Posts Tagged ‘domestic markets’

Weekly Update 13th – 17th December 2010

The fall in the domestic markets in the week gone by was really painful. The fall was seen across the board; both mid and small size company stocks were heavily punished. SEBI probed in some companies for price rigging reignited the concerns that there may be some cases which are yet to come.

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On the global front, thiswas the week when most of the major developed markets along with the emerging economies closed in positive. The disconnect reveals that overhand in the markets was more related to domestic issues only.U.S. economic data is continuing to point out that environment over there is improving. A consumer sentiment that reflects the strength of consumer spending rose six months high to 74.2 in the first half of December from 71.6 at the end of November.

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U.S. trade deficit in October shrank more that expected to $38.7 billion from a revised $44.6 billion shortfall the month before. Further more, the expected continuance of Bush tax for next two years which is likely to be cleared by U.S. senate in next two weeks will also help in improving sentiments. Japanese economy saw an annualized expansion of 4.5 percent for the quarter ended 30th September against expectations of 4.1 percent. In order to address inflationary pressures in the economy, China once again raised the reserve requirements for the third time in five weeks by 50 bps.

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The recent move takes reserve ratios requirement now to18.5 percent for the biggest banks. Chinese leaders have also indicated that the nation will shift to a tighter, “prudent” monetary policy for next year. Consumer and producer price index rose to 5.1 percent and 6.1 percent respectively for the month of November as against the expectation of 4.7 and 5.1 percent respectively. Moving ahead, we believe that the concerns pertaining to Indian Industrial growth and in turn overall growth of the economy would not be there after seeing the 10.8 percent growth in IIP for the month of October as compared to 4.4 percent last month. Moreover,we also believe that even for the month of November we could see the Industrial growth picking up close to 12 percent.

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The indicators like car sales growth of 20 percent,commercial vehicle sales growing by more than 18 percent and HSBC Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4 in November from 57.2 in previous month give support to our belief.In the forthcoming days we believe we may continue to see bouts of volatility in the markets as nervousness is still there. In short term now we think the advance tax figures would help the markets in gauging the profitability of India Inc. as the result season is approaching. Nifty has strong support between 5900-5840 and Sensex between 19400-19000.In commodity section, bullions counter may trade on volatile path due to lack of clear direction on risk sentiment. Base metal counter will take cues from economic data from US. Crude oil further movement will depend on the demand from China, OECD countries and weather conditions in Europe.

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OPEC members are planning to increase output over the coming months. Copper will continue to make fresh high in near term as the global deficit will push its prices to new levels. The outcome of Central Economic Work Conference in China will further guide the movement in metal counter. In agro pack guar complex may remain on weaker side amid weak export demand. Jeera and peeper maytad lower on selling pressure on news of re-sowing. Mentha oil can tumble lower onarrivals. Soya will remain range tracking mixed movement in CBOT. CPO may trade on higher side tracking firm Malaysian CPO.

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Weekly Update 26th – 30th April 2010

Domestic markets started the week on a negative note on the back of the Greek debt issues and Goldman Sachs fraud issues, but managed to close in the positive terrain supported by firm US markets in line with less than expected hike in Policy Rates & Cash Reserve Ratio by RBI to tame the inflation; Policy rates and CRR increased by 25 bps each. The food price index rose 17.65% in the 12 months to April 10, marginally higher than an annual rise of 17.22% in the previous week. Moreover IMF announcement of India`s growth at 8.5% for the calendar 2011 boosted the sentiments.

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Additionally, announcement of government recapitalization of PSU banks stimulated banking sector and banking stocks were among the major gainers of the week. Good corporate numbers, expectation of good monsoon together with buying by foreign institutions kept the momentum intact for the rest of the week. Going forward market participants globally would be closely watching G20 finance chiefs plan to withdraw economic stimulus as the recovery strengthens.

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The IMF this week said that rising government debt is one of the biggest threats to the world economy.

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Forecast of normal monsoon season by Indian Meteorological department may keep the sentiments positive in the coming week but volatility may rise ahead of the expiry. On the global front, the UK’s economy grew at a slower than anticipated pace in the first quarter. In US, sales of new homes surged by 27 percent in March and orders for most durable goods climbed, indicating the U.S. economy is speeding ahead into the second quarter. Greece troubles that kept the markets jittery especially for the payments approaching in the month of May came to an end after it said that it has sought a relief aid from the European Union to save it from a default.

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US stock markets kept the rally intact which held the other world markets and did not let them fall.

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Shanghai remained under pressure as commodities saw some pressure and profit booking at higher levels. Indian stocks are seeing more strength in cash stocks and banking stocks. Nifty has support between 5200-5100 levels and Sensex between 17400-17200 levels.

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This week is full of event risk, especially from US economy side. Gradually, commodity is retreating from the higher levels but it will be too early to say that it is giving a clear indication for the approaching time. But yes, upside is limited.

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Negative expectation of US GDP figure for the first quarter may hammer the prices. If dollar index trades above the level of 82 then it would keep gold to be in sideways territory. Copper saw three weeks nonstop downside and it is expected to see more downside. Range trading in crude oil is indicating the saturation at the higher levels and market needs big news to see further upside..

FII investment, this year, is the highest ever inflow in India

FDI inflow India Last year Touched 80 Thousand crores

The FII investment of Rs 80,500 crore in 2009 is the highest ever inflow in the country in rupee terms in a single year and comes a year after they pulled out over Rs 50,000 crore.

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FII inflow so far this year has broken the previous high of Rs 71,486 crore parked by foreign fund houses in domestic equities in 2007.

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Market analysts believe that the FII inflow in India may continue in the next year as well, if the liquidity conditions remain strong.

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As per Market experts, FIIs are expected to continue to be positive on domestic markets and in general Indian markets seems to fare well in 2010.

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Delhi-based SMC Capitals Ltd’s Equity Head Jagannadham Thunuguntla has supported the view, saying,

“If liquidity conditions remain strong next year, one can expect FII inflow to remain strong into India even in 2010 as well.”

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The Bombay Stock Exchange’s benchmark sensex, comprising 30 bluechip stocks, has gained more than 70% so far in 2009, one of the best performers among leading global bourses.

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“However, if dollar-carrytrade-unwinding starts, then one can expect rush of FII outflow from the country, resulting in pressure on Indian markets,” he cautioned.

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Significantly, last year the FIIs had pulled out a net Rs 52,900 crore from the domestic bourses — a trend triggered with the collapse of global financial services icon Lehman Brothers in the middle of September 2008.

This selling trend continued till the first two months of the passing year.

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WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK & NEWS CAPSULES :)

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Market Outlook & News Round Up for the Week Gone By !

Market Outlook & News Round Up for the Week Gone By !

The trend of most world markets remains up.

However in coming days, domestic markets are likely to remain sideways with mostly a positive bias and its trajectory will hinge on FII inflows, external environment and also on the announcement made by G20 ministers that stimulus measures would continue until recovery is secured.

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Moreover Q2 results are just round the corner and there is optimism for results as advance tax collections registered a positive growth in the second quarter after witnessing a negative growth in the first quarter.

The US Dollar index movement last week kept all asset classes very volatile.

Nifty has support between 4750-4640 and Sensex between 16000-15500 levels.

As the markets are going higher, expect the volatility to increase.

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News Round Up

Economy

·Inflation further rose to 0.37 per cent for the week ended September 12, from 0.12 per cent in the previous week due to increasing prices of essential food items.

The wholesale price-based inflation stood at 12.42 per cent during the corresponding week a year ago.

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Capital Goods

·BHEL has bagged a Rs 365 crore order from the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited for supply of four steam generators for India’s second 700 MWe nuclear power station, being set up at Rajasthan Atomic Power Project, Kota.

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Automobile

·Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M), India’s largest tractor maker, is planning to consolidate its stake in Swaraj Engines, as part of a plan to expand the diesel engine business.

·Bajaj Auto Ltd is all set to launch the Kawasaki Ninja 250R motorcycle in India on October 5.

The Ninja 250R is considered to be an entry-level sports bike manufactured by Japanese two-wheeler maker Kawasaki.

The bike would be priced between Rs 1.50 lakh and Rs 2 lakh.

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Oil & Gas

·ONGC plans to invest nearly Rs 5,000 crore in appraisal of its oil and gas fields off the country’s east coast, where production is likely to start from mid-2010.

Tata Power, which is implementing the 4000 MW Mundra ultra mega power project, has said it will exceed the 2012 target by 800 MW.

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Retail

Future Group chief Kishore Biyani is looking to hive off hypermarket chain Big Bazaar and list it to unlock value as part of ambitious restructuring and growth plans to become a Rs 25,000-crore group in four years.

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MONEY MARKET & ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Note : For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Investors Wealth Up 80% in Just Over Five Months :)

Investors-gain-Rs25lakh-cr

Investor wealth has increased by over Rs 25 lakh crore in just over five months from the beginning of the current financial year, on improving sentiments in the domestic and global markets.

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According to an analysis of the valuations for the period (Apr 1-Sep 18), the combined market capitalization of all the firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange increased by Rs 25,02,749 crore or nearly 80 per cent.

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Analysts believe the rise in investor wealth has been due to the upbeat market sentiments on indications of global economic recovery.

“The markets have given a healthy return on the back of positive mood among domestic and international investors,” SMC Global‘s Vice President Rajesh Jain said.

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The total market valuation increased to Rs 56, 35,835.75 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 31,33,086.7 crore on Apr 1.

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While, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex has given a healthy return of nearly 70% to hover around 16,700 level in September against 9,900 level in April.

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The Sensex companies, which comprises of about 45 per cent of the total market capitalisation of all the companies, saw its combined market valuation rise by over Rs 10,00,000 crore in the reviewed period.

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The combined market capitalisation of the 30 blue-chip stocks rose to Rs 25,31,831.55 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 15,31,252.34 crore on Apr 1.

However, the total turnover of the Sensex companies dropped to Rs 1,597.42 crore on Sep 18 from 1,705.52 crore on Apr 1.

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Jain also said that the drop in the volumes is due to less participation of retail investors in the markets, which reflects that the run is mainly on account of institutional money, both domestic and international.

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Meanwhile, foreign investment into the Indian stock markets are likely to cross USD 10 billion-mark by the end of this month.

Huge sum of USD 9.8 billion (Rs 47,674 crore) have already been poured into the bourses by overseas entities so far in 2009.

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Note : For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Market trading firm: Sensex hits 10-month high :)

Sensex hits 10-month high

Sensex hits 10-month high

After a gap up opening, the domestic markets are marching towards the northward on the back of strong rally across other Asian markets. Further, bulls are driving the major Indian bourses to its highest in 10 months, with an expectation that the government will increase public spending in the budget next month to boost economic growth.

Buying interest has emerged across all the sectoral indices.

Among the BSE sectoral indices, Metal, Consumer Durable (CD) and Capital Goods (CG) stocks gained by 3.80%, 3.51% and 3.46% respectively.

Overall market breadth is positive. Out of the total 2,482 stocks traded at BSE, 1,670 advanced, 759 declined while 53 remained unchanged.

Gainers from the BSE Sensex Pack are Tata Power Company Ltd,HDFC Bank, Reliance Infrastructure, L&T, Sterlite Industries and ONGC.

SMC Global Securities : Money Wise Be Wise !

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