Posts Tagged ‘domestic investors’

Weekly Update 29th March – 02nd April

The domestic markets had a mixed week; it started weak following RBI hiking the repo and reverse repo by 25 basis points each and growing concerns from the 16-nation Euro zone—first over conflicting signals from the currency bloc on resolving Greece’s debt problems and second over Fitch Ratings lowering Portugal’s sovereign credit outlook.

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But, concluded the week on green zone buoyed by continued liquidity inflow and earnings optimism; both the indices Sensex & Nifty, saw the highest closing levels in more than two years. FIIs bought stocks worth Rs 12125.81 crore this month till 25 March 2010.

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On the whole, over the last few months the confidence of global & domestic investors has resulted in an excellent run up in the domestic markets. Closer home, further rate hike together with hike in CRR is expected in order to anchor inflationary expectation in the next RBI meet which is scheduled on 20th April.

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Increasing capacity utilisation and rising commodity and energy prices are exerting pressure on overall inflation. Taken together, these factors heighten the risks of supply-side pressures translating into a generalised inflationary process. Food inflation in India dipped marginally falling to a five-month low.

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Inflation for the Food Articles group dropped to 16.22% in the week ended March 16, as compared to 16.3% in the previous week. While it is largely anticipated that this time around the increase in interest rates would not be a spoil sport for the markets as the signs of recovery in the growth are promising. Data on Industrial production & more specifically the acceleration in the growth of the capital goods sector points to the revival of investment activity.

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Expectations of the good corporate results as indicated by buoyant advance tax figures & the forecast for the southwest monsoon for 2010 is likely to play a catalyst role for the next direction of the market. On the global economic front; in a bid to restore confidence in their common currency, all 16 euro zone leaders have reportedly agreed to provide joint financial assistance to the debt-laden Greece in tandem with the IMF.

In the US front, Unemployment increased in 27 states in February and dropped in seven, a sign the labor market needs to pick up across more regions to spur consumer spending and sustain the economic recovery.

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Trend of world stock markets is up though China is showing some weakness along with some weakness in commodities. US dollar index rise above 81 has brought uncertainty in world markets and the Euro zone problem in Greece is giving uncertainty to Euro. One should trade carefully in such markets. Nifty has support between 5150-5050 and Sensex between 17200-16800 levels..

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Commodities are moving on their own fundamentals. Recent blow up in dollar index could not give much impact on the commodity prices as it was expected earlier in market. However, with the recent rise in dollar index, upside in commodities seems to be limited. Commodities are now expected to trade in a range after a volatile week. Expected improvement in employment data from US is likely to cap the downside. Agro commodities can perform mix. Spices, especially turmeric and pepper may trade in a range after an upside rally. Same trend may go with chana futures as well whereas guar may firm further.

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Stay Tuned for More Updates :)

Investors Wealth Up 80% in Just Over Five Months :)

Investors-gain-Rs25lakh-cr

Investor wealth has increased by over Rs 25 lakh crore in just over five months from the beginning of the current financial year, on improving sentiments in the domestic and global markets.

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According to an analysis of the valuations for the period (Apr 1-Sep 18), the combined market capitalization of all the firms listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange increased by Rs 25,02,749 crore or nearly 80 per cent.

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Analysts believe the rise in investor wealth has been due to the upbeat market sentiments on indications of global economic recovery.

“The markets have given a healthy return on the back of positive mood among domestic and international investors,” SMC Global‘s Vice President Rajesh Jain said.

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The total market valuation increased to Rs 56, 35,835.75 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 31,33,086.7 crore on Apr 1.

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While, the 30-share benchmark index Sensex has given a healthy return of nearly 70% to hover around 16,700 level in September against 9,900 level in April.

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The Sensex companies, which comprises of about 45 per cent of the total market capitalisation of all the companies, saw its combined market valuation rise by over Rs 10,00,000 crore in the reviewed period.

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The combined market capitalisation of the 30 blue-chip stocks rose to Rs 25,31,831.55 crore on Sep 18 from Rs 15,31,252.34 crore on Apr 1.

However, the total turnover of the Sensex companies dropped to Rs 1,597.42 crore on Sep 18 from 1,705.52 crore on Apr 1.

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Jain also said that the drop in the volumes is due to less participation of retail investors in the markets, which reflects that the run is mainly on account of institutional money, both domestic and international.

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Meanwhile, foreign investment into the Indian stock markets are likely to cross USD 10 billion-mark by the end of this month.

Huge sum of USD 9.8 billion (Rs 47,674 crore) have already been poured into the bourses by overseas entities so far in 2009.

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Note : For More latest Industry,Stock Market and Economy News Updates, Click Here

Where Are We Heading To? Part 2

Indian Stock Market Growth

From the positive happenings in the economy, let’s see how the stock markets have behaved amidst all this?

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The price charts of many companies reflected that the investors were in a catch-up mode.

This was evident from the stock price trajectory of most stocks, which saw a sharp spike in few days.

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In many cases, the stock prices nearly doubled in a matter of few trading sessions.

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It’s a kind of emotion that grips a commuter when he/she loses a train or bus by a fraction of a second.

When we see a bus/train departing in front of our eyes, we rush towards to it without caring about the risks involved.

What if you hurt yourself badly in the process? But who cares?

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Those days seem to be back where most of the frontline stocks are at their 52-week highs or better, but, still their valuations, measured by various ratios such as price-to-earning multiples or price-to-book value among others are far from the highs of 2008.

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Valuations come with expectations. 🙂

Higher the valuations, greater is investor expectation from that particular stock.

To justify the elevated valuations, corporate earnings have to grow at a significant rate.

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Companies also have to improve the quality of earning i.e. the profit growth has to be accompanied with an equally rapid rise in cash flows and dividends payouts.

But can this really happen? To support this, we have the World Bank statement, who said that India would grow 8.1 per cent in 2010, ahead of China (7.5 per cent).

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The numbers in the survey also suggest India is finally ready to rub shoulders with its northern neighbour.

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The point is, India is better placed to face the economic slowdown as compared to other large economies because of the diversified nature of the economy in which some sectors witness robust demand to mitigate the impact of a demand slowdown in other sectors.

It is clear that the Indian economy is recovering from the clutches of the world economic crisis.

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Even the performance of the stock market has shown signs of revival of investor interest and confidence, both domestic and

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The confidence of FIIs in India started to built up in the last few months which is evident from the FII figure mentioned above and tends to be in upbeat mood going forward.

Therefore, even if economic growth does recover in India, it would be a different than what we have seen in the past.

And to gain, investors will have to offload baggage of the past and look at the future afresh.

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