Posts Tagged ‘bulls’

Weekly Update 6th-10th September 2010

Stocks rallied this week as the manufacturing in U.S. and China expanded at faster pace reassured investors about the economic recovery. The ISM manufacturing increased to 56.3 for a sizable eight tenths gain from July.

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China’s PMI rose to 51.7 from 51.2, signaling that the economy’s slowdown is stabilizing. In U.S. payroll jobs in August slipped 54,000 after falling a revised 54,000 in July for the third straight month but there was a moderate gain in the private sector.

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Government jobs dropped 121,000 while private non farm employment continued to rise, gaining 67,000 in August. Also on the positive side, wages were up. President Barack Obama said there is “no quick fix” for the economy and will unveil new ideas next week to boost growth and hiring. Chief of Bank of Japan said that the bank is ready to take more actions after giving 10 trillion yen ($118 billion) to a bank loan facility and the nation’s Prime Minister said that the Japanese government is ready to take “bold” action on the currency if necessary which is threatening its exporters.

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India being second biggest emerging economy showed yet another strong performance in terms of growth. The economy saw an expansion of 8.8 percent in the first quarter ending June, the fastest pace in two and a half years giving an imprint of strong underlying domestic demand. Trade data showed that exports rose for the ninth straight month in July 2010, growing an annual 13.2% to $16.24 billion and Imports for the month rose 34.3% to $29.17 billion, widening the country’s trade deficit to $12.93 billion. Exports during the April-July period rose 30.1% to $68.63 billion.

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Being a short trading week, stock specific activity is expected to rule in the market as investors would like to see Industrial Production numbers for the month of July scheduled to be released on Friday, 10th September. In line with rebound in the global indices, Indian market too witnessed sharp bounce after testing the major support zone of 5350 levels. As expected, dollar index traded with the negative bias throughout the week and likely to be sideways to negative bias in the coming days as well. Keeping in the mind all the cues, one may stay long with trailing stop loss strategy or book partial profit on rally to avoid any notional loss. Nifty has support between 5400-5350 and Sensex between 17800-17600 levels.

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Currency play together with some improvements in economic releases invited bulls in industrial metals while energy pack could not retort positively. Bullions continued to rock on investment demand. Now there is a state of confusion on the subject of the further trend in commodities. Dollar index has taken the crucial support of 82 and moved northward. Base metals gave knee jerk reaction on weak unemployment data of US at the same time as precious metals are trading near multi week high. Various interest rate meeting may inject volatility in commodities. Buying is still intact but upside appears to be limited in short run in base metals. Furthermore, base metals and crude oil are moving in a different direction that is a cause of concern for the market players. It is creating an ambiguous situation and indicating unclear trend of commodities.

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Marginal Dip in December’s Rubber Production

Hello Friends here we come up with the Latest Agri Commodities updates from various parts of the country.

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Marginal Dip in December's Rubber Production

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Marginal dip in Dec rubber production:-

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Midway through the peak period, rubber production dipped marginally by 2 per cent to 98,000 tonnes in December against 1.00225 lakh tonnes last year.

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However, with industrial recovery firmly under way, rubber consumption remains robust, growing 17 per cent to 79,500 tonnes.

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Preliminary indications show severe slippage in Malaysia’s rubber production and India is likely to become the world’s third-largest producer of natural rubber after Thailand and Indonesia.

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🙂

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In Other major Commodities Updates we can read that domestic pepper futures market continues to remain highly volatile and Sugar prices expected to remain higher in the coming month.

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Pepper futures continue to remain volatile:-

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The domestic pepper futures market continued to remain highly volatile because of the tug of war between the bulls and the bears.

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The prices were falling without any co-relation to the fundamentals.

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Spot prices fell from Rs 15,000 a quintal to Rs 13,700 in about a month.

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The reasons attributed included arrivals of the new crop, huge outstanding position in the January delivery and easing of other origins and so on.

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Around 1,200 tonnes of pepper would have its validity expired on Feb 5 and that is expected to be tendered for delivery and thus it might also enter the market.

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Sugar prices may remain firm in coming months:-

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Sugar prices are expected to remain higher in the coming months as lower acreage and poor rains will keep India’soutput at 15.3 million tonnes,

falling severely short of domestic consumption of about 23 million tonnes in the 2009/10 season.

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🙂

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Global Market Outlook 2009 and 2010 :)

SMC Market Outlook

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With markets giving returns on investment more than 79% in 2009 and showing a strong sign of recovery from mid 2009 on the back of strong domestic demand, policy reforms and stimulus packages, 2009 calendar year emerged as the best year for investors since 2000.

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FII’s have once again proved to be the front runners in terms of the inflow, pumping more than Rs 82,000 crore in the Indian market this calendar.

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But 2010 promises to be another testing year as fiscal and monetary stimulus in many of the world’s major economies begins to wane.

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After being in consolidation for most of the month, in the week gone by the domestic markets suddenly jumped back to life and closed at their highest in 19 months as investors rushed to buy stocks on renewed optimism, after foreign direct investment into the nation jumped 60% in the first eight months of this fiscal year.

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The FM`s comments on GDP growth and encouraging cues from global markets also boosted the market.

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Both the indices, Sensex and Nifty made a new high for 2009 on the eve of Christmas, rekindling the festive spirit.

Bulls were in a mood of rejoice as Christmas took Nifty to a new high of 5,197.90.

The year ends with more than a spark of hope, and next year seems to be a stable and profitable one.

However, we believe that markets would continue to be volatile and hence it is important to manage risk in the coming year too.


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For the forthcoming week, markets may remain volatile as traders will roll their positions in the derivative segment from December 2009 series to January 2010 series ahead of the expiry of the near month December 2009 contracts on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

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On the flip side higher advance tax figures by India Inc which suggests better Q3 December 2009 results, may support the market.

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Corporate advance tax payments for the quarter were up 44% to Rs 48,300 crore against a 3.7% decline in April-June quarter and a 14.7% increase in July-September quarter.

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The global developments also need to be seen for any further directions.

Furthermore, food price index data for the year to 19 December 2009 will be closely watched which is going to release on Thursday, 31 December 2009.

The high food price inflation is a major worry for the policymakers as they contemplate a right approach to tame hike in inflation which seems to be more of a supply side issue.

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The next quarterly review of monetary policy is scheduled on 29 January 2010 which may also give some direction to the markets.

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On the global economic front, the US economy grew at a revised annual growth rate of 2.2% in the third quarter, much slower than initially projected.

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Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 5.2 percent from 5.1 percent in October, for the first time in four months in November, an indication job growth may not be strong enough to support the economy’s recovery from its deepest postwar recession.

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The world stock markets are not ready to react on the downside and after every consolidation they are moving up only.

4960 on nifty is strong support as was mentioned in last week magazine and the nifty touched there and moved up sharply.

Even the base metals and stocks are not reacting to the strong dollar.

Till the trend of stock markets is up, one should be playing from the long side of it.

Nifty has support between 5050-4970 and Sensex between 17100-16700 levels.

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New Year celebration may result in thin trading this week.It may impact domestic bourses as well.

Regarding outlook, dollar index will give next direction to precious metals. If it notices a pause in its rally then precious metals may trade in a range or vice a versa.

Base metals will remain volatile.

Gap between lead and zinc should shrink gradually.

Fresh buying in steel may keep nickel at higher side.

If US crude and other inventories continue to decline then fresh buying will stimulate in crude oil.

However, it already saw spiky moves hence upside is limited.

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WEEKLY COMMENTARY

Bulls added more strength to precious metals and base metals while energy and most of the agro commodities back pedaled during the last week. Fear of crisis in Dubai resulted in more capital inflow in precious metals, which resulted in nonstop seven week rally in gold.

It made a high of 18294 and $1226.40 on MCX and COMEX respectively. However, in the later part of the week, we saw a halt in rally and prices corrected marginally on Friday. On Friday, December contract expired on MCX, because of which it traded down. Silver followed the footsteps of gold.

Many base metals made higher trading range last week on improvement of economic releases, except nickel. Lead performed better on technical support. Similar to precious metals, base metals saw profit booking on Friday. Red metal copper fell from its 14 months high.

After the release of U.S. inventory data, which showed crude and gasoline inventories jumped last to last week, crude tumbled down. It breached the mark of $76 per barrel last week. Natural gas also slipped for the same reason of inventory rise amid low demand. Guar pack traded sideways to bearish bias in the week gone by.

Upside movement was capped in prices as investors booked their profits at higher levels. However, slack demand in physical market also added bearish sentiment to the market. In spices pack; pepper, jeera and turmeric along with chilli got hammered and settled in red territory.

Chilli futures settled down for the fourth consecutive week on account of reducing participation in the physical market. Harvesting of fresh produce has already been started and the ongoing dry weather is favorable for the post harvesting activities.

Turmeric prices once again settled down as demand is not picking up and traders are waiting for the arrival of fresh stock which may add bearish momentum to the trend. After witnessing three week rally, pepper prices cooled down in the week gone by on an account of profit taking and continuity of weak export demand.

Jeera futures which got under pinned and gained for seven straight weeks also took a breath of relief and settled down in absence of fresh cues due to closure of major spot market at Unjha for some local festivals.

Lack of buying activity on the futures platform also led to the fall in prices. In oil seeds section; soya bean futures started the week with positive note but later on some profit booking at higher levels pressurized prices to settle near the opening price. Mustard seed futures ended the week on positive note on firm demand in spot market.

Bear and Bull – Part 1

Hello Friends here we come up with our another write up on “SMC Gyan Series” 🙂

Have you all ever wondered that what exactly this Bull and Bear Market is ?

 

Bull markets and bear markets...what are they?

Bull markets and bear markets...what are they?

What are they? What do they look like? What’s the origin of this terminologies?

Lets Talk about it

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When we talk about bull and bear stock markets it reminds us that it’s a zoo out there. And, like any zoo, there are quite a few wild species to be found 😉

The first two are the bulls and the bears.

Bull market is when stock prices are climbing strongly and a Bear market is when they’re languishing.

Bear Market

To be more precisely, in finance, a bear market is a market condition that occurs when the prices of shares decline or are about to decline.

Figures may vary, but if prices decrease by 15 to 20% then the market is assumed as a bear market.

In general, a bear market resumes if the government goes into recession and if the inflation rate is high.

Bull Market

A bull market is a condition of a financial market of a group of securities in which prices are rising or are expected to rise.

The term “bull market” is most often used to refer to the stock market, but can be applied to anything that is traded, such as bonds, currencies and commodities.

Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results will continue.

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Myth About Bull and Bear Markets

One common myth is that the terms “bull market” and “bear market” are derived from the way those animals attack a foe, because bears attack by swiping their paws downward and bulls toss their horns upward.

This is a useful mnemonic, but is not the true origin of the terms.

Long ago, “bear skin jobbers” were known for selling bear skins that they did not own; i.e., the bears had not yet been caught.

This was the original source of the term “bear”.

This term eventually was used to describe short sellers, speculators who sold shares that they did not own, bought after a price drop, and then delivered the shares.

Because bull and bear baiting were once popular sports, “bulls” was understood as the opposite of “bears.” I.e., the bulls were those people who bought in the expectation that a stock price would rise, not fall.

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Stay Tuned for more on this where we would touch upon if bull and bear markets are inevitable and what are the basics investors should keep in mind while trading in bear and bull market.