Posts Tagged ‘central banks’

Weekly Update 11th – 15th October 2010

Beside Indian market all global markets closed in green in the week gone by on the expectation of policy easing by developed nations. Central banks resorting to purchase of debt and currency intervention in developedeconomies is flooding markets with liquidity and funds are flowing to Asia for higherreturns. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has signaled that Fed may announce thepurchase of more Treasuries as soon as their next policy meeting in November in aneffort to boost growth and reduce an unemployment rate.

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The Bank of Japan said this week it will establish a 5 trillion yen ($61 billion) fund to buy government bondsand other assets. It also cut its benchmark overnight interest rate for the first timesince 2008, dropping it to a range of zero to 0.1 percent. Joining the league European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet too said that ECB policymakers are in the “same mood” as a month ago and for now remain committed tophasing out their unlimited lending program.With the economic activity gaining pace, it is believed that Indian market wouldcontinue to see overseas buying. Moreover Indian government plans to raise $8.9billion in the year ending March 31 selling state assets including Coal India, Steel Authority of India Ltd. and Indian Oil Corp. thereby giving more investment opportunities to investors.

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While many developed nations are intervening in the currency markets in order tostem the appreciation in the currency, Indian Finance minister is of the opinion thatthe situation has not gone to an extent at which there is a need to restrict portfolio or foreign direct investment. As a matter of fact Indian rupee gained 4.5 percent inSeptember. Finance Minister said “We should try to engage the countries innegotiations and build up a consensus through which the matter can be resolved andit cannot be resolved through confrontation.” The International Monetary Fundraised its 2010 economic growth forecast for India to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent,citing strengthening local consumer demand.

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Since we have already seen a huge run up in the broader indices meaning moreparticipation coming from large cap stocks so now going forward we may expectmore activity in mid and small cap stocks. The result season is starting in the comingweek and corporate would give their guidance for the rest of the year which wouldset the future undertone of the markets. Nifty has support between 5950-5870 and Sensex between 19640-19200 levels.What a stunning rally gold has enjoyed recently on fear of inflation. It has hit many records in fewer days.

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Silver was not behind, it made life time high of `34898 on MCX and breached the mark of `35000 in spot market. Talk of quantitative easing by US and rate cut by BoJ are creating anxiety over currency devaluation and long-terminflation is keeping gold and silver on remarkable run up. After witnessing the bigswings of both side, we can say that trend of crude oil is little bit in indecision mode.However, bias should be on upside. Michigan Confidence, CPI and advance retailsales data of US may further provide the direction to metals and energy. Industrialmetals which have made upper trading range last week, are likely to trade up onweakening dollar index.

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At 19.95%, Food Prices at 10-yr High

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates across the globe.

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At 19.95%, food prices at 10-yr high

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At 19.95%, food prices at 10-yr high

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“Save people from price rise” cry got louder with a parliamentary panel asking the Manmohan Singh government to act on speculative trading and hoarding of commodities.

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He was also asked by panel to end the diversion of agriculture land for manufacturing,  as food prices rose to a decade-high of 19.95% for the week ended December 5.

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Prices, mainly that of food articles, are zooming because of a fall in production due to the worst monsoon in about three decades.

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The supply shortfall is getting amplified, with traders pushing up prices with cheap money, as central banks, including India’s, are keeping policy rates at record lows to prevent economies from falling into depression.

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Potato prices more than doubled in the week ended December 5 from a year earlier, vegetable prices climbed 41.09%, pulses price rose 40.1% and wheat advanced 13.9%, the government data showed.

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In Other major Commodities Updates, Sugar output in India has declined owing to drought in India.

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Drought lowers sugar production by 9.6% :

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Sugar output in India, the biggest grower after Brazil, fell 9.6% in the first two months of the season that began 1 October, said an official at the Indian Sugar Mills Association.

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Mills produced 1.7 million tones (mt), down from 1.88mt a year ago, as drought hurt the cane crop and a price dispute delayed crushing, the official said.

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He didn’t want to be identified as the information was not public.

Mills reported lower sugar recovery than a year earlier, he said.

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Separately, the government has asked states to help lift stocks of imported sugar, which have filled up warehouses, junior farm minister K.V. Thomas said on Thursday.

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IMF Sells 200 Tonnes of Gold to RBI

Gold-surges-alltime-high

IMF Sells 200 Tonnes of Gold to RBI

The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for $6.7 billion in order to shore up the Fund’s finances to enable it to boost the concessional lending to the world’s poorest countries.

This sale of gold to India represents almost half of 403.3 tonnes of total sales volume, which was approved by the IMF Executive Board September 18.

IMF said that the transaction involved daily sales, which were phased over a period of two-week during October 19-30.

The price at which the each daily sale was conducted was set on the basis of market prices prevailing that day, it said.

This deal will increase India’s gold holdings to the tenth largest among the Central banks.

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“I strongly welcome this transaction with the Reserve Bank of India,” Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated.

“This transaction is an important step toward achieving the objectives of the IMF”s limited gold sales programme, which are to help put the Fund”s finances on a sound long-term footing and enable us to step up much-needed concessional lending to the poorest countries.”

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The IMF, which currently holds 3,217 tonnes of gold, is the third-largest official holder of the precious metal after the US and Germany.


The IMF has made gold sales a key element of its new income model aimed at lowering its dependence on lending revenue to cover expenses.


Under the Fund’s Articles of Agreement, all gold sales must be conducted at prices based on market prices, including direct sales to official holders as in the case of this transaction with India, the IMF said.


The Group of 20 key developed and developing countries, at their April summit in London, agreed the gold sales should allow the IMF to offer favourable conditions on loans to the poorest countries.


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income model

Coming ‘Diwali’ – Gold Prices Set to Reach Over, Rs 16,000 level :)

Gold prices are again ready for a good rally and is likely to reach over Rs 16,000 level before 'Diwali'.

Gold prices are again ready for a good rally and is likely to reach over Rs 16,000 level before 'Diwali'.

After taking a brief consolidation, gold prices are again ready for a good rally and is likely to reach over Rs 16,000 level before ‘Diwali’.

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According to experts, gold prices have declined for a short period last week as the precious metal dipped following a counter rally taken by the dollar.

However, the US dollar index has again started showing weakness and today dipped by 0.6 per cent at 76.54 level, which will be positive for the gold price, SMC Global’s Rajesh Jain said.

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He said gold is likely to reach 1,020 dollar an ounce (28.34 grams) level in the international markets before ‘Diwali’.

However, in the domestic market the rising trend is likely to be capped with strengthening of Rupee against the US dollar, he added.

In the domestic market the prices are likely to be slightly over Rs 16,000 per 10 grams level, Jain said.

He said, the Rupee will keep on strengthening as the equity markets are performing well, which will encourage the Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to bring in more money.

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Today, the gold was trading at Rs 15,585 per 10 grams, while in the global markets it was at $1,001 an ounce.

Meanwhile, independent analysts have remarked that the bull run in gold will continue as the various monetary and fiscal stimulus programs have failed to boost the world economy, feeding through to a dis-inflationary conditions.

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The US dollar, which is considered a safe haven, softens due to the weakening economic condition.

As dollar declines, many investors and central banks continue to hold gold as their safe haven to protect themselves from unforeseen global economic shocks, boosting the demand for the yellow metal.

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