Posts Tagged ‘capital flows’

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance – Part 3

Just an extension of our previous blog “RBI, Monetary Projections And Indian Economy


RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance - Part 3

In this Blog we would touch upon the aspects as that of RBI’s Monetary Policy Stance and few more facts which carries direct or indirect connection with the RBI Policies.

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For example, business confidence index ,industrial recovery status, overall consumption and investment, export-imports status etc;

The True Facts:

So far business confidence has also improved, and demand conditions seem to have picked up, as seen by better order book and increased capital finance requirements.

Industrial recovery seems to be on its way with 5.8% growth in IIP during April-August ’09.

A revival in capital flows, and stronger performance of the core infrastructure sector (4.8% for April-August ’09) seems to be indicating a slight recovery in the economy.

However, there has been a deceleration in growth of private consumption and investment demand, and raw material prices are expected to rise on account of inflationary pressures.

The deficient monsoon could also reduce rural demand.

First quarter earnings of corporates reflect a decline in sales, and non-food credit growth has decelerated, with credit card and consumer durables related credit turning negative.

Exports have continued to decline as external demand dependent services remain sluggish.

The economy is showing some signs of recovery, while a rising CPI has now pushed WPI into the positive territory, mainly on account of higher food prices.

The RBI’s stance will thus have to manage the trade-off inflationary pressures between supporting growth and controlling .

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Monetary Policy Stance

On the basis of the above overall assessment, the stance of monetary policy for the remaining period of 2009-10 will be as follows:

– Keep a vigil on the trends in inflation and be prepared to respond swiftly and effectively through policy adjustments to stabilize inflation expectations.

Monitor the liquidity situation closely and manage it actively to ensure that credit demands of productive sectors are adequately met while also securing price stability and financial stability.

-Maintain a monetary and interest rate regime consistent with price stability and financial stability, and supportive of the growth process.

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Stay Tuned for more on the topic.

We would cover Analysis view from the Analyst with respect to the monetary point of view.

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India To Press For Stimulus Package Continuance at G-20 Summit !

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India will seek continuance of the stimulus package that was devised to get the global economy out of the worst crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s at the G-20 Summit in Pittsburgh .

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Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who leads the Indian delegation at the summit being hosted by President Barack Obama, will voice developing countries views that the developed countries should return to the trend growth and stabilization of the banking and financial sectors.

Such measures affects exports, capital flows and investment of the developing economies.

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Indian PM is going to pitch strongly against any attempts at protectionism and advocating reforms of the international financial institutions in this G 20 Summit .

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Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia, National Security Adviser M K Narayanan, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla are among the members of the Indian delegation which attending the summit.

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This Summit will also be attended by world leaders including British Prime Minister, German Chancellor, French President  among others.

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The summit represents 90 per cent of the world’s GDP, 80 per cent of the world trade and two-thirds of humanity.

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The summit is important for emerging economies like India, which have been affected by the global economic crisis not of its making, to tell the world that there was need to continue the stimulus package that was agreed at the Washington summit last November and a decision to pump in USD 1.1 trillion was decided at the London Summit in April last.

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Indian delegation are of view that the continuance of the stimulus package was in the interest of the poor countries and the emerging economies and developed economies should not adopt any strategy to exit from it.

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India will voice strongly the need for avoiding the temptation to resort to protectionism by the developed countries under the present crisis.

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