the country are Jaipur, Sriganganagar and Alwar in Rajasthan, Hapur in UP, Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkatta.

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Outlook

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The mustard seed futures are likely to trade under selling pressure. Higher warehouse stock, poor buying interest, weakness in soy market, projection of record Kharif oilseeds production due to higher acreage and favorable weather condition is likely keep prices down. As on 13th September, NCDEX warehouses are
having a stock of 123,236 tonnes. Rise in volume, fall in open interest and price is indicating further weakness in the prices.

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Commodity Weekly Commentary 20th – 24th September 2010

Its seems that sky is the limit for bullion counter now a days, as prices surged high to their life time highs on domestic bourses. However, strong Indian rupee limit the upside movement in prices in both gold and silver. In international markets gold hit a record high above $1,280 per ounce last week, as currency market jitters and broader economic uncertainty enticed more investors towards the metal’s safe-haven credentials. The metal’s rise this year has been fueled largely by investor nervousness that stemmed from the fallout from the euro zone debt crisis and from economic data that has suggested global economic growth may be losing momentum.

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Base metals also surged high last week on weakness in dollar index and after reassuring comments from China’s central bank about its plans to keep monetary policy loose. In energy counter crude oil lost its esteem and traded down. Crude traded around $76 per barrel amid low U.S inventories, while Chicago pipeline leak continues weighing on prices as new Tropical Storm Karl threatens the Gulf of Mexican. The EIA report showed a drop in fuel demand by 1% to 19.5 MB. Gasoline also shed 694 thousand barrels to 224.5 MB. This comes at a time where imports have reached their lowest level in five months.

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Unlike metals, agro commodities fell like nine pin, even fall in dollar index could not supported them very much. It was not a good week for spices as sellers were more active than buyers in spot market. Future market reacted in the same fashion. Panic selling was continued in turmeric, jeera and chilli as well. Cardamom was also the victim of arrival pressure and closed down. Stockiest liquidation at higher levels dragged down chana futures on NCDEX as well. With declining prices of churi and korma, guarseed and guargum continuously traded southward.

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Wheat closed down on negative cues. Furthermore, traders preferred profit booking at higher levels in menthe futures. Strong crop projection of soya bean along with rise in crop projection of mustard seed crop in rabi season compelled oilseeds and edible oil futures to trade in negative zone. Higher domestic stocks, imports in the middle of arrivals in the domestic mandies further pressurized the oil seeds prices. As per expectation, the total crop size of soyabean in the current season is likely to be around 95 lakh tonnes, up 2% from last year.

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However there was a commodity which surprised the market with its nonstop three week upside on higher offtake amid tight supply and it was maize.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 6th-10th September 2010

International gold prices rose back above $1250 an ounce for the second time in a week, as government bonds ticked lower together with energy prices. Silver prices also touched a new 16-week high at $19.57 an ounce on international bourses while it made a life time high on MCX.

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Apart from bad economic news globally, a weak Rupee is also pushing up prices in India. Base metal pack also ended higher last week on positive manufacturing and improved jobless data from both China and US which pushed prices higher. However, lower dollar index also supported prices. After being top performer for many days, Nickel has marginally underperformed other base metals as inventories on LME increased. In energy counter, crude oil futures got jiggled in hands of both bulls and bears. Prices remained volatile for the week amid mixed fundamentals.

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On one hand, prices got support from improved economic data but upside was offset by building inventories. The positive sentiment was offset by the effect of the abysmal inventory status report.

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U.S commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week; at 361.7 million barrels. U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range.

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It was an action pack week for agro commodities in which they agro commodities saw big movements. Most of the spices closed on negative note bearing in mind the overseas weakness coupled with arrivals in some spices. Dip in Brazilian and Vietnamese pepper parity put pressure on Indian pepper as well and hence we saw two week continuous weakness. Similar to pepper, jeera futures also dragged down on dull spot trading. There was no respite for turmeric futures and they fell like nine pins for straight seven week on low stock buying amid the news of increase in acreage in Andhra Pradesh.

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Cardamom was sideways, while chilli was marginally up on short covering tracking the firm spot markets. Due to strong arrivals in major mandies coupled with beginning of fresh sowing of kharif pulses, chana futures surrendered their previous gain to some extent. Timely arrival of monsoon in southern and western regions has improved the sowing activity. Selling intensified in oil seeds and edible oil on the back of better crop estimate together with weakness in overseas market. Damaged crops in Russia, Europe and Canada, boosting demand for U.S. supplies to make animal feed, food and fuel revived maize futures. Guar counter was up on lower level buying.

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Weekly Update 9th – 13th August

The last week saw good amount of buying in U.S and other markets as the companies reported better numbers than the expectations in the result season. However the concerns remain over the U.S. recovery as the consumer spending, pending home sales and factory orders were all weaker than projected in June indicating moderation in the second half of the calendar year.

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In China, banking regulator has asked the lenders to conduct a stress test including worst case scenarios of prices dropping 50 percent to 60 percent in cities where they have risen excessively. The test highlights the government concern over the health of property market even after the regulator has tightened the real estate lending to crack down on speculation since mid April.

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Huge foreign money inflow, strong auto sales and manufacturing data together with good monsoon especially in the fortnight ending 4th August 2010 kept the markets on upbeat note. Life Insurance Corporation said that it plans to invest `2 trillion stocks and bonds in the current fiscal year. So far the Insurance major has invested 390 billion in the first quarter including 100 billion in equities.

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Approximately 2080 companies that have announced numbers have shown a mixed picture. The combined net profit of all companies fell 9.2% to 57,560 crore on 20.7% rise in sales to 7,07,925 crore in Q1 June 2010 over Q1 June 2009.

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Stock specific movement in market is likely to continue as some of the major companies like Bharti Airtel, State Bank, Reliance Communication, Suzlon, etc. are coming out with the results in the coming week.

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Pranab Mukherjee has already expressed concerns over the aggressive interest increase as it may moderate the economic growth. The Index of Industrial Production that saw some moderation in growth in May and also revised downward for the month of April is further expected to show some moderation in the month of June. Six core industries having weight of 26.68 percent in IIP have experienced a 3.4 percent expansion in June compared to 6.3 percent in the prior month. The data scheduled to be released on 12th August is likely to influence the markets and may help in gauging the central bank move in the coming months.

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Overall trend of world markets is up. Volatility indicators near lows are a sign of concern as it reflects that investors are not worried at all in taking positions. But till the trend of stock market is up, one should be playing on the long side only. US dollar index fall in last 3 months has also contributed to the rise of various asset classes. Nifty has support between 5350-5300 levels and Sensex between 17800-17600 levels.

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It appears that bulls are dominating bears in commodities. Market is looking very enthusiastic on the back of better results together with buoyant equity market. It is evident by the increased volume of commodity bourses across the globe. Noteworthy decline in dollar index has also supported buying in commodities.

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However, 80 is very good support for dollar index. The week is full of event risk. Traders may refrain to take large position in bullions before FOMC rate decision meeting. CPI and advance retail sales data of US will provide further direction to the base metals. Ongoing hurricane season is likely to keep crude oil in upper range. Severe drought and the decision to halt the export from 15th August to 31st December have stimulated fresh buying in grains and they are continuously moving up. Oil seeds and edible oil complex is looking promising and investors should utilized every dip as buying opportunity.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Most of the commodities finished lower last week on heavy profit booking. Recent bounce back in dollar index compelled commodity traders to quit their long positions. However, some commodities viz., aluminum, nickel and natural gas moved on their own fundamentals and ignored the upside of dollar index. Threat of closure of two mines of Alcoa amid the concern that about three quarters of LME  stockpiles have been tied up by long term financing deals by traders and merchants, raised the premium
on aluminum, sent aluminum prices higher.

Likewise, nickel surged on lower level buying. Rest of the  base metals erased their previous gains to some extent on rise in dollar index amid some negative data.

Gold and silver gave up their previous gain due to the improvement in dollar value. However, recent fall in gold prices brought back smile on consumers face and there is an expectation that import will increase. Negative data, fall in GDP of Japanese economy, higher dollar amid expectation of slower demand of crude in 2010 by EIA hammered crude oil prices and it touched two months low. On the contrary, natural gas jumped on increased seasonal demand. Cold snaps in northwest and Midwest revived the demand of natural gas and it recovered across the bourses, where natural gas is used 72% for heating purpose.

Coming to agro commodities, bears completely dominated all commodities. Selling pressure was witnessed throughout the week. Some short covering in many agro commodities witnessed on Friday.
Less demand from processors amid declining export queries exerted pressure on guar complex. Oil seeds and edible oil complex reacted on improvement in dollar amid new crop estimation by Brazil and Argentina generated selling in futures as well spot market across the board. Fall in crude oil prices gave further pressure on prices. Spices made lower trading range last week. Higher Indian parity, lower export queries in the middle of subdued domestic demand compelled spices to trade low.

Speculative activities in turmeric were on high last week. Throughout the week, December contract traded into upper circuits and April contracts traded moreover on lower side, which increased the gap between contracts to more than 3400 level. Wheat futures cooled down owing to increased supply in spot market. Crushing season of sugarcane has already started which has led to a nonstop decline since last three weeks.