Posts Tagged ‘copper’

Weekly Update 13th – 17th December 2010

The fall in the domestic markets in the week gone by was really painful. The fall was seen across the board; both mid and small size company stocks were heavily punished. SEBI probed in some companies for price rigging reignited the concerns that there may be some cases which are yet to come.

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On the global front, thiswas the week when most of the major developed markets along with the emerging economies closed in positive. The disconnect reveals that overhand in the markets was more related to domestic issues only.U.S. economic data is continuing to point out that environment over there is improving. A consumer sentiment that reflects the strength of consumer spending rose six months high to 74.2 in the first half of December from 71.6 at the end of November.

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U.S. trade deficit in October shrank more that expected to $38.7 billion from a revised $44.6 billion shortfall the month before. Further more, the expected continuance of Bush tax for next two years which is likely to be cleared by U.S. senate in next two weeks will also help in improving sentiments. Japanese economy saw an annualized expansion of 4.5 percent for the quarter ended 30th September against expectations of 4.1 percent. In order to address inflationary pressures in the economy, China once again raised the reserve requirements for the third time in five weeks by 50 bps.

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The recent move takes reserve ratios requirement now to18.5 percent for the biggest banks. Chinese leaders have also indicated that the nation will shift to a tighter, “prudent” monetary policy for next year. Consumer and producer price index rose to 5.1 percent and 6.1 percent respectively for the month of November as against the expectation of 4.7 and 5.1 percent respectively. Moving ahead, we believe that the concerns pertaining to Indian Industrial growth and in turn overall growth of the economy would not be there after seeing the 10.8 percent growth in IIP for the month of October as compared to 4.4 percent last month. Moreover,we also believe that even for the month of November we could see the Industrial growth picking up close to 12 percent.

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The indicators like car sales growth of 20 percent,commercial vehicle sales growing by more than 18 percent and HSBC Manufacturing PMI rising to 58.4 in November from 57.2 in previous month give support to our belief.In the forthcoming days we believe we may continue to see bouts of volatility in the markets as nervousness is still there. In short term now we think the advance tax figures would help the markets in gauging the profitability of India Inc. as the result season is approaching. Nifty has strong support between 5900-5840 and Sensex between 19400-19000.In commodity section, bullions counter may trade on volatile path due to lack of clear direction on risk sentiment. Base metal counter will take cues from economic data from US. Crude oil further movement will depend on the demand from China, OECD countries and weather conditions in Europe.

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OPEC members are planning to increase output over the coming months. Copper will continue to make fresh high in near term as the global deficit will push its prices to new levels. The outcome of Central Economic Work Conference in China will further guide the movement in metal counter. In agro pack guar complex may remain on weaker side amid weak export demand. Jeera and peeper maytad lower on selling pressure on news of re-sowing. Mentha oil can tumble lower onarrivals. Soya will remain range tracking mixed movement in CBOT. CPO may trade on higher side tracking firm Malaysian CPO.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 11th – 15th October

International gold hit yet another new high and tested $1364 as the US currency slumped to fresh 15-and-a-half year lows against the Japanese Yen. The euro and British pound both neared 8-month highs vs. the dollar after their central banks failed to cut rates or expand their quantitative easing. The shiny metal continued breaching new high records by taking advantageof concerns surrounding global recovery which raise speculations that central banks will add tostimulus to bolster growth. This time domestic gold and silver also rose to their fresh highs on MCX. Base metal prices traded on the mixed note with lead prices ending in red while copper along with aluminium and nickel prices managing to end in the green territory.

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The base metal prices remained volatile mainly due to weakness in the dollar index and profit taking at highlevels. In energy counter crude oil remained volatile as prices got support by a weaker dollar and investors’ demand for higher-yielding assets. Prices were also under pinned by the drop in motor gasoline and distillates inventories off setting the buildup in crude inventories.Regarding agro commodities, oil seeds and edible oil counter revived on some bargain buying atlower level amid falling dollar index. Strong buying by soyabean millers together with rising soyameal export also encouraged buying in both spot and future market. Fresh arrivals in Haryana and Rajasthan washed out the profit of guargum and guarseed futures. Prices were also discouraged by strong production estimates of guarseed in the current year.

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Despite tight supply position against strong demand pepper futures closed the week on negative note on profit booking. Turmeric rose on improved demand. Chilli was sideways with upside bias on mixed fundamentals while jeera and cardamom moved southward. Receding stocks in major mandies accompanied with strong export demand by traders and exporters gave terrific rise tothe mentha prices. Even in future market it breached the level of 950 on MCX. Mint exports inApril- August, 2010 surged by 2 percent to `723.95 lacs against 595.57 lacs reported last year inthe same period. Chana appeared shy to breach the resistance of 2300 and it closed down on profit booking at higher levels.

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COMMODITY WEEKLY COMMENTARY 4th – 8th October

Once again international gold prices tested their new highs last week as prices breached the psychological level of $1300 and silver marked the 30 year high on COMEX division. However local gold prices were mostly remained sideways during the week amid stronger rupee and profit booking which limited the upside in prices.

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Nevertheless, silver once again overshadowed gold movements and surged high to claim 33000 mark on MCX. In base metal pack copper along with nickel, zinc and lead started the week with positive energy but dull economic data from U.S and Europe economies pressurized the prices in later part. However improved Chinese  manufacturing data once again underpinned the prices and supported copper and nickel to end the week in green zone.


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Earlier, shanghai copper dropped to its lowest in more than a month last week as China’s move to curb property prices dented sentiment, but losses were limited by improving demand prospects and ongoing weakness in the dollar. In energy counter crude oil settled up last week helped by data showing a drop in U.S. crude and product inventories.


Further fall in dollar index also helped the prices to move up. U.S. crude stocks fell 475,000 barrels last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. U.S. distillate inventories fell by 1.27 million barrels in the week to Sept. 24, counter to analyst expectations for a 300,000 barrel build.


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In agro commodities spices pack witnessed see saw moves during the week and remained volatile. Pepper futures ended the week with negative impression amid weak exports and low trading activity. As per Spices Board data, pepper exports from India have gone down by 5% in volume term during April-August 2010 as compared to same period last year. Jeera futures also traded on a negative note during the week on extended selling pressure backed by weak domestic and export demand. Expectations of rise in acreage under jeera crop this season have also supported the down side.

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In oil seeds section soya bean and mustard remained under pressure as factors like bumper soya crop expectation and pick up in fresh arrivals to the spot market led the market to show a negative trend. The chana futures traded on a positive note for most part of the week retreating from previous losses on fresh buying from retail sector.

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ALUMINIUM… “PRICES ON ONE-WAY TRACK”

Aluminium is a silvery white and dull gray coloured, and the third most abundant element in the Earth’s crust after oxygen and silicon. In nature, it only exists in very stable combinations. Due to its strong affinity to oxygen, it is always found in the form of oxides or silicates. The chief source of aluminium is bauxite ore. Aluminum is lightweight, ductile and soft. Its density is only 1/3 of steel. Aluminum is resistant to weather, common atmospheric gases and a wide range of liquids.

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Global Scenario

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Aluminium ore, bauxite, occurs mainly in tropical and sub-tropical areas – Africa, West Indies, South America and Australia. The leading producing countries are United States, Russia, Canada, the European Union, China, Australia, Brazil, Norway, South Africa, Venezuela, the Gulf States (Bahrain and United Arab Emirates), India and New Zealand. Together they constitute more than 90 percent of the world primary aluminium production. The largest aluminium markets are North America, Europe and East Asia.

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Indian Scenario

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India is the fifth largest producer of aluminium in the world with production capacity of about 3 per cent of the world. India’s reserves are estimated to be 7.5 per cent of the total deposits. India is self dependent for aluminium supply and exports about 82,000 tonnes annually. The primary Indian aluminium producers were BALCO, NALCO, HINDALCO and MALCO.

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India’s per capita consumption of aluminium is 1 kg as against 30 kg in the developed world.

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World Aluminium Markets

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LME, TOCOM, SHFE and NYMEX are the important international markets that provide direction to the aluminium prices.In 2009, aluminium prices gained about 40% with the global combination of stimulus packages and the rapid recovery in demand in emerging markets. The prices and inventory level of metal in international market, such as LME and SHFE, influences the domestic market.

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Facts & Figures

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·World aluminum output in March rose 13% on the month to 2.045 million metric tonnes, according to figures released by the International Aluminum Institute.

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·Primary aluminium stocks in China, the world’s top consumer and producer of the metal, have risen more than 45 percent from January on increased production.

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·Brazil’s output of primary aluminum dropped 0.9% on the year in March to 131,700 metric tons.

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·Global demand rose by 29% in January and February compared with the very depressed levels recorded a year ago.

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Price Movement

Despite the poor news stemming from Euro weakness on Greek debt woes and monetary tightening in China, aluminium halted its downturn and traded sideways for most of last week.

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Most other base metals also traded sideways to higher last week, and aluminium continues to be strongly correlated with copper. Swollen inventories are no longer a problem for the aluminium market, as global demand is helping to push up alumininum prices (arrow line).

COPPER…WHAT’S REALLY DRIVING THE PRICE?

Copper is a reddish brown non-ferrous mineral which has been used for thousands of years by many cultures. The metal is closely related with silver and gold, with many properties being shared among these metals. With world population and development on the increase, demand for copper is expected to continue to build well beyond current annual consumption to:

•conducting electricity and heat

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•communications

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•transporting water and gas

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•roofing, gutters and downspouts

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•protecting plants and crops, and as a feed supplement and

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•Making statues and other forms of art.

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World copper consumption is expected to grow 5.4 per cent this year, led by China which is expected to buy nearly 40 per cent of global output, industry experts told the World Copper Conference on 8th April, 2010.

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Primary copper production starts with the extraction of copper bearing ores. There are three basic ways of copper mining: surface, underground mining and leaching.

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Open-pit mining is the predominant mining method in the world. These are the top ten ranked mining countries.

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IN THE GLOBALEXCHANGES

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Three commodity exchanges provide the facilities to trade copper: The London Metal Exchange (LME), the Commodity Exchange Division of the New York Mercantile  Exchange (COMEX/NYMEX) and the Shanghai Metal Exchange (SHME). In these exchanges, prices are settled by bid and offer, reflecting the market’s perception of supply and demand of a commodity on a particular day. Exchanges also provide for warehousing facilities that enable market participants to make or take physical delivery of copper in accordance with each exchange’s criteria.

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FACTS

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The average LME futures price for March 2010 was US$7,790 per tonne, almost double from the March 2009 average of US$4,040 per tonne. The 2010 high and low copper prices through the end of March were US$7,870 and US$7,265 per tonne, respectively. As of the end of March 2010, copper stocks held at the major metal exchanges LME, totalled 514325 tonnes.

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ICGS PREDICTIONS

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As per ICSG press release on 1st February 2010 & based on existing facilities and announced project developments, annual mine production capacity in the period 2009-2013 is expected to grow at an average rate of around 4.3% per year (%/yr) to reach 23.1 Mt in 2013, an increase of around 3.6 Mt (19%) from that in 2009.

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CURRENT SCENARIO

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Copper hit a 20-month high above $8,000 a tonne on 6th April,2010, after reports showed manufacturing expanded in India, the US and Europe, as well as China, and after US payrolls expanded by the most in three years. Most gains were driven by upbeat employment data out of the U.S., which led markets to view the state of the world’s largest economy in a more positive light. Slow but sure decreases in LME inventories provided added signs of a recovering physical market. Again, pulling back from a 20-month high copper looks uncomfortable at $7850 along with copper futures at MCX tracking overseas markets and a firm rupee.

Commodity Weekly Commentary 5th-9th April

In the week gone by interesting moves were witnessed in gold futures. Gold prices surged high on international bourses while strong rupee kept domestic gold prices under check. International gold futures ended the first quarter with a positive note on buying driven by volatile currencies, firm stock markets and oil as well as euro zone debt but it struggled to sustain gains since hitting a record above $1,200 an ounce last December.

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The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust said that its holdings stood at 1,129.823 tonnes as of March 31, 2010. Even, silver showed smart gains on international as well as on domestic exchanges. In base metal pack; copper futures hit 20-month highs last week, starting the second quarter in upbeat mood as improving demand sentiment and investor cash supported metals.

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Falling LME inventories helped aid sentiment in recent weeks, with copper stocks dipping 1,875 tonnes to 512,450 tonnes, having hit 6-1/2 year highs at 555,075 tonnes in mid-February. Nickel stood as outperformer last week among all the base metals as prices rose 34.9 percent in the first quarter of this year, outperforming other metals traded on the LME.

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The buying was triggered by expectations of stronger demand from stainless steel mills. In energy counter;  crude oil futures hit their highest level this year and posted the loftiest settlement for a front-month crude  contract in almost 1.5 years as a weakening dollar attracted buying.

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Bearish trend was witnessed in most of agri commodities in the week gone by. Guar pack futures fell last week tracking weakness in the spot market, hopes of normal monsoon rains in 2010 and sufficient stocks. The movement in guar seed is largely driven by the monsoon report as it is a rain-fed crop.

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However, in top producer Rajasthan, output is likely to drop by 80% to 241,000 tonnes in 2009/10 as scanty  rains trimmed area and yields. Profit booking at higher levels, drop in spot prices and rising arrivals  kept chana futures under check last week. In oil seeds section; soya bean and soya oil futures also  tad down tracking losses in the U.S. market, while rapeseed traded sideways tracking weakness in soya  market on output concerns.

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Traders are now speculating that output would be lower for mustard than the estimates considering the arrivals in spot market. In spices pack; jeera and chilli prices settled in red zone while pepper futures surged high for the third consecutive week due to extended bargain buying on the exchange platform. The factors supporting the rise in prices are firm rates in the international markets and active buying of exchange because of tight supply situation in the physical markets.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Bulls added more strength to precious metals and base metals while energy and most of the agro commodities back pedaled during the last week. Fear of crisis in Dubai resulted in more capital inflow in precious metals, which resulted in nonstop seven week rally in gold.

It made a high of 18294 and $1226.40 on MCX and COMEX respectively. However, in the later part of the week, we saw a halt in rally and prices corrected marginally on Friday. On Friday, December contract expired on MCX, because of which it traded down. Silver followed the footsteps of gold.

Many base metals made higher trading range last week on improvement of economic releases, except nickel. Lead performed better on technical support. Similar to precious metals, base metals saw profit booking on Friday. Red metal copper fell from its 14 months high.

After the release of U.S. inventory data, which showed crude and gasoline inventories jumped last to last week, crude tumbled down. It breached the mark of $76 per barrel last week. Natural gas also slipped for the same reason of inventory rise amid low demand. Guar pack traded sideways to bearish bias in the week gone by.

Upside movement was capped in prices as investors booked their profits at higher levels. However, slack demand in physical market also added bearish sentiment to the market. In spices pack; pepper, jeera and turmeric along with chilli got hammered and settled in red territory.

Chilli futures settled down for the fourth consecutive week on account of reducing participation in the physical market. Harvesting of fresh produce has already been started and the ongoing dry weather is favorable for the post harvesting activities.

Turmeric prices once again settled down as demand is not picking up and traders are waiting for the arrival of fresh stock which may add bearish momentum to the trend. After witnessing three week rally, pepper prices cooled down in the week gone by on an account of profit taking and continuity of weak export demand.

Jeera futures which got under pinned and gained for seven straight weeks also took a breath of relief and settled down in absence of fresh cues due to closure of major spot market at Unjha for some local festivals.

Lack of buying activity on the futures platform also led to the fall in prices. In oil seeds section; soya bean futures started the week with positive note but later on some profit booking at higher levels pressurized prices to settle near the opening price. Mustard seed futures ended the week on positive note on firm demand in spot market.